Scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean as one of the most significant climate changes in recorded history rapidly unfolds beneath its surface.
Latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a 61 percent chance of an El Niño event—the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean known for altering global weather patterns—developing by July.
While El Niño occurs every few years, this instance could be unprecedented. NOAA reports a 1 in 4 chance that it will reach “very strong” intensity, potentially categorizing it as a “super” El Niño. Such powerful events have historically led to droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures across various continents.
Furthermore, researchers warn that the combination of these phenomena with human-caused climate change might create impacts unlike anything previously experienced.
“Currently, I estimate a 50 percent chance that this event could be the strongest in history,” stated Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany. BBC Science Focus. “Just weeks ago, my estimate was closer to 20 percent.”
What is El Niño? Why is this Different?
El Niño describes a recurring climate cycle driven by the warming of the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Every few years, normal trade winds that typically push warm water westward weaken or reverse, allowing the heat to disperse eastward along the equator.
A Super El Niño is characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C (3.6°F) above normal in central Pacific regions. Historically, only three such significant instances have occurred: in 1982/1983, 1997/98, and 2015/16.
In 1876, a Super El Niño caused a global famine and is believed to have resulted in the deaths of as many as 50 million people.
Roundy explained that this year, a series of unusually robust westerly winds in the Pacific are pushing accumulated warm water eastward.
The phenomenon mirrors the early 1997 wind event that precipitated what is considered the strongest El Niño of the 20th century.
“Currently, the warm water east of the westerly winds is about half a degree warmer than during the same timeframe in 1997,” Roundy observed. “We have the momentum needed to increase the intensity of this event beyond what was achieved then.”
The ultimate outcome remains uncertain; future wind shifts may partially mitigate the ongoing phenomenon.
“Drawing from historical trade wind patterns, it would require significant surges in severe trade winds to prevent this El Niño from becoming extremely intense,” Roundy added.
In essence, a very strong El Niño is highly likely, but whether it will set new records is still uncertain.
What Does Super El Niño Actually Cause?
The impact of El Niño is felt globally, from declining fish stocks off the coast of Peru to reduced monsoons and rainfall in India, China, and much of Southeast Asia.
“Typically, wet regions dry up and wildfires ensue, while dry areas become saturated,” Roundy explained.
The United States may experience the effects of the ongoing El Niño this summer, with increased rainfall in the Midwest and West, while dry conditions could persist from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast.
As El Niño establishes itself during winter, a strengthened southern storm track will likely result in heavy rain from California to the East Coast.
Roundy recalled that both 1982 and 1997 were “notorious flood years” in the U.S., while the northern parts experienced warmer winters.
A potential advantage of a strong El Niño is its capacity to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, as increased wind shear inhibits storm formation.
Into Unknown Territory
Assessing this situation is not straightforward in any year, but 2026 is particularly complex. Global temperatures have already surged more than 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and a strong El Niño integrated with this elevated baseline could push the climate system into uncharted territory for modern humanity.
“The world has never encountered a strong or very strong El Niño event coupled with such elevated baseline temperatures,” stated Dr. Daniel Swain from the University of California College of Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR). “Thus, unprecedented global impacts related to extreme flooding, droughts, and wildfires could emerge late in 2026 and extend into 2027.”
“There’s a significant likelihood that a new global temperature record will be established in either 2026, 2027, or potentially both years.”
With such elevated temperatures, the risk of wildfires looms large. A Super El Niño “could amplify the risk of extensive or unusually intense fires in humid regions where they typically do not occur, particularly given the rise in reference temperatures,” Swain specified, highlighting regions like the Amazon and Oceania, where peatlands “can smolder for months.”
A December 2025 study published in Nature Communications underscores these concerns. Analyzing prior Super El Niños alongside climate model predictions, it suggests that such significant events may markedly heighten the risk of “climate regime change,” causing abrupt and persistent shifts in temperature, sea level, and soil moisture for years or even decades following the El Niño.
This implies that the repercussions of Super El Niño in 2026 may not simply disappear even if Pacific temperatures return to normal; some alterations might become permanent.
However, Roundy cautioned against overestimating this conclusion. With only three Super El Niños historically documented, predicting future events remains precarious.
“Scientists should exercise caution when extrapolating future outcomes from a limited pool of past events,” Roundy cautioned.
Ultimately, the extraordinary scale and trajectory of developments in the Pacific are underway during a climate phase hotter than any in the post-industrial age.
“Ecosystems have adapted to El Niño dynamics for millions of years, and such extreme events play a crucial role in ecosystem rejuvenation,” Roundy noted. “However, they significantly impact human societies and life overall.”
What remains uncertain is the extent to which the effects will be severe, harmful, or long-lasting.
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Source: www.sciencefocus.com
