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“Are we really in an AI bubble?” asked a reader of last month’s column about the apparently unstoppable rise of Nvidia. “And how do we know that?” That was a good question, so he asked the AI, which pointed out:
investmentpedia, written by someone who knows this stuff. Bubbles taught me that he goes through five stages.
Elisabeth Kubler-Ross said that people live with sadness.. For investment bubbles, the five stages are displacement, boom, euphoria, profit taking, and panic. So let’s see how this maps onto our previous experience with AI.
First, displacement. It’s easy. It was ChatGPT wotdunnit. When it appeared on November 30, 2022, the world just went crazy. Then everyone realized,
this That’s exactly what was being tweeted around AI! And people were fascinated by the discovery that they could talk to machines, and that machines could talk to them (well, write them) back in coherent sentences. it was done. It was like the moment people saw in the spring of 1993.
mosaicthe first proper web browser, and suddenly the pennies dropped.
this That was the purpose of the “Internet”. And Netscape held his initial public offering in August 1995, stock prices skyrocketed, and the first Internet bubble began to inflate.
Second stage: Boom. With the launch of ChatGPT, all the big tech companies have actually been playing with this AI technology for years, but were too scared to tell the world due to the inherent instability of the technology. It became clear that it couldn’t be done. But once the ChatGPT creator let his OpenAI let the cat out of the bag, fomo (fear of missing out) took over. And other companies have learned that Microsoft stole their advances by secretly investing in his OpenAI, and in doing so gained privileged access to his powerful GPT-4 large-scale multimodal model. This realization created a sense of alarm. Microsoft’s president, Satya Nadella, inadvertently revealed that his intention was to make Google “dance.” If that was indeed his plan, it worked.Google, which considered itself a leader in machine learning, released Bard chatbot
before you’re ready Then he retreated amidst the voices of ridicule.
But that excitement also stirs up the lower echelons of technology, and suddenly there’s a surge in startups being founded by entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs who see the big “foundation” model of tech companies as a platform on which new things can be built. I saw it.
Once you look at the web As such a basic foundation. These seedlings were funded in the old-fashioned way by venture capitalists, but some of them were funded by tech companies and companies like his Nvidia, which was producing hardware that could allegedly build the future of AI. received significant investment from both.
The third stage of the cycle, euphoria, is the stage we are in now. The winds of caution are shifting, and ostensibly rational companies are betting huge sums of money on AI. OpenAI boss Sam Altman began by saying,
Raise $7 trillion from Middle East oil states For the big push to create AGI (artificial general intelligence). He also partnered with Microsoft to
stargate supercomputer. All of this seems to be based on articles of faith. So to create a superintelligent machine, all you need is (a) infinitely more data and (b) infinitely more computing power. And the strange thing is that at the moment the world seems to be taking these fantasies at face value.
This begins the fourth stage of the cycle: profit taking. At this point, an astute operator notices that the process is becoming unstable and initiates an escape before the bubble bursts. No one is actually making money from AI yet, except the companies that build the hardware, so maybe the people who own stock in Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet (née Google). Other than that, there are very few benefits to be gained. It turns out that this generative AI is great at spending money, but not great at generating investment returns.
Stage 5 – Panic – awaits. At some stage the bubble gets punctured and a rapid downward curve begins as people scramble to get out while they can. In the case of AI, it is unclear what triggers this process. Governments may eventually grow tired of out-of-control giant corporations draining investors’ money. Or will shareholders come to the same conclusion? Or finally realizing that AI technology is causing an environmental disaster. Data centers cannot be spread all over the earth.
But it will burst someday. Nothing grows exponentially forever. So, back to the first question. Are we in an AI bubble? Is the Pope a Catholic?
Source: www.theguardian.com
