Rising fuel and fertilizer costs are becoming a major issue in the 2026 elections, affecting households in the Northeast and farmers across the Midwest. The White House has released part of its kerosene stockpiles in an effort to temporarily reduce heating-fuel prices, while fertilizer costs have climbed because of disruptions involving natural gas, oil and supplies from the Gulf region. The pressures are particularly significant in closely contested states including Ohio, Iowa and Illinois.
Heating oil costs put pressure on Northeast families
In a sign that the race is uncomfortably close, the White House released some of its kerosene stockpiles in an attempt to temporarily lower fuel prices.
“Families are spending much more to fill up their tanks than they were a year ago,” said Mark Wolff, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. The group predicted that families in the Northeast could spend an additional $3.8 billion on heating oil this winter.
Unlike rising diesel prices, which can affect consumers through higher prices for a range of products, kerosene is a consumer good that households purchase directly for delivery to their homes. The effect on voters’ budgets is “very immediate,” Wolff said.
Fertilizer prices rock the Midwest
Rising diesel prices are hurting farmers, but fertilizer costs are also adding to the strain.
Nitrogen-based fertilizers such as ammonia and urea are made using natural-gas byproducts, and some of the world’s largest producers are located in the Middle East. Although some production has resumed, it remains well below the prewar average. Urea prices rose sharply at the beginning of this year.
“If you’re going to plant crops like wheat or corn, you need to apply nitrogen,” said Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizers at financial services firm StoneX.
Sulfur, another important ingredient in some fertilizers, is also produced from oil and gas byproducts. Its price has more than doubled since the beginning of this year because of supply-chain problems in the Gulf region. Linville said farmers who use sulfur-based fertilizers are being forced to make difficult decisions about how to manage their crops.
Costs become an election issue
Those pressures have made fertilizer a central issue in closely contested races in states such as Ohio, Iowa and Illinois.
VoteVets, a political action committee that supports Democrats, released an attack advertisement earlier this month criticizing Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson in Iowa. The ad highlighted her record of voting in favor of attacking Iran.
“Keep track of gas prices. Track fertilizer costs. Farms are collapsing,” the ad says. “And Ashley Henson voted for everything in Washington.”
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown’s campaign aired an advertisement criticizing incumbent Sen. Jon Husted over the high costs of diesel and fertilizer. In recent weeks, Brown has again pointed to Husted’s record of voting for war in attacking his opponent.
It remains to be seen whether the issue will be enough to pull farm voters—who are a core Republican constituency—away from the party and shift the race toward Brown. But with farmers’ costs rising and uncertainty surrounding Iran, there is little relief in sight.
“The farmer is sitting there saying, ‘I have to farm, but it doesn’t matter if I make money or not,’” Linville said. “It’s, ‘How can we minimize our losses next year?’”
Source: www.wired.com
