El Niño, a climate phenomenon affecting the Pacific Ocean region, significantly influenced the economy and climate of Europe, resulting in widespread famine from 1500 to 1800.

During El Niño, the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific disrupts trade winds, which leads to altered global rainfall patterns. The cooling phase, known as La Niña, and the oscillation between these two phases is referred to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This climatic variation poses severe risks in tropical and subtropical areas, notably in Australia, where it can lead to droughts and wildfires, and in the Americas, where it causes increased rainfall.

However, until recently, the focus on El Niño’s effects on Europe was minimal. Emil Esmaili from Columbia University and his research team studied records from 160 famines in early modern Europe, correlating them with El Niño and La Niña data derived from tree rings.

The findings revealed that over 40% of famines in Central Europe during this era were directly linked to El Niño events.

El Niño typically increases rainfall in the region, which can lead to excess soil moisture, resulting in crop failures. Though it did not directly trigger famine in other European areas, it raised the likelihood of famine occurrences by 24% across all nine regions studied.

To better understand this correlation, Esmaili’s team assessed grain and fish prices, discovering that El Niño significantly drove up food prices throughout Europe for several years.

Researchers, including David Yubilaba from the University of Sydney, indicate that ENSO events can still lead to food insecurity and malnutrition in low-income households in regions such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and parts of Africa.

While El Niño continues to influence the climate in Europe, its impact on food security is expected to be less severe today. “Modern agricultural practices are now more resilient, weather forecasting has greatly improved, and markets have become more consolidated,” says Ubilaba.