Severe flash flooding and prolonged flooding are forecasted for Southeastern states as Tropical Storm Arthur moves through the region.
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Tropical Storm Arthur, which developed off the coast of Texas, is the first named storm of this hurricane season, designated when wind speeds exceed 39 miles per hour.
According to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, Arthur’s winds have reached approximately 45 miles per hour, with stronger gusts expected. Rainfall forecasts predict 5 to 10 inches along the Texas coast through early Friday morning, moving into Louisiana, Mississippi, western Georgia, and Florida, with some areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches.
“Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary threats from this system,” forecasters stated on Wednesday morning.
The highest flash flooding risks in the coming days are anticipated from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to Montgomery, Alabama, with the most significant rainfall expected around Mobile, Alabama, as noted by the National Hurricane Center.
Zachary Handros, an atmospheric scientist at Georgia Tech, emphasized that the potential for flash flooding heavily depends on the storm’s movement.
“The critical question is whether the rain ceases quickly or lingers in specific locations,” Handros commented. “Predicting this is quite challenging.”
Heavy rain has already been reported in parts of Texas. On Monday, Governor Greg Abbott declared a disaster due to severe storms affecting 101 counties.
Prior to this month, much of the Southeast, including northwest Mississippi and Louisiana, was grappling with prolonged drought conditions. Although recent rains have alleviated some dryness, the chance of flooding remains as Arthur approaches.
“March, April, and parts of May saw minimal precipitation, but conditions have improved,” stated Handros.
“With more saturated soils and areas retaining water, additional moisture can lead to localized flooding,” he added.
Both Houston and Atlanta have hosted World Cup games in rainy conditions. Houston canceled the FIFA Fan Festival on Monday due to rain but resumed it on a modified schedule Tuesday. Handros, however, believes that significant disruptions during the game are unlikely.
“We currently have a game in Houston, and I believe we are at the peak of the worst weather impact,” said Handros. “In Atlanta, the worst-case scenario is minor flooding and potential traffic delays for attendees.”
Arthur marks the first of what is expected to be a relatively mild hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted three to six hurricanes (which become hurricanes when wind speeds exceed 124 miles per hour) and eight to 14 named tropical cyclones this season.
An ongoing El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the primary reason behind this mild forecast. El Niño generally correlates with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and increased activity in the Pacific.
El Niño often introduces significant vertical wind shear—variances in wind speed and direction across atmospheric layers. As hurricanes typically thrive in low wind shear environments, El Niño conditions can hinder their formation.
However, the existing conditions still allow for potential storm formation.
“Despite El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean remain sufficiently warm, enabling storm development if the conditions align properly, as evidenced by Arthur’s current situation,” stated Handros.
“Ultimately, even if the total number of named storms this season is lower than in previous years, just one impactful storm can make all the difference,” he added.
Source: www.nbcnews.com
