A decommissioned NASA satellite, **Van Allen Spacecraft A**, launched 14 years ago to study Earth’s radiation belts, is set to crash into Earth on Tuesday.

Weighing in at 1,323 pounds, the spacecraft is predicted to enter the atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to U.S. Space Force forecasts. This will be an uncontrolled re-entry, which means NASA cannot steer the spacecraft; however, they anticipate that most of the satellite will incinerate during its fiery descent through the atmosphere.

As NASA stated, “some components are expected to survive reentry.”

“The risk of harm to anyone on Earth is low, approximately 1 in 4,200,” according to NASA. “NASA and the Space Force will continue to monitor the reentry.” For the latest updates, visit this forecast.

Deactivated satellites, spent rocket stages, and space debris re-enter Earth’s atmosphere regularly. In fact, such objects make uncontrolled descents nearly every day, as reported by the European Space Agency.

Typically, hardware burns up harmlessly upon re-entry, but some parts may survive. Fortunately, with oceans covering approximately 71% of the Earth’s surface, the chances of space debris landing on populated areas are minimal.

Accurately predicting the time and location of an uncontrolled spacecraft’s re-entry is challenging due to various factors, including atmospheric dynamics, space weather, and the spacecraft’s descent trajectory. The Space Force projects a re-entry window for Van Allen A with a margin of error of plus or minus 24 hours.

Van Allen Spacecraft A was launched on August 30, 2012, alongside its twin, Van Allen Spacecraft B. Both probes were designed to investigate a ring of high-energy radiation particles trapped in Earth’s magnetic field, known as the Van Allen radiation belts.

The Van Allen belts are crucial for protecting Earth from solar storms, cosmic radiation, and charged particles from the solar wind. Without these belts, satellites could be damaged, human health could be jeopardized, and power grids on Earth could face disruptions. However, astronauts must navigate through the Van Allen belts to reach space, exposing them to potentially harmful radiation.

NASA’s Van Allen Probes A and B were instrumental in advancing our understanding of these radiation belts. The mission led to numerous discoveries about the radiation belts, including the identification of a temporary third radiation belt formed during intense solar activity.

These twin spacecraft continued their mission until 2019 when they exhausted their fuel. NASA subsequently concluded the mission, leaving the probes in orbit.

Initially, NASA projected that the spacecraft would re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in 2034. However, increased solar activity has recently intensified atmospheric drag on both probes, accelerating their descent. As solar activity rises, denser atmospheric layers can slow down satellites, complicating their orbits.

Van Allen Spacecraft B is anticipated to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere by 2030.

These re-entries shed light on the growing issue of space debris, especially as the frequency of launches rises. Tens of thousands of pieces of space junk, along with millions of tiny orbital debris, clutter low-Earth orbit, the zone where many telecommunications and GPS satellites operate.

Debris fragments can travel at speeds of up to 18,000 miles per hour, posing safety risks to functioning spacecraft and astronauts aboard the International Space Station.