overview
- NOAA’s winter forecast outlook calls for above-average precipitation in the Northwest and Great Lakes regions.
- The rest of the country will experience a warm to normal to dry winter.
- Forecasters expect a La Niña weather pattern to develop, possibly by the end of November.
Visitors to Mount Rainier’s Paradise Lodge arrived Thursday covered in snow after Washington state saw its first snowfall this fall.
of The Northwest could experience a relatively frigid winter with above-average precipitationaccording to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which released its outlook for this winter on Thursday.
The Great Lakes region is also expected to experience higher-than-average precipitation, a situation that could lead to more snow. Meanwhile, the rest of the country continues to experience a warm to normal to dry winter.
Rather than an astronomical winter, NOAA’s forecast runs from Dec. 1 to Feb. 28 and is based on the expectation that a La Niña pattern will develop. Natural ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns influence the jet stream, typically pushing winter storms to more northern latitudes and making southern states drier and warmer than average.
NOAA experts say there is a 60% chance of a La Niña event occurring by the end of November and a 75% chance of occurring by January. However, the expected La Niña event does not appear to be as strong, making it more difficult to predict.
“Given its weak nature, we don’t have a lot of confidence, and some of the impacts may not be as widespread,” John Gottschalk of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said at a press conference. He added that when the La Niña pattern is weak, the position of the jet stream can change more frequently than when it is strong. Therefore, the weather can change significantly from week to week.
Rising global temperatures due to climate change are also expected to affect winter.
“Winter is our warmest season for many reasons,” said NOAA climate scientist Tom Di Liberto. “If you look at the long-term pattern, there are clearly signs of warming going into winter.”
This pattern could foster or further intensify drought conditions in southern states, including Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, which are expected to be relatively hot and dry. Drought conditions are expected to be less pronounced in California, and a stronger La Niña event could result in higher-than-average precipitation in the northern part of the state.
“More than a quarter of the continental United States is currently experiencing at least moderate drought,” Brad Pugh, director of drought at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The outlook for winter precipitation does not portend widespread relief.”
US Drought Monitor The proportion of the continental United States is even higher, with an estimated 45% already facing at least moderate drought. Approximately 68% of highland states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Wyoming) Moderate drought or higher.
Severe storms in the West have already begun to dump snow on mountainous areas. A storm that developed in the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring heavy snow to the Western Mountains and Rocky Mountains this weekend.
Falls of up to 40 inches can occur in the highlands of Colorado’s San Juan Mountains. According to the National Weather Service forecast.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
