What does it mean to lose your home because of climate change? About 10,000 residents of Tuvalu will soon find out.

With an average elevation of less than 3 meters, Tuvalu is on the brink of becoming uninhabitable due to floods, storm surges, and erosion. By 2100, a predicted rise in sea levels of 72 centimeters could result in one-third of the Coral Atoll Archipelago being submerged annually.

Yet, there are escape options for the people of Tuvalu. In late 2023, the Australian government revealed plans for the world’s first organized migration program.

Under the Australian-Tuvalu-Falapilli Union Treaty, 280 Tuvaluans will be granted residency in Australia each year through a lottery system. The inaugural lottery opened on June 16 and received applications from 3,125 citizens—nearly a third of Tuvalu’s population. Registration for this year’s lottery closes on July 18.

In a statement to New Scientist, the Australian government acknowledged the “devastating effects of climate change, especially in the Pacific, which faces challenges related to climate, security, and wellbeing.”

“This is the first agreement of its kind globally, offering a dignified migration pathway as climate conditions worsen,” the government commented.

Successful lottery applicants will learn their results by the end of July, with the first migrants likely to arrive in Australia by year-end.

Bateteba Aselu, a PhD student at the University of Melbourne, examines the climate challenges facing her people. On a student visa in Australia, Aselu is considering applying for the lottery to join her husband, while her son, a recent high school graduate, has already submitted his application.

Aselu notes that the impacts of climate change are visible, as the freshwater aquifers critical for agriculture and drinking water are becoming saline due to rising sea levels. This forces residents to uproot crops in an attempt to mitigate saltwater intrusion.

Stephen Howes from the Australian National University in Canberra describes the new visa as “very progressive,” providing successful applicants access to nearly all Australian health and welfare benefits without discrimination based on chronic health conditions, disabilities, age, or other factors.

While ostensibly aimed at aiding Tuvalu in the face of a climate crisis, Howes asserts that Australia’s initiative also serves to counteract China’s influence in the Pacific. The treaty outlines that Australia and Tuvalu “must collaborate on security and defense matters pertaining to the island nations and external countries.”

“I view it as a security transition agreement,” Howes explains. “Climate change serves as a backdrop, but the arrangement essentially provides Australia with enhanced security cooperation in return for offering Tuvalu a unique migration pathway.”

Jane McAdam at the University of New South Wales in Sydney reports varied perspectives on the future among Tuvaluans. Some believe the island will soon be submerged, while others hold hope. She notes that elderly residents express a desire to remain there until their last days.

However, McAdam considers the new migration program to be a “fair and constructive” initiative. A key feature is that once Tuvaluans secure a visa, they can return home whenever they wish or even live there until conditions become unbearable.

It’s “like having an oxygen mask on an airplane,” McAdam adds. “Ideally, you won’t need it, but you’ll be grateful it exists.”

Wesley Morgan, also at the University of New South Wales, remarked that, should conditions worsen, Tuvaluans face limited escape routes. This agreement could pave the way for similar opportunities for other at-risk nations like Kiribati.

“This could set a precedent as the first instance where migration pathways are explicitly linked to climate change and rising sea levels,” Morgan states. “Given these unique circumstances, Australia might explore comparable arrangements with Kiribati in the future.”

A remaining concern for the Tuvaluan population is how they will navigate their identity and sovereignty once they leave the island. Will they be considered a Tuvaluan diaspora or a nation in climate exile?

“If you had to leave your childhood home due to circumstances beyond your control, how would it feel?” Aselu asks. “Would you feel lost? Absolutely. It’s that sentiment of losing a cherished place that defines who you are, regardless of where you are in the world.”

“You grow up there; your history resides there. It’s where your identity is rooted, no matter where you go afterwards.”