Greenhouse gas emissions have led to a temperature rise of 1.44°C from pre-industrial levels
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Experts now warn that the world may experience its first year with warming exceeding 2°C by the decade’s end.
Each year, researchers at the Met Office, the UK’s National Weather Service, analyze observational climate data and collaborate with global agencies to forecast the climate for the next five years.
Their projections indicate that by 2029, the average annual temperature could surpass 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a significant and alarming point in the climate crisis.
“Just a few years ago, this seemed implausible,” stated Adam Scaife during a Met Office briefing. He labeled such an occurrence as “entirely unprecedented.”
The objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an additional target of restricting the increase to below 1.5°C. These goals require stability in temperature rise for decades.
Last year marked the initial instance of temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark, attributed to escalating emissions and strong El Niño conditions. There exists an 86% probability that at least one of the next five years will breach this threshold. Global to 10 Years Climate Update produced by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed this information.
Additionally, there is a 70% probability that the average warming will surpass 1.5°C in the 2025-2029 timeframe, up from a 47% chance in the 2024 report on the 2024-2028 period. Scaife remarked, “These new forecasts imply we are close to experiencing a year with an average increase of 1.5°C being typical.” “These numbers are alarming.”
According to estimates from the WMO/MET office team, there’s about a 1% chance of seeing warming above 2°C. “While it’s a rare event, it’s not impossible,” said Leon Hermanson, during a Met Office update. “It’s not the scenario we want, but it is what science predicts.”
Scaife emphasized that if the average annual temperature exceeds 2°C, a “perfect storm” of elements will likely be necessary. These may include a robust El Niño that drives heat from the Pacific, intensifying warming across Eurasia, alongside a positive Arctic oscillation.
However, despite the currently low odds, the likelihood of experiencing a 2°C year is projected to rise sharply over the coming years unless there is a marked decrease in greenhouse gas emissions.
It has only been a decade since the Met Office and WMO first affirmed the potential for temperatures to exceed 1.5°C. At present, the world is perilously close to breaching this threshold, with the report estimating that the long-term average temperature is currently 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.
“Where we stood at 1.5°C back in 2015 is now where we find ourselves at 2°C,” remarked Hermanson. “If current trends continue, that probability will increase rapidly.”
Chris Hewitt of the WMO stated that there remains a chance to avert the direst consequences of climate change. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” he emphasized, pointing out the need for drastic emission reductions to approach the 1.5°C target.
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Source: www.newscientist.com
