According to the Met Office, the UK must swiftly adapt to summer temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F). This warning from the nation’s National Weather Service highlights the alarming rate of rising summer temperatures due to climate change.

In July 2022, Lincolnshire, eastern England, recorded an unprecedented temperature of 40.3°C (104.5°F), the highest for that month. Experts state that climate change has amplified the likelihood of such heatwaves by at least tenfold.

Furthermore, researchers caution that these extremes are part of a worrying trend. Under the guidance of Jillian Kay, the Met Office has utilized climate models to simulate over 2,500 UK summers to evaluate the potential for extreme heat under current climatic conditions.

The findings reveal a 50% chance of surpassing 40°C within the next 12 years, particularly affecting the southern and eastern regions of England, which are at higher risk for intense heat. The frequency of such extreme temperatures has surged dramatically in recent decades, increasing six times since the 1980s and nearly tripling since 2000.

Additionally, there is a 1% chance of temperatures breaching 42°C (107.6°F) annually, with the highest projected temperature for the UK under present conditions reaching 46.6°C (115.9°F), though such an extreme is described as “very rare,” according to Kay.

The simulations also provide meteorologists insights into the atmospheric conditions conducive to extreme heat in the UK. A primary scenario involves a persistent heatwave affecting Europe, with hot air moving across the southern and eastern coasts of England. Recently, the Met Office issued a warning of another heatwave forecasted for the UK due to the intense warmth persisting across the continent.

As temperatures rise, these heatwaves are becoming increasingly enduring. In the scorching summer of 1976, daytime temperatures surpassed 28°C (82.4°F) for two consecutive weeks. Today, under current climate conditions, similar temperatures can persist for over a month. Simulations indicate that exceeding 40°C could be feasible for 3-4 days even under existing conditions.

“We could experience temperatures a few degrees higher than the 40°C seen in July 2022, and we must be ready,” Kay emphasizes. The UK faced considerable challenges managing brief instances of heat above 40°C during that heatwave. More than 1,200 additional deaths were reported, rail travel was disrupted, schools closed, and wildfires raged throughout the country.

Kay urged public authorities, especially public health leaders, to “stress-test” systems to effectively handle such extreme temperatures. “The Met Office and similar entities have long predicted that climate change would lead to more intense and frequent heatwaves,” she states. “Our research confirms exactly that.”

Prolonged heatwaves pose significant risks. They not only strain the ecosystem but also dry out soil, wilt plants, and threaten animal life, while putting immense stress on human health, particularly when daytime and nighttime temperatures remain elevated for long durations. Extended heatwaves increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes. This risk is particularly acute in regions less accustomed to sustained heat, like the UK, where air conditioning is uncommon.