A new report predicts that power outages lasting more than eight hours will increase in the United States in the coming years due to climate change. Extreme weather events caused by climate change, such as cyclones, are making it challenging to cope with these outages. Severe weather events that occur simultaneously, like wildfires during heat waves, are already causing more prolonged power outages, according to a study published in the journal agreement.
From 2000 to 2023, 80% of power outages in the US were weather-related, and this number is expected to rise further due to the increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather events accelerated by climate change. These events not only come with economic costs but also health risks, disrupting essential services like heating, air conditioning, and medical equipment.
While it may not be possible to prevent weather events, researchers believe that tracking patterns can help in better preparing for power outages and distributing aid effectively. Understanding when and where power outages coincide with severe weather events can help mitigate their impact, particularly as aging power grids and climate change lead to more severe weather.
A study analyzed weather events from 2018 to 2020, finding that nearly 75% of US counties experienced significant power outages during dangerous weather events. The study also observed an increase in simultaneous power outages and wildfires along the West Coast from 2018 to 2020.
Researchers are now working on simulating different dangerous weather combinations in various regions to develop effective response plans across the country. Doctoral student and lead author of the study, Vivian Do, emphasized the importance of understanding these patterns to minimize the societal impact of power outages during severe weather events.
California wildfires spread rapidly on Tuesday as firefighters faced strong winds, dry conditions, and a heatwave that pushed temperatures into triple digits in the Los Angeles area. However, cooler temperatures are predicted, and the fires may soon be contained.
Firefighters were also contending with blazes in western Nevada, just south of Reno, in extremely windy conditions. The National Weather Service issued red flag warnings for most of Nevada and parts of Southern California. Vast tracts of land were at risk of ignition.
The fires have added pressure to what has already been a busy season for firefighters across the Western U.S., burning nearly 7 million acres, more than double last year’s total. Over 24,000 firefighters were mobilized as of Tuesday.
Rhine fire spreads in Southern California
The Line Fire, burning in the foothills of the San Bernardino National Forest, poses a threat to approximately 65,600 structures. The fire had expanded to 26,400 acres as of Tuesday morning and was only 5% contained, according to CalFire.
Firefighters clean up burned trees and branches as the Rhine Fire spreads in San Bernardino, California, on September 8. Qian Weizhong/VCG via Getty Images
The fire, which started on Thursday night in East Los Angeles, triggered evacuation orders across the area with 9,200 buildings, primarily homes, at risk, said Fire Information Officer Arnold Menjivar.
Menjivar expressed concern about the fire’s proximity to homes in Running Springs, the gateway to Big Bear Lake and Bear Mountain ski resorts.
“We’re very close,” Menjivar said, noting that firefighters were employing an aggressive response strategy but were wary of gusty winds in the canyon. “This is very challenging terrain.”
The Rhine fire led to the formation of its own weather system on Saturday, creating a fire cloud resembling a thunderstorm. Fire clouds emerge when a fire generates its weather pattern. The cloud produced around 280 lightning strikes, which hit the ground. According to the National Weather Service.
Pyrocumulus has also been observed at two other sizable fires in Southern California: the Airport Fire in Orange County and the Bridge Fire in Angeles National Forest.
A red flag warning surrounding the Rhine Fire area is set to expire at 8 pm on Tuesday night, and the arrival of cooler temperatures starting Wednesday “may lead to reduced fire activity and increased fuel moisture,” as per Cal Fire.
Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Saturday due to the Rhine Fire, with fire officials announcing on Monday that the California National Guard would deploy four Black Hawk helicopters, other aircraft, and 80 soldiers to support the Modular Aerial Firefighting System. Approximately 2,100 firefighters were battling the blaze.
Evacuation Order and fire alerts were issued for several towns in the foothills east of California Highlands, outside San Bernardino, and along the route to Big Bear Lake. The Bear Valley Unified and Redlands Unified school districts canceled classes on Monday and Tuesday due to the fires.
More fires rage in Southern California
Hot, dry weather has fueled additional fires in the Southern California hills, prompting further evacuations.
The Airport Fire erupted on Monday afternoon. A 7-acre forest fire broke out in Trabuco Canyon, Orange County, south of Los Angeles. Within hours, the fire had spread to an estimated 5,400 acres, as reported by the Orange County Fire Department. By Tuesday morning, the fire hadexpanded to 9,000 acres, stated the fire department.
Dangerous conditions in the Sierra Nevada foothills
Windy, dry conditions have put firefighters on high alert near Reno, Nevada. The Davis Fire has charred nearly 5,600 acres and is currently 0% contained. As stated in a status update on Tuesday.
The fire Davis Creek Regional Parkbroke out just south of Reno on Saturday, burning substantial timber and brush, causing damage to at least 14 structures, road closures, and evacuations for approximately 12,000 to 14,000 people.
The fire also resulted in power outages, leaving 17,000 customers without electricity on Saturday. About 3,000 customers in Washoe County, Nevada, were still without power as of Tuesday morning. Power outage.Us.
Over 400 personnel are actively combating the blaze. El Dorado County Fire Department video Footage shared on social media depicted intense flames engulfing the densely wooded mountains and thick smoke clouding the sky.
Actor Jeremy Renner is among the community members affected by the Davis fire, and on Sunday, he shared an Instagram Story showing a massive plume of smoke billowing from the mountain. People Magazine Reportedly, he posted additional photos on Tuesday showcasing firefighters in action and a plane releasing pink fire retardant.
Tuesday marks the final day of high temperatures for the most at-risk areas burning in Nevada and Southern California.
A cold front from the Pacific Ocean is expected to lower temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit in Southern California on Wednesday.
A cold front is also anticipated to move into the Reno area on Wednesday, which may not necessarily benefit the fires as it could bring stronger winds.
Damage from storms like Hurricane Harvey caused severe power outages to the Texas power grid.
Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images
Simulations suggest that storm sheltering just 1% of the power lines in a power grid can reduce the likelihood of a hurricane-induced power outage by a factor of five to one in 20. The demonstration, conducted on a mock version of the Texas power grid, could help improve the resiliency of power transmission systems around the world.
“The importance of different power lines to the overall system becomes clear only when studying the partial disruption of the power grid as the storm progresses,” he says. frank hellman at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
To identify the critical power lines most in need of protection, Hellman and his colleagues investigated how the power grid responds to widespread damage over time. They focused on the large-scale “failure cascade” that occurs after the initial storm damage. When power plants and transmission lines shut down to protect against further damage, secondary power outages can occur and increase the impact of a hurricane.
Researchers have determined that wind-related storm damage, such as damaged pylons and fallen tree limbs from gusts, and resulting damage to Texas during seven historic hurricanes between 2003 and 2020. simulated both a series of power outages that occurred on the power grid.
Rather than trying to predict individual power line failures, which can be caused by fallen trees or lightning strikes, researchers set each power line's probability of failure based on local wind speeds during each storm event. assigned. Their model maintains the same 20 critical transmission lines, where initial storm damage can cause a series of secondary line failures, even if they randomly vary the probability of failure for each line and rerun the simulation. Consistently identified electrical wires.
This experiment synthetic network model of the Texas Grid, which was previously developed by a team at Texas A&M University. It is not an exact replica of the actual physical grid, but represents the overall behavior of the grid. “None of the power lines in that grid are real power lines,” he says. adam burchfield at Texas A&M University. “Therefore, to see if these results hold true for the real Texas grid, we need to perform the study on at least a model of the real Texas grid.”
Power grid operators themselves can run this simulation with their own detailed power grid models, although independent researchers typically do not have access to such models for security reasons. Once you identify which specific lines are weak points, you can weatherize critical components of your grid.
Beyond Texas, such simulations can also model grids in other locations where similar storms have occurred. It says it “may provide an opportunity to validate the model and results.” Chuan Yi Ji from Georgia Tech in Atlanta was not involved in the study.
Hellman acknowledges that wind damage models have limitations. It does not take into account the possibility of further damage from flooding or how precautions grid operators can take to prevent power outages.
Still, Burchfield said the study's use of “different scenarios” to check the probability of outages in a realistic grid model further emphasized the study's main findings. “I think grid strengthening is a key element in making the grid more resilient,” he says. “And this paper shows that strategically choosing which transmission lines to strengthen is important to have the greatest impact on resiliency.”
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