Experts predict that 2026 could become the hottest year on record, attributed to climate change and the emerging El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to elevate temperatures even further.

Records indicate that these temperatures will surpass the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels by 2024.

In the latter half of 2026, the onset of the El Niño phenomenon will likely be felt. This natural climate stage, characterized by the warming of equatorial Pacific waters, influences global temperatures. Some predictions suggest a “Super El Niño,” potentially the strongest recorded, could result in unprecedented temperature spikes in 2027.

Renowned climatologist James Hansen from Columbia University warned Congress in 1988 about human-induced climate warming. Current discussions among his colleagues reflect concerns that 2027 may become even hotter than forecasted.Read more here.

Currently, La Niña, the global climate phenomenon that cools temperatures, temporarily mitigates warming. The initial months of 2026 were approximately 0.1°C cooler than the same period in 2024. To outdo 2024, the latter half of this year must be exceptionally warm.

Based on projections from early 2026, Zeke Hausfather at Berkeley Earth estimates that 2026 will be around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average, making it the second hottest year recorded.

However, Hansen and his team believe this is an underestimation. They argue that lowering air pollution, which allows more sunlight to warm the planet, is accelerating global warming beyond current models.

In their recent analysis, they highlighted that sea surface temperatures—which are less influenced by short-term weather fluctuations—are now 0.17 degrees Celsius warmer than in 2023. This increase is more substantial than the 0.11 °C rise observed in 2024 compared to 2023.

“The temperature gap is significant enough to suggest that 2026 may indeed become the hottest year recorded,” they assert.

Not all scientists share this certainty. The UK’s Met Office, as predicted in December, projected that 2026 temperatures would reach 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, with variability between 1.34°C to 1.58°C. Thus, it’s still uncertain if 2026 will surpass the 1.55°C registered in 2024, according to Adam Scaife of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

“Given the temporal uncertainties, providing a probability is wise,” Scaife commented. “Absolute confidence is impossible.”

As the equatorial Pacific continues warming and El Niño probabilities increase, the likelihood of record-breaking global temperatures rises. Yet forecasters still anticipate a wide array of potential outcomes, says John Kennedy from the World Meteorological Organization. “Hansen’s projection is definitive, but it represents one of many forecasting methods.”

In a recent blog post, Hausfather revealed a 26% chance that 2026 will set a new temperature record, alongside a 56% chance of being the second hottest year.

Scaife underscores Hansen’s legitimate concern regarding rapid warming, suggesting that the increased sensitivity of the climate to carbon dioxide emissions may outpace predictions. “If humanity’s climate sensitivity is higher than assumed, we could witness serious implications for future climate patterns,” he remarked.

No matter the precise figures on Earth’s temperatures, the world is likely bracing for more extreme weather conditions as El Niño impacts escalate. Regions such as Australia, Southeast Asia, south-central Africa, India, and the Amazon rainforest are poised to face severe heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.

“A consensus exists that El Niño will trigger unprecedented levels of global warming,” one expert concluded. “The combination of these factors could lead to extraordinary weather events later this year.”