The quantum computing industry is concluding the year with renewed hope, despite the absence of fully operational quantum systems. At December’s Q2B Silicon Valley Conference, industry leaders and scientists expressed optimism regarding the future of quantum computing.

“We believe that it’s highly likely that someone, or perhaps several entities, will develop a genuinely industrially viable quantum computer, but we didn’t anticipate this outcome until the end of 2025,” stated Joe Altepeter, program manager for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). The QBI aims to evaluate which of the competing quantum computing approaches can yield practical devices capable of self-correction or fault tolerance.

This initiative will extend over several years, involving hundreds of professional evaluators. Reflecting on the program’s initial six months, Altepeter noted that while “major roadblocks” were identified in each approach, none disqualified any team from the pursuit of practical quantum devices.

“By late 2025, I sense we will have all major hardware components in place with adequate fidelity; the remaining challenges will be primarily engineering-focused,” asserted Scott Aaronson, a key figure in the field, during his presentation at the University of Texas at Austin. He acknowledged the ongoing challenge of discovering algorithms for practical quantum applications, but highlighted significant progress in hardware developments.

Though quantum computing hardware advancements are encouraging, application development is lagging, according to Ryan Babush from Google. During the conference, Google Quantum AI alongside partners unveiled the finalists for the XPRIZE competition, aiming to accelerate application development.

The research by the seven finalists spans simulations of biomolecules crucial for human health, algorithms enhancing classical simulations for clean energy materials, and calculations that could impact the diagnosis and treatment of complex health issues.

“A few years back, I was skeptical about running applications on quantum computers, but now my interest has significantly increased,” remarked John Preskill, a pivotal voice in quantum computing at Caltech, advocating for the near-term application of quantum systems in scientific discovery.

Over the past year, numerous quantum computers have been employed for calculations, including the physics of materials and high-energy particles, potentially rivaling or surpassing traditional computational methods.

While certain applications are deemed particularly suitable for quantum systems, challenges remain. For instance, Pranav Gokhale at Inflection, a company manufacturing quantum devices from cryogenic atoms, is implementing Scholl’s algorithm—a classic method capable of breaking many encryption systems used by banks today. However, this initial implementation still lacks the computational power necessary to effectively decrypt real-world encrypted information, illustrating that significant enhancements in both hardware and software are essential.

Dutch startup Quantware has proposed a solution to the industry’s major hardware challenge, asserting that increasing quantum computer size can enhance computational capacity while maintaining reliability. Their quantum processor unit design aims to utilize 10,000 qubits, roughly 100 times the capacity of most current superconducting quantum computers. According to Matt Reilersdam, QuantWare anticipates having its first device operational within two and a half years. Other firms, such as IBM and Quantinuum, are working toward similar large-scale quantum systems, while QuEra aims to fabricate 10,000 qubits from ultra-cold atoms within a year, intensifying the competitive landscape.

Moreover, the quantum computing industry is projected to expand significantly, with global investments expected to rise from $1.07 billion in 2024 to approximately $2.2 billion by 2027, as noted in a Quantum Computing Industry Survey by Hyperion Research.

“More individuals than ever can now access quantum computers, and I believe they will accomplish things we can scarcely imagine,” said Jamie Garcia from IBM.