Tag Archives: WorstCase

Europe Could Experience Record Temperatures of 40°C in a Worst-Case Scenario

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Volunteers engage in efforts to combat wildfires near Stamata, Greece in 2024

Nick Paleologos/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In light of current climate trends, Europe may grapple with summer heatwaves and severe droughts that could leave large parts of the continent enduring weeks of extreme temperatures, water shortages, and soaring energy costs.

Recent research aims to delineate the “worst-case scenario” regarding heat and drought potential during summer months in Central and Western Europe.

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez from Switzerland’s ETH Zurich and her team initiated their research with seven simulations based on climate models representing heatwaves. They systematically introduced minor variations to the initial atmospheric conditions of the models and assessed different potential outcomes, utilizing a method called ensemble boosting, resulting in more severe heat waves in each simulation.

“Each iteration generates numerous events with slight adjustments in the initial model state,” noted Vicki Thompson from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, which did not participate in the research. “The most severe scenarios they present suggest that such outcomes could occur right now.”

While many simulations failed to produce heatwaves, some resulted in significantly harsher heatwaves and droughts compared to historical records.

In the most extreme scenario, temperatures may soar to 45°C (113°F) for over a month in certain regions, accompanied by severe droughts. Events of this nature far exceed the heat and drought phenomena experienced in 2003 or 2018.

Additionally alarming is that this modeling implies that the most intense heat waves tend to follow each other closely, potentially leaving Europe in a cycle of extreme summers that heavily burden both humans and ecosystems. This increases the likelihood of wildfires, drought, energy and food shortages, and ecosystem collapse, experts warn.

“Our findings illuminate the potential effects of unprecedented combinations of heat, fire weather, and soil drought,” the researchers remarked.

This cycle of persistent heat waves and prolonged drought may be partly attributed to soil drying out due to extreme heat, explains Pascal Iu from the Institute for Climate and Environmental Sciences in France. One heatwave can deplete soil moisture and exacerbate extreme heat, stating, “Drier soil conditions can foster atmospheric systems that persist for extended periods.”

While Yiou collaborated with Suarez-Gutierrez, he was not part of the study. He emphasized that these worst-case scenarios are feasible outcomes given current climatic conditions. “They are not suggesting these events will definitely occur, rather they are indicating that such scenarios are possible,” he mentions. He drew a parallel with the 2021 heatwave in western North America, which shattered temperature records and became the deadliest weather event in Canadian history, made possible by very atypical atmospheric conditions that caused extraordinary heat levels.

“The goal is to establish optimal conditions for extreme events,” said Jana Sillmann at the International Climate Research Centre in Norway. This aids decision-makers in refining their emergency response plans, preparing for potential occurrences of record-breaking heatwaves in a single summer.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

The Los Angeles Fires: A Foreseen and Feared Worst-Case Scenario

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overview

  • The Los Angeles-area fires are a worst-case scenario, caused by high winds after months of no rain.
  • Fire experts, past reports, and risk assessments all predicted wildfire catastrophe to some degree.
  • The geography and weather of the affected areas, combined with climate change and suburban sprawl in fire-prone areas, created a vulnerable situation.

For the Los Angeles area, the recent series of wildfires represents the worst-case scenario. After months of no significant rain, unusually strong and prolonged Santa Ana winds hit. But the severe effects of the fires are surprising, according to an NBC News review of past fire post-mortem reports, wildfire risk maps, wildfire risk public meetings, and interviews with fire experts. It is said that it is not.

“It’s completely foreseeable,” said Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis and history at Pomona College.

The fire forced the evacuation of about 180,000 people, knocked out power to about 500,000 customers, and destroyed thousands of homes.

“We’ve been building homes deep in fire zones. We know it’s a fire zone, we know it’s dangerous, and yet city halls and county governments are increasingly We continue to green light development in high-risk locations,” Miller said. “It’s a combination of all the undesirable factors.”

Wildfire risk for homes in Los Angeles County Higher than 99% of U.S. countiesaccording to a federal government analysis. The Pacific Palisades, Hollywood Hills and Altadena are the three areas where the fires are occurring, and are at “very high fire risk.” According to a map from the Los Angeles Fire Department and state.

“It’s not a matter of if, but when,” said Joe Scott, chief fire scientist at wildfire risk consultancy Pyrologics, which worked on the federal analysis. “But this is the high end of what could happen.”

After the Woolsey Fire in November 2018, Review after action We discussed problems similar to those faced by firefighters today.

The flames shot across the Santa Monica Mountains toward homes on the Malibu coast, spreading flames up to a mile from the front line and forcing the evacuation of 250,000 people. More than 1,000 homes were destroyed in Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

The report described it as a “perfect storm”.

The report said the speed and intensity of the fire “overwhelmed resources on the scene” and noted that the dead-end canyon road made access for evacuation and firefighting efforts difficult. The review said that given the weather and fire department limitations, initial responses in Malibu and along the Pacific Coast Highway should have focused on protecting lives and providing safety, rather than protecting property. But the public and policymakers did not fully understand that reality, the report said.

“The public has a sense that public institutions will always protect them. As the scale of the Woolsey Fire shows, this is not always possible,” the report said, putting the death toll at 3. He praised the first responders who kept the situation under control.

It concluded that adding more fire engines and taking steps to better prepare homes for potential fires may not be enough to protect new developments in fire-prone areas.

“Even if the current fire weather cycle were to stop, it would occur again,” the report said.

This week, that prediction came true. Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Malone said Wednesday there simply aren’t enough firefighters. Deal with the situation considering the weather conditions.

Firefighters are battling the Palisades fire Tuesday.Ethan Swope/Associated Press

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Source: www.nbcnews.com