Increasing Traffic in Earth’s Orbit Maciej Florow/Getty Images
China has proposed launching nearly 200,000 satellites into Earth orbit, potentially aiming to secure orbital space rather than genuinely establishing the largest satellite constellation.
On December 29, China’s newly formed Radio Technology Innovation Research Institute submitted a proposal for two satellite constellations, CTC-1 and CTC-2, to the Chinese government and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), which manages frequency allocations in space.
Each constellation will consist of 96,714 satellites arranged across 3,660 orbits. This starkly contrasts with the current active satellite count of approximately 14,300, of which around 9,400 are SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, providing internet service. SpaceX has also applied to the ITU for a total of 42,000 satellites.
Victoria Samson from the US nonprofit Secure World Foundation indicates that this application might reflect a strategy of land grabbing in space. “They might be preparing for something much larger,” she suggests.
By raising this claim with the ITU, other satellite operators intending to launch in the same orbits must prove that their operations won’t be affected. According to ITU regulations, at least one satellite must be launched within seven years of the initial application, and all proposed satellites must be deployed within another seven-year timeframe.
“If you apply early and meet the deadlines, you can deter others from launching in your designated space,” states Tim Farrar, a US satellite communications expert. He further clarifies that China’s extensive applications for multiple orbits suggest some uncertainty in their constellation plans, giving them flexibility. “There’s almost no penalty for doing it this way.”
However, should this application be legitimate, achieving such a launch scale appears nearly impossible. In 2025, China achieved a record of 92 rocket launches. To deploy 200,000 satellites within seven years would necessitate launching over 500 each week, translating to hundreds or even thousands of launches annually.
This is not the first instance of spatial land grabbing; Rwanda previously applied to the ITU for a constellation of 327,000 satellites in 2021, yet this did not impede the operations of Starlink and other satellite providers. “Operations remain largely unchanged,” remarks Farrar. “It seems doubtful that Rwanda will achieve such a massive number of satellite deployments.”
China’s proposal underscores the intensifying rivalry among mega-constellation players, particularly among space internet companies vying for a market potentially encompassing millions or more, thus influencing global information distribution. Many entities are racing to catch up to SpaceX, including Amazon’s Project Leo (formerly Project Kuiper), which has launched about 200 of its intended 3,236 satellites. Additionally, China’s state-backed constellations, Qianfan and Wang, have launched several hundred of their anticipated thousands.
“Fifteen years ago, the notion of a single constellation hosting 1,000 satellites seemed far-fetched,” states Samson. “Currently, over 9,000 personnel are engaged in Starlink operations.”
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Source: www.newscientist.com
