Spacecraft Predicts Solar Storm 15 Hours Before Impact with Earth

Following the successful testing of techniques using solar group spacecraft, it may soon be possible to forecast significant solar storms capable of disrupting Earth’s electronics by more than half a day in advance.

The Sun periodically emits powerful plasma bursts known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which create strong magnetic fields that can harm electronics on our planet. While satellites and telescopes do monitor CME indicators, their predictions depend on the magnetic field within each CME, making it challenging to identify which emissions will be hazardous.

One of the most reliable instruments for assessing these magnetic fields is found in satellites positioned in gravity-stable orbits around the Earth, known as Lagrange Points. Though these satellites are positioned hundreds of thousands of kilometers away, they exist at only about 1% of the distance to the Sun, which contributes to their ability to provide warnings about the intensity of a CME within an hour of its impact.

Now, Emma Davis from Glaz and her colleagues at Austria’s Space Meteorological Office have discovered a method utilizing the European Space Agency’s solar orbiter to issue earlier alerts. “Solar Orbiters are primarily a scientific mission and not specifically designed for this purpose,” Davis explains. “This is an added benefit from unforeseen alignments during a CME event.”

On March 17th and 23rd of this year, two sets of CMEs were heading toward Earth while the solar orbiter was positioned between our planet and the Sun. Davis and her team leveraged the spacecraft’s magnetic field and solar wind speed measurements to model the internal magnetic architecture of each CME and anticipate the severity of the geomagnetic storms they would induce. Remarkably, the entire forecasting process required less than five minutes, allowing predictions 7 and 15 hours before the events reached Earth.

Davis noted that their predictions closely aligned with the actual geomagnetic strengths observed, which she found remarkable considering the dynamic changes the CME’s magnetic fields undergo as they approach Earth. “The fortunate aspect was that not many unexpected events occurred, and these CMEs behaved rather predictably,” she adds.

She cautions that upcoming storms may not follow the same predictable patterns and that determining the exact arrival time of these storms remains challenging, with uncertainties lasting several hours.

Nevertheless, she underscores the importance of real-time measurements once a CME departs from the Sun. Chris Scott from the University of Reading, UK, who was not part of this research, noted, “It provides an early indication of the potential configuration of the magnetic fields within each eruption.”

However, data from these two events alone are insufficient for fine-tuning predictive models, and further observations are essential before establishing reliable, specialized solar storm monitoring missions near the Sun, Scott concludes.

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