A recent theory proposes that heavy snowfall might be a contributing factor to triggering earthquake swarms. This suggests that events on or above the surface could impact what occurs underground.
According to a study published in Science Advances on Wednesday, there could be a correlation between heavy snowfall on Japan’s Noto Peninsula and the numerous earthquakes recorded there since late 2020.
This research is among the first of its kind to connect weather and climate changes to seismic activity.
William Frank, the study’s author and assistant professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, stated, “These heavy snow events appear to align with the onset of earthquake swarms. We must consider that climate fluctuations can impact alterations in the stress levels at the depth where earthquakes take place.”
The study does not assert that changes in climate or weather directly cause earthquakes. Instead, it suggests that variations in the forces exerted by water movement below the earth’s surface and the weight of snow can influence the frequency of earthquakes in a particular region.
David Shelley, a research geophysicist with the Geological Society of America, noted that while the study poses intriguing questions, further research is required to validate the findings.
Shelley anticipates that other seismologists will express interest in the study.
“This sequence is a topic of considerable interest within the community. This is the first piece of literature to propose a potential environmental factor,” mentioned Sherry.
Akram Muthanna/Anadolu from Getty Images File
The study analyzed thousands of earthquakes on Japan’s Noto Peninsula, situated in the Sea of Japan approximately 300 miles northwest of Tokyo. Following heavy snowfall in 2021, the earthquake frequency in the area notably surged, with hundreds being recorded daily.
“We’re observing a tenfold rise in the number of earthquakes within this region compared to the previous trend,” mentioned Frank.
The most significant event among them was a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on New Year’s Day this year. More than 240 individuals lost their lives in connection to this primary shock, according to the Japanese Red Cross Society.
Frank remarked that the timing of the earthquake swarm was atypical compared to a typical series of aftershocks.
Akram Muthanna/Anadolu from Getty Images File
He and fellow researchers compared earthquake patterns on the Noto Peninsula with models of pressure within pores beneath the earth’s surface. This model incorporates ground-based variables that modify the pressure within the underlying rocks, such as seasonal changes in sea level, fluctuations in air pressure, and heavy rainfall and snowfall.
The findings indicated that the weight of the snowpack on the Noto Peninsula raised the pressure within these pores. Researchers speculate that pressure changes induced by the addition or removal of snow weight as it accumulates and melts could destabilize existing faults.
“If there is a sufficient amount of snow, it will essentially compress the ground downwards, triggering a rebound when removed,” explained Frank.
Earlier research has also proposed that environmental aspects could impact earthquake occurrences. In a 2019 study, Shelley and colleagues discovered that the spring snowmelt flowing into crevices near the caldera around Mammoth Lakes in California likely instigated the earthquake swarm.
The rapid replenishment of groundwater by snowmelt and associated pressure alterations seemed to spur activity on fairly shallow faults. Historically, seismic events in the area were approximately 37 times likelier during wet seasons than dry periods.
Such research endeavors have intrigued the scientific community regarding whether climate change could marginally affect earthquake behavior.
“More studies are presenting evidence that, in some instances, a connection exists between earthquake timing and surface processes,” pointed out Sherry. “Considering climate change forecasts, we anticipate heightened extreme weather episodes and prolonged periods of drought and heavy rainfall, potentially making these effects more noticeable.”
Source: www.nbcnews.com
