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AI-Driven Route Planning Reduces Climate-Warming Contrails on Over 100 Flights

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Impact of Contrails on Global Warming

Contrails Major Contributors to Air Travel’s Global Warming Impact

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A comprehensive study examining thousands of flights between the United States and Europe revealed that contrails—those vapor trails left by aircraft—are less likely to form when planes follow artificial intelligence (AI)-recommended flight paths aimed at minimizing their global warming impact.

Contrails, created from soot particles emitted by aircraft engines, are believed to contribute significantly to warming, potentially surpassing the effects of carbon dioxide alone. Recent research indicates that certain icy areas in the upper atmosphere are more prone to contrail formation, and AI technology can predict these zones using detailed weather forecasts.

Despite the promising results from small-scale trials where aircraft avoid these high-contrail areas, such practices have not yet been widely implemented in commercial aviation.

In the study, Dinesh Sanekom and colleagues from Google utilized an AI-controlled contrail prediction tool to advise on flight routes in a randomized controlled trial involving over 2,400 flights with American Airlines.

This trial included overnight flights from the U.S. to Europe and spanned approximately 17 weeks, from January to May 2025. These flights specifically targeted nighttime, as contrails have an intensified warming effect during these hours due to reduced sunlight that reflects back into space during the day.

Flight routes between certain city pairs were randomly divided into two groups. The first group had the option to select an AI-optimized route that would result in fewer contrails, while the second group received no alternative route suggestions.

Although dispatchers were offered the opportunity to choose contrail-minimizing routes within the first group, only 112 of the 1,232 flights opted for these alternatives, primarily due to operational considerations such as cost and safety, Sanecom noted.

Analysis using satellite imagery of the flight paths indicated that flights adhering to AI-suggested contrail-optimized routes experienced a remarkable 62% reduction in visible contrails. When considering all flights that could have chosen these optimized routes, the overall decrease in contrail formation reached 11.6% compared to the control group.

“This supports our hypothesis that there is a scalable approach to implementing contrail avoidance across numerous flights if we can integrate it effectively and safely into flight planning,” Sanecom asserts.

Researchers calculate the global warming impact of air travel was diminished by 13.7% for the entire group utilizing the suggested routes, while flights using the optimized routes saw a substantial 69.3% decrease. Notably, no significant variations in fuel consumption were recorded between the groups.

“This approach is currently the most effective with the tools available,” states Edward Griespeerdt from Imperial College London. “The observed 62% reduction in contrails is unlikely to have occurred by chance.”

However, due to the intricacies of flight planning, it’s uncertain how much the 11.6% reduction could be realized in actual commercial operations, he added. “Scaling this to achieve a 60% reduction in contrails on every flight isn’t straightforward, but even a 10% reduction could yield a meaningful impact.”

Article updated on March 20, 2026

This article has been revised to reflect more accurate information regarding flight path modifications.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Google Adjusts Over 100 Flights to Reduce Climate-Warming Contrails

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Contrails and Global Warming

Most of the global warming effect from aviation is attributed to contrails.

Tack/imageBROKER/Shutterstock

A recent study involving thousands of flights between the United States and Europe indicates that contrails—a factor in global warming—are significantly reduced when aircraft follow AI-recommended flight paths.

These condensation trails, formed by soot particles from aircraft engines, are suspected to contribute more to global warming than the carbon dioxide emissions from airplanes. Additionally, research indicates that specific icy regions in the upper atmosphere are more prone to contrail formation, and AI can effectively utilize detailed weather forecasts to identify these areas.

Initial small-scale trials demonstrate that rerouting planes can diminish contrail formation, yet this method has not been extensively implemented for commercial flights.

In a collaborative study, Dinesh Sanekom and his team at Google employed an AI-based contrail prediction tool to optimize flight routes during a randomized controlled trial involving over 2,400 American Airlines flights.

This examination spanned approximately 17 weeks from January to May 2025 and included eastbound flights from the U.S. to Europe at night, when contrails are known to exert a stronger warming influence. During daylight, contrails tend to reflect solar radiation, thus generating a cooling effect.

Each flight path between two cities was randomly allocated to one of two groups. The first group had access to an AI-optimized route in their flight planning software, allowing them to select paths with fewer contrails; in contrast, the second group received no such suggestions.

Though dispatchers in the first group had the choice of selecting contrail-optimized routes, logistical concerns led only 112 out of 1,232 flights to opt for alternate paths, according to Sanecom.

AI analysis using satellite imagery revealed that flights utilizing contrail-optimized routes suggested by air traffic controllers experienced a 62% decrease in visible contrail formation. When considering all flights with access to contrail-optimized routes, the overall contrail reduction compared to the control group was 11.6%.

“These findings validate our hypothesis that scalable routes can effectively mitigate contrail formation on numerous flights, provided we safely and accurately integrate this process into flight planning,” says Sanecom.

Researchers estimated that the overall global warming impact of flights was reduced by 13.7% for the group utilizing the suggested routes, and by as much as 69.3% for flights that implemented the optimized routing. Notably, there was no significant difference in fuel consumption between the two groups.

“This approach may represent the most effective solution available today,” states Edward Grisspeed from Imperial College London. “The observed 62% reduction in contrails identified by satellite is unlikely to be coincidental.”

However, due to the intricacies of flight planning, the extent of the 11.6% reduction may not entirely reflect real-world operations, as Grisspeed notes: “It’s challenging to extrapolate this to achieve a 60% reduction in contrails for every flight. Even a 10% reduction, though, would create a meaningful impact.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Google Reroutes Over 100 Flights to Reduce Climate-Warming Contrails: A Sustainable Aviation Initiative

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Impact of Contrails on Global Warming

Contrails are the primary contributor to the global warming impact of flights.

Credit: Tuck/imageBROKER/Shutterstock

A groundbreaking study involving thousands of flights between the United States and Europe reveals that contrails are less frequent when airplanes follow AI-recommended flight paths designed to minimize global warming impacts.

Research indicates that contrails, formed by soot particles from aircraft engines, may cause more warming than the carbon dioxide emitted by airplanes. Certain icy regions in the upper atmosphere are particularly conducive to contrail formation, and AI tools can leverage detailed weather forecasts to identify these areas.

While initial trials suggest rerouting aircraft can effectively reduce contrail formation, this practice has yet to be implemented on a large scale for commercial flights.

Researcher Dinesh Sanekom and his team utilized an AI contrail prediction tool in a randomized controlled trial, examining over 2,400 real-world American Airlines flights.

This study, which included an eastbound flight from the U.S. to Europe, was conducted over approximately 17 weeks from January to May 2025. The flights took place at night, a period when contrails are known to exert a more pronounced warming effect, contrasting with daytime flights that reflect sunlight and create a cooling effect.

Each flight route was randomly allocated to one of two experimental groups. In the first group, air traffic controllers could opt for an AI-optimized route with fewer contrails, while the second group received no alternative route suggestions.

Despite the availability of contrail-optimized routes in the first group, only 112 out of 1,232 flights actually chose a different route due to factors such as costs, safety, and operational constraints, as noted by Sanekom.

AI analysis of satellite images demonstrated that flights utilizing contrail-optimized routes suggested to air traffic controllers saw a remarkable 62% reduction in visible contrails. Overall, considering all flights with the option to select a contrail-optimized route, the effective reduction in contrail formation was 11.6% compared to the control group.

“This validates our hypothesis that this approach can be scaled to enhance contrail avoidance across many flights, provided we can safely and accurately integrate it into existing flight planning systems,” says Sanekom.

Estimates suggest that the overall impact of these flights on global warming was reduced by 13.7% for the entire group employing the proposed routes, with a staggering 69.3% reduction for those using the optimized routes. Fuel consumption showed no statistically significant differences between the groups.

“This methodology appears to be the most effective approach available today,” states Edward Grisspeed from Imperial College London. “The 62 percent reduction in contrails observed suggests this is not a random occurrence.”

However, the intricacies of flight planning make it challenging to predict how much the initial 11.6% reduction might improve in real-world scenarios. According to Grisspeed, “While we cannot simply scale this up to achieve a 60% reduction in contrails on every flight, even an overall reduction of 10% represents a significant environmental benefit.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Google Reroutes Hundreds of Flights to Reduce Climate-Warming Contrails

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Contrails and Global Warming Impact

The Major Role of Contrails in Air Travel’s Global Warming Impact

Credit: Tuck/imageBROKER/Shutterstock

A recent extensive study involving thousands of flights between the United States and Europe revealed that contrails form less frequently when aircraft follow AI-recommended flight paths aimed at minimizing their global warming impact.

Contrails, the condensation streaks produced by soot particles from aircraft engines, are believed to contribute significantly to global warming—potentially more than the carbon dioxide emissions from planes. Recent research indicates that specific icy regions of the upper atmosphere are more prone to contrail formation, and AI can effectively leverage detailed weather forecasts to predict these locations.

Preliminary trials have demonstrated that directing planes away from these contrail-prone areas effectively reduces their formation. However, this strategy has yet to be widely implemented in commercial aviation.

According to Dinesh Sanekom and his team at Google, an AI-based contrail prediction tool was employed to offer route guidance in a randomized controlled trial encompassing over 2,400 real-world American Airlines flights.

The trial featured a one-way eastbound route from the U.S. to Europe, conducted over approximately 17 weeks from January to May 2025. These flights were scheduled at night when contrails are known to have a more intensive warming effect, contrasting with daytime flights, which tend to reflect sunlight and create a cooling effect.

Each flight path between two cities was randomly divided into two groups. The first group had the choice of an AI-optimized route designed to produce fewer contrails, while the second group received no alternative routing suggestions.

In the first group, air traffic controllers had the opportunity to select a contrail-reducing route; however, only 112 out of 1,232 flights actually opted for this alternative due to cost, safety, and operational concerns, as mentioned by Sanekom.

Analysis of satellite imagery showed that flights opting for contrail-optimized routes experienced a remarkable 62% reduction in visible contrails. Overall, when considering all flights offered a contrail-optimized option, the reduction in contrail formation was approximately 11.6% compared to the control group.

“This validates our hypothesis that this is a scalable method for minimizing contrail formation across numerous flights if we find a way to safely and accurately incorporate it into the flight planning process,” states Sanekom.

The researchers project that the overall global warming impact from flights was diminished by 13.7% for the entire group using the recommended route, and by 69.3% for those employing the optimized route. Notably, there were no significant differences in fuel consumption between the groups.

“This approach could be the optimal solution, at least given our current resources,” says Edward Grisspeed from Imperial College London. “The 62% contrail reduction observed via satellite is unlikely to be coincidental.”

However, due to the complexities involved in flight planning, Grisspeed noted the real-world scalability of the 11.6% reduction remains uncertain. “It’s not guaranteed that we can achieve a 60% reduction in contrails for every flight, but even a 10% decrease would have a significant impact.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Your Flight’s Emissions Are Significantly Greater Than the Carbon Calculator Indicates

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Contrails from aircraft may amplify the warming effects of air travel

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If you’re using a carbon footprint calculator to assess your flight’s environmental impact, prepare for some surprises. The true effect of air travel can be significantly higher than what most CO₂ calculators indicate.

“These figures are quite alarming,” states Juma Sadukhan from the University of Surrey, UK. She and her team assessed four popular calculators against the one they developed.

For instance, consider a first-class flight on a B777 from Singapore to Zurich. At the time of this research, calculators from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated the emissions to be around 3000 kilograms of CO₂. In contrast, the Google Travel Impact Model (TIM) places the estimate around 5,000 kg, while MyClimate suggests about 8,000 kg. However, the in-flight emissions calculator developed by Sadukhan and her team estimates the actual emissions exceed 14,000 kg.

“The implications are substantial,” adds team member Eduardo Goan, in collaboration with the Austria-based Therme Group.

The new tool, called the Airline Passenger Dynamic Emissions Calculator (ATP-DEC), diverges from existing calculators in two main ways. Firstly, instead of assuming flights take a perfect route, it utilizes historical data to ascertain the most probable route, actual flight duration, and the time spent taxiing before takeoff and after landing, including the typical occupancy of the aircraft.

Unlike other calculators, this one is dynamic, as past flight data is continuously updated according to Goan. For example, many flights are now taking longer paths due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a change that other calculators fail to recognize.

The second key difference is that ATP-DEC accounts for all the known factors influencing flight’s climate impact, such as contrail formation, nitrogen dioxide emissions, and water vapor. Notably, contrails can exert a greater warming influence than CO₂ emissions alone.

Other flight calculators often omit these factors or use generalized data. “They don’t adjust according to the type of aircraft, fuel efficiency, or environmental conditions,” says Sadukhan. “Our tool is far more comprehensive.”

Goan mentions that the team plans to make this calculator publicly accessible and is working on an app slated for release early next year. “If an airline wishes to incorporate ATP-DEC, they could start immediately,” he says, though establishing the necessary data connections might take weeks or even months.

Current flight emissions calculators may allow travelers to voluntarily contribute a modest fee to “offset” their carbon footprint. Nonetheless, several studies indicate that many offset programs fail to fulfill their claims.

An ICAO representative stated that the methodology for ICAO’s carbon emissions calculations can be accessed at: its website. “This calculator does not consider the climate change impacts of aircraft emissions using radiative forcing indices.” They noted that “Such multipliers need to be factored in, given the lack of a scientific consensus.”

“TIM is a free, precise, and transparent resource that assists consumers in selecting flights with lower emissions,” affirmed Dan Rutherford from the International Clean Transportation Council, a nonprofit organization that guides Google on enhancing its CO₂ calculator. “We will keep refining the model, including the integration of short-lived climate pollutants like contrails, to enhance its utility for the flying public.”

“We find this study to be a valuable contribution to the ongoing dialogue,” stated Kai Landwehr from MyClimate. Landwehr emphasized that no single method is foolproof due to the uncertainties surrounding the impacts of global warming, such as those resulting from contrails. However, utilizing improved and current data can boost accuracy. “We intend to update the calculator in the upcoming months to integrate best practices and insights from this research.”

IATA has also been approached for comments.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Private Space Flights Conclude with Pacific Splashdown for Astronauts from India, Poland, and Hungary

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Cape Canaveral, Florida – a Private Space Flight from Poland and Hungary, featuring India’s first astronaut in over 40 years, concluded on Tuesday with a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.

The SpaceX capsules detached from the International Space Station on Monday and parachuted into waters off Southern California less than 24 hours later.

Hungarian Tibor Kapu emerged from SpaceX capsules in Southern California on Tuesday.
SpaceX via AP

The four-member crew launched nearly three weeks ago on a mission arranged by Axiom Space from Houston.

Axiom’s Peggy Whitson, the most seasoned U.S. astronaut, served as commander. She was joined by Shuvansch Shukla from India, Slouz Uznansky Wysniewsky from Poland, and Tibor Kap from Hungary, with the countries collectively investing over $65 million in the mission.

SpaceX capsules carrying four astronauts parachute into the Pacific Ocean off Southern California on Tuesday.
SpaceX via AP

“Thank you for the wonderful ride and safe journey,” Whitson remarked post-splashdown. Her record now surpasses that of other American astronauts and women, encompassing a total of 695 days in space across five missions.

The visiting astronauts executed numerous experiments in orbit, celebrating their heritage. The last instance of India, Poland, and Hungary sending individuals into space was in collaboration with the Soviet Union during the late 1970s and 1980s. They waved and smiled as they exited the capsule one by one into the dim early morning.

Poland’s Slouz Uznanski Wysniewski made landfall in Southern California on Tuesday.
SpaceX via AP

This marked Axiom’s fourth mission for the orbital forward base since 2022 and is part of NASA’s ongoing efforts to expand access to space for more businesses and individuals. The company is among those developing their own space stations to succeed the current one. NASA plans to retire its space station by 2030 after over 30 years of service.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Reduced number of flights may decrease prediction accuracy

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The National Weather Service has been releasing weather observations at over 100 sites across the country for decades, operating like clockwork in the Pacific and Caribbean.

Meteorologists launch balloons equipped with radiozond devices twice a day at 8am and 8pm ET. These balloons rise about 15 feet every 2 hours, collecting data on temperature, humidity, and wind speed as they ascend through the atmosphere. The data is transmitted back using radio waves.

When the balloons reach a certain altitude, they pop and descend back to Earth with parachutes, completing their mission. The data gathered from these balloons is crucial for feeding into weather models that form the basis of forecasts in the United States.

However, many of the launch sites have been impacted by staffing cuts under the Trump administration, leading to reduced launches and restrictions. Meteorologists and experts are concerned that these changes will compromise forecast quality and increase risks during severe weather events.

The cuts in balloon launches are part of a broader downsizing effort across federal agencies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service, has seen significant staff reductions and budget cuts.

Recent announcements about balloon launch suspensions in various locations across the country have raised concerns among meteorologists. These cuts could have implications for weather forecasting accuracy, particularly in regions prone to severe weather events.

Weather balloons play a critical role in providing high-resolution data on atmospheric conditions, which is essential for accurate weather modeling. Without this data, forecasters may struggle to predict events like storms and precipitation types.

Private companies are attempting to fill the gaps left by the National Weather Service cuts, but it is unlikely they will fully replace the services provided by NOAA. These companies are looking to expand coverage and enhance existing data collection efforts.

The impact of these cuts on weather forecasting remains to be seen, but there is concern among experts that forecast accuracy could suffer without the crucial data collected by weather balloons.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Elon Musk and the astronaut lamented how politics hindered space flights

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Musk referred to Mogensen as an “idiot” and used a light pejorative term that escalated quickly.

“SpaceX could have brought them back a few months ago.” The tweet was posted. “I presented this directly to the Biden administration, and they rejected it. The return was delayed for political reasons. Idiot.”

Mogensen, who shuttled between the space station on a SpaceX rocket and capsule, replied 13 minutes later, acknowledging Musk’s earlier praise for his work with SpaceX.

“Like me, you know that Butch and Suni are back with Crew-9, just like me, as planned since September last year.” He mentioned in another tweet about NASA’s plan to bring Willmore and Williams back to Earth alongside two current space station crews. “Even now, you haven’t sent a rescue ship to bring them back. They’ve returned to the Dragon Capsules they’ve been working on with the ISS since September last year.”

Mogensen was the commander of the Space Station from September 2023 to March 2024, continuing to be stationed at his recent orbital post.

Neither the White House nor NASA immediately responded to requests for comment.

Former Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, who led the space station in 2013, also reiterated his initial comment on X on February 14th.

“Suni and Butch have never been ‘stuck’ in space,” Hadfield stated. “They are well-prepared and dedicated to their missions, like all professional astronauts. Leading the Space Station Commander is Suni, and they are onboard spacecraft working diligently on behalf of NASA and all their partners. I commend their dedication.”

Spatt’s role as one of Trump’s top political advisers has raised new questions about his tendency to disseminate false and misleading information. Musk has also recently spread several misleading claims regarding fraud and spending within the US government.

Wilmore and Williams were launched on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft in June 2024 to the International Space Station, intending to spend about a week as part of their test flight.

However, the capsule encountered several issues and was forced to prolong its stay at the space station. Ultimately, NASA decided to return the Starliner to Earth in September.

Elon Musk in Washington on February 13th.
Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Under the Biden administration, NASA has requested SpaceX to bring Willmore and Williams back to Earth. Their return, initially set for this month, was postponed to late March. NASA cited the need to “finalize” the new SpaceX spacecraft that will transport four new crews to the space station.

This flight, called Crew-10, is scheduled to carry NASA astronauts Anne McClain and Nicole Ayers, Russian astronaut Kiril Peskov, and Japanese astronaut Onishi to the space station.

Upon their arrival, Wilmore and Williams will depart the station in another Dragon capsule, alongside NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian astronaut Alexander Golbunov.

Typically, incoming crews overlap with outgoing ones during handover periods, allowing astronauts to exchange information about ongoing experiments, maintenance tasks, and other protocols.

Musk also reiterated on Thursday. He suggested that the space station should be deorbited, proposing a timeline of two years instead of NASA’s plan to deorbit the facility by 2030.

“It has served its purpose. There are limited further utilities,” he stated. “Let’s aim for Mars.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com