Lamer noted that detailed analyses and FEMA’s approximate maps can often exaggerate flood risk, which tends to be what clients typically seek.

“I was asked, ‘Please prove we aren’t in the flood plain.’ We’re working 30 feet above the river,” Lamer shared regarding FEMA’s initial mapping. “That’s the flaw in these maps.”

It’s a nationwide practice to adjust FEMA maps both before and after they are officially confirmed.

Syracuse Professor Prall, who has researched flood policy, alongside academic Devin Lee, analyzed five years of data on modifying the FEMA map. They found over 20,000 buildings in 255 counties across the U.S. were remapped outside special flood hazard zones from 2013 to 2017 via various appeal processes. Despite this, more than 700,000 buildings remain within the special hazard flood areas in those counties.

According to Prall, the agency has approved the majority of map revisions, with Lamer, who has processed hundreds of applications, noting only one rejection. Thus, achieving a 92% success rate with the Camp Mystic exemption is actually standard.

“If it’s not likely to be approved, we won’t submit it,” Lamer remarked. There’s little financial motivation for clients to pursue the process further unless the data demonstrates reduced flood risks compared to FEMA’s findings.

FEMA’s high-risk flood zones often expand after agents finalize new maps; however, property owners and communities can subsequently mitigate those zones.

A study by Pralle and Lee in their work, Risks of Public Policy, Crisis, reveals that alterations to special flood hazard zones are increasingly frequent.

Their research indicates that the appeal system presents consistent incentives for decreasing federal flood map designations.

“FEMA lacks the resources to double-check everything,” Prall stated.

A FEMA spokesperson mentioned that the agency reviewed the Camp Mystic case and submitted elevation data following its protocol, asserting that the approval of the amendment “will not significantly alter the reality of flood risks and dangers.”

Storms like those that have impacted Camp Mystic are projected to occur more frequently in a warming world. To address existing knowledge gaps, independent organizations are creating data-driven tools for better predicting heightened heavy rain risks.

For instance, First Street utilizes a global climate model to anticipate extreme weather events and integrate this data into risk maps. The firm provides information and analysis notably to individuals, banks, investors, governments, and more.

The national analysis revealed that more than twice as many buildings fell within the 100-year flood plain when compared to FEMA’s mapping. Porter noted that this inconsistency stemmed from heavy precipitation risks that FEMA maps failed to capture.

The company’s 100 Years of Flood Zone mapping for Camp Mystic indicates that events like this will impact both old and new campsites. In certain locations, flood zones extend beyond both Hewitt and the FEMA’s unenforced 100-year flood plain, while in other spots, they are much narrower and closer to the engineering work of Hewitt.

Steubing from the flood plains association mentioned that indications suggest the July 4 flood was anticipated to be the first significant event in 800 years, but emphasized that more assessments are necessary, as some engineering firms continue to evaluate the flood’s extent. It’s still unclear how accurately the flooding corresponds to various risk maps.

While First Street’s mapping includes climate risks, it too has its limitations, lacking the detailed river analyses completed by Hewitt.

“I don’t have boots on the ground,” Porter remarked.

In an ideal scenario, flood mapping would merge comprehensive ground engineering, current rainfall and river flow data alongside forecasts of future climate risks. According to Steubing, flood plain managers need more adaptive tools to represent different flood scenarios accurately. These should differentiate between rapid surface run-offs and slow, sustained storms, ultimately leading to better risk assessment for individual communities.

Texas is working to address various historical data gaps to move toward this goal, Steubing explained.

However, many regions, including some near Camp Mystic, have never been thoroughly studied or mapped.

To fill these gaps, the state is funding a new FEMA program called Basic Level Engineering. This initiative aims to estimate basic flood levels in under-researched areas using high-resolution LIDAR data and contemporary modeling techniques. The new mapping is intended to complement existing FEMA maps rather than replace them, and the updated mapping is now accessible statewide, including regions near Camp Mystic, representing an advancement that will aid in mitigating future disasters.