Thunder and Wind Forecast Predicts Increased Fire Danger Across Western Regions

A surprising recipe for wildfires is developing across drought-affected western states, and it involves an incoming cold front.

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Forecasters predict a significant cold front will develop over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, moving southeast into the mountainous West, potentially producing dry lightning along its leading edge. Such lightning can initiate fires, and strong winds throughout the weekend may exacerbate both new and existing wildfires.

“There is a heightened risk of lightning for southern and eastern regions today and tomorrow, followed by strong winds for several days,” stated Basil Neumelzycki, a forecaster at the Great Basin Coordination Center. He made these remarks during an online conference on Wednesday. This center coordinates firefighting resources for the Intermountain West, an area that encompasses parts of Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming.

“Currently, fire danger levels have ranged from very high to extreme since Friday into the weekend. Some fires are exhibiting extreme fire behavior,” he added.

Forecasters anticipate strong storm developments across Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico beginning Friday.

“During this period, large portions of the West will be highly combustible due to minimal moisture in vegetation, extremely dry fuels, and persistently dry winds,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist from the University of California, Los Angeles, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He expressed these concerns at a press conference on Monday. “I’m genuinely worried.”

Swain indicated that the storm may persist into Sunday across various locations.

“This will be widespread, long-lasting, and occurring at an unusual time of year, amid extended wind events during summer fire season, coupled with significant drought conditions,” Swain added.

The front is anticipated to bring substantial rain to areas along the coasts of Oregon and Washington and west of the Cascade Mountains.

However, Utah is expected to experience widespread wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, according to Glenn Merrill, a meteorologist and hydrologist with the Salt Lake City-based National Weather Service. He noted that the local vegetation is dry and susceptible to fires.

“This culminates in perilous fire weather conditions conducive to swift fire spread,” Merrill commented.

Currently, two significant wildfires are raging in Utah, and intensifying winds could worsen the situation. The Iron Fire, which ignited on Friday, has burned over 37,000 acres and nearly devastated the town of Eureka, which remains under evacuation.

“The fire advanced to the town’s edge,” Merrill reported.

The Cottonwood Fire, near Beaver, started on Monday and has already consumed approximately 60,000 acres, doubling in size daily.

“The rapid growth of these fires is evident owing to the dry vegetation, the combustible fuels, and prevailing weather conditions,” Merrill noted.

This year, Utah has recorded its lowest snowfall on record and is amid a severe drought. In March, an early spring heatwave caused temperatures to soar roughly 30 degrees above average, leading to early runoff.

“Currently, we are relying on reservoir water, and several areas have been doing so for over a month,” Merrill mentioned.

He highlighted that the location of the Cottonwood Fire is at an elevation exceeding 10,000 feet, typically where fires don’t ignite early in the year due to moist soil from melting snow.

“Regions currently burning are usually just emerging from snowmelt,” Merrill explained. “In 2023, there was still snow in those areas.”

Indications suggest a prolonged and challenging fire season in western states. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, approximately 2.8 million acres have already burned this year, which is about 800,000 acres more than the ten-year average for this time.

The center is developing predictive maps to estimate fire likelihood through September. The outlook map displays expansive areas with higher-than-average fire potential, while those below average are not featured.