Is a Super El Niño Coming? Impact on Weather and Climate Explained

Recent models predict the emergence of an exceptionally strong El Niño climate phase later this year, potentially the strongest recorded.

This event is being referred to as “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño,” which could lead to severe droughts in certain regions and catastrophic flooding in others, contributing to the hottest year on record globally.

“Projections indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm at an unprecedented rate this century,” says Adam Scaife from the UK’s Met Office. “Something unusual is clearly happening.”

What is Super El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon that significantly raises temperatures and disrupts global weather patterns. This occurs when the trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean weaken, disrupting upwelling of cold water and causing warm surface water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific. As a result, atmospheric circulation is altered.

El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeding 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. A “super” El Niño occurs when this temperature rise exceeds 2 degrees Celsius.

The name El Niño, meaning “the Christ child,” originates from observations by Peruvian fishermen who noted that warming typically peaks in December.

While El Niño events occur every few years, “super” events have been recorded in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.

What are the Chances of a Super El Niño Occurring?

Westerly winds during March and early April have carried warm water toward the central and eastern Pacific, paving the way for a significant El Niño event. The Japan Meteorological Agency anticipates that the temperature anomaly could reach nearly 2 degrees Celsius by September. Additionally, models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate a 50% chance of reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius by October.

The National Weather Service estimates a 25% chance of experiencing a Super El Niño by year’s end. If predictions hold that temperature anomalies in the central Pacific exceed 3 degrees Celsius by September, we could witness the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

Currently, signs of El Niño’s development remain weak, and models struggle to provide accurate forecasts, a challenge known as the “spring predictability barrier.” Meteorologists expect to have clearer insights into El Niño’s strength by May or June.

What are the Weather Impacts?

Changes in atmospheric circulation due to El Niño can have far-reaching consequences, including substantial economic damage, crop failures, coral bleaching, and the spread of diseases. “Conditions are chaotic and well outside normal ranges,” states Tim Stockdale from ECMWF. “It’s not solely about increased rainfall; these changes are occurring in areas typically shielded from such storms.”

Typically, El Niño brings intensified storms and wet weather to southern coastlines of the Americas, the Horn of Africa, and China, elevating flooding risks. Conversely, regions like Australia, Southeast Asia, south-central Africa, India, and the Amazon rainforest are likely to face hotter, drier conditions, heightening the potential for droughts, heat waves, and wildfires.

In the UK and northwestern Europe, the effects are less predictable, with El Niño potentially leading to warmer summers and colder winters, although other climatic factors may also contribute to milder, wetter winters.

Even after reaching its peak, El Niño’s damaging effects can persist. Following the Super El Niño of 1997-1998, heavy rains resulted in devastating floods in China’s densely populated Yangtze River basin, claiming over 3,000 lives, destroying 15 million homes, and causing $20 billion in economic losses.

A silver lining is that fewer hurricanes typically form in the Caribbean and off the U.S. east coast during El Niño, as enhanced atmospheric circulation increases wind shear, causing storms to dissipate quickly rather than evolving into major hurricanes.

How Will El Niño Affect Climate?

If climate change is likened to a slowly rising tide, El Niño acts as a powerful wave that temporarily elevates temperatures even further. A strong El Niño could lead to a global temperature increase of 0.2°C.

The last significant El Niño event in 2024 contributed to record-high global temperatures, briefly surpassing the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C for the first time. Many anticipate that a Super El Niño in 2027 could also set a new record.

“As we approach 1.4°C, it is very plausible that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold in 2027,” Scaife noted. “Global warming is inching closer to the Paris Agreement limits.”

Will More Super El Niño Events Occur?

Despite rising El Niño temperatures in the central Pacific due to climate change, long-term temperature averages remain consistent, suggesting that we may not see an increase in the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. Consequently, the National Weather Service has begun to classify El Niño based on the central Pacific’s temperature relative to other tropical regions, although this new classification has not yet gained widespread acceptance.

Both El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, have been observed with greater frequency and intensity over the past 50 to 60 years. One study indicated that climate change has intensified the temperature variation in the central Pacific by about 10%. However, with only 150 years of reliable data available, early measurements are often unreliable, leading many scientists to be cautious about asserting that climate change has intensified El Niño.

“Will climate change influence El Niño events? That remains a complex question,” Stockdale stated. “The answer is likely yes.”

It is evident that global warming exacerbates the consequences of El Niño. As global temperatures rise, evaporation heights increase, leading to higher atmospheric moisture retention and intensified extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods.

“We refer to this as the intensification of the water cycle,” Stockdale explained. “El Niño can cause dramatic shifts in typical precipitation patterns, likely compounded by climate change.”