A map showing the expected surface temperature anomalies in 2024 if a strong El Niño event occurs.Blue dots indicate areas where record heat is expected
Ning Jiang et al., Scientific Reports
Climate models predict this year will be the hottest 12 months on record as El Niño conditions persist in the Caribbean, Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, Alaska and parts of the Amazon.
“These are places where the risk of extreme events is increased, and these extreme events are really harmful,” team members say. michael mcfaden NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington.
“They negatively impact human health and increase the risk of wildfires. And in the ocean, they increase the risk of marine heatwaves, damaging marine ecosystems, fisheries and corals,” he said. Masu.
Earth’s surface temperatures are currently at record highs in many parts of the world. The main reason is global warming caused by carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. However, in addition to this, the strong El Niño phenomenon that started in mid-2023 is causing temperatures to rise further.
When an El Niño event occurs, warm water spreads across the surface of the Pacific Ocean toward South America. This vast area of warm water transfers large amounts of ocean heat to the atmosphere, causing an increase in surface temperature.
The reverse phase, known as La Niña, reverses this process. Cold water spreads over the surface of the Pacific Ocean away from South America, absorbing heat from the atmosphere and lowering the surface temperature.
This means that the Earth’s average surface temperature typically reaches record levels during El Niño periods and then drops during La Niña periods.
McFadden and his colleagues used a computer model that took into account aerosol pollution and volcanic eruptions in addition to El Niño to try to predict where in the world record heat would occur. Their regional forecast is the average surface temperature for the period from July 2023 to June 2024.
“Even if it’s not exactly timed to a specific season, there’s real value in having this kind of warning,” McFayden says. “It gives us a grace period to prepare how best to protect life, property, marine resources and economic development.”
The research team considered two scenarios: a strong El Niño and a milder El Niño. It’s now clear that a strong El Niño is occurring, and in fact, it’s likely to be in the top five strongest El Niños since 1950, McFadden said.
In this strong El Niño scenario, the research team predicts that the global average surface temperature from July 2023 to June 2024 would be 1.1°C to 1.2°C warmer than the 1951-1980 average. Masu.
this is Equivalent to a temperature above 1.4-1.5 °C average from 1850 to 1900, new scientist This is considered a pre-industrial benchmark. This suggests that the model is underestimating the temperature since it is already above this level. From January 2023 to January 2024, the Earth’s average surface temperature was more than 1.5 °C above the 1850-1900 average, and in January 2024 it was 1.7 °C above this level.
Temperature records have already been broken during El Niño, especially in the tropics, he said. maximiliano herrera, an independent climatologist who tracks extreme temperatures. “This is amazing,” he says. “We are experiencing record heat and it is inevitable.”
topic:
Source: www.newscientist.com
