Discover the fascinating world of asteroids with the Virtual Telescope Project, operated by Italy’s Bellatrix Observatory. This platform is live-streaming stunning views of asteroids, including exciting flybys.
While many smaller asteroids zoom past Earth unobserved, some create spectacular displays, streaking through our atmosphere as bright fireballs.
The Chelyabinsk meteor, which impacted Russia in 2013, is the largest known space rock to enter Earth’s atmosphere. Its explosion caused significant damage, shattering windows and affecting the Chelyabinsk region.
The tremendous energy of the explosion was equivalent to 30 times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, according to NASA. The Chelyabinsk meteor weighed around 11,000 tons and had a diameter of roughly 59 feet, making it slightly smaller than asteroid 2026 JH2, though the latter’s precise dimensions are still being determined.
Astronomers leverage a network of ground and space-based telescopes to keep tabs on asteroids and comets that may approach Earth. NASA’s Near Earth Observation Program plays a key role in identifying potentially hazardous asteroids and analyzing their orbits to assess any risks.
One asteroid currently under close scrutiny is Apophis, anticipated to approach Earth even more closely than asteroid 2026 JH2 in the years ahead.
Spanning approximately 1,200 feet in diameter, asteroid Apophis is projected to come within 20,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029.
NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft is set to rendezvous with Apophis in June 2029 to investigate how Earth’s gravitational influence affects the orbits and physical characteristics of such space rocks. This mission follows the groundbreaking OSIRIS-REx mission, which returned the first-ever asteroid samples to Earth in 2023.
Having been in space since its launch in 2016, the OSIRIS-APEX mission faces potential budget cuts under the fiscal year 2027 proposal from the Trump administration. If these cuts proceed, OSIRIS-APEX could be among over 50 NASA missions slated for cancellation.
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Asteroid 2026JH2 Approaches Earth Safely
Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library/Getty Images
An asteroid known as 2026JH2 is set to make a close approach to Earth next week. Estimated to be around 90,917 kilometers away, it will pass at a quarter of the distance between Earth and the Moon.
According to Dr. Mark Norris from the University of Lancashire, UK, “Astronomically speaking, that’s as close as you can get without a collision.”
Only five asteroids are predicted to pass within the Moon’s orbit this year, with 2026JH2 being the second closest.
Discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey in Arizona and the Far Point Observatory in Kansas, 2026JH2 will reach its closest point to Earth on May 18th at 9 p.m. UTC. Norris points out that viewing the asteroid will be challenging for southern hemisphere astronomers due to its brief visibility and its high speed of 9.17 kilometers per second, akin to that of a satellite.
Its diameter ranges from 16 to 36 meters, based on data released by Solmano Observatory. “If 2026JH2 were to hit Earth, it would be capable of causing significant destruction, similar to a city-wide catastrophe,” Norris warns.
Astronomers believe they have identified and monitored nearly all asteroids over 1 kilometer in our solar system. As detection techniques advance, we will increasingly catalog smaller asteroids, like 2026JH2, which can be challenging to observe due to inadequate light reflection, according to Dr. Mark Burchell from the University of Kent, UK. “Such small bodies are difficult to detect.”
If 2026JH2 were to collide with Earth, it could unleash energy comparable to that of the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteorite, which produced 30 times the kinetic energy of the Hiroshima bomb, reports the head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defense Directorate, Richard Moisle.
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During the Neoproterozoic Era (1 billion to 538.8 million years ago), Earth underwent dramatic climate fluctuations, notably the Sturtian Ice Age, where ice is believed to have enveloped the planet. Understanding the geological record and the survival of life during this pivotal event has remained a significant challenge. Geochronological studies indicate that the Sturtian Ice Age persisted for an astonishing 56 million years, far exceeding predictions made by conventional climate models. A recent study from Harvard University proposes that Earth may have experienced cycles of ice-covered and ice-free states during the Sturtian period.
Artist’s impression of ‘Snowball Earth’. Image credit: Oleg Kuznetsov, http://3depix.com/ CC BY-SA 4.0.
“The global glaciation that occurred near the advent of animal life, known as the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth event, represents one of the most severe climate transformations in Earth’s history and likely had profound effects on biological evolution,” stated Charlotte Minsky, a Harvard graduate student, along with her research team.
“However, the causes, severity, and ecological impacts of these glaciations continue to be the subject of intense debate.”
Employing a coupled model of ancient climate systems and the global carbon cycle, researchers propose that Earth was not trapped in a singular, incessant snowball state.
Their simulations indicate that extensive weathering of basalt in the Franklin Igneous Province, a significant volcanic area in northern Canada that likely erupted prior to the Sturtian Ice Age, dramatically reduced atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, leading to multiple global ice ages.
As volcanic activity and other processes gradually rebuilt atmospheric carbon dioxide, global temperatures rose, ice melted, and previously covered basalt regions were exposed once more.
This renewed decomposition through weathering replenished carbon dioxide, triggering another snowball cycle.
The authors contend that this recurring cycle of freezing and thawing driven by carbon dioxide could sustain glacial and interglacial variations for tens of millions of years.
The mechanisms revealed in this study address several longstanding discrepancies, particularly the duration of the Sturtian Ice Age, which was previously challenging to reconcile with established climate models.
This research aligns with sedimentation patterns from that era, elucidating how atmospheric oxygen levels could remain stable amidst extreme climatic shifts.
Moreover, frequent returns to warmer, ice-free states may have been critical in preventing a total collapse of atmospheric oxygen.
“This discovery may elucidate how aerobic life continued to thrive throughout such severe intervals,” Minsky noted.
For more details, refer to the study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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Charlotte Minsky et al. 2026. The snowball greenhouse cycle repeats within Neoproterozoic Sturtian glaciers. PNAS 123 (19): e2525919123; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2525919123
An asteroid, potentially capable of catastrophic destruction, is expected to pass close to Earth next week. The object, 2026JH2, will come within an estimated 90,917 kilometers — merely a quarter of the distance to the Moon.
“In astronomical terms, that’s about the closest approach you can have without a collision,” states Dr. Mark Norris from the University of Lancashire, UK.
Only five known asteroids will traverse within the Moon’s orbit this year, and 2026JH2 is among the closest.
Discovered recently by the Mount Lemmon Survey in Arizona and the Far Point Observatory in Kansas, 2026JH2 will make its
closest approach at 9 p.m. on May 18th (UTC). Dr. Norris notes that visibility may be challenging even for Southern Hemisphere
astronomers, as the asteroid is brief in sight from the North and moves at a pace of 9.17 kilometers per second, similar to a
satellite’s speed across the sky.
With an estimated diameter between 16 and 36 meters, data from Solmano Observatory
suggests that a collision could bring city-level destruction, according to Dr. Norris.
Astronomers believe that they have tracked nearly all asteroids larger than 1 kilometer in our solar system. Advances in observation
methods are expanding the database to include smaller objects. However, asteroids like 2026JH2 remain difficult to detect.
As noted by Dr. Mark Burchell from the University of
Kent, UK, “light reflection is minimal.”
Should 2026JH2 strike Earth, it could result in an event akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteorite, possessing around 30 times the
kinetic energy unleashed by the Hiroshima bomb, warns the head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defense Directorate, Richard Moisle.
David Attenborough on set in 1979 Life on Earth: The making of the series is explored in a new BBC documentary.
BBC
The nature documentary style pioneered by David Attenborough is now iconic, but it wasn’t always this way. When Life on Earth premiered in 1979, audiences encountered a groundbreaking format unlike anything they had seen before.
Initially, Mr. Attenborough’s path as a television executive could have led him to a desk job and eventually to the role of director-general of the BBC. However, he opted for a career in natural history storytelling. He dedicated himself to sharing his passion for wildlife through the ambitious series Life on Earth.
Attenborough meticulously crafted a script for 13 episodes that narrates the entire journey of life evolution before filming began. The production took place across 100 locations worldwide, spanned several years, and required a substantial budget of £1 million for its time. Notably, primatologist Diane Master faced challenges coordinating a shoot with gorillas in Rwanda, enduring weeks of correspondence to finalize details. Preparing for that shoot took an entire year and a half. The whole venture was a significant risk, albeit one he believed would yield substantial rewards, especially as color television began to gain traction—an ideal medium to showcase the vibrancy of the natural world.
Insights into this incredible journey are revealed in a captivating new documentary celebrating Attenborough’s 100th birthday on May 8th. This behind-the-scenes film features unseen footage, excerpts from Attenborough’s diary, and interviews with the team involved in this groundbreaking project. It illuminates their challenges and triumphs while capturing stunning footage, including Attenborough’s narrow escape from a coup d’état while seeking to film a coelacanth in the wild and the young photographer tasked with documenting the unique breeding process of “Darwin’s Frog.”
David Attenborough with mountain gorillas on set of Life on Earth
John Sparks
Ultimately, the risks were worthwhile. Broadcast bi-weekly on BBC2, watching Life on Earth became a cultural phenomenon, leaving pubs empty as viewers rushed to their screens. By the series’ conclusion, it amassed 15 million viewers.
Dinosaurs thrived in colder climates, as exemplified by the feathered dinosaur Beipiaosaurus, which lived between 127 and 121 million years ago.
Mark P. Whitton/Science Photo Library
About 200 million years ago, the North Pole was occupied by a massive landmass, three times the size of the South Pole. This land triggered a prolonged cold spell, allowing dinosaurs to dominate the Earth.
Paleontologist Paul Olsen from Columbia University explains how this “gigantic Arctic continent” encompassed present-day Siberia and parts of China.
During much of the Mesozoic Era, which extended from 252 million to 66 million years ago, nearly all of Earth’s land, except modern-day China, merged into the supercontinent Pangea. This vast landmass later fragmented into two entities surrounded by the only ocean at the time, Panthalassa.
Olsen and fellow researchers have concluded that new geological analyses, including magnetic rock signatures, reveal the ancient latitudes of these formations, linking Mesozoic China back to Pangea. The positioning of continents suggests Siberia and China once formed a significant portion of the Arctic Circle.
Olsen plans to discuss these findings at the upcoming European Geosciences Union meeting in Vienna next month, illuminating how this climate-centric puzzle comes together.
The Mesozoic climate was markedly warmer than today. However, 201 million years ago, during the late Triassic epoch, Pangea began to disassemble, leading to the formation of the Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent volcanic activity coincided with global cooling, lowering sea levels, prompting extinction events, and allowing dinosaurs to rise.
Olsen theorizes that the Arctic’s influence was pivotal. Even in a temperate climate, the vast landmass near the North Pole would experience winter snow and ice. These icy regions possess a high albedo effect, meaning a significant portion of solar energy is reflected away, contributing to cold conditions.
Left: Antarctica today; Right: The Arctic continent that existed 200 million years ago
Paul Olsen et al. 2026
Volcanic activity released aerosols into the atmosphere, contributing to a cooling climate that hindered summer melting in the northern regions. This preserved ice, maintaining high albedo levels and extending cold temperatures, possibly allowing polar ice sheets to persist for thousands of years.
The increase in Arctic ice contributed to falling sea levels, while extreme cooling from volcanic winters led to mass extinctions. Some resilient dinosaurs adapting to cold climates evolved insulating feathers, helping them survive severe winters and emerge as dominant species once global temperatures stabilized.
“This hypothesis is surprising because we traditionally view the Mesozoic era as ice-free,” says Mike Benton of the University of Bristol. “Imagining early dinosaurs navigating a harsh winter landscape is innovative, even if short-lived. During this period of high extinction, volcanic eruptions combined with polar ice may have disrupted dinosaur populations significantly.”
Olsen further emphasizes that the existence of a large Arctic continent has been “hidden in plain sight.” He notes, “Many depictions of Earth visually distort polar regions, obscuring their importance in geological history.”
Nearly a week has passed since the four astronauts of the Artemis II mission returned from their historic lunar journey, yet the crew members shared on Thursday that they are still mentally processing the experience and reflecting on its significant moments.
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“We haven’t had much time to process everything,” NASA astronaut Victor Glover told NBC News when asked about the intense moments during the Orion capsule’s re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere, traveling at over 24,000 miles per hour.
“It was a very intense moment; we had never experienced anything like it before. Every sound, every mechanism was critical,” Glover remarked.
Glover, alongside NASA astronauts Reed Wiseman, Christina Koch, and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen, were the first crew to launch aboard NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and Orion capsule. Tensions surged during the final descent due to a known design flaw in the spacecraft’s heat shield, which NASA continues to evaluate and investigate.
“You could see we were surrounded by fire,” Glover described the plasma as they entered the atmosphere. His initial thought was, “Is it supposed to be that large?”
When the hatch opened amidst a splash, Koch expressed feeling “completely overwhelmed.”
“I just screamed with joy,” she recalled. “It was pure elation—an indescribable joy to be home and welcomed by our team.”
NASA’s Artemis II crew members Reed Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen during a press conference in Houston on Thursday. Ashley Landis/Associated Press
The Artemis II mission marked numerous milestones. Wiseman, Koch, Glover, and Hansen became the first humans to visually encounter the far side of the Moon and witness a solar eclipse from lunar orbit. They also set a record for the longest distance ever traveled away from Earth.
During their lunar journey, the astronauts captured breathtaking images of the Moon’s cratered landscapes and rugged surface, including spectacular solar eclipses.
“When the sun disappeared behind the moon, I turned to Victor and remarked, ‘I don’t believe humans can truly comprehend what we are witnessing right now; it was like being in another realm,'” Wiseman said at a NASA briefing on Thursday.
Among their high-profile moments was when Hansen informed NASA’s Johnson Space Center mission controllers on April 6 that the crew wished to honor their journey by naming two lunar craters.
The astronauts proposed naming one crater “Integrity,” inspired by their Orion spacecraft, and suggested the second crater be named “Carol,” after Wiseman’s late wife who succumbed to cancer in 2020.
Wiseman stated that the dedication was a collective decision made by the crew, with Hansen bringing the idea to him before the launch.
“He said, ‘The three of us discussed it… We believe we can actually do this with the science team,’ Wiseman shared with NBC News.
“Hearing that was the most beautiful sound I’d ever experienced. She was a remarkable individual, the mother of my two daughters, and no one else on Earth deserves such a thoughtful, caring tribute more than she does,” he expressed.
At a NASA press conference, both Wiseman and Glover revealed that since returning, they’ve been engaged in extensive medical evaluations and debriefings with the Artemis II science team.
“We haven’t had the chance to decompress fully,” Wiseman admitted. “There hasn’t been time for deep reflection.”
Immediately following their splashdown, the astronauts were transported to a U.S. Navy ship for medical checks. There, Wiseman requested a visit from the ship’s chaplain, despite not being religious.
“Upon his arrival, I burst into tears the moment I saw the cross on his collar. I had never encountered him before. It’s challenging to fully grasp what we just experienced,” Wiseman remarked during a NASA briefing.
After covering over 695,000 miles during their mission, all four astronauts expressed their gratitude for being reunited with their families.
“In that moment, there was so much anticipation,” Koch shared with NBC News, recalling how he had been thinking about his family from the mission’s outset.
However, readjusting after returning to Earth took some time.
“For the first few days, I felt like I was floating upon waking up; it was surreal and I had to remind myself I wasn’t,” Koch shared during a NASA briefing.
Initially, the astronauts found themselves sleeping close together behind a curtain in the Navy ship’s medical bay, a strange contrast to their spatial arrangements in orbit.
“I requested for the curtains to be opened, but I fell asleep before it could happen,” Hansen recalled.
The crew had no idea their journeys and personal narratives would garner so much attention during the mission.
“I’ve discussed with my family, and they’ve conveyed to me that there has been an impact,” Koch revealed at a NASA briefing. “When my husband looked at me during a video call and said, ‘You’ve truly changed,’ I felt tears streaming down my face. That was our ultimate goal.”
Numerous animals have earned the title of intimidating, but one surpasses them all as the deadliest. Specifically, this creature is responsible for the highest number of human fatalities.
In Hollywood, you might think terrifying beasts like lions and crocodiles pose the greatest danger. Surprisingly, many animals you might expect to be lethal, like sharks, only kill about 70 humans annually.
Interestingly, the most perilous creatures on Earth are often smaller, killing through disease, venom, or other mechanisms rather than sharp teeth. Here are the top 10:
10. Lion – 200 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
The king of the jungle (although it doesn’t live in the jungle) ranks on our list due to its ferocious nature. With a roar measuring 114 dB, it’s a strong warning!
Lions typically hunt in groups, attacking at night with sharp claws that can inflict deep wounds and powerful bites capable of crushing bones. They surround their prey before launching a deadly attack.
Approach a pride too closely, and you may face a charge, especially if they are with their young.
9. Hippos – 500 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Though herbivorous, hippos are aggressive and deadly, thanks to their formidable size and territorial behavior.
With canine teeth that can reach half a meter long and a bite force of 1,800 psi—three times that of a lion—they can easily inflict fatal injuries on humans.
These creatures may attack boats they perceive as threats, overturning them in the process. When threatened, hippos can exhibit cannibalistic behavior.
8. Elephants – 600 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
The imposing elephant ranks among the most dangerous animals due to its sheer size and capability to kill in various ways.
Elephants can trample humans with their massive weight—African elephants can weigh up to 8 tons. Additionally, they can use their trunks and tusks to cause lethal harm.
7. Crocodiles – 1,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Crocodiles are notorious for their fierce nature, causing about 1,000 human deaths annually. Their powerful jaws deliver the strongest bite force in the animal kingdom—up to 5,000 psi!
These reptiles are aggressive and will attack anything that enters their territory, often employing ambush tactics.
6. Scorpions – 3,300 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Scorpions, with over 2,600 species, wield powerful venom via their stingers. Notably, the Deathstalker scorpion carries lethal toxins strong enough to harm even healthy adults.
5. Assassin Bug (Chagas Disease) – 10,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Assassin bugs primarily spread Chagas disease, which poses a significant threat particularly in Central and South America.
This disease can be deadly and is transmitted through bites or contaminated food. Trypanosoma cruzi is the culprit behind this serious ailment.
4. Dogs – 59,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Dogs, often considered man’s best friend, can also pose threats through rabies, transmitted via bites. Globally, they account for the majority of rabies-related human deaths.
3. Snakes – 138,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Snakes are responsible for approximately 138,000 human fatalities each year. Their venom can be lethal, and certain species can consume humans whole.
2. Humans (Homicide Only) – 400,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
It’s a disheartening fact, but when it comes to fatalities, humans rank as the second most dangerous species, mainly due to homicide rates.
1. Mosquitoes – 725,000 Human Deaths Per Year
Credit: Getty
Mosquitoes are the most dangerous animals globally, causing 725,000 deaths yearly primarily through disease transmission, such as malaria.
These tiny bloodsuckers have influenced major historical events. Malaria remains a critical health issue, particularly in Africa, where most cases and deaths occur.
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Amazon to End Support for Kindle Models by 2012
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As the Artemis II crew prepares for their return to Earth, NBC’s Tom Costello utilizes augmented reality to guide you through the re-entry process step-by-step. April 10, 2026
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Geophagy and Mental Health: Earth eating, or geophagy, is recognized by the American Psychiatric Association as a mental health condition unless tied to cultural practices.
Discover more about this fascinating topic at the Museum of Edible Earth in Somerset House, London, running until April 26th.
During my visit, I encountered approximately 600 soil samples collected by the museum’s founder, Mashal. Highlighted were red ocher from South Africa, a source of iron, and black nakumat clay used by pregnant women in India for nausea relief. In the UK, only two varieties are approved for tasting as nutritional supplements.
Luvos Healing Earth, known for digestive benefits, resembles chocolate sprinkles but tastes like unwashed leek sand. In contrast, I enjoyed the milled Mexican diatomaceous earth, a silky, slightly sour flour. Beyond taste, I reveled in imagining the ancient aquatic creatures that once inhabited this soil.
NASA has unveiled stunning images of Earth taken by the Artemis II mission, as the crew continues their historic journey towards the Moon.
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The image captures Earth behind the Orion spacecraft, with our planet beautifully illuminated by the aurora borealis.
One remarkable photo taken by Artemis II commander Reed Wiseman from Orion’s window shows Earth backlit, with the aurora borealis visible in the upper right and lower left corners. This was confirmed by NASA Artemis program deputy director LaKeisha Hawkins during a press conference on Friday.
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Scientists propose a groundbreaking method to alter the course of potentially hazardous asteroids using a giant magnet. This innovative approach, known as non-contact orbital velocity adjustment (NOVA), aims to mitigate the challenges associated with traditional kinetic impactor techniques, which involve colliding a spacecraft with an asteroid to redirect it. However, as of now, this method remains untested, leaving its effectiveness uncertain.
Günther Kletechka from the University of Alaska Fairbanks introduced the NOVA concept at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Texas on March 17th. He focused on the NOVA application for the asteroid 2024 YR4, which was initially thought to be on a collision course with Earth or the Moon in 2032. Fortunately, subsequent observations indicated it would safely pass by.
This asteroid, less than 70 meters in diameter, represents a manageable target for location adjustment. The proposed spacecraft features a large, superconducting magnet that is approximately 20 meters wide, powered by a nuclear fission reactor. A small booster would maintain its orbit around the asteroid, allowing it to stay within 10 to 15 meters of the surface and interact with its iron content.
While a magnet could theoretically deflect a solid iron asteroid, most asteroids consist of smaller fragments held loosely together in what is known as a rubble pile. “It’s a pile of rubble with virtually zero tensile strength, so you can’t push the whole body effectively,” stated Kletechka during his presentation. He cautioned that kinetic impactors could fragment such asteroids, creating debris that may fall to Earth.
In contrast, the NOVA spacecraft would gradually extract pieces from the rubble pile and trap them in a magnetic field at its center. Each collected fragment would increase both the spacecraft’s mass and magnetic field strength, easing the extraction of subsequent pieces. This technique allows the spacecraft to slowly shrink and control the asteroid’s movement.
To delay the trajectory of YR4 effectively, Kletechka estimates that at least 170 days of continuous operation would be essential. Although he believes that this electromagnetic deflection strategy is feasible, he acknowledges significant uncertainties. The precise quantity of iron in 2024 YR4 remains undetermined, although educated guesses suggest it’s adequate. Furthermore, maneuvering a spacecraft so close to an asteroid for extended periods has not been attempted before and poses unique challenges.
“Including this tool in our Earth’s defense arsenal is beneficial, especially since the likelihood of exacerbating the problem is virtually nonexistent,” Kletechka remarked.
NASA/JPL-California Institute of Technology/ASU/MSS S
Thinking about the readers brings me joy. In Red Mars, the narrative unfolds in the current year, even though I penned this novel from 1989 to 1991. Reflecting on how my predictions for this decade diverge from reality adds a fascinating layer to the reading experience.
This phenomenon is common in science fiction. As years pass, the narrative evolves from envisioning a hypothetical future to representing past speculative ideas. It provides invaluable insight into the mindset of that era, which is often difficult to recover.
Exploring vintage science fiction offers a window into the hopes and fears people held about potential realities, transforming these texts from mere inaccuracies to poignant statements about their context.
Consequently, science fiction is a reflection of its time, even when set in the future. It functions as a time capsule, transporting readers to past ideologies and thoughts.
Upon revisiting Red Mars, it fascinates me how well it aligns with the actual trajectory of the 2020s, despite not being an intended prediction. The U.S. and Russia as waning powers working tandem against emerging nations? Check. The ascent of China and India? Double check.
Additionally, themes of ecological and economic fragility punctuated by climate change and geopolitical conflicts resonate eerily with current events. These issues hint at an evolving social order and ongoing discussions about its shape. Humanity has been in a state of upheaval for ages, but change is on the horizon—because stagnation is untenable in any capacity.
I find it intriguing to reflect on the technological insights from the book, noting both predicted advancements and missed opportunities. Some predictions blend past visions with the reality of today. For instance, if one considers the evolution from videotapes to platforms like YouTube, or John Boone’s fictional Dick Tracy-esque watch equipped with the AI ‘Pauline’—it serves as an early seed for the sophisticated AI in my later work, particularly in 2312. Such speculation underscores the unpredictable nature of forecasting the future.
When I crafted this trilogy, we had just begun to uncover breathtaking insights about Mars, significantly influenced by the Mariner and Viking missions. These explorations gifted us a tangible vision of a new realm—one that, while barren, held immense potential.
The emergence of the terraforming concept was timely, raising the question: could we modify Mars to allow human habitation? The newfound suitability of Mars, with its water potential, gravity, and essential nutrients, left many pondering transformation possibilities. These discussions blended speculative fiction with scientific imagination, underscoring the foundational plausibility of my narratives.
Now, after 35 years, our understanding of Mars and human biology has dramatically evolved. The aspiration for human settlement now appears considerably more daunting than before. Recent discoveries reveal that Martian sand contains toxic perchlorates, a potent reminder of the planet’s hostile environment.
Moreover, we’ve delved deeper into how Martian low gravity may impact human health and the harmful effects of unshielded cosmic radiation on our systems. Current proclamations by some billionaires about imminent Mars colonization remain ungrounded in reality. The vision of restoring Mars to a thriving environment akin to Earth’s is, unfortunately, a fantasy rather than a forthcoming reality.
Like many, I share hope for Mars’s future. While I still dream of visiting, I envision it akin to our current expeditions to Antarctica—establishing a scientific base where researchers can thrive for limited periods, akin to crews at McMurdo Station.
These visitors’ lives could parallel characters in chapters 3 and 4 of my book. Their experiences, while fraught with possible health repercussions, would be pursued for the sake of innovation and discovery. Their projects would garner interest, reminiscent of current research efforts in Antarctica—though perhaps not as intensely.
Human presence on Mars would symbolize another chapter in our Anthropocene narrative. It’s arguably the most realistic iteration of a science fiction tale available. If we extend the timeline considerably and achieve a harmonious relationship with Earth, full habitation and terraforming of Mars may one day materialize.
A significant barrier to our Mars ambitions, more pressing than toxicity, is our ongoing environmental neglect on Earth. We must resolve our self-created issues before venturing beyond our planet. Once we establish equilibrium here, Mars will remain ready for future projects—representing a reward for our success.
Keep this in mind when encountering sensational claims suggesting humanity’s imminent habitation of Mars. As the author of the Mars Trilogy, I call such assertions fantasy.
To conclude, while the speculative aspects of Red Mars are compelling, I believe the story’s heart lies in its characters and their intertwining journeys. These elements propel the narrative and shape the reader’s emotional experience.
Reflecting on my time since writing Red Mars, I recently revisited the book, finding joy in experiencing it anew—not as a memory but as fresh reading. That realization brought immense satisfaction.
The characters—Nadia, Maya, John, Frank, Sax, Anne, Michelle, Hiroko, Arkady, Phyllis, Vlad, Ursula, Spencer, and all their companions—jumped vividly to life in my imagination. They are distinct from me and their origins remain a mystery; they arrived with their tales, a beautiful gift. The intertwining of their relationships, political maneuvers, terraforming efforts, and life experiences weave together a rich history, echoing my esteemed teacher Fredric Jameson’s notion of history.
I’m incredibly grateful that this story continues to resonate with readers and I hope you find joy discovering it.
The New Scientist Book Club is currently reading Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson. Please join us and read together here.
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Geoscientists have made a groundbreaking discovery by analyzing magnetic signals in 3.5 billion-year-old rocks in Western Australia. This research reveals the oldest direct evidence of global shifts in the Earth’s outer shell, pushing the origins of plate motion back into the planet’s early history.
Hadean Earth. Image credit: Alec Brenner.
“A wide range of ages has been proposed for tectonic activity,” said Dr. Alec Brenner, a researcher from Yale University.
“Our findings confirm that tectonic plates were actively moving on Earth’s surface 3.5 billion years ago.”
This significant study focused on the Pilbara Craton in Western Australia, known for its ancient and well-preserved rock formations dating back to the Archean era, a time when Earth sustained early microbial life and endured significant asteroid impacts.
The Pilbara region hosts some of the earliest signs of life, including stromatolites and microbial rocks formed by single-celled organisms like cyanobacteria.
The research team analyzed over 900 rock samples from more than 100 sites within the Arctic Dome region.
Using an electric drill with a hollow bit and diamond teeth, they extracted cylindrical core samples while cooling them with a hand-pumped horticultural sprayer.
An instrument equipped with a compass and goniometer was inserted into the drilled holes to accurately record the orientation of the samples.
The scientists then sliced the cores into thin sections and placed them into a magnetometer capable of detecting magnetic signals 100,000 times weaker than a typical compass needle.
These samples were measured multiple times while subjected to temperatures up to 590 degrees Celsius until the magnetite mineral lost its magnetization.
“We took a significant risk; demagnetizing thousands of cores took years. But it paid off—our results exceeded our expectations!” exclaimed Dr. Brenner.
In ferromagnetic minerals, the orientation of electrons acts like a compass needle pointing towards the magnetic poles, providing clues about the rock’s geographical position relative to these poles when they formed.
By analyzing a succession of rocks spanning 30 million years, the authors observed a shift of tectonic plates in the East Pilbara Formation, moving from 53 degrees to 77 degrees latitude and rotating clockwise by over 90 degrees at rates of tens of centimeters per year.
Because the magnetic poles can reverse, it remains uncertain whether this movement took place in the northern or southern hemisphere.
Movement slowed significantly within the following 10 million years, followed by a period of relative stability.
To compare these findings with Archean sites elsewhere, the researchers analyzed the Barberton Greenstone Belt in modern-day South Africa.
Previous paleomagnetic studies have indicated that the Barberton site is near the equator and remained nearly stationary during this period, suggesting differing drift patterns between these regions.
In contemporary times, the North American and Eurasian plates are moving apart at a rate of about 2.5 cm per year.
Many questions about the timing and nature of Earth’s current plate tectonics remain unanswered, with geophysicists referring to this as the “active lid,” as opposed to earlier theories of a stagnant, sluggish, or ephemeral lid.
This research dismisses the concept of a stagnant lid but doesn’t conclusively determine which model of plate movement is most probable.
“We’re examining tectonic plate movements, which require defined boundaries between plates, contrary to the notion of a continuous, crackless lithosphere,” Brenner explained.
“Instead, the lithosphere was segmented into various parts capable of moving relative to one another.”
Additionally, Brenner and his collaborators identified the oldest known geomagnetic reversals, where a planet’s magnetic field alternates its polarity. After such a reversal, a compass needle points south instead of north.
This phenomenon is associated with dynamo action in the Earth’s core, where molten iron’s convection creates electrical currents and magnetic fields. The last known reversal occurred about 780,000 years ago.
“New evidence suggests that geomagnetic reversals were less frequent 3.5 billion years ago compared to today,” noted Roger Hu, a professor at Harvard University.
“While not definitive, it implies that the mechanisms behind these reversals may have operated differently back then.”
The findings were published in the journal Science on March 19.
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Alec R. Brenner et al. 2026. Relative plate motion and paleomagnetic detection of a core dynamo with a rare reversal at 3.5 Ga. Science 391 (6791): 1278-1282; doi: 10.1126/science.adw9250
In 2029, when the asteroid Apophis makes its close pass by Earth, it will be joined by two landers from a private U.S. company.
Measuring around 400 meters in diameter and discovered in 2004, Apophis initially had a concerning 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth in April 2029, which could devastate an area the size of a city. However, updated studies now indicate there’s no risk of impact for at least the next century.
On April 13, 2029, Apophis will fly at a mere 32,000 kilometers from Earth—closer than geostationary satellites. This historic event will allow it to be visible to the naked eye, marking a once-in-a-millennium opportunity for asteroid observation. Multiple spacecraft from the USA, Europe, Japan, and China are slated to observe the asteroid before, during, and after its flyby.
Among these missions, US-based ExLabs has announced its flagship spacecraft, Apophis ExL, has successfully passed a critical review stage. The planned launch in 2028 will carry up to ten different landers and equipment from various clients, including a lander from an undisclosed source and two from Japan’s Chiba Institute of Technology.
“Our goal is to capture images from the asteroid’s surface,” states Miguel Pascual, chief scientific officer and co-founder of ExLabs. “This could lead to groundbreaking scientific discoveries.”
No private company has successfully landed on an asteroid to date, but US asteroid mining firm Astroforge intends to initiate a mission for such a landing this year.
ExLabs plans to deploy Chiba Institute of Technology’s shoebox-sized lander from an altitude of 400 meters above Apophis. It will descend at approximately 10 centimeters per second and land quietly on the surface after an hour, capturing images with onboard cameras.
The landing is strategically scheduled for up to a week post-close-approach to mitigate the risk of altering Apophis’s orbit. Pascual notes that the gravitational influences during the flyby could amplify impacts significantly.
Additionally, the European and Japanese Ramses mission (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety) will also deploy a lander. Led by project scientist Patrick Michel of the University of the Cote d’Azur, this mission aims to land a few days prior to the flyby to measure landslide activity induced by Earth’s gravity, potentially documenting ExLabs’ lander as it descends.
“The chance to physically interact with the surface and assess its texture is remarkable,” says Michel.
However, Michel emphasizes the need for seamless communication among all missions to prevent any operational conflicts. “It’s crucial that we adapt accordingly,” he adds. “The world will be observing us. We must ensure success.”
Astronomers have unveiled a fascinating new exoplanet located just 35 light-years from Earth, perpetually shrouded in a massive ocean of lava.
The exoplanet, designated L 98-59 d, has the potential to challenge current theories of planet formation and introduce an entirely new category of planetary bodies, according to recent study published in Nature Astronomy.
This groundbreaking discovery stems from observations made by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) alongside various ground-based observatories, which revealed several striking characteristics.
Notably, L 98-59 d, measuring 1.6 times the size of Earth, exhibits a remarkably low density and possesses substantial quantities of hydrogen sulfide in its atmosphere.
This positions L 98-59 d outside traditional classifications for similarly sized planets, which are typically categorized as either rocky “gas dwarfs” with hydrogen atmospheres or as “water worlds” characterized by oceans and ice. Clearly, L 98-59 d does not fit into these established categories.
To delve deeper into its true nature, a research team from the University of Oxford utilized computer simulations to rewind the clock approximately 5 billion years, reconstructing the planet’s entire evolutionary history.
Their simulations suggested that L 98-59 d is likely encased in a mantle of molten silicate rock, featuring a global magma ocean extending thousands of kilometers deep. This expansive reservoir enables the storage of significant amounts of sulfur, which accounts for the unusual atmospheric composition detected by JWST.
“This discovery implies that the classifications currently employed by astronomers to describe small planets may be overly simplistic,” stated the lead author, Dr. Harrison Nichols. “What other unique planets await discovery?”
L 98-59 d orbits a red dwarf star with about one-third the mass of the Sun – Photo credit: Mark A. Garlick / markgarlick.com
The findings from this research also have implications for our own planet. “All planets initially form in a molten state. Some, like Earth, cool down, while others, like L 98-59 d, remain molten,” Nichols noted in BBC Science Focus.
“We can leverage these observations to gain insights into the early history of our own planet and the origins of life by studying the common physics that govern these ‘alien’ worlds.”
Looking forward, Nichols believes L 98-59 d could represent the first of many. “This planet may well be the inaugural member of the broader category of magma ocean worlds… ‘magma oceans’ could prove to be quite prevalent.”
Future missions, including the European Space Agency’s Ariel and PLATO missions, will provide further data to determine whether L 98-59 d is an anomaly or the first known representative of a much larger class of worlds.
Located in the Kvaneveld deposit of southern Greenland, these sodalites emit a captivating glow under ultraviolet light, creating a stunning contrast against the surrounding mountains.
The striking image was captured by Photographer Jonas Kako. During his exploration, he investigated the impact of rare earth element mining on Greenland’s local communities. The sodalite found at Kvanefjeld absorbs ultraviolet electromagnetic radiation, emitting light at wavelengths visible to human eyes.
The Kvanefjeld site contains critical rare earth elements and minerals essential for various industries, including space, defense, and sustainable energy solutions. Currently, Western nations rely on Chinese mines for about 90% of these materials, creating geopolitical vulnerabilities. Remarkably, 25 out of the 34 minerals labeled as critical raw materials by the European Commission are located in Greenland.
Such valuable resources render Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and similar mineral-rich areas prime interest for both scientists and policymakers. The island has been thrust into international headlines amid rising global tensions, with discussions surrounding its potential purchase and territorial threats from former President Donald Trump.
Kako’s photo series Treasure Island sheds light on the challenges faced by Greenlanders, many of whom are striving for independence from Danish governance, while also resisting the idea of joining the United States. The island’s precarious political landscape has only intensified, placing its residents under unexpected international scrutiny.
At present, Greenland’s economy primarily thrives on fishing, which represents about 90% of its export earnings. Yet, resource extraction has the potential to reshape this economic landscape, raising concerns among residents regarding the environmental implications of mining, especially since some minerals are found alongside radioactive materials.
Miners at Amitsoq Mine, Important for Graphite Production
Photo by Jonas Kako/Panos
Kako’s image captures Greenland miners transporting graphite samples for future assessments at the Amitsoq mine, known for its significant graphite reserves, crucial for green technologies and battery production. Last year, the European Union recognized this mine as strategically important, paving the way for financial backing.
Graphite Sample Essential for Modern Technologies
Photo by Jonas Kako/Panos
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A decommissioned NASA satellite, **Van Allen Spacecraft A**, launched 14 years ago to study Earth’s radiation belts, is set to crash into Earth on Tuesday.
Weighing in at 1,323 pounds, the spacecraft is predicted to enter the atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to U.S. Space Force forecasts. This will be an uncontrolled re-entry, which means NASA cannot steer the spacecraft; however, they anticipate that most of the satellite will incinerate during its fiery descent through the atmosphere.
As NASA stated, “some components are expected to survive reentry.”
“The risk of harm to anyone on Earth is low, approximately 1 in 4,200,” according to NASA. “NASA and the Space Force will continue to monitor the reentry.” For the latest updates, visit this forecast.
Deactivated satellites, spent rocket stages, and space debris re-enter Earth’s atmosphere regularly. In fact, such objects make uncontrolled descents nearly every day, as reported by the European Space Agency.
Typically, hardware burns up harmlessly upon re-entry, but some parts may survive. Fortunately, with oceans covering approximately 71% of the Earth’s surface, the chances of space debris landing on populated areas are minimal.
Accurately predicting the time and location of an uncontrolled spacecraft’s re-entry is challenging due to various factors, including atmospheric dynamics, space weather, and the spacecraft’s descent trajectory. The Space Force projects a re-entry window for Van Allen A with a margin of error of plus or minus 24 hours.
Van Allen Spacecraft A was launched on August 30, 2012, alongside its twin, Van Allen Spacecraft B. Both probes were designed to investigate a ring of high-energy radiation particles trapped in Earth’s magnetic field, known as the Van Allen radiation belts.
Three donut-shaped radiation belts around Earth. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
The Van Allen belts are crucial for protecting Earth from solar storms, cosmic radiation, and charged particles from the solar wind. Without these belts, satellites could be damaged, human health could be jeopardized, and power grids on Earth could face disruptions. However, astronauts must navigate through the Van Allen belts to reach space, exposing them to potentially harmful radiation.
NASA’s Van Allen Probes A and B were instrumental in advancing our understanding of these radiation belts. The mission led to numerous discoveries about the radiation belts, including the identification of a temporary third radiation belt formed during intense solar activity.
These twin spacecraft continued their mission until 2019 when they exhausted their fuel. NASA subsequently concluded the mission, leaving the probes in orbit.
Initially, NASA projected that the spacecraft would re-enter Earth’s atmosphere in 2034. However, increased solar activity has recently intensified atmospheric drag on both probes, accelerating their descent. As solar activity rises, denser atmospheric layers can slow down satellites, complicating their orbits.
Van Allen Spacecraft B is anticipated to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere by 2030.
These re-entries shed light on the growing issue of space debris, especially as the frequency of launches rises. Tens of thousands of pieces of space junk, along with millions of tiny orbital debris, clutter low-Earth orbit, the zone where many telecommunications and GPS satellites operate.
Debris fragments can travel at speeds of up to 18,000 miles per hour, posing safety risks to functioning spacecraft and astronauts aboard the International Space Station.
Saturn’s moon Enceladus: A Prime Candidate in the Search for Extraterrestrial Life
Credit: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute
A revolutionary method for detecting chemical properties of living organisms could unlock the secrets to identifying extraterrestrial life forms, even those with biochemical processes distinct from life on Earth.
In the quest for extraterrestrial life, scientists traditionally depend on biosignatures—substances or patterns that reliably signify the presence of life. By analyzing the atmospheres of distant planets, astronomers search for molecular biosignatures. However, many molecules associated with life can also arise from geological activities, suggesting a careful approach to interpretation.
A novel test developed by Christopher Carr and colleagues from Georgia Tech focuses on amino acids, which serve as fundamental components of proteins that sustain all known life forms. While amino acids can also be produced in lifeless environments, they have been uncovered in lunar soil, comets, and meteorites.
Given this, Carr and his team proposed that analyzing the reactivity of molecules within samples could provide more reliable biological indicators than merely detecting amino acids.
In non-living systems, molecules are continuously formed and destroyed as they react with environmental factors like cosmic rays. The more reactive a molecule, the more likely it is to decompose. “Without stable systems to maintain molecules, their reactivity increases,” explains Carr. However, living systems require reactive molecules, therefore they retain more reactive ones, creating distinct biochemical signatures.
The reactivity of compounds hinges on the arrangement of electrons in the molecules. More reactive molecules exhibit smaller energy differences between their outermost electron and the next available electron space during reactions.
Carr and his team calculated energy differences for 64 amino acids, including those not present in Earth’s biosphere. They analyzed the prevalence of these amino acids in samples sourced from both abiotic processes (like meteorites and lunar soil) and biotic sources (like fungi and bacteria), employing molecular energy calculations to establish a statistical framework for amino acid reactivity. This allowed them to estimate the probability of a sample being alive or inorganic.
After testing over 200 living and nonliving samples, they found their method could accurately identify life with 95 percent certainty. “This approach is remarkably straightforward,” Carr asserts. “It’s easily explainable and directly linked to the principles of physics.”
This reactivity-based method is applicable to the search for extraterrestrial life, as Carr posits that if life exists elsewhere, it likely relies on carbon-based chemistry and amino acids, governed by the same principles of chemical reactivity present on Earth. “Life inherently requires control over the timing, methods, and locations of molecular interactions. Therefore, structures that facilitate electron flow and molecular interactions are essential,” Carr notes.
While utilizing molecular reactivity to identify life isn’t new, measuring reactivity through statistical distributions is an innovative advancement. Henderson Cleaves from Howard University suggests that this method could enhance the toolkit of life-detection instruments on forthcoming space missions to Mars or the moons of Saturn, most notably Enceladus. However, Cleaves notes that the technology to accurately measure molecular abundance is a significant challenge.
Exploring the Mysteries of the Universe: Cheshire, England
Embark on a weekend with some of the brightest minds in science, diving deep into the mysteries of the universe, featuring a tour of the iconic Lovell Telescope.
Global warming is accelerating at an alarming rate, occurring at twice the speed compared to previous decades. This increase indicates that significant climate changes could emerge sooner than anticipated.
From 2013 to 2014, the Earth warmed by approximately 0.18°C per decade. This trend has since escalated, with a temperature rise of roughly 0.36°C per decade noted in recent analyses by Stefan Rahmstorf and his team at the University of Potsdam, Germany.
If the current rate of global warming persists, humanity risks violating the Paris Agreement’s cap of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C by as early as 2028—much sooner than various forecasts suggest.
“Every fraction of a degree is crucial, amplifying the consequences of global warming manifesting as severe weather events and ecological disturbances,” Rahmstorf states. “With the notable exception of the United States, the global community aims to mitigate and curb the effects of climate change. The current trajectory suggests a worrying acceleration in warming trends.”
After experiencing unprecedented heat levels, climate scientists are actively discussing the potential for further acceleration in global warming throughout 2023. However, natural phenomena like El Niño have complicated efforts to ascertain whether the observed temperature rises are attributable to climate change or merely transient weather patterns.
Rahmstorf’s research is pioneering, revealing a statistically significant acceleration in global warming attributable to climate change, with 98% confidence.
This collaborative research assessed five distinct global temperature datasets, some indicating even higher temperature spikes. Based on a 20-year average, global warming may be 1.5°C hotter this year compared to pre-industrial levels, as suggested by data from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts.
Warm-water coral reefs are on the brink of collapse, and exceeding the 1.5°C threshold risks triggering further tipping points, including irreversible glacial melting in Greenland and West Antarctica, as well as deforestation in the Amazon rainforest.
Many scientists contend that the recent acceleration in global warming primarily results from the restrictions imposed on sulfur dioxide emissions from shipping in 2020. While harmful to public health, this pollutant previously formed an aerosol mist, shielding the Earth from excess sunlight and cooling the atmosphere.
With this sunlight barrier now diminished, the rate of warming might decelerate, though unconfirmable at this stage, notes Rahmstorf. The ongoing shift from fossil fuels is likely to decrease air contaminants that have masked temperature rises.
Aerosol levels will continue to decline, but swift adjustments in shipping emissions are improbable. “A gradual easing in warming rates over the next decade is plausible,” he adds.
Alongside the effects of El Niño, researchers also considered volcanic eruptions that generate haze obstructing sunlight, as well as heightened solar radiation during sunspot peaks. After disregarding these impacts, they applied two distinct models to global temperature data. Both indicated a marked acceleration in warming, albeit at different intervals.
Nevertheless, the study’s authors caution that completely isolating the temperature influences of El Niño, eruptions, and sunspots remains a challenge, as stated by Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth, California. This raises the possibility of a slight overestimation in the acceleration of global warming. Nonetheless, the evidence strongly supports the notion of a quicker pace of change, he asserts.
“The key take-home message is that while exact figures on the acceleration rate of warming are still pending, there is compelling evidence suggesting it is intensifying,” Hausfather concludes. “We must await additional data over the next few years for clearer insights.”
While direct evidence of extraterrestrial life remains elusive unless aliens reside close to our solar system, the search for signs of life beyond Earth continues. Astrobiologists typically seek biological markers such as oxygen molecules and ozone in the atmospheres of exoplanets as indicators of potential life.
However, the presence of these chemicals doesn’t guarantee life; they could arise from unknown non-biological processes. More definitive proof of intelligent extraterrestrial beings might come from identifying signs of technological activities in space, known as technosignatures. Established in 1984, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) focuses specifically on detecting these technosignatures, particularly through radio signals.
From 2006 to 2020, the SETI@home project collaborated with researchers exploring excessive radio emissions from space via the Arecibo Telescope. Over 14 years, SETI@home collected approximately 400 days of observation time, resulting in billions of detected radio emissions. Unfortunately, most of these signals are likely due to radio frequency interference, benign celestial objects like pulsars or gas clouds, rather than a single extraterrestrial source.
To refine their data analysis, the team recently developed an algorithm designed to filter out interference and pinpoint signals from fixed sources. This advancement positions researchers to re-observe these locations using the 500-meter Fast Radio Telescope.
The algorithm’s goal is to differentiate between natural cosmic signals and potential technosignatures. The team established three criteria for detecting such signals: they must remain stable within a narrow frequency range, exhibit a consistent pulsation, and contain a periodic structure spanning several seconds.
A key consideration is that signals sent intentionally for detection may differ significantly from random radio waves emitted from an alien atmosphere. The principles governing these interactions, such as the Doppler shift, complicate the analysis. Researchers theorize that intelligent civilizations would generate radio signals at a near-constant frequency, easily distinguishable from natural noise.
In their algorithm development, researchers integrated artificial data points that simulate the potential detection of distinct technosignatures, referred to as birdie candidates. If a birdie is flagged for further analysis, it validates the algorithm’s effectiveness. Adjustments to the algorithm’s sensitivity were made based on whether birdies were included or excluded from deeper scrutiny.
To tackle the complexities of data filtering and scoring, the team divided tasks into manageable segments, allowing simultaneous processing on multiple machines. Running the algorithm on 2,000 connected processors, filtering took about 15 hours, while scoring required 1.6 days. Two iterations of the algorithm on SETI@home data were completed, including one with 3,000 birdies for comparative analysis. The Birdie system helped determine which algorithm settings surpassed specified energy thresholds, leading to the identification of 92 targeted signal candidates for re-observation using 23 hours of observation time gained through FAST.
Currently, work is ongoing to analyze these signals, and as of July 2025, researchers have re-observed 80 out of the 92 candidates. Although no direct evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence has been discovered yet, the team remains optimistic that future inquiries utilizing specialized radio telescopes will yield promising results. However, the high costs and demands associated with radio telescope usage mean that SETI will likely continue to collaborate with other astronomers to maximize data collection from available observations.
Deep in the cold void of space lies a potential asteroid threat that could obliterate most life on Earth. Is such a fate unavoidable? Can we potentially avert disaster, or are we fated for a catastrophic end similar to the dinosaurs? Here’s what science reveals.
The asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago measured at least 10 kilometers across. Its massive impact resulted in catastrophic tsunamis, widespread wildfires, and global darkness. Estimates of Earth’s crater history suggest that an asteroid of this magnitude collides with Earth roughly every 60 million years. Smaller asteroids, around 1 kilometer in diameter, impact the Earth approximately every million years, with the last significant event occurring around 900,000 years ago. These statistics are understandably alarming.
However, unlike the dinosaurs, humans possess the unique ability to observe and analyze our universe. Consequently, scientists are diligently working global efforts to catalog asteroids and assess which pose a threat.
Fortunately, among the thousands of near-Earth objects currently monitored by astronomers, only 35 present a risk greater than 1 in 1 million of colliding with Earth in the next century. Moreover, the vast majority of these potential threats measure less than 100 meters in diameter. So, is an extinction-level asteroid likely to strike during our lifetime? The probability is extremely low.
Nonetheless, discerning readers will note phrases like “about the asteroid we are tracking,” “a small possibility,” and “almost.” Such wording implies that we can’t confirm we’ve detected every asteroid out there. Rarely, we receive sensational news about newly discovered asteroids nearing Earth, but in many instances, these rocks pass safely by.
To estimate the number of detected asteroids, astronomers calculate three factors: the total number of known asteroids, the volume of the sky explored, and the power of the telescopes used. They estimate that all asteroids larger than 10 kilometers posing a danger to Earth have been accounted for. Breathe easy; the likelihood of experiencing an event similar to the dinosaurs’ extinction is minimal.
Currently, about 80 percent of kilometers-wide asteroids have been identified, indicating a low chance of unforeseen impacts. Asteroids smaller than 100 meters pose little threat, and incidents like the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013 typically result in minor damage as they incinerate upon atmospheric entry.
However, the so-called “urban killer”—the asteroids within the 100-meter range—remain concerning, as we have only detected less than half of these. If you’re worried about asteroids, these smaller threats warrant closer scrutiny.
Luckily, we have technology at our disposal that differentiates us from the dinosaurs. Our first line of defense involves monitoring space with advanced telescopes. Continuous efforts to observe near-Earth objects are underway, highlighted by the upcoming launch of the NEO Surveyor next year, which aims to greatly enhance our capacity to track these asteroids.
The second defense mechanism provided by space exploration is the capacity to respond if a threatening asteroid is detected. NASA’s 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test demonstrated the potential to redirect an asteroid, ensuring we could alter its path if necessary. Provided we have sufficient notice—typically requiring several years of monitoring—we can adjust trajectories to avert collision.
In the event that an asteroid does hit Earth, the impact would be a natural yet predictable disaster. If an asteroid strikes, it could crash into the ocean or an uninhabited region. According to the World Economic Forum, less than 15 percent of the Earth’s lands (under 4.3 percent of the total surface area) have been significantly modified by humans, with even fewer areas inhabited.
If an asteroid were to threaten one of these few populated areas, we have strategies similar to managing any natural disaster: evacuation, damage control, and sheltering in place. Strengthening our overall disaster response capabilities prepares us for such scenarios and aids in managing more plausible and unpredictable disasters.
So, returning to our initial question: Are asteroids inevitable? Absolutely. Is there a solution? Very likely. Will we face a fate akin to the dinosaurs? If so, it remains far off in the future. Instead of succumbing to worry, invest your energy in preparedness—learn about natural disaster responses and keep an eye on asteroids like the vigilant scientists do.
A groundbreaking study by geoscientists at the University of Florida and the Paris Institute of Geophysics reveals the origin of Earth’s most severe gravity anomaly, known as the Antarctic Gravity Hole (or Antarctic Geoid Depression). This anomaly is attributed to millions of years of slowed underground rock flow.
Evolution of the Antarctic geoid cyclone. Image credit: P. Glišović & AM Forte, doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-28606-1.
According to Professor Alessandro Forte from the University of Florida, gaining a better understanding of how Earth’s interior influences gravity and sea levels can shed light on factors essential for the growth and stability of significant ice sheets.
“Variations in gravity due to differences in rock density beneath the surface, although small in absolute terms, can have a substantial impact on ocean levels,” he explained.
“In regions of reduced gravity, water tends to flow toward areas of higher gravity, causing sea levels to be relatively lower in those spots.”
“As a result of the Antarctic gravity hole, the sea level around Antarctica is significantly lower than it would typically be.”
In this research, Professor Forte and Dr. Petar Grišović from the Paris Institute of Geophysics have meticulously mapped out the Antarctic geoid cyclone, revealing its development throughout the Cenozoic Era, spanning from 66 million years ago to the present day.
The team utilized a global scientific initiative that integrates seismic data and advanced modeling techniques to reconstruct the 3D structure of Earth’s interior.
“It’s like performing a CT scan of the planet without the use of conventional X-rays,” Forte remarked.
“Earthquakes generate seismic waves, which act as the ‘light’ that reveals Earth’s inner structure.”
The researchers successfully created a global gravity map that aligns closely with satellite data, validating their underlying model.
The next challenge involved reversing the geophysical clock to examine how the Antarctic geoid cyclone has evolved over millions of years.
By employing physics-based reconstructions and sophisticated computer models, they retraced geological changes spanning 70 million years.
These historical analyses indicate that the Antarctic geoid cyclone began in a relatively weak state.
From approximately 50 to 30 million years ago, however, the gravity hole began to strengthen, coinciding with significant shifts in Antarctica’s climatic conditions, including the onset of a global ice age.
“We aim to test the causal relationship between this intensified gravity hole and the Antarctic ice sheet. Our new modeling will connect changes in gravity, sea levels, and continental elevation,” stated Professor Forte.
This research seeks to answer pivotal questions about the interactions between our climate and the processes occurring within Earth.
For more details, refer to the study published in December 2025 in the journal Scientific Reports.
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P. Grišović and A.M. Forte. 2025. Cenozoic evolution of Earth’s strongest geoid low reveals the dynamics of the Antarctic subsurface mantle. Scientific Reports 15, 45749; doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-28606-1
Artist’s Impression of CarbSAR Satellite Orbiting the Earth
Credit: Oxford Space Systems
Britain’s newest satellite, **CarbSAR**, is set to launch on Sunday, equipped with cutting-edge knitwear technology. This innovative satellite will deploy a mesh radar antenna crafted using machinery typically found in textile manufacturing.
“We utilize a standard industrial knitting machine for jumpers, enhanced with features tailored to create specialized threads,” says Amur Raina, Director of Production at Oxford Space Systems (OSS) in the UK.
OSS collaborates with Surrey Satellite Technology Limited (SSTL) to install the antenna on a compact, cost-effective spacecraft capable of capturing high-resolution images of the Earth’s surface.
If successful, this unique design could be integrated into the UK Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) surveillance satellite network later this year.
The “wool” utilized in OSS’s weaving process is ultra-fine tungsten wire, coated with gold. The machines produce several meters of fabric simultaneously, which are then cut into segments and sewn into 3 millimeter-wide discs. These discs are tightly stretched over 48 carbon fiber ribs to form a smooth parabolic dish optimized for radar imaging.
The key innovation lies in the structural design, where each rib wraps radially around a central hub, resembling a 48-coil tape measure. This unique design enables the entire assembly to collapse down to just 75 cm in diameter, drastically reducing the volume of the 140-kilogram CarbSAR satellite during launch.
Upon reaching orbit, the stored strain energy in the bent carbon fibers will allow the ribs to return to their original shape, thereby pulling the mesh into a precise parabolic configuration.
“For optimal imaging, we must deploy it accurately to achieve the perfect parabolic shape,” adds Sean Sutcliffe, CEO of OSS. “Our design’s precision is its standout feature.” Testing has shown the mesh sheet remains within 1 millimeter of its ideal shape, ensuring exceptional performance.
The demand for Earth observation via small radar satellites is on the rise, thanks to their ability to image the ground in all weather conditions and even at night—a capability increasingly appreciated by emerging space companies.
This data is particularly sought after by military forces globally and played a crucial role as an intelligence resource during the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Despite once leading Europe in space radar developments in the 1990s, the UK has fallen significantly behind in the international arena.
With CarbSAR and the upcoming MoD constellation named Oberon, part of the broader ISTARI program, UK aerospace engineers have a chance to re-establish their presence in the industry.
“We’re seeing heightened interest from foreign governments in radar solutions,” states Andrew Cawthorn, Managing Director of SSTL. “Our primary focus is demonstrating that we can successfully deploy this antenna and capture images.”
CarbSAR is engineered to detect objects as small as 50 cm, sufficient for identifying tanks and aircraft.
After deployment, approximately two days post-liftoff, the Royal Space Force, supervised by the Royal Air Force, will closely monitor the antenna’s performance.
“CarbSAR symbolizes the innovative spirit and collaboration of one of the UK’s leading space companies,” said Major General Paul Tedman, Commander of the UK Space Force. “We eagerly anticipate seeing CarbSAR operational and exploring how its advanced technologies can enhance Oberon and our comprehensive ISTARI satellite initiative.”
The space station industry is experiencing significant growth. For years, the only option for sending astronauts and experiments into orbit was the International Space Station (ISS). However, as NASA plans to deorbit the ISS by the end of the decade, a new commercially owned space station is set to emerge.
Mary Guenther, director of space policy at the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington, DC, states, “These developments have been in progress for years, primarily alongside NASA, with hardware expected to begin operations in 2026.” While privately developed modules have been attached to the ISS, never before has there been a fully independent commercial space station.
Without the ISS, a commercial space station will be essential. Guenther emphasizes, “It’s time for NASA to advance into uncharted territory and leave the operation of a low Earth orbit space station to commercial entities.”
In 2026, two companies, including the startup Vast, are poised to launch operations in the U.S. Vast plans to deploy the Haven-1 station aboard SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket as early as May. This station is smaller and simpler than the ISS and will use SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule for certain life support systems, marking a historic milestone as the first commercial space station.
The Haven-1 is designed to accommodate a crew of four for space tourism, featuring a photography dome and Wi-Fi, in addition to hosting smaller-scale microgravity experiments. It is envisioned as a precursor to the larger Haven-2, which Vast executive teams aim to position as a successor to the ISS.
“Everyone, including Vast, is preparing for 2030,” says Colin Smith from Vast. “With the ISS scheduled to deorbit at the end of 2030, there’s a growing urgency as we near 2025.”
Sierra Space is another player with plans for a 2026 space station, currently developing the Dream Chaser spaceplane. This company intends to launch a prototype of its expandable space station module called the Large Scale Integrated Flexible Environment in 2026, which will be part of the collaborative Orbital Reef project led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space.
The era of commercial space stations promises to differ significantly from that of the ISS, given the broader array of industry participants. “Numerous commercial space station models are emerging to cater to various markets,” Guenther notes. “I am eager to see how these companies distinguish themselves in order to attract clientele, and how competition can spur innovation.”
Many anticipate that private space stations will considerably lower the cost of operating in orbit, similarly to how private launch providers have made space access more economical.
“The ISS is the most expensive structure humanity has ever constructed, costing about $150 billion to support just seven individuals. Without changes, there will be no future for space commerce, manufacturing, or habitation,” Smith comments. “Our vision is to empower millions to thrive in space, and the steps we take now will pave the way for that future.”
Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether market demand will support a flourishing space economy. The prospect of establishing multiple specialized space stations in orbit is thrilling, yet it necessitates clients beyond NASA and other national space organizations. As new stations commence operations this year, their sustainability will soon become apparent.
“There exist promising industries poised to expand into space, such as pharmaceuticals and materials,” Guenther remarks. “It will be fascinating to see which of these sectors flourish and grow.”
The bold initiative by Reflect Orbital aims to commence in 2026, deploying satellites to reflect sunlight back to Earth. This technology seeks to illuminate dark regions for visibility and enhance energy generation. However, many astronomers express skepticism regarding the project’s feasibility and its implications for scientific research.
Reflect Orbital, a US-based company, aspires to provide “sunlight on demand.” Their first satellite is expected to launch in early 2026, illuminating ten locations as part of its inaugural “world tour.” Plans include deploying thousands of satellites fitted with extensive mirrors designed to reflect sunlight back to the Earth, catering to needs such as remote control, defense, infrastructure, and energy production.
By 2030, Reflect Orbital anticipates having sufficient satellite coverage to deliver 200 watts per square meter to solar farms on Earth, mimicking the light levels of dusk and dawn, thereby facilitating reliable energy production, especially in regions lacking natural light.
Despite these ambitions, their Federal Communications Commission (FCC) specifications suggest that a single satellite may not generate significant power. Astronomers, including members from Tucson’s Dark Sky Consulting and the American Astronomical Society, utilized these filings to underscore potential energy limitations.
As highlighted by John Valentine, a prominent scholar in the field, the reflected light would only exceed a full moon’s brightness fourfold, indicating insufficient electricity generation. In order to produce more significant light output, deploying satellites with a multitude of reflectors would be essential, presenting logistical challenges and increased costs.
Furthermore, the dynamic nature of the mirrors could pose challenges for astronomical research, since they might intermittently produce flashes of sunlight. Additionally, even micro-damage to a satellite’s reflector from tiny meteoroids could scatter light unintentionally, complicating operational efficiency.
Reflect Orbital is actively engaging with the scientific community to explore solutions for these arising concerns. As of now, the company has not responded to inquiries from New Scientist.
Asteroids are an intrinsic aspect of our solar system. Millions of rocky bodies orbit the sun, including those categorized as near-Earth asteroids, which occasionally come close to our planet. While cinematic portrayals often depict asteroid strikes as abrupt, inevitable catastrophes, experts contend that in reality, the risk is significantly more manageable and frequently preventable.
But what are the actual probabilities of an asteroid colliding with Earth? Recent studies shed light on this issue and offer some unexpected insights.
What are the chances that an asteroid will hit Earth?
A major asteroid impact would have effects that could be felt globally. Depending on its landing site, it might either harmlessly drop into the ocean or inflict severe damage on populated regions.
“Most people on Earth are likely aware of moderate to large asteroid impacts,” explains Carrie Nugent, a planetary scientist at the Olin Institute of Technology in Massachusetts.
However, Nugent emphasizes that catastrophic outcomes are exceedingly rare. While our planet has faced significant asteroid impacts throughout its history, including a notable one that contributed to the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, current scientific understanding suggests there is no immediate cause for alarm.
New research on asteroid impact probability
Nugent, along with a team from Aalborg University in Denmark, employed computer simulations to analyze the risks associated with asteroid impacts. Their research concentrated on asteroids akin to recognized Near Earth Objects (NEOs).
Utilizing the publicly available NASA JPL Horizons system, they simulated the orbits of these asteroids to determine the frequency with which they intersect Earth’s orbit, allowing researchers to estimate the likelihood of large asteroids striking our planet.
According to their findings published on August 12th in the Planetary Science Journal:
Asteroids over 140 meters (460 feet) – Roughly equivalent to the length of a small cruise ship
Collisions with Earth approximately once every 11,000 years
Keeping asteroid risks in perspective
Understanding probabilities like “once every 11,000 years” can be complex. To provide clarity, Nugent compared asteroid impacts to other more familiar real-world events.
Her analysis revealed that:
You are more likely to survive an asteroid impact than to be struck by lightning.
Conversely, your chances of dying in a car accident are significantly higher than from an asteroid collision.
There are also other low-probability but high-risk events, such as the collapse of a deep hole in dry sand, that can result in fatalities but remain largely unknown to the general public.
“This is an extremely rare cause of death that many are unaware of,” Nugent noted, underscoring how human perception often miscalculates risk.
Can asteroid collisions be prevented?
In contrast to popular narratives in films and literature, asteroid strikes are not fate-driven events. In fact, scientists have demonstrated that altering an asteroid’s trajectory is possible.
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully changed the path of a small asteroid that posed no threat to Earth. This experiment showcased that, with sufficient warning, we could potentially deflect a hazardous asteroid and avert a collision entirely.
“This is the only natural disaster we can completely prevent,” Nugent asserts.
Why asteroid tracking is important
Continuous research and sky survey initiatives are crucial for planetary defense. Early detection and tracking of near-Earth asteroids provide scientists ample time to evaluate risks and take necessary actions if needed.
Modern asteroid detection systems are continually improving, diminishing uncertainty and enhancing Earth’s preparedness against cosmic threats.
Conclusion
Though asteroid strikes captivate public imagination, scientific evidence indicates that they are infrequent, quantifiable, and preventable. Advances in tracking technology and the success of missions like NASA’s DART test reassure us that Earth is better shielded than ever.
Experts suggest that asteroid research should foster confidence and continued investment in planetary defense rather than fear.
SNR 0519, the remnants of a supernova that erupted around 600 years ago
Claude Coenen/ESA/Hubble & NASA
Our planet may owe some of its characteristics to a neighboring star that met its end as a supernova during the formation period of the solar system. This notion of a supernova bubble enveloping the sun and inundating it with cosmic rays might be a common phenomenon across the galaxy, implying that there could be many more Earth-like planets than we ever imagined.
Thanks to ancient data, we understand from a meteorite sample that the early solar system was rich in radioactive materials that generated significant heat and quickly decayed. The heat produced by these elements was crucial for releasing substantial amounts of water from the colliding space rocks and comets that coalesced to form Earth, ensuring there was enough water for life to eventually thrive.
However, the origin of these elements remains a mystery. While many are commonly produced in supernovae, simulations of nearby supernovae have faced challenges in replicating the exact ratios of radioactive elements observed in meteorite specimens from the early Solar System. A significant issue is that these explosive events were incredibly forceful and might have obliterated the delicate early solar system before planetary formation could take place.
Recently, Ryo Sawada and fellow researchers at the University of Tokyo have discovered that if a supernova occurs at an adequate distance, it could supply Earth with the necessary radioactive components without interfering with the planet-forming process.
In their theoretical framework, a supernova located approximately three light-years from our solar system could initiate a two-step process to generate the essential radioactive elements. Certain radioactive substances, like aluminum and manganese, are directly created during supernova explosions and might reach the solar system propelled by shock waves from the explosion.
Subsequently, the high-energy particles known as cosmic rays released by the supernova travel along these shock waves, colliding with other atoms in the gaseous, dusty, and rocky disk still in its formative phase, birthing the remaining radioactive elements such as beryllium and calcium. “We realized that prior models of solar system formation primarily concentrated on the injection of matter, neglecting the role of high-energy particles,” stated Sawada. “We contemplated, ‘What if our nascent solar system was simply engulfed in this particle bath?'”
Due to the occurrence of this process in more distant supernovae than previously explored, Sawada and his team estimate that between 10 and 50 percent of Sun-like stars and planetary systems might have been enriched with radioactive elements in this manner, leading to the formation of water-abundant planets that resemble Earth. Earlier theories posited that the proximity of the supernova would have made such an event exceedingly rare, akin to “winning the lottery,” as Sawada described. The fact that the supernova is further positioned indicates that “Earth’s creation is probably not an unusual occurrence, but a widespread phenomenon that transpires throughout the galaxy,” he adds.
“This is exceedingly clever because it strikes a harmonious balance between destruction and creation,” remarks Cosimo Insera from Cardiff University in the UK. “The right elements and the correct distance are essential.”
If this theory holds true, Inserra mentioned that upcoming telescopes like NASA’s Habitable World Observatory could significantly aid in the search for Earth-like planets by identifying remnants of ancient supernovae and locating systems that were within proximity to supernovae during their formation stages.
For many years, researchers have been intrigued by two massive structures hidden deep beneath the Earth’s surface. These anomalies might possess geochemical characteristics that differ from the surrounding mantle, yet their source remains unclear. Geodynamicist Yoshinori Miyazaki from Rutgers University and his team offer an unexpected explanation regarding these anomalies and their significance in influencing Earth’s capacity to sustain life.
This diagram shows a cross-section that reveals the interior of the early Earth, featuring a hot molten layer situated above the core-mantle boundary. Image credit: Yoshinori Miyazaki/Rutgers University.
The two enigmatic structures, referred to as large low-shear velocity regions and ultra-low velocity regions, lie at the boundary between the Earth’s mantle and core, approximately 2,900 km (1,800 miles) beneath the Earth’s exterior.
Large low-shear velocity regions are vast, continent-sized masses of hot and dense rock.
One of these regions is located beneath Africa, while the other is situated beneath the Pacific Ocean.
The ultra-low velocity zone resembles a thin layer of melt that adheres to the core much like a puddle of molten rock.
Both structures significantly slow seismic waves and display unusual compositions.
“These are not random, odd phenomena,” Dr. Miyazaki, co-author of a related paper published in the journal Nature Earth Science, explained.
“They represent traces of Earth’s primordial history.”
“Understanding their existence could help us unravel how our planet formed and what made it habitable.”
“Billions of years in the past, the Earth was covered by an ocean of magma.”
“While scientists anticipated that as the mantle cooled, it would establish distinctive chemical layers—similar to how frozen juice separates into sweet concentrate and watery ice—seismic surveys have shown otherwise. Instead, large low-shear velocity regions and ultra-low velocity zones appear as irregular accumulations at the Earth’s depths.”
“This contradiction sparked our inquiry. When starting with a magma ocean and performing calculations, the outcome does not match the current observations in the Earth’s mantle. A critical factor was missing.”
The researchers propose that over billions of years, elements such as silicon and magnesium may have leached from the core into the mantle, mixing with it and hindering the development of pronounced chemical layers.
This process could clarify the bizarre structure of the large low-shear velocity and ultra-low velocity regions, potentially visibly representing the solidified remnants of a basal magma ocean tainted by core materials.
“What we hypothesized is that this material could be leaking from the core,” Dr. Miyazaki noted.
“Incorporating core components might account for our current observations.”
“This discovery goes beyond merely understanding the chemistry of the deep Earth.”
“Interactions between the core and mantle may have shaped the Earth’s cooling process, volcanic activity, and atmospheric evolution.”
“This could help clarify why Earth possesses oceans and life, while Venus is a frigid hothouse and Mars a frozen wasteland.”
“Earth has water, life, and a relatively stable atmosphere.”
“In contrast, Venus’ atmosphere is over a hundred times thicker than Earth’s and is mainly carbon dioxide, while Mars’ atmosphere is much thinner.”
“While we do not fully comprehend why this is the case, the processes occurring within the planet—its cooling and layer evolution—could be a significant part of the explanation.”
By synthesizing seismic data, mineral physics, and geodynamic modeling, the authors reaffirm that the extensive low-shear velocity regions and ultra-low velocity zones offer crucial insights into Earth’s formative processes.
These structures may also contribute to volcanic hotspots like those in Hawaii and Iceland, thereby connecting deep Earth dynamics to the planet’s surface.
“This study exemplifies how the integration of planetary science, geodynamics, and mineral physics can aid in unraveling some of Earth’s long-standing enigmas,” said co-author Dr. Jie Deng, a researcher at Princeton University.
“The notion that the deep mantle may still retain the chemical memory of ancient core-mantle interactions provides fresh perspectives on Earth’s unique evolution.”
“Every new piece of evidence contributes to piecing together Earth’s early narrative, transforming scattered hints into a more coherent picture of our planet’s development.”
“Despite the limited clues we have, we are gradually forming a significant narrative,” Dr. Miyazaki remarked.
“With this research, our confidence in understanding Earth’s evolution and its distinctiveness can now be bolstered.”
_____
J. Deng et al. 2025. Heterogeneity in the deep mantle formed through a basal magma ocean contaminated by core materials. Nature Earth Science 18, 1056-1062; doi: 10.1038/s41561-025-01797-y
Ryan Wills. Barry Hetherington. ESA; NASA; Adobe Stock
For over five decades, Richard Binzel has been studying the skies for potentially hazardous asteroids. In 1995, he introduced the Near-Earth Object Hazard Index, which was later renamed the Torino Scale. This scale evaluates asteroids on a scale from 0 to 10, determined by both the probability of an impact with Earth and the potential destruction that impact could cause.
This year, Binzel’s scale gained attention when asteroid 2024 YR4 briefly reached a level 3 status, marking the first time an asteroid had achieved this level in two decades. Although the immediate risks have since diminished, this event highlighted the continued necessity of the Torino Scale. Binzel, who is affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, reassured us that such peak levels are unlikely to be reached during our lifetimes or even those of our grandchildren. He discussed with New Scientist the nuances of asteroid hunting, the risk of catastrophic collisions, and the trajectory of planetary defense.
Alex Wilkins: How was the asteroid impact risk perceived when you began your career?
Richard Binzel: I published my first paper in the 1970s. [Geologist] Eugene Shoemaker was aware that the craters on Earth were the result of impacts. Hence, I grew up understanding that asteroid impacts are a natural phenomenon still occurring today within our solar system.
Public perception was dismissive at best. While Shoemaker focused on serious scientific inquiry without much regard for public opinion, others, including astronomers Clark Chapman, David Morrison, and Don Yeomans, began acknowledging the importance of public communication. In 1989, Chapman and Morrison published Space Catastrophe, which offered one of the first serious examinations of this subject for the general public. The discovery of the KT boundary layer by Alvarez, associated with the Chicxulub asteroid that may have led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, served as a pivotal wake-up call regarding modern geological history’s potential impacts.
What prompted you to create the Near-Earth Object Hazard Index?
In 1997, an object designated XF11 exhibited a non-zero collision probability based on its initial orbit. Email was just starting to gain traction, and I was part of a small email communication group consisting of Brian Marsden, Yeomans, Chapman, and Morrison discussing how to handle this information. I was eager to publish findings but wanted to ensure accuracy regarding the risk. As further measurements of its orbit were conducted, the probability of collision was expected to fade. Why raise the alarm if the risk would likely disappear?
Marsden decided to draft a press release just as he was uncovering early observations that allowed him to conclude the collision probability was zero. I recall Yeomans sending an email stating, “Hey everyone, it’s zero.” Marsden believed it was crucial to communicate this to the public, though most of us felt we weren’t ‘crying wolf.’
“
I first presented this idea at a United Nations conference, but it was not well received. “
This experience underscored the necessity of having a method of communication when an asteroid is discovered—even if small—with a non-zero collision probability. It’s crucial to be patient and acquire sufficient data to resolve uncertainties. It’s vital not to suppress information when similar objects are found elsewhere, as secrecy breeds distrust. We unanimously agreed that transparency was paramount, allowing people to understand what we knew as early as possible. This philosophy gave birth to what was initially termed the Near-Earth Object Hazard Index.
A diagram showing what the Chicxulub crater on the Yucatán Peninsula looked like immediately after the asteroid impact that may have wiped out the dinosaurs.
D. Van Ravenswaay/Science Photo Library
How was your idea received initially?
Coincidentally, I attended a United Nations conference focused on near-Earth asteroids where I first presented this concept, but it met with skepticism. Some attendees argued it was unnecessary since details about an orbit could be explained through longitude, latitude, and ascending node. They deemed a straightforward 0 to 10 scale superfluous. Arrogantly, some astronomers insisted they need not depend on it, believing they were knowledgeable enough to interpret complex three-dimensional orbital properties.
Nevertheless, I persisted. After bringing it back to the Turin conference, I decided to name it the Turin Scale. I aimed to avoid personal attribution to maintain humility; it was for collective benefit.
The Turin Scale assigns an asteroid a score from 0 to 10 based on its size and risk of hitting Earth.
Was the outcome as you expected?
I anticipated more activity than what we’ve observed, likely due to the effective tracking methods in place for objects. If there’s a non-zero probability associated with an object, it typically gets sorted out quickly.
Over a dozen objects have achieved a score of 1 on the Turin scale with minimal publicity, but that’s precisely as intended. It’s akin to the Richter scale; when Californians learn they might experience a magnitude 1 or 2 earthquake, it doesn’t disrupt their day.
What does the future hold for asteroid tracking?
The pace of near-Earth asteroid discovery is set to surge with the operational launch of the Vera C. Rubin Telescope and the Near-Earth Object (NEO) survey telescope. We’ll identify these objects at an unprecedented rate. Some will possess highly uncertain initial trajectories that require extensive extrapolation, resulting in non-zero collision probabilities. It will take time to gather ample orbital data and assert where these objects will be decades into the future, fully ruling out any collision risks.
We may encounter objects that reach levels like 4 or 5 on the Turin scale, but the true threat level remains out of the ‘red zone.’ I doubt we’ll see such instances in anyone’s lifetime, or even our great-grandchildren’s. These events are incredibly rare. However, there are mechanisms for the public to recognize what to monitor and what to disregard.
As for lower scores on the Turin scale, they will become so routine that they will no longer garner public attention. People can trust astronomers to track interesting objects and ensure their eventual disappearance. The Turin Scale has fulfilled its purpose.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 reached a value of 3 on the Turin scale and then dropped to 0.
NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m Telescope/NMT
Was the Torino system effective during the incident with asteroid 2024 YR4 reaching level 3?
My colleague articulated the message effectively, reiterating that as we collected more data, we anticipated the object would become less concerning. This was our constant reassurance. The descriptions of the categories on the Turin Scale offer insights valuable to astronomers. We were highly confident that further data would eliminate Earth impact possibilities.
The confusion among the media and the public stemmed from misunderstanding the impact probability, which was consistently low. (At its peak, 2024 YR4 had a 3.1 percent impact probability.) As more data came in, the probability fluctuated—this is a natural outcome based on expanding our understanding. Initially, we observed an asteroid over a short trajectory, but extrapolating that trajectory significantly into the future could sometimes indicate higher projections. This increase was more of an adjustment process than a sign of danger.
What can you tell us about Apophis? It’s a 340-meter asteroid expected to come remarkably close to Earth in 2029 but is projected to miss. What gives us such confidence?
When discussing Apophis, I provide three key reassurances: Apophis will safely pass Earth. Apophis will safely pass Earth. Apophis will safely pass Earth. The confidence stems from over two decades of precise tracking, including radar signals reflecting off the asteroid to pinpoint its position within a meter. The margin of uncertainty regarding its close pass is a mere plus or minus 3 kilometers.
“
If we need to take action to mitigate an incoming asteroid, we possess the ability, provided we have sufficient time. “
Astronomers have been taking this object very seriously for the last 20 years. Initially, when it was discovered, it had a rating of 4 on the Turin scale, a unique occurrence for any object. However, it was only for a brief duration, maybe just a week, around Christmas 2004 when the asteroid attracted significant attention. I wanted to nickname it “The Grinch” since I was up late on Christmas Eve scrutinizing asteroid orbits until my family pulled me away.
NASA’s DART mission, which aimed to change an asteroid’s orbit, signifies a new chapter for planetary defense. How crucial was this mission?
DART represents a leap forward in our evolution as a species. No longer are we entirely at the mercy of the cosmos. DART illustrated our capacity to target and alter an object’s trajectory. This is a defining moment for humanity, asserting that if we need to counter an asteroid’s approach, we have the capabilities to do so—given we have the time.
Many still voice concerns about the threat of a giant asteroid potentially eradicating humanity. How has this perception evolved since your early involvement in the field?
We are making strides. It’s not an overwhelming concern; rather, it’s a manageable risk that we’ve come to better understand. Personally, after dedicating 50 years of my life as a scientist mostly funded by public resources, I feel a moral duty to advocate for the necessity of detecting serious asteroid threats, thereby fulfilling our responsibilities as scientists.
To illustrate, if we were unexpectedly surprised by an asteroid that we could have detected had we invested in telescopes a decade ago, it would signify a monumental oversight in scientific history. This is the primary frustration I harbor regarding asteroids: the idea that we haven’t fully done our jobs.
As Vera Rubin and the NEO surveyors become operational, it marks a significant advancement. We’re finally in a position to conduct thorough assessments and determine the potential threats posed by asteroids in the coming epochs. With our capacity to seek answers, it’s our responsibility to pursue them.
Gliese 251 is an early red dwarf star, ranking as the 74th closest star system to our Sun.
An artistic interpretation of the Gliese 251 system. Featuring Gliese 251c (left), its host star (right), and the already discovered planet Gliese 251b (center). Image credit: Michael Marcheschi / m2design.
You can find Gliese 251 as a bright M dwarf star, located at a distance of 5.58 parsecs (18 light years) in the constellation of Gemini.
Also known as GJ 251, HD 265866, or Wolf 294, this star is believed to host at least two super-Earths, Gliese 251b and Gliese 251c.
Initially discovered in 2020, Gliese 251b has a mass of 3.85 Earth masses and completes an orbit in 14.2 days.
The newly identified exoplanet, Gliese 251c, boasts a mass of 3.84 times that of Earth and has an orbital period of 53.6 days.
“With so many exoplanets now known, discovering new ones may not seem significant,” remarked Paul Robertson, an astronomer at the University of California, Irvine.
“The exceptional aspect is that its host star is nearby, roughly 18 light-years distant. From a cosmic perspective, it’s essentially in our neighborhood.”
Gliese 251c was detected using the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF), a state-of-the-art near-infrared spectrometer mounted on the Hobby-Eberly Telescope at McDonald Observatory in Texas.
This planetary signal was subsequently validated using the NEID spectrometer at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona.
Corey Beard, Data Scientist at Design West Technologies, states:
“While the discovery is statistically significant, we are still assessing the state of the planet due to instrument and methodological uncertainties.”
“Direct imaging of this candidate will rely on the next generation of telescopes and community investment.”
Given Gliese 251c’s closeness to Earth, it stands out as a prime candidate for future direct imaging studies utilizing the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT).
The TMT, with its large mirror, could potentially directly image dim exoplanets like Gliese 251c and verify the presence of water.
“TMT is anticipated to be the only telescope capable of capturing such details. These images will pertain to exoplanets,” Dr. Beard added.
“Such imaging isn’t feasible with smaller telescopes.”
The results from the research team were published in Astronomy Magazine.
_____
Corey Beard et al. 2025. Discovery of a nearby super-Earth candidate located in the habitable zone, suitable for direct imaging. A.J. 170, 279; doi: 10.3847/1538-3881/ae0e20
I acknowledge that there are already countless shows available at this stage. Every channel and streaming service is brimming with content that craves your attention, leaving us with limited hours to watch. However, I would like to suggest a new program called Space Live, which currently features just one episode. The only drawback is that the episodes seem to last indefinitely.
In truth, it’s not a program at all but rather a channel. The footage debuted on Wednesday morning and is available on ITVX, solely comprising live visuals of Earth transmitted from the International Space Station. This presentation is captivating, particularly for those unaware that one can feel both awe and boredom simultaneously.
It is claimed to be the world’s first. ITV has collaborated with the British space media firm Sen to utilize live 4K footage from their distinctive SpaceTV-1 video camera system on the International Space Station, providing three camera angles: one focused on the docking ports, a horizon view revealing sunrises and storms, and a downward camera as the ISS traverses over Earth. A tracker on the screen indicates the ISS’s real-time position, accompanied by an AI-driven information feed offering insights about geography and weather.
The Space Live footage is significantly enhanced compared to NASA footage. Photo: ITV
To be exact, one could argue that it’s not groundbreaking at all. NASA’s YouTube channel has been streaming footage from the ISS for years, attracting thousands of viewers consistently. Nevertheless, Space Live is a bit more sophisticated. The visuals are undoubtedly superior. For instance, at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Space Live presented stunning images of sunlight reflecting off the waters surrounding the Bay of Biscay, while NASA could only offer a piece of cloth inscribed with the word “Flap.” There’s even a relaxing soundtrack that loops repeatedly but doesn’t become overly irritating. In essence, it’s an upgrade.
And it’s truly captivating, at least during the first orbit. While we can’t wholly demonstrate the phenomenon known as the “overview effect,” which suggests that viewing Earth from space grants a fresh perspective on humanity, it is undeniably humbling to realize our planet’s smallness. The duration of the ISS’s journey from southeastern England (where I’m located) to conflict-ridden Ukraine is measured in mere seconds. Next, it would traverse across Asia to Australia. There’s hardly anything that separates us.
Inevitably, as the station glides around the Earth, eternally caught between sunrise and sunset, your thoughts drift to the people you know in various places. There’s a comforting quality to that.
However, one cannot remain in awe forever. The same goes for Space Live. Eventually, the enchantment of technology, perspective, and Earth’s beauty begins to fade, turning the experience akin to staring at a map on a plane when you’ve exhausted your movie options. Your focus starts to wander, and you realize that there are other live channels available on ITVX. One features Love Island, while others simply showcase Christmas movies. Then, with a sigh, you come to terms with the fact that the wonder of our only home, quietly revolving in the cosmos, has become just another content option—regardless of what ITV channel broadcasts American Ninja Warrior Jr.
The visuals are both breathtaking and reassuring. Photo: ITV
Nonetheless, it’s comforting to know that Space Live exists, even if it might not always capture your attention. It may not be something you’d typically expect to see on a large screen in a pub, unless a lively crowd gets excited about glimpsing the Ural River. As a background watch, though, it’s undeniably soothing. I suspect that for the select few, this channel will serve as a quiet companion as they navigate their daily routines.
And while that may not have been humanity’s initial motivation for achieving the incredible feat of breaking free from Earth’s constraints—let’s not forget that Neil Armstrong didn’t formally declare, “That’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for the screensaver industry”—the concept of Space Live is still delightful. I may not tune in all the time, but it will undoubtedly be my go-to source whenever I’m looking to reconnect with our essence and acknowledge how minimal the barriers are that divide us.
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Researchers from MIT and other institutions have discovered chemical fossils possibly left by ancient sponges on rocks dating back over 541 million years. These fossils consist of a distinctive type of sterlan, a stable variant of sterols found within the cell membranes of complex organisms. The team linked these sterlans to a category of sea sponges known as demosponges.
It highlights the picture representation of the ancient Stellan timeline, highlighting important compounds and their possible biological sources. Image credit: Shawar et al. , doi: 10.1073/pnas.2503009122.
“While I cannot precisely describe what these creatures looked like, I can assert they inhabited the ocean, had soft bodies, and likely lacked a silica skeleton,” stated MIT professor Roger Sammons.
In 2009, the researcher discovered the first chemical fossil believed to have originated from ancient sponges.
The team examined rock samples from outcrops in Oman and found an abundant sterlan they deduced to be a remnant of 30 carbon (C30) sterols—a rare steroid form attributed to ancient sea sponges.
Stellan was identified in very old rocks formed during the Ediacaran era (635-541 million years ago).
This era preceded the Cambrian period, which was marked by a sudden global explosion of complex, multicellular life forms.
The findings imply that ancient sponges may have existed far earlier than most multicellular organisms, potentially being one of the first animals on Earth.
Nevertheless, following the publication of these findings, alternative hypotheses emerged regarding the origin of C30 sterlan, suggesting that these chemicals could arise from other biological sources or non-organic geological processes.
The current study bolsters the initial hypothesis that ancient sponges produced this chemical record, as the researchers found new chemical fossils within the same promelat rock that were almost certainly biogenic.
Similar to previous studies, they searched for chemical fossils in rocks dating back to the Ediacaran period.
Samples were collected from drill cores and outcrops in Oman, West India, and Siberia, with analyses focused on the signatures of geologically stable sterols present in all eukaryotes (including plants, animals, and organisms with nuclear membranes).
“Without sterols or comparable membrane lipids, you cannot be classified as a eukaryote,” Professor Sammons remarked.
The chemical fossil identified in 2009 was 30-carbon sterols.
Additionally, the team deduced that these compounds could be synthesized due to distinct enzymes encoded by genes prevalent in demosponges.
“Finding sterols with 30 carbons is quite rare,” noted Dr. Lubna Shawar, a researcher at Caltech.
In this study, scientists concentrated on the chemistry of these compounds, observing that genes from the same sponge can produce even scarcer sterols with 31 carbon atoms (C31).
Upon analyzing rock samples of C31 sterlan, they discovered it was rich in the aforementioned C30 sterlan.
“These unique sterlans have been present all along,” Dr. Shawar remarked.
“We had to inquire the right questions to uncover them and truly comprehend what they signify and their origin.”
The researchers additionally procured samples of modern demosponges to examine for C31 sterols.
They determined that it is indeed a biological precursor of C31 sterlan found in rocks, observed in several species of contemporary demosponges.
Going further, they chemically synthesized eight different C31 sterols as reference materials to verify chemical structures.
The molecules were subjected to conditions simulating how sterols transform during deposition, burial, and pressurization over millions of years.
They found that two sterol-only products closely matched the structure of C31 sterols located in ancient rock samples.
The evidence from both substances strongly indicates that these compounds were created by living organisms rather than random non-biological processes.
Moreover, these organisms are likely ancestors of demosponges and still possess the capability to produce this set of compounds.
“It’s a blend of what’s present in the rock, what’s within the sponge, and what’s demonstrated in the lab,” explained Professor Sammons.
“Three supportive and concordant pieces of evidence strongly suggest these sponges are among Earth’s earliest animals.”
“This study illustrates how to authenticate biomarkers and confirm that the signals arise from life forms rather than contamination or abiogenic chemistry,” Dr. Shawar stated.
New Results were published this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
____
Lubuna Shawar et al. 2025. Chemical characterization of C31 sterols from the sponge and Neoproterozoic fossil star counterpart. PNAS 22 (41): E2503009122; doi: 10.1073/pnas.2503009122
A supernova may have directed cosmic rays towards Earth
Muratart/Shutterstock
Approximately 10 million years ago, a volatile star might have unleashed cosmic rays toward Earth, and astronomers are currently narrowing down the potential culprits behind this cosmic event.
Earlier this year, Dominique Koll of Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf and his colleagues in Germany discovered a spike in radioactive beryllium trapped in five kilometers of sediment in the Pacific Ocean, dating back over 10 million years. This form of beryllium is generated exclusively when cosmic rays collide with the Earth’s atmosphere, leading Koll and his team to hypothesize that a supernova explosion might be the origin of this event.
Nonetheless, alternative explanations cannot be dismissed. These include the Sun’s magnetic influence on Earth at that time and the possibility of ocean currents from Earth’s poles contributing to beryllium deposition, areas where cosmic rays and beryllium production are typically more intense.
Now, Efrem Maconi from the University of Vienna and his team have pinpointed two likely supernova candidates using data obtained from the Gaia space telescope.
By examining the trajectories of roughly 2,700 stars near our Sun over the past 20 million years and assessing their potential to produce supernovae, Macconi and his colleagues determined that there is a 70% probability of such events occurring among these star clusters.
Researchers have identified two possible progenitors for the explosion. The most probable one, located about 200 light years away, is a relatively young cluster named ASCC 20, while the cluster OCSN 61, situated further away, is also a potential source.
Additional support for the supernova theory is that 10 million years ago, our solar system was engulfed in a bustling region of the galaxy, surrounded by extensive clouds of gas, dust, and stars known as the Radcliffe waves.
“This is a promising indication that warrants further investigation,” says Koll. “If [Maconi] were to claim we could fully eliminate this possibility, I would happily accept that as a solid conclusion. However, in this instance, it certainly remains intriguing.”
Further modeling of stellar movements will be necessary to ascertain whether these stars indeed played a role, yet this hypothesis aligns well with other findings in Earth’s geological history. Unlike cosmic rays that travel close to the speed of light, dust moves much slower, making it plausible that beryllium spikes resulted from cosmic rays from a supernova initially impacting Earth.
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Moreover, the atmospheric pressure is equivalent to that found on Earth at an altitude of 35km (almost 115,000 feet), well above the cruising altitude of commercial flights. This sparse atmosphere is predominantly carbon dioxide, containing only minimal amounts of oxygen.
Additionally, liquid water is virtually nonexistent on Mars, with radiation levels being 400 times greater than those on Earth, and only rare instances of extremely saline trickles.
Nonetheless, certain Earth organisms have shown a remarkable ability to endure such harsh conditions.
The European Space Agency conducted a series of experiments between 2008 and 2016, exposing various organisms and seeds to simulated Martian conditions aboard the International Space Station.
Tardigrades, fungi, and some bacteria survived for over a year, but solely in dormant forms, such as spores and cysts.
Some lichens and algae went a step further, demonstrating actual metabolic activity when partially shielded from radiation—this could occur on Mars if they are embedded in soil or hidden within rock crevices.
In 2024, Chinese researchers discovered that various desert moss species (Syntrichia caninervis) could endure simulated Martian conditions. However, “tolerance” is far from thriving in such an environment.
Although the moss was able to recover after a week in the simulated Martian environment and returned to normal growth, researchers did not find evidence of metabolic activity, such as oxygen production, within the Martian setting.
But the challenges are even greater.
Mars has an average surface temperature of -63°C (-81°F) and an atmospheric pressure that corresponds to 35km (nearly 115,000 feet), along with radiation levels that are 400 times higher than on Earth.
Mars soil contains perchlorate, a problematic oxidizer that is toxic to cell functions and leads to DNA damage. Exposure to the ultraviolet radiation prevalent on Mars makes it even more reactive.
The Chinese experiments did not simulate perchlorate presence in the Martian environment. Had it been included, it likely would have obliterated the moss entirely.
Some fungi survive perchlorate, and several bacterial species can utilize it as an energy source, even breaking it down into harmless by-products. However, these species still require water and warmth to thrive.
Typically, when we store items, we employ various methods to eliminate bacteria and fungi or inhibit their growth.
We freeze food, dehydrate it, sterilize with UV light, soak it in saline solutions, or seal it in oxygen-removing containers. On Mars, all these methods are naturally enforced!
If we aimed to sterilize a planet, we could hardly surpass the existing conditions on Mars.
This article addresses the inquiry posed by Robin Mason of Manchester: “Is there anything on Earth that can withstand Martian conditions?”
Please send your questions via emailto Question @sciencefocus.com, or reach us throughFacebook,Twitter, orInstagramPage (please include your name and location).
Explore our ultimateFun fact for more astonishing science content.
Satellite images of the moon’s Antarctic region and Schrödinger Basin
NASA/Science Photo Library
The moon might endure far longer than previously thought, raising the concern of contaminating its surface before future lunar missions take place.
Space missions are required to follow the “Planetary Protection” policy, ensuring that microorganisms from Earth do not contaminate other celestial bodies.
Unlike Earth, where protective measures such as the atmosphere and magnetic fields exist, the moon’s surface faces intense high-energy particles from space, extreme temperatures, and harmful ultraviolet rays from the sun, making it a harsh habitat for surviving organisms.
As a result, many astronomers classify the moon’s surface as inherently barren. The Space Research Committee ranks it in the second lowest category of planetary protection, alongside Venus and comets, indicating that “spacecraft-mediated contamination could compromise investigations.”
Nonetheless, new findings from Stefano Bertone of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and colleagues indicate that in certain areas near the moon’s poles, which are set to be visited by NASA’s upcoming Artemis Mission, life might survive for several days, possibly over a week. This heightens the risk of contaminating these zones and generating misleading results in the search for extraterrestrial life.
“We’re returning to the moon, leaving traces behind. We need to study what kinds of traces we’re leaving and how to minimize them,” Bertone remarked at the Europlanet Science Congress (EPSC) in Helsinki, Finland, on September 12th.
Bertone and his team discovered five microbial species that show resilience to harsh environments, including black mold (Aspergillus niger) and bacteria Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus subtilis. They assessed how much ultraviolet radiation these organisms could withstand in their laboratory. They compiled data concerning UV levels on the moon’s surface, sunlight exposure, and temperature fluctuations, which allowed them to create a map indicating where these five organisms could survive for at least one day.
All living organisms can endure well-lit areas outside the permanently shadowed regions where sunlight and ultraviolet rays are absent, making these bright zones prime candidates for lunar exploration. The black mold exhibited the highest resilience, surviving in extensive areas for up to seven days.
“This is a significant study that clearly shows if there’s a risk of contamination, then certain actions need to be taken. However, we must also recognize that these actions have economic implications,” stated Stas Barabash from the Swedish Institute of Astrophysics. For instance, space agencies might decide that equipment requires more thorough sterilization, which could increase mission costs.
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Exciting indications suggest that one of the planets in the TRAPPIST-1 star system, located around 40 light-years away, may have an atmosphere suitable for life. However, scientists aim to obtain 15 additional images to confirm this.
TRAPPIST-1 is a small red star hosting at least seven planets. Discovered in 2016, it has become a focal point for astronomers hunting for extraterrestrial life, as three of its planets lie within the Goldilocks Zone, where liquid water can exist.
Ryan McDonald from St Andrews University, UK, states that the discovery of TRAPPIST-1 stirred considerable excitement among astronomers. However, subsequent imaging of three exoplanets—two of which are in the Goldilocks zone—did not identify any atmospheres, which was a letdown. Yet, McDonald and his team have maintained a focus on TRAPPIST-1e, situated at the center of this zone, and now hold a positive outlook.
In 2023, McDonald and colleagues utilized the James Webb Space Telescope to examine TRAPPIST-1e and have continued to enhance their images of this world. Through the analysis of starlight alterations as distant planets cross in front of stars, scientists can deduce the composition of atmospheres and identify beneficial life-sustaining chemicals.
Nonetheless, TRAPPIST-1’s classification as a red dwarf complicates these measurements due to its cooler nature compared to our sun. This cooling effect can lead to prevalent atmospheric chemicals like water also existing within the star itself. Consequently, it’s crucial to differentiate TRAPPIST-1e’s atmospheric signals from those of the star’s light. This challenging task requires innovative models and extensive effort. Initial findings suggest that TRAPPIST-1e may possess a life-friendly atmosphere, potentially representing a pivotal moment in the search for habitable conditions in the universe.
“The data exhibits fluctuations in accordance with atmospheric modeling, aligning well with nitrogen-rich atmospheres and possibly including methane,” remarks McDonald. “Among all the spectra collected from the TRAPPIST-1 system, this is the most promising, indicating potential atmospheric components.”
Should the nitrogen-rich atmosphere hypothesis be confirmed in subsequent analyses, McDonald states the next step will be to search for gases such as methane or carbon dioxide and utilize climate models to assess surface temperatures and the potential for liquid water.
However, the researchers caution that current data cannot entirely dismiss the possibility that TRAPPIST-1e is merely a barren rock. Additional observations are imperative. They have data from four JWST observations but aim for an additional 15 in the near future. “We need to minimize the error margins,” comments McDonald.
Matthew Jenge from Imperial College London notes that while many exoplanets are being discovered, astronomers are eager to pinpoint those with conditions conducive to life.
“Complexities arise because a planet can be in the right orbital zone but, with the wrong atmosphere, may become inhospitable like Venus. Astronomers are investigating numerous exoplanets, and eventually, one will likely be found with a nitrogen/oxygen-rich atmosphere. Photosynthesis may be key to achieving oxygen richness,” he says.
“If [TRAPPIST-1e] is habitable, consider what transpired on that planet over the past 7.6 billion years. The older the planet, the higher the likelihood of developing intelligent life,” he adds.
McDonald believes that by 2060, data may reveal multiple planets whose existence is hard to explain without including life forms, though he stresses that proving the existence of extraterrestrial life is still a distant goal. “We remain skeptical,” he concludes.
Following the successful testing of techniques using solar group spacecraft, it may soon be possible to forecast significant solar storms capable of disrupting Earth’s electronics by more than half a day in advance.
The Sun periodically emits powerful plasma bursts known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which create strong magnetic fields that can harm electronics on our planet. While satellites and telescopes do monitor CME indicators, their predictions depend on the magnetic field within each CME, making it challenging to identify which emissions will be hazardous.
One of the most reliable instruments for assessing these magnetic fields is found in satellites positioned in gravity-stable orbits around the Earth, known as Lagrange Points. Though these satellites are positioned hundreds of thousands of kilometers away, they exist at only about 1% of the distance to the Sun, which contributes to their ability to provide warnings about the intensity of a CME within an hour of its impact.
Now, Emma Davis from Glaz and her colleagues at Austria’s Space Meteorological Office have discovered a method utilizing the European Space Agency’s solar orbiter to issue earlier alerts. “Solar Orbiters are primarily a scientific mission and not specifically designed for this purpose,” Davis explains. “This is an added benefit from unforeseen alignments during a CME event.”
On March 17th and 23rd of this year, two sets of CMEs were heading toward Earth while the solar orbiter was positioned between our planet and the Sun. Davis and her team leveraged the spacecraft’s magnetic field and solar wind speed measurements to model the internal magnetic architecture of each CME and anticipate the severity of the geomagnetic storms they would induce. Remarkably, the entire forecasting process required less than five minutes, allowing predictions 7 and 15 hours before the events reached Earth.
Davis noted that their predictions closely aligned with the actual geomagnetic strengths observed, which she found remarkable considering the dynamic changes the CME’s magnetic fields undergo as they approach Earth. “The fortunate aspect was that not many unexpected events occurred, and these CMEs behaved rather predictably,” she adds.
She cautions that upcoming storms may not follow the same predictable patterns and that determining the exact arrival time of these storms remains challenging, with uncertainties lasting several hours.
Nevertheless, she underscores the importance of real-time measurements once a CME departs from the Sun. Chris Scott from the University of Reading, UK, who was not part of this research, noted, “It provides an early indication of the potential configuration of the magnetic fields within each eruption.”
However, data from these two events alone are insufficient for fine-tuning predictive models, and further observations are essential before establishing reliable, specialized solar storm monitoring missions near the Sun, Scott concludes.
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On July 20th and July 23rd, 2025, NASA’s Psyche spacecraft captured images of Earth and the Moon from a distance of approximately 290 million km (180 million miles). The spacecraft’s twin cameras took several long exposure photographs, showcasing the two celestial bodies as glimmering dots in the sunlight against the backdrop of the Aries constellation.
Psyche imaged Earth and the Moon, approximately 290 million km (180 million miles) away in July 2025. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU.
Psyche is NASA’s mission aimed at studying metal-rich asteroids located in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
This mission marks NASA’s first endeavor to examine asteroids composed primarily of metal rather than rock and ice.
Psyche launched on October 13, 2023, at 10:19 AM aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from the Kennedy Space Center.
By August 2029, the spacecraft will begin its exploration of asteroids that scientists believe are remnants of planetary cores due to their high metal content.
“The multispectral imager equipment features a pair of identical cameras equipped with filters and telescope lenses designed to capture the asteroid’s surface using light across various wavelengths,” stated a member of the mission’s science team.
“The color and shape of the asteroid’s spectrum can provide insights into its composition.”
“For instance, the Moon and the large asteroid Vesta exhibit similar spectral ‘bumps and wiggles’ that scientists could potentially identify in Psyche.”
Researchers are interested in Psyche as it may enhance our understanding of how rocky planets with metallic cores, including Earth, were formed.
When selecting targets for imaging tests and calibration, they seek bodies that reflect sunlight similarly to Psyche.
This allows for comparisons with previous data obtained from telescopes or spacecraft observing these familiar spectral objects.
Earlier this year, Psyche pointed its cameras toward Jupiter and Mars for calibration purposes, and the results were successful.
To monitor changes in imager performance, researchers are also comparing data from various tests.
This ensures that when the spacecraft enters orbit around Psyche, the equipment will function as anticipated.
“We’re thrilled about the opportunity to further our understanding through our efforts,” remarked Dr. Jim Bell, Psyche Imager Instrument Lead at Arizona State University.
“We gather ‘trading cards’ from these distinct celestial bodies and run them through the calibration pipeline to ensure data accuracy.”
Psyche wasn’t the only instrument that underwent successful checkouts in July 2025.
The mission team also tested the spacecraft’s magnetometer and gamma-ray and neutron spectrometer, a routine procedure conducted every six months.
“Everything is operational and functioning well,” stated Dr. Bob Mas, the mission project manager at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
“We aim to fly by Mars in May 2026, having accomplished all planned activities for the cruise phase.”
“This flyby represents the next significant milestone for the spacecraft, utilizing the gravitational pull of Mars to assist in reaching Psyche.”
“This will be the first of two planned loops around the solar system, marking the initial 1.6 billion km (1 billion miles) journey since its launch from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in October 2023.”
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