Will the Colombia Summit Accelerate the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels?

In November, nations convened in Brazil for the annual UN climate change summit COP30, with aspirations to develop a comprehensive roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, due to resistance from oil-dependent nations, the final document failed to even address fossil fuels.

In response, Colombia and the Netherlands launched a pivotal conference on the transition away from fossil fuels this week, hosting 57 countries at Colombia’s coal export hub in Santa Marta. This “coalition of the willing” featured not only frontrunners in climate action like the European Union and the United Kingdom, but also prominent oil-exporting nations such as Canada, Nigeria, and Norway.

The summit reinforced the necessity for countries to intensify their investment in renewable energy as a countermeasure to the energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Iran. While this signifies progress, some experts remain skeptical about whether verbal commitments will translate into tangible international action.

Johan Rockström, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, noted that the conference focused on actionable strategies rather than debating the validity of the climate crisis. “This marks a significant move toward implementation,” he commented.

Global investment in renewable energy has doubled, with transitions to low-carbon energy sources effectively replacing fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal. However, projections indicate that without significant change, global temperatures may rise over 2°C by 2100.

Participants of the summit are preparing for a follow-up conference next year in Tuvalu, with a pre-meeting set for Ireland to discuss national roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

While these roadmaps are voluntary, their intention is to encompass both domestic consumption and exports of fossil fuels, which are often excluded from COP climate targets.

At the Santa Marta conference, scholars announced that Colombia aims to reduce its energy emissions by 90 percent by 2050, potentially yielding an economic benefit of $280 billion.

The event also marked France as the first high-income nation to unveil a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, focusing on expanding solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear energy, while enhancing public transport, electric vehicles, and heat pumps.

The proposed timeline calls for a phase-out of fossil fuel energy: coal consumption by 2030, oil by 2045, and gas by 2050. In contrast, many countries only project net-zero targets, which may still allow for fossil fuel emissions supplemented by carbon capture technologies.

The conference aims to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies in the financial sector, redirecting funds toward renewable energy and overcoming the debt crises that hinder low-income countries from investing in sustainable energy.

“We can create pathways to dissolve fossil fuel subsidies and allocate that money towards climate finance,” said Jenny Miller from the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “This can only happen through open discussions among countries about necessary reforms.”

Simon Sharp, of S-Curve Economics, emphasizes that while addressing debt is crucial, the fossil fuel roadmap’s impact will be limited unless there’s a decrease in demand for oil and gas. He advocates for incentives to decarbonize lagging sectors like steel rather than simply limiting fossil fuel outputs.

“Diplomacy is important, but we must engage with the right stakeholders,” Sharp remarked, noting the absence of major developing countries such as China, India, and South Africa from Santa Marta.

The true efficacy of the conference will hinge on the ability of participants to transform their aspirations into actionable agreements at COP31 in Turkey, as emphasized by Joanna Depledge from Cambridge University.

“Are we simply echoing our beliefs?” she asked. “Or will we strive harder for consensus at COP? The essence of COP is to inclusively engage all stakeholders, including fossil fuel-exporting nations.”