Severe storms caused by La Niña in Queensland, Australia
Genevieve Vallee/Alamy Stock Photo
The UK's national weather and climate agency, the Met Office, predicts that the Earth's average surface temperature in 2025 will be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, and possibly 1.41°C. This is slightly lower than 2024, when temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C for the first time in the calendar year.
“A year ago, our 2024 forecasts highlighted for the first time the potential for temperatures to exceed 1.5C,” the Met Office's Nick Dunstone said in a statement. “While this appears to have happened, it is important to realize that temporarily exceeding 1.5°C does not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement. However, the first year above 1.5°C It is certainly a solemn milestone in climate history.”
The Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial standards. Most climate scientists currently define pre-industrial temperature as the Earth's average surface temperature between 1850 and 1900. This is because this is the earliest period for which reliable direct measurements were obtained. However, some studies suggest that by that time, the world had already warmed significantly as a result of human activity.
Next year will be among the top three warmest years on record, according to 2025 projections
Japan Meteorological Agency
The expected drop in surface temperatures in 2025 is the result of heat transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans due to La Niña, and does not mean that global warming has stopped. The overall heat content of the oceans and atmosphere continues to rise as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are rising due to increased carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.
During a La Niña event, cold water rises in the Pacific Ocean and spreads across the Earth's surface, resulting in a net heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. When an El Niño event occurs, the opposite happens. The 2023 El Niño helped break records for surface temperatures that year, which will be surpassed in 2024. But El Niño alone cannot fully explain the record temperatures.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
