The artist's impression of what asteroid 2024 YR4 looks like as they approached Earth in December 2032
NASA
NASA downgraded the risk that the 2024 YR4 would hit the planet by 1.5% in 2032. 1-in-67from the height of a 1-in-32 The chance was the best odds ever.
Astronomers discovered that an asteroid was slamming barrels towards Earth in December, and that has since been the focus of telescopes and space agencies around the world. As they collected more data on the exact orbit of the asteroid, astronomers were able to calculate the likelihood of hitting Earth more accurately. The asteroid is thought to be between 40 and 90 meters wide and can release energy equivalent to TNT's 7.7 megatonnes.
According to NASA, the likelihood of a 2032 collision has increased from a coincidence of one-third since it was first discovered. It then moved to 1/67, 1/53, 1/53, 1/53, 1-in-43, 1-in-38, 1-in-32, and now it's 1/67 I did. The European Space Agency has slightly different odds, Currently giving asteroids a 1.38% chance of collision. These changes reflect an increasing understanding of the asteroid path, meaning they may not necessarily impact Earth.
But we are running out of time to predict the risks of asteroids. One problem is that the 2024 YR4 flies behind the sun in April and goes outside from most Earth-based telescope views. It says it limits the amount that astronomers can narrow down their predictions. Hugh Lewis At the University of Southampton, England. That doesn't necessarily mean it's going down before April. It could continue to rise, but in the end I still miss us. ”
Once the asteroid pops out of sight, it is rare to get any more information before it comes back into view in 2028. However, astronomers can look at past data to reveal previously overlooked asteroid observations. Trajectory. The process is already being carried out by the world's space agencies, Lewis says.
We hope that important information about the size and composition of the asteroid will be collected by James Webb's Space Telescope in the coming months, Lewis says. This helps us understand whether an asteroid can make it intact through Earth's atmosphere and whether it can cause an impact or not.
“It helps us to determine what we need to do about it because if it's a stone asteroid, it's a very different proportion of iron metal asteroids,” Lewis said. I say it. Stone-rich asteroids will be even worse as stone-like asteroids potentially split during impact. “Mass makes a huge difference in terms of whether energy and the atmosphere affects it.”
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Source: www.newscientist.com
