As per a report from a prominent education and research charity, the UK could see up to three million low-skilled positions vanish by 2035 due to advances in automation and AI.

The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) identifies the most vulnerable occupations as trades, machine operations, and management roles.

Conversely, a growing demand for highly skilled workers is anticipated as improvements in AI and technology increase workloads “at least in the short to medium term”. Overall, the report forecasts that the UK economy will generate 2.3 million new jobs by 2035, though the distribution of these jobs will be uneven.

This finding contrasts with recent studies suggesting that AI’s impact will be more significant on high-skilled technical jobs like software engineering and management consulting, rather than on trades or manual labor.

Research from King’s College, published in October, indicated that “high-wage companies” experienced job losses of approximately 9.4% between 2021 and 2025, primarily following the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.

The British government identified management consultants, psychologists, and legal professionals as the professions “most vulnerable to AI”, while athletes, roofers, and bricklayers are least likely to be displaced.

Recently, law firm Clifford Chance announced it would be reducing its London-based business services workforce by 10% (around 50 positions), attributing the change to AI. Additionally, PwC’s leadership has publicly stepped back from plans to recruit 100,000 individuals between 2021 and 2026, stating that “the world has changed” due to advancements in artificial intelligence.

Jude Hilary, one of the authors of the report, stated that NFER’s research, grounded in long-term economic models of the UK labor market, suggests that the forecasts for job losses due to AI may be premature.

He indicated that the reduction of jobs linked to AI may be influenced by factors like a weakened UK economy, rising National Insurance contributions, and employer risk aversion.

“There’s a general sense of uncertainty regarding future developments and the timeline for recovery. Much discussion revolves around AI and automation, but lacks substance, which is a concern for many employers,” Hilary remarked.

“Currently, I think many employers are simply hesitant to act.”

Mr. Hilary predicted that the overall influence of AI on the UK workforce would be multifaceted. There will likely be a decline in demand for numerous entry-level roles, and many low-skill jobs may become obsolete. This raises significant concerns, as individuals losing low-skill positions in an evolving economy will struggle to reskill.

“New job opportunities in the labor market often lean towards professional or semi-professional roles. … The one to three million workers displaced highlighted in the report will encounter substantial hurdles when attempting to re-enter the workforce,” he added.