Tag Archives: flood

Protecting Lives: How Subsidence in River Deltas Increases Flood Risk for Millions

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Chao Phraya River Delta

Thailand’s Chao Phraya River Delta: Rapidly Sinking

Channon Kanjanavasoonthara/Getty Images

The Chao Phraya River Delta, one of the most economically and environmentally vital deltas globally, is sinking at alarming rates, threatening millions with severe flooding. Recent satellite data analysis reveals that subsidence in river deltas is becoming a greater danger to local communities than rising sea levels.

Approximately 500 million people inhabit this delta, including some of the world’s most impoverished communities. This expansive lowland area houses 10 megacities, each boasting populations exceeding 10 million.

Manuchel Shirzai and his team at Virginia Tech researched subsidence rates in 40 global deltas, including the Mekong, Mississippi, Amazon, Zambezi, Yangtze, and Nile rivers.

Shirzaei noted, “As deltas sink, global sea levels are also rising by about 4 millimeters annually, creating a compounded risk of flooding.”

The research utilized data from 2014 to 2023 collected by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 1 satellite radar, which can detect changes in ground distance with precision up to 0.5 mm. Across the 40 studied deltas, over one-third showed signs of subsidence, with more than half of the area affected in 38 of these regions.

“In numerous cases, land subsidence contributes more to relative sea level rise than the ocean itself,” Shirzaei asserted. “In 18 out of 40 deltas, average subsidence rates surpass sea level rise, with the impacts being significantly pronounced in areas located less than 1 meter above sea level.”

The Chao Phraya Delta, where Bangkok is situated, ranks as the most affected among 40 nations concerning subsidence rates and impacted areas. Here, the average subsidence rate reaches 8 mm per year, which is double the global average for sea level rise, with 94% of the delta sinking at rates above 5 mm per year.

As a result of combined land subsidence and sea level rise, Bangkok and the Chao Phraya Delta confront a formidable projected sea level rise of 12.3 millimeters per year. Other cities like Alexandria in Egypt and Jakarta and Surabaya in Indonesia share similar predicaments of rapid land subsidence.

The researchers analyzed three major anthropogenic pressures: groundwater extraction, sediment alteration, and urban growth to assess their impacts on delta subsidence. Shirzaei explained that upstream dams, levees, and river engineering limit sediment input, which is crucial for delta maintenance, while urban development escalates pressure on delta surfaces and heightens water demand, furthering groundwater depletion.

Among these factors, groundwater extraction poses the most significant impact overall, although specific delta areas may be more influenced by sediment shifts and urbanization, the study found.

Shirzaei emphasized, “It would be misguided for policymakers to concentrate solely on sea level rise due to climate change and overlook local land subsidence. Unlike global sea level rise, human-driven land subsidence can often be tackled locally through groundwater regulation, managed aquifer recharge, and sediment management.”

He also pointed out that water-intensive facilities, such as data centers, may exacerbate this issue. “Our findings reveal that groundwater extraction is a major contributor to accelerated land subsidence in numerous delta regions, which can worsen when such facilities depend on local water sources,” he remarked.

In already vulnerable areas like the Mekong Delta, increasing water demand may hasten land subsidence, jeopardizing drainage, flood protection systems, and the durability of crucial infrastructure. “This doesn’t suggest data centers should be avoided altogether in the delta, but they must prioritize groundwater conservation, minimize overall water use, and take land subsidence into account,” said Shirzaei.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

This Year, We Found Ourselves Overwhelmed by a Flood of Clever Yet Meaningless AI Noise

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OpenAI founder Sam Altman is featured on Sora

Sora/Screenshot

There’s no doubt that 2025 will be remembered as the year of decline. “Slop,” a term for AI-generated content that is often off-base, bizarre, and visually unappealing, has infiltrated nearly every online platform. It is also starting to corrupt our hearts.

Sufficient slop has built up over recent years that scientists can now assess its long-term effects on people. Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered that individuals using large-scale language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT exhibit significantly less brain activity compared to those who do not. This could adversely affect mental health as reports suggest that specific chatbots may encourage unhealthy beliefs and worsen certain mental health issues.

Furthermore, deepfakes have become ubiquitous, complicating the verification of truth online. A Microsoft study indicates that humans can distinguish between real and AI-generated videos only 62% of the time.

OpenAI’s latest application serves as a video sharing platform that is primarily AI-generated, except for one aspect: the app scans your likeness and integrates you and real individuals into the fictional scenes it creates. OpenAI’s founder Sam Altman has downplayed its significance by allowing users to create videos featuring him stealing GPU and performing skibbiddy toilet-style antics.

Yet, what about AI’s supposedly transformative effects on workplace efficiency? One study reveals that the introduction of AI has resulted in a decline in productivity, with 95% of organizations implementing AI reporting a lack of tangible returns on investment.

Slop devastates lives and careers. It is also eroding our historical narrative. As I work on a book about archaeology, I worry that future historians will look back upon the media from this period and criticize the layers of manipulative and false content. One key reason for recording our experiences, whether through writing or video, is to maintain a historical record of our activities. When I write, I aim to create a legacy that allows those living 5,000 years from now to understand who we were amidst the chaos.

AI chatbots recycle meaningless language. They produce content but not genuine memories. Historically, this may be more harmful than propaganda, which is typically crafted by people with clear intentions, reflecting societal issues and politics. Slop risks erasing our presence from our historical records, making it challenging to discern the intent behind it.

Perhaps the sole way to counteract our current cultural sloppiness is by coining words devoid of meaning. This might explain the emergence of the Gen Z “6-7” phenomenon in the mainstream. This term was designated, albeit nonverbally, as “Word of the Year” by dictionary.com. You can always default to saying 6-7 when lacking a specific response or for no reason at all. What will the future bring? 6-7. What impact will AI slop have on art? 6-7. How do we navigate a reality where jobs are scarce, violence escalates, and climate science is persistently disregarded? 6-7.

I would be intrigued to see AI companies attempt to create content around 6-7. Because humans remain one step ahead of the slop, inventing new forms of nonsense and ambiguity that can only be truly understood by another human.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Months After the Deadly Texas Flood, Congressman Continues Quest for Answers

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Nearly two months following the devastating July 4 flood in Texas, which claimed over 130 lives, D-Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett continues to seek clarity on fundamental issues related to the federal response.

What emergency personnel were deployed by the National Weather Service on the night of the flood? How effectively did the agency prepare for the storm? And how did vacancies in critical local National Weather Service positions, like warning adjustment meteorologists, impact the situation?

In four letters sent to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, along with a fifth from the Commerce Department, Rep. Doggett requested records that could shed light on the events of July 4th.

“I have yet to receive any written response,” Doggett expressed, accusing the agency of evasion.

This push for transparency highlights the lack of public accountability regarding that day’s events. Shortly after the flood, an internal meteorologist indicated that the National Weather Service provided a timely warning, citing the constraints of their forecasting technology during flash flooding.

However, it remains unclear how effectively the agency communicated with emergency managers and other ground stakeholders when risks became evident. A former NWS meteorologist commented on the difficulties faced when their forecasts are compromised by staff shortages or overwhelming workloads.

Lloyd Doggett at the U.S. Capitol in 2024.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images File

“If there’s nothing to conceal, and if Trump’s budget cuts haven’t impacted weather services, then they need to create logs,” Doggett remarked regarding the records he seeks. “Drawing public attention to this issue may be the only way to prompt a response from the administration.”

Neither NOAA nor the Commerce Department has responded to requests for comment.

Doggett wrote his initial letter to NOAA on May 20, prior to the flood, raising concerns about staffing levels in the Austin/San Antonio weather office. This office is responsible for forecasts and communications in areas that faced significant impacts from the July storm.

“The 22% vacancy rate in the local NWS jeopardizes the timeliness of forecasts and alerts that communities depend on,” Doggett stated, inquiring about how the agency would address staff shortages and fulfill their operational roles.

Following the flood disaster, Doggett subsequently contacted NOAA on July 8 with 15 more questions about their responses. He reported having a video conference with agency director Ken Graham on July 11.

In a letter sent after their July 11 meeting and a follow-up on July 24, Doggett requested call logs, chat logs, radar archives, and shift logs from the agency.

“He mentioned that providing these was straightforward,” Doggett noted, recalling Graham’s remarks during the Zoom call. “I’ve been following up since then, but there’s been no satisfactory explanation.”

The agency is permitted to respond at its discretion to queries from Congress members overseeing it. Interpretation of the Department of Justice Law. Nonetheless, agencies often voluntarily address congressional inquiries.

Doggett has persistently contacted NOAA via phone and text, and in a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Luttonick on August 27, he accused the Secretary of suppressing responses that he believes NOAA was ready to provide.

“I recommend that responses to my inquiries be prepared, but these have been withheld by your office,” Doggett wrote. “There’s no documentation demonstrating NWS’s preparation, communication, or response—perhaps indicating that some aspects of this tragedy are being concealed.”

Doggett mentioned that four children from Austin lost their lives in the floods and has called for an investigation similar to those conducted by the National Transportation Safety Board after significant disasters.

“If 27 children perish in a plane crash, the NTSB conducts a thorough investigation of all involved parties at state, federal, and local levels,” Doggett remarked.

NBC News has submitted multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to NOAA seeking records from NWS. Some of these requests might yield records that address Doggett’s inquiries, but thus far, there has been no response.

According to the Commerce Department’s Public Records website, one of the requested chat logs and communications between forecasters is currently “assigned for processing.” The agency indicated that information regarding staff cuts and recruitment will be managed in batches alongside other similar requests related to the Texas flood.

“We aim to provide a provisional release by early September, with additional releases occurring periodically through the end of the year,” wrote Julia Swanson, FOIA Coordinator, in an August 18 status update. “To effectively allocate limited staff resources, all other FOIA requests are temporarily set aside to prioritize addressing flood-related inquiries in Texas.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

How FEMA’s Outdated Flood Maps Foster Risk-Negotiable Systems

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Lamer noted that detailed analyses and FEMA’s approximate maps can often exaggerate flood risk, which tends to be what clients typically seek.

“I was asked, ‘Please prove we aren’t in the flood plain.’ We’re working 30 feet above the river,” Lamer shared regarding FEMA’s initial mapping. “That’s the flaw in these maps.”

It’s a nationwide practice to adjust FEMA maps both before and after they are officially confirmed.

Syracuse Professor Prall, who has researched flood policy, alongside academic Devin Lee, analyzed five years of data on modifying the FEMA map. They found over 20,000 buildings in 255 counties across the U.S. were remapped outside special flood hazard zones from 2013 to 2017 via various appeal processes. Despite this, more than 700,000 buildings remain within the special hazard flood areas in those counties.

According to Prall, the agency has approved the majority of map revisions, with Lamer, who has processed hundreds of applications, noting only one rejection. Thus, achieving a 92% success rate with the Camp Mystic exemption is actually standard.

“If it’s not likely to be approved, we won’t submit it,” Lamer remarked. There’s little financial motivation for clients to pursue the process further unless the data demonstrates reduced flood risks compared to FEMA’s findings.

FEMA’s high-risk flood zones often expand after agents finalize new maps; however, property owners and communities can subsequently mitigate those zones.

A study by Pralle and Lee in their work, Risks of Public Policy, Crisis, reveals that alterations to special flood hazard zones are increasingly frequent.

Their research indicates that the appeal system presents consistent incentives for decreasing federal flood map designations.

“FEMA lacks the resources to double-check everything,” Prall stated.

A FEMA spokesperson mentioned that the agency reviewed the Camp Mystic case and submitted elevation data following its protocol, asserting that the approval of the amendment “will not significantly alter the reality of flood risks and dangers.”

Storms like those that have impacted Camp Mystic are projected to occur more frequently in a warming world. To address existing knowledge gaps, independent organizations are creating data-driven tools for better predicting heightened heavy rain risks.

For instance, First Street utilizes a global climate model to anticipate extreme weather events and integrate this data into risk maps. The firm provides information and analysis notably to individuals, banks, investors, governments, and more.

The national analysis revealed that more than twice as many buildings fell within the 100-year flood plain when compared to FEMA’s mapping. Porter noted that this inconsistency stemmed from heavy precipitation risks that FEMA maps failed to capture.

The company’s 100 Years of Flood Zone mapping for Camp Mystic indicates that events like this will impact both old and new campsites. In certain locations, flood zones extend beyond both Hewitt and the FEMA’s unenforced 100-year flood plain, while in other spots, they are much narrower and closer to the engineering work of Hewitt.

Steubing from the flood plains association mentioned that indications suggest the July 4 flood was anticipated to be the first significant event in 800 years, but emphasized that more assessments are necessary, as some engineering firms continue to evaluate the flood’s extent. It’s still unclear how accurately the flooding corresponds to various risk maps.

While First Street’s mapping includes climate risks, it too has its limitations, lacking the detailed river analyses completed by Hewitt.

“I don’t have boots on the ground,” Porter remarked.

In an ideal scenario, flood mapping would merge comprehensive ground engineering, current rainfall and river flow data alongside forecasts of future climate risks. According to Steubing, flood plain managers need more adaptive tools to represent different flood scenarios accurately. These should differentiate between rapid surface run-offs and slow, sustained storms, ultimately leading to better risk assessment for individual communities.

Texas is working to address various historical data gaps to move toward this goal, Steubing explained.

However, many regions, including some near Camp Mystic, have never been thoroughly studied or mapped.

To fill these gaps, the state is funding a new FEMA program called Basic Level Engineering. This initiative aims to estimate basic flood levels in under-researched areas using high-resolution LIDAR data and contemporary modeling techniques. The new mapping is intended to complement existing FEMA maps rather than replace them, and the updated mapping is now accessible statewide, including regions near Camp Mystic, representing an advancement that will aid in mitigating future disasters.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Hurricane Risks in Florida Are Growing: Challenges in Securing Flood Insurance

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The threat of hurricanes in Florida is increasing, driven by anthropogenic climate change that warms our atmosphere and elevates sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Warmer conditions retain moisture, enhance hurricane intensity, and create more powerful storms, making Florida more susceptible to storm-related damage. During Hurricane Helen, extreme rainfall surged by 10%, with some regions in Florida receiving up to 26.95 inches of rainfall.

Jeremy Porter, a climate risk expert at the First Street Foundation, points out that soaring insurance costs reflect the significant effects of climate change in West Florida, where areas like Fort Myers Beach are grappling with recurring losses and expensive recovery efforts.

“In recent decades, we’ve been catching up with the reality of climate risks that weren’t adequately reflected in risk modeling. Now, as we reassess, premium costs are rising rapidly, impacting people’s household budgets,” Porter noted.

Due to a scarcity of home insurance options, residents are increasingly opting for coverage through Citizens Insurance Property Corp., a state-supported non-profit insurer in Florida.

Porter anticipates that by 2055, home insurance premiums in the Tampa Metro region could soar by 213% because of hurricane risks. Climate-related threats are similarly disrupting insurance markets in other states; for instance, Sacramento, California, may see a 137% rise due to heightened wildfire risks.

Porter also mentioned that declining home prices in Florida could influence insurance costs and accessibility. If property values fall below a certain threshold, insurers exposed to hurricane risks may view this as a warning sign, leading to increased scrutiny and potential hikes in premiums during the underwriting process.

Zillow data indicates that the value of homes in Fort Myers Beach has decreased by approximately $200,000 from pre-pandemic levels, with around 86% of last year’s sales reflecting this price drop.

Before Hurricane Ian, the average home value on Sanibel Island, a favored destination in Lee County, stood at nearly $1.3 million. Today, it has plummeted to $868,000, with 93% of homes having sold at reduced prices.

Joan Krempner, a part-time resident of Fort Myers Beach since 2016, stated that selling her home is not financially feasible after substantial rebuilding costs following Hurricane Ian. With few alternatives but to remain in Fort Myers Beach, Krempner expresses concern about the long-term implications of climate change on the community’s future.

“We must face that this is a long-term issue. The critical question is whether people want to keep investing in Fort Myers Beach,” Krempner remarked. “If there hasn’t been a hurricane in 30 years, the risk seems worthwhile for living in paradise. But if three major hurricanes strike within 18 months, doubt creeps in.”

Jacki Liszak, president and CEO of the Fort Myers Beach Chamber of Commerce, asserts that Fort Myers Beach remains an attractive place to live and visit, highlighting community efforts toward resilient architecture and the construction of homes above flood levels.

“Homes must be built strong and elevated,” Liszak emphasized. “This is beneficial. People are already here, and they’ll continue to come. They cherish this lifestyle—it’s truly a beautiful part of the world.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Record Highs in Flash Flood Warnings Issued

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This summer has been notably impacted by intense rainfall and flooding. States including Texas, New Mexico, North Carolina, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey have faced significant flood events recently. Earlier this month, the nation experienced at least four rainfall events classified as 1,000-year storms within a single week.

In June, flash floods claimed at least nine lives in West Virginia after 2.5 to 4 inches of rain fell in parts of Ohio County in just half an hour.

In early July, over 120 people lost their lives in Central Texas’s Hill Country when heavy rains caused the Guadalupe River to surge near Carville in just 90 minutes.

A few days later, a devastating flash flood in a remote village in Ruidoso, New Mexico, resulted in at least three fatalities.

Earlier this week, Central Park in New York City recorded more than two inches of rain within an hour, marking the second-highest hourly rainfall in the city’s history, according to New York City’s emergency management.

Las Schumacher, the director of Colorado State University and the Colorado Climate Center for State Climate Scientist, noted that the recent flash floods can partly be attributed to the summer months being the peak time for storms.

“From June to October, we often see significant rainfall in various parts of the country,” he mentioned, highlighting that the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

However, studies indicate that climate change is likely to exacerbate storm frequency and severity, increasing the chances of heavy rains and flooding.

“A warmer atmosphere holds a greater amount of water vapor, which contributes to rainfall,” Schumacher explained. “The evidence supporting this is very compelling.”

Despite this, the surge in warnings today compared to the past can be attributed to advancements in the ability to detect and track weather systems.

Over the past four decades, radar technology and meteorological models have seen substantial improvements, leading to an increase in the number of warnings issued during extreme weather situations.

“The systems we had in the ’80s are not comparable to those we use today,” he remarked. “With enhanced radar and a broad array of data sources, it’s expected that we’ll see more warnings simply because our technology is evolving.”

These warnings are vital not only for saving lives but also for safeguarding infrastructure like susceptible dams, levees, and drainage systems during flood events, Aghakouchak stated.

“It serves as a reminder that such events can lead to catastrophe,” he said. “The floods in Texas were a significant disaster, and we must always be prepared.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

National Weather Service Issues Flood Warnings Amid Renewed Criticism of Trump’s Staff Cuts

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The deadly floods in Texas have ignited fresh concerns regarding cuts made to the National Weather Service by the Trump administration, which has resulted in fewer warnings and left countless individuals scrambling for safety.

By Sunday evening, at least 79 fatalities had been reported, with many more unaccounted for after a sudden rise in the Texas Hill Country, a region infamously dubbed “Flash Flood Alley.”

Hours following the early morning floods on Friday, some Texas officials voiced their discontent with the NWS, claiming the rainfall predictions were understated. Councillor Jack Kimble, D-Calif., shared on X Saturday his critical remarks, which were in response to a post by Vice President JD Vance. On Sunday, President Donald Trump dismissed the notion of investigating whether NWS cuts contributed to the disaster, while the White House emphasized that he “hates” the idea that the cuts are linked to this tragedy.

Independent meteorologists and former NWS officials have stated that the warnings issued in anticipation of the floods were as timely and accurate as possible given the available real-time weather data. They noted that predicting extreme rainfall and flash floods in short timeframes is inherently challenging, making it difficult to ensure emergency warnings reach those most in danger.

“The forecasts were accurate. The warnings were worthy,” remarked Wisconsin meteorologist Chris Vaguski. “The challenge always lies in ensuring the message reaches the people.”

Despite concerns over leadership shortages in the NWS due to increased staffing gaps, meteorologists do not believe that an understaffed office was a significant factor in the tragic outcomes.

Tom Fahy, Legislative Director of the National Weather Service Employee Union, indicated that the San Antonio Weather Office lacked two vital permanent positions: science officers (responsible for training and implementing new technologies) and warning coordination meteorologists (who coordinate with media and serve as the office’s spokesperson). However, they have staff positioned in leadership roles. Overall, Fahy reported that there were sufficient meteorologists on hand to manage the incident.

“WFO” [weather forecasting offices], Fahy noted on Saturday, expressed concern regarding the absence of unfilled senior positions and effective leadership.

In a statement, the National Weather Service expressed its “grief over the tragic loss of life in Kerr County.” Although the agency did not address staffing issues, it provided a comprehensive timeline of alerts that were issued.

Some officials in Texas have suggested that the forecasts from the National Weather Center did not adequately convey the storm’s threat, while others acknowledged the agency’s timely alerts.

“The initial forecast received from the National Weather Service on Wednesday anticipated 4-8 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 3-6 inches in the Hill Country,” stated W. Nim Kid, chief of Texas emergency management, during a press conference on Friday. “The actual rainfall in these specific areas exceeded our predictions.”

According to a timeline from the National Water Center, Kerrville, Texas, and surrounding areas were at risk of flash flooding on Thursday, July 3. The NWS Austin/San Antonio issued flood monitoring alerts at 1:18 PM on Thursday, which continued through Friday morning. An emergency flash flood warning was released at 1:14 AM in Kerr County.

Travis County Judge Andy Brown commended the National Weather Service for its warnings, while Eric Carter, the county’s emergency management coordinator, described the service’s efforts as “exceptionally proactive.”

The agency highlighted that it issued flash flood warnings at 1:14 AM on Friday, categorizing the threat as “substantial” or “catastrophic,” and activated wireless emergency alerts on mobile devices.

“The flash flood warning was issued on the evening of July 3 and early morning of July 4, providing over three hours of preliminary lead time,” the statement read.

Concerns regarding staffing and performance arose following the Trump administration’s dismissal of National Weather Service employees this spring, who were offered early retirement and buyouts. By early June, the NWS had lost around 600 personnel, resulting in many seasoned employees exiting and leaving newer or less experienced staff members.

Some NWS offices have seen staffing reductions exceeding 40%, with agents pressed to take on crucial roles in forecasting operations. Consequently, at least eight offices ceased 24-hour operations this spring, with some unable to issue weather warnings.

In May, over 40% of the nation’s weather forecast offices reported staffing rates exceeding 20%. These cuts prompted all living former NWS supervisors to express their distress over staffing levels and ongoing budget reductions through letters.

“Our greatest fear is that insufficient staffing in weather offices could lead to unnecessary fatalities. This concern resonates deeply with those on the frontlines of forecasting, as well as with individuals relying on their expertise,” they articulated.

Compared to many forecast offices nationwide, Texas offices are relatively well-staffed.

Fahy mentioned that the San Antonio/Austin weather office operates with 11 meteorologists, which is down six from the usual full staff of 26. Warnings issued in central Texas indicate that four positions remain vacant at the standard staff level of 23. The office has been without a weather officer for an extended period and lacks senior hydrologists as well.

“In San Angelo, we have no hydrologists, which poses a significant issue,” Fahy explained, noting that hydrologists are essential for analyzing stream flow and managing flood responses.

Mayor Dalton Rice of Kerrville stated that the city will investigate whether emergency notifications are adequate to alert residents effectively.

“We recognize that questions are being raised regarding emergency notifications, but it’s premature to speculate. Our local partners are dedicated to thoroughly reviewing the events and systems involved,” Rice stated at a press conference on Sunday. “In due time, we will take decisive measures to bolster our preparedness moving forward, ensuring the safety of all community members.”

An independent meteorologist, who has criticized NWS staffing and budget cuts previously, stated that federal meteorologists on-site provided timely warnings.

Alan Gerald, former director of analysis at NOAA’s National Intense Storm Institute, noted in a blog post that the Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office effectively communicated risks swiftly, despite experiencing leadership shortages.

“While it is less than ideal to have these positions vacant for extended periods, it can negatively affect operations on some level,” Gerald wrote. “However, based on the actual warning services provided by the NWS during the incident, they performed admirably, delivering the expected levels of warnings and alerts for events of this nature.”

Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza indicated there was no evidence suggesting that staffing issues or budget cuts contributed to the tragedy.  

Wisconsin meteorologist Vaguski noted the inherent difficulties in predicting flash floods and extreme rainfall.

“Quantitative precipitation forecasting, or QPF, is among the most challenging tasks for a meteorologist. It’s crucial to determine the right location, the right volume, and the right timing,” Vaguski elaborated. “They were issuing alerts because they understood the significance of the event.”

Vaguski explained that remnants of the tropical storm transferred to Texas brought tropical moisture that fueled severe thunderstorms, resulting in extreme rainfall across central Texas.

He also added that the predictors indicated increased concerns aligned with findings from weather models.

Texas Hill Country is often labeled “Flash Flood Alley” due to its terrain, which exacerbates river swelling rapidly. Understanding precise rainfall locations is key to predicting flood impacts.

“Forecasts for this week predicted 4-7 and even 5-9 inches of rain, with some models suggesting even higher amounts. Unfortunately, science has yet to evolve to the point where we can accurately predict rainfall to a precise latitude and longitude,” he added.

Predicting when the heaviest rainfall will occur and when flooding starts is particularly challenging for forecasters, Vaguski noted.

“Receiving severe weather alerts in the middle of the night presents significant challenges. Historically, most tornado and flood fatalities occur during this period when people are asleep. It’s difficult to detect tornadoes and rising water,” Vaguski expressed. “Did people activate emergency alerts on their devices?”

Addressing the reduction and cutbacks at the National Weather Service, Vaguski asserted that he doesn’t believe better staffing would have notably hindered the tragedy.

“These are crucial positions that need filling,” he remarked, adding, “but they likely did not significantly contribute to the incident.”

Vaguski indicated that substantial improvement is needed in quantitative precipitation forecasting to help forecasters identify threats earlier. However, such advancements are threatened by potential NOAA funding cuts, he cautioned.

“The major concern is if the latest budget proposal is approved by Congress as the administration wishes, it will shut down all NOAA research labs vital for enhancing predictions.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Study suggests that a massive flood reclaimed the Mediterranean Sea 5.3 million years ago

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A massive flood called the Zanclean Flood ended the Messinian salinity crisis that lasted from 5.97 million to 5.33 million years ago, according to a new study led by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI).

One of the scenarios being discussed for ending the Messinian Salinity Crisis 5.33 million years ago is the catastrophic backfilling of the Mediterranean Sea by the Zanclean Flood. Micallef others. They present clear onshore and offshore evidence that this deluge spilled over a shallow marine corridor in southeastern Sicily into the nearby underwater Noto Gorge. This aerial photo shows a ridge eroded by a major flood, located northeast of Masseria del Volpe, in southeastern Sicily. Image credit: Kevin Sciberras and Neil Petroni.

“The Zanclean Flood is an awe-inspiring natural phenomenon, with flows and velocities that seem dwarfed by any other known flood in Earth’s history,” said the study’s lead author, C.A. said Dr. Aaron Micallef, a research scientist at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute.

“Our study provides the most convincing evidence yet of this unusual event.”

During the Messinian salinity crisis, the Mediterranean Sea was isolated from the Atlantic Ocean and evaporated, creating vast salt deposits that transformed the region’s landscape.

Scientists have long believed that this dry period would gradually end and that the Mediterranean Sea would be reclaimed over 10,000 years.

However, the discovery in 2009 of an eroded channel stretching from the Gulf of Cadiz to the Alboran Sea called this idea into question.

The discovery points to a single major flooding event lasting between two and 16 years, which became known as the Zanclean Flood.

Estimates indicate that the outflow of this megaflood was between 68 and 100 Sverdraps (Sv), where 1 sievert is equivalent to 1 million cubic meters per second.

In their research, Dr. Micallef and his colleagues combined newly discovered geological features with geophysical data and numerical modeling to provide the most comprehensive picture of the megaflood to date. did.

The researchers investigated more than 300 asymmetric streamlined ridges in the corridor across the Sicilian Sil, a submerged land bridge that once separated the western and eastern Mediterranean basins.

“The morphology of these ridges corresponds to erosion by large-scale turbulence, mainly in a north-easterly direction,” said Professor Paul Carling from the University of Southampton.

“They reveal the immense power of the Zanclean Flood and how it changed the landscape and left a lasting mark on the geological record.”

Scientists sampled the ridge and found that it was overlain by a layer of rock debris containing material eroded from the sides of the ridge and surrounding areas. This indicates that it was deposited there rapidly and with great force.

This layer lies right on the boundary between the Messinian and Zanclean periods, where the Great Flood is thought to have occurred.

Using seismic reflection data, a type of geological ultrasound that allows scientists to see layers of rock and sediment beneath the Earth’s surface, the authors found a “W-shaped” shape on the continental shelf east of Sicily’s Sill. discovered a waterway.

This channel, dug into the ocean floor, connects the ridge to the Noto Gorge, a deep underwater canyon located in the eastern Mediterranean.

The shape and location of the channel suggest that it functioned like a giant funnel.

When the mega-flood flowed into Sicily’s Sill, this channel is thought to have carried the water towards the Noto Valley and into the eastern Mediterranean.

The research team developed a computer model of the flood to simulate how the water behaved.

The model shows that floodwaters change direction and increase their strength over time, reaching speeds of up to 32 meters per second (72 miles per hour), carving deeper channels, eroding more material, and increasing their length. This suggests that they may have been transported over long distances.

“These discoveries not only reveal a critical moment in Earth’s geological history, but also prove that landforms persist for five million years,” Dr. Micallef said.

“This opens the door to further research on the Mediterranean coast.”

of study Published in a magazine Communication Earth and Environment.

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A. Micallef others. 2024. Land-to-sea indicators of the Zanclean Flood. common global environment 5,794;doi: 10.1038/s43247-024-01972-w

Source: www.sci.news

The Hills of Sicily were Submerged 40 Meters Below Water During the Great Flood.

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A ridge in southeastern Sicily eroded by the Great Flood

Kevin Sciberras and Neil Petroni

The jumbled deposits of rocks found on a hilltop in southeastern Sicily are left behind by the Great Flood, the largest known flood in Earth's history, which refilled the Mediterranean Sea five million years ago.

Rock deposits and eroded hills in this part of the Italian island of Sicily are the first evidence found on land of a mega-flood, scientists say. pole curling at the University of Southampton, UK. “You can actually walk around and look at it,” Carling said.

About 6 million years ago, during the so-called Messinian salinity crisis, the Mediterranean Sea separated from the Atlantic Ocean and began to dry up. Vast salt deposits were formed during this period, and sea levels may have fallen by more than a kilometer.

About 5.3 million years ago, water once again began to flow through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea. Researchers initially thought the giant waterfall near Gibraltar had been reclaimed over tens of thousands of years.

But in 2009, a massively eroded channel was discovered at the bottom of the strait, suggesting more sudden deluges could occur. Since then, this evidence has continued to grow.

Carling said the flood first filled the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea. The eroded topography of the ocean floor suggests that it then spilled into the eastern basin over an underwater ridge known as the Sicilian Sill.

team members Giovanni Barreca The professor at the University of Catania in Italy, who grew up in southeastern Sicily, suspected that the land there was also formed by the Great Flood. So he and his fellow researchers took a closer look at the rock samples and analyzed them.

Sure enough, we found that the intricate deposits near the tops of some hills contained rocks that had been eroded from deeper layers and somehow transported to the top of the hills. “You can tell by their nature that they come from a lower level,” Carling says. “And they were carried over this hill.”

Many of the hills themselves have a streamlined shape, resembling the hills of Montana carved out by the great floods caused by the bursting of ice dams at the end of the last ice age. “They're very distinctive,” Carling says. “And only a very large, massive flood could streamline a feature of this magnitude.”

Detail of a Sicilian ridge formed by a huge flood

Daniel Garcia Castellanos

The researchers estimated that at the peak of the flood, water was flowing at about 115 kilometers per hour, covering the top of the hill, which is about 100 meters above modern sea level, with about 40 meters of water.

Researchers also investigated the ocean floor around Sicily and found further evidence of the deluge, including eroded ridges and channels. Their modeling suggested that the entire Mediterranean Sea was backfilled between two and 16 years, but the main flooding event in Sicily probably lasted only a few days, Carling said.

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Source: www.newscientist.com