Jamaica is experiencing severe impacts from Hurricane Melissa, which is forecasted to be the most powerful hurricane to strike the Atlantic Ocean, bringing up to 1 meter (40 inches) of rainfall. It is virtually certain that global warming has intensified Hurricane Melissa.

According to studies, the warm waters that fueled the storm’s rapid intensification are 500 to 700 times more likely to be influenced by climate change. This was highlighted by Daniel Guilford and his team at Climate Central, a non-profit based in the US.

“The figure of ‘500 to 700 times more likely’ is substantial,” Guilford noted. “This clearly indicates that the extreme temperatures witnessed around Melissa wouldn’t be possible without human-induced climate change.”

Tropical cyclones like Melissa derive their energy from warm ocean waters. When storms pass over warmer surfaces, more water vapor is generated. As this moist, warm air rises and cools, condensation occurs, releasing latent heat. This process generates energy that fuels tropical cyclones.

In the central Caribbean, where Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, sea surface temperatures were recorded at 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than typical for October. These elevated temperatures extend to significant depths, resulting in an abundance of thermal energy within the oceans.

As Melissa stirs the ocean, sea surface temperatures remain elevated, bringing deeper, warmer water to the surface. Conversely, if only a shallow warm layer exists, colder water rises, depleting the storm’s energy.

“Hurricane Melissa is shaping up to be a perfect storm. The warm ocean has been rapidly escalating in intensity recently, while its slow movement could lead to extensive rainfall as it makes landfall,” said Lianne Archer, a researcher at the University of Bristol in the UK. “These conditions are largely intensified by the additional heat present in the oceans and atmosphere driven by climate change.”

The combination of strong winds and heavy rainfall poses a severe threat to Jamaica. Reports indicate that three individuals have already lost their lives as preparations continue for the storm, anticipated to make landfall around 11 a.m. or 12 p.m. local time.

“This presents one of the most alarming scenarios,” commented Hannah Cloke, a researcher from the University of Reading in the UK. “The nation will bear deep and lasting scars from this storm, making recovery a challenging endeavor for impacted regions.”

Historical studies of past disasters indicate that such events can stifle economic growth for years. Though some economists speculate a quick recovery could spur growth, this notion has often proven to be unfounded.