The UK government is set to implement a ban on social media use for children under 16 by early next year, mirroring a similar policy that took effect in Australia in 2025. This initiative aims to safeguard children’s welfare over corporate profits. However, the effectiveness of this ban is still under scrutiny. How will scientists assess its impact?

As Professor Pete Etchells of Bath Spa University highlights, “There’s no evidence either way.” His team is collaborating with the Australian government to evaluate the repercussions of their national ban while advising the UK government. “This is very new territory,” he adds.

The Wellcome Trust is spearheading research in the UK and is actively involved in the IRL trial based in Bradford. The study includes around 4,000 participants aged 12 to 15 from 10 schools who use an app to monitor their social media habits. Notably, half of these children will face restrictions on social media access. Preliminary findings are expected next year, coinciding with the implementation of the new ban, although Katherine Sebastian from the Wellcome Trust emphasizes that these insights will still inform policy decisions.

This research will enhance existing studies, which often rely on subjective self-reports from children and parents about social media usage. In contrast, this objective approach marks a significant advancement, especially considering that intervention studies are notably scarce. As Etchells notes, “If we’re discussing significant mental health shifts, changes won’t be noticeable overnight.”

Australia’s ban was enacted in December, but its long-term effects are still unfolding. Once a national ban is established, conducting controlled studies becomes increasingly challenging, complicating the assessment of broader social impacts on populations before and after the ban.

For the time being, Sebastian is gearing up for further studies, anticipating some results post-ban. The UK government is expected to introduce this bill in parliament by Christmas, aiming for implementation in early 2027.

The Wellcome Trust is inviting 14 research teams to propose studies on the impact of social media on youth well-being, with plans to fund various approaches to maximize data collection for conclusive results.

Some of these studies will follow existing cohorts, regularly interviewing participants about their mental health before and after the ban. Others may utilize real-time assessments through text messages for immediate feedback. Alternative methods might analyze already collected data, such as hospital admissions or school absenteeism rates.

Although there’s optimism for insights following the ban, Sebastian believes the outcomes may vary. While some positive effects could arise, challenges may also emerge due to the disruption of online support networks.

The long-term impact of this ban may evolve over years, especially as today’s children transition to adulthood without social media exposure. “This is not a finished conversation,” warns Sebastian. “Policies might need reevaluation, shaped continuously by our findings and others.”

Currently, some experts express concern about the UK government’s hesitance to address mental health issues among youth without adequate data. Professor Holly Bear from Oxford University argues that a blanket age ban is a “blunt weapon” and surpasses what current evidence justifies, but acknowledges that Wellcome’s research presents an opportunity to evaluate whether such measures are beneficial, harmful, or inconclusive.

A critical obstacle to effective research and policy implementation could be users circumventing bans. Preliminary reports indicate age verification technology may be fooled by screenshots of video game characters, and VPNs enable users to connect from regions without age restrictions.

A research initiative by the Molly Rose Foundation in Australia revealed that 61% of children aged 12 to 15 had accounts on restricted platforms before the ban took effect, affirming concerns that a similar move in the UK could be a “high-stakes gamble.”

If you or someone you know needs support, contact British Samaritans at 116123 (samaritans.org) or the US Suicide and Crisis Lifeline at 988 (988lifeline.org). For assistance in other countries, visit bit.ly/SuicideHelplines.