Spring Brings Rising Wildfire Risks in the West Due to Snow Drought and Warmer Temperatures

The unprecedented mild winter weather affecting large parts of the Western United States combined with the most severe snow drought in decades has experts bracing for an intense wildfire season.

Snowfall across nearly every western state is significantly below average, providing insufficient time for accumulation before the spring thaw. Concurrently, warmer-than-average winter temperatures have contributed to a drier season than typical, escalating concerns over wildfire risks and diminishing water supplies.

“Snowfall in Colorado’s mountains has reached a 40-year low,” remarked Russ Schumacher, director of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University.

Schumacher noted that Colorado’s October-to-February period, usually rich in snowfall, has been “by a wide margin” the warmest on record. In Fort Collins, the number of days hitting 60 degrees in winter has nearly doubled, increasing from 22 to 43.

Consequently, Colorado has not experienced the typical snowstorms, with many storms delivering rain rather than snow, particularly in mid- and low-elevation areas.

This issue extends far beyond Colorado. Measurements of snow water equivalent across the western U.S. indicate that snowpack levels are well below average, with some basins recording less than 50% of their usual levels.

“Most regions are below 50% of average, meaning they would typically have more than double the snow,” stated Noah Molotch, a geographer from the University of Colorado Boulder.

Molotch, alongside his team, monitors snowfall across the western U.S. and reports that this year is among the driest on record, with only the southern Sierra Nevada, parts of northwestern Wyoming, and minor regions in Montana, Idaho, and northern Washington experiencing near-normal snowfall.

Numerous areas continue to suffer from a “severe snow drought,” he added.

Research indicates that snow drought and premature snowmelt could intensify the wildfire season during summer. When forests and grasslands receive significantly less snow, or if the snow melts sooner, there’s increased potential for vegetation to dry out and serve as fuel for wildfires.

In Colorado, the recent Blue Bell Fire led to an evacuation order in Boulder last weekend, burning approximately 1.5 acres. Although quickly contained, it highlighted the state’s vulnerability under warmer, drier, and windier conditions.

“The absence of severe fire weather isn’t the issue,” Molotch stated. “These snow drought conditions clearly contribute to a potentially severe wildfire season.”

Schumacher pointed out that climate change could be influencing these trends. While linking yearly snowfall variations directly to global warming can be challenging, it is clear that climate change increases the likelihood of above-average temperatures, even in winter.

“Attributing the lack of precipitation to climate change is complex, but extreme temperatures exhibit a clear connection to global warming,” he stated.

Diminishing mountain snowpack poses a serious threat to water supplies in the West. The snow that accumulates in winter is essential for replenishing rivers and streams that support cities, agriculture, and hydroelectricity.

“This is critical for our water supply,” noted Molotch.

Without a stabilization of snow levels, the reservoirs in the western U.S. risk running dry.

“These challenges aren’t unique to Colorado. The Colorado River Basin is in a particularly precarious position as it is already overallocated, leading the federal government to face tough decisions regarding reductions in allocations,” Molotch explained.

The upcoming weeks could bring substantial snowfall to parts of the West, including Colorado and Utah; however, the current forecast offers little optimism.

Schumacher expressed a growing sense of resignation, as his winter optimism fades.

“As we approach early March, unfortunately, time is running out for a turnaround,” he lamented. “The hope now is that this year will merely be a disappointing one and not one for the record books.”