Tag Archives: temperatures

Transforming Home Construction: Essential Strategies to Maintain Temperatures Below 2°C

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Sawa residential building in Rotterdam

Sawa Housing: Sustainable Wood Construction in Rotterdam

Image Credit: Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock

To combat global warming and maintain temperatures below 2°C, cities must drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from construction and infrastructure by over 90% within the next 20 to 40 years. This necessitates significant shifts in building design, material choices, or both.

“Canada aims to triple its housing construction rates amidst widespread housing shortages in the U.S., Australia, and many other countries,” explains Shoshanna Saxe from the University of Toronto. “How can we simultaneously meet these housing demands while significantly curbing pollution?”

Despite challenges, Saxe is optimistic. “We are already constructing buildings that meet sustainability goals; we just need to scale up our efforts,” she asserts. “Our expertise and knowledge are long-established; we need to utilize them effectively.”

Globally, the construction sector generates 10-20% of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from cement production. Thus, understanding current construction emissions is crucial for countries and cities to plan reductions aligned with international climate objectives.

However, Saxe’s research team discovered a surprising lack of studies estimating construction emissions at the city level in Toronto.

“We developed a method to estimate city-level construction emissions and forecast future emissions to adhere to climate limits,” says team member Keegan Rankin, also from the University of Toronto.

Rankin’s analysis covered 1,033 cities, integrating existing models used for assessing the environmental impact of construction. He utilized data on city population, construction investment, and employment from sources like ExioBase. “These datasets were readily available, but combining them innovatively was unprecedented,” Saxe notes.

The team concluded the rate at which each city must reduce construction emissions to meet global carbon budget limits for a 2°C increase. “Understanding these budgets is essential for effective planning,” says Saxe.

The findings indicated that focusing solely on single-family homes to address housing needs would exhaust these budgets; cities should prioritize developing more efficient apartment buildings.

Employing alternative materials like wood and recycled concrete can help lower emissions, but good design remains paramount, adds Saxe.

“It’s a common misconception that merely building with wood resolves emission issues,” she clarifies. “Wood also emits greenhouse gases, and overly optimistic assumptions about forests may only lead to minimal emissions reductions.”

“Thoughtful building design is vital to minimize wasted space and materials,” Saxe emphasizes.

Rankin asserts that cities are uniquely positioned to implement change. “Cities are actively pursuing climate action and hold significant sway over construction practices,” he remarks. “As we identified in Toronto, many cities lack the resources to make informed budgeting choices.”

“Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals hinges on addressing construction sector emissions, irrespective of reductions in other emissions,” says Prajar Pradhan from the University of Groningen. “Viewing emissions from a city budget perspective is also pivotal.”

It’s crucial to design buildings for low emissions not only during construction but throughout their lifespan, states Susan Roaf from Heriot-Watt University in the UK. “We cannot populate our growing cities with inefficient, pollution-heavy ‘zombie buildings,'” she cautions. Natural ventilation solutions can be a key factor in sustainability.

To reduce construction emissions effectively, prioritization of projects is essential. Saxe points out, “Canada continues to invest heavily in oil and gas infrastructure. We could accommodate housing for 10 million people without increasing emissions simply by reallocating those resources.”

Topics:

  • Climate Change/
  • Sustainability

Source: www.newscientist.com

Why Are Climate Change Actions Stalled Despite Rising Global Temperatures?

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Climate change activists march on the sidelines of the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil

Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images

A decade following the Paris Agreement, there should be a significant leap in climate initiatives. Yet, in the past four years, there has been scant advancement, highlighted by the latest COP summit, which did not make substantial progress in phasing out fossil fuels or curbing deforestation. What went wrong?

I cannot provide a clear answer. However, as the planet continues to warm and the consequences become increasingly dire, I fear our responses are leaning toward irrationality instead of rationality. If true, the resulting climate impacts may be far worse, and the decline of our global civilization could become a more plausible scenario than previously imagined.

Let’s revisit the 2015 Paris Agreement. The concept of an international climate accord, wherein each nation would establish its own greenhouse gas emission targets, seemed to me incredibly naive. The ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius target was a stark shift from prior plans. Advocates claimed progress would be made incrementally through a “ratchet mechanism,” allowing nations to enhance their commitments over time.

I remained skeptical. I left Paris believing this was largely a façade for environmentalism. My expectation was minimal immediate influence but increased action as the consequences of warming became undeniable. In essence, reason would eventuate.

Yet, the opposite has occurred. Based on current policies, the Climate Action Tracker estimated back in 2015 that the world was on course for approximately 3.6°C of warming by 2100. By 2021, that figure was revised to around 2.6°C—a significant improvement, suggesting Paris was making strides.

However, the most recent Climate Action Tracker report prior to the COP30 summit presents grim findings. For four consecutive years, there has been “little or no measurable progress.” The report states, “Global progress remains stagnant.” Although a handful of countries are genuinely advancing, others are stalling or reversing their climate efforts.

Notably, 95% of nations failed to meet this year’s deadline to update targets under the ratchet mechanism.

While the increase in renewable energy generation is surpassing expectations, it’s counterbalanced by substantial funds still being allocated to fossil fuels. Simply harnessing cheap solar energy won’t suffice. The proliferation of solar installations can lead to diminishing returns on profits. Moreover, although producing green electricity is manageable, progress in more challenging sectors like agriculture, aviation, and steel manufacturing remains inadequate.

In addition, the issue is not solely the failure to reduce emissions; we are also ill-equipped to handle what’s coming. We continue constructing cities on sinking land adjacent to rising seas. As noted in an April report, “Adaptation progress is either too slow, stagnant, or misdirected,” a sentiment echoed by the UK’s Climate Change Committee.

The pressing question is why climate action has plateaued without intensification. In some regions, this is strikingly due to political leaders who either disregard climate change as a priority or blatantly deny it, such as seen with the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

Even those governments that vocalize climate change as a priority are taking minimal action, often citing more immediate concerns like the cost of living crisis. However, this crisis is intertwined with climate issues, as escalated severe weather patterns fuel rising food prices. As the climate continues to warm, the repercussions on food production and the broader economy will likely intensify.

Will we reach a moment where governments find themselves paralyzed on climate action due to the costs associated with combating rising sea levels inundating metropolises? Will citizens persist in supporting climate change deniers out of fear regarding global conditions, regardless of public opinion? Most individuals worldwide support increased climate action.

The notion that mounting evidence will lead leaders to rectify their course appears ever more naive. We navigate an unusual reality, reminiscent of the CDC’s handling of misinformation, such as the baseless anti-vaccination movements undermining public health even amid measles outbreaks, alongside some politicians suggesting that hurricanes stem from climate manipulation.

As we continue to break temperature records annually, the reality of climate change has never been clearer. But perhaps that’s part of the issue. Philosopher Martha Nussbaum posited that fear can drive detrimental behavior, prompting people to discard rational thought for fleeting pleasure over long-term benefits. Research indicates that environmental stress may lead individuals to act irrationally.

People often leap from perceiving difficulties to declaring imminent doom. No, we are not condemned. However, the longer rational thought is sidelined, the graver the consequences will become. Perhaps what we’re witnessing is merely a transient response linked to the pandemic’s aftermath and the Ukraine war. Alternatively, something more troubling might be unfolding.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Europe Could Experience Record Temperatures of 40°C in a Worst-Case Scenario

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Volunteers engage in efforts to combat wildfires near Stamata, Greece in 2024

Nick Paleologos/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In light of current climate trends, Europe may grapple with summer heatwaves and severe droughts that could leave large parts of the continent enduring weeks of extreme temperatures, water shortages, and soaring energy costs.

Recent research aims to delineate the “worst-case scenario” regarding heat and drought potential during summer months in Central and Western Europe.

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez from Switzerland’s ETH Zurich and her team initiated their research with seven simulations based on climate models representing heatwaves. They systematically introduced minor variations to the initial atmospheric conditions of the models and assessed different potential outcomes, utilizing a method called ensemble boosting, resulting in more severe heat waves in each simulation.

“Each iteration generates numerous events with slight adjustments in the initial model state,” noted Vicki Thompson from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, which did not participate in the research. “The most severe scenarios they present suggest that such outcomes could occur right now.”

While many simulations failed to produce heatwaves, some resulted in significantly harsher heatwaves and droughts compared to historical records.

In the most extreme scenario, temperatures may soar to 45°C (113°F) for over a month in certain regions, accompanied by severe droughts. Events of this nature far exceed the heat and drought phenomena experienced in 2003 or 2018.

Additionally alarming is that this modeling implies that the most intense heat waves tend to follow each other closely, potentially leaving Europe in a cycle of extreme summers that heavily burden both humans and ecosystems. This increases the likelihood of wildfires, drought, energy and food shortages, and ecosystem collapse, experts warn.

“Our findings illuminate the potential effects of unprecedented combinations of heat, fire weather, and soil drought,” the researchers remarked.

This cycle of persistent heat waves and prolonged drought may be partly attributed to soil drying out due to extreme heat, explains Pascal Iu from the Institute for Climate and Environmental Sciences in France. One heatwave can deplete soil moisture and exacerbate extreme heat, stating, “Drier soil conditions can foster atmospheric systems that persist for extended periods.”

While Yiou collaborated with Suarez-Gutierrez, he was not part of the study. He emphasized that these worst-case scenarios are feasible outcomes given current climatic conditions. “They are not suggesting these events will definitely occur, rather they are indicating that such scenarios are possible,” he mentions. He drew a parallel with the 2021 heatwave in western North America, which shattered temperature records and became the deadliest weather event in Canadian history, made possible by very atypical atmospheric conditions that caused extraordinary heat levels.

“The goal is to establish optimal conditions for extreme events,” said Jana Sillmann at the International Climate Research Centre in Norway. This aids decision-makers in refining their emergency response plans, preparing for potential occurrences of record-breaking heatwaves in a single summer.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

High Temperatures Above 90 Degrees Reported Northeast of New England

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LAS VEGAS – The severe heatwave plaguing the Southwest is anticipated to move eastward in the coming days, with temperatures surpassing 90 degrees Fahrenheit expected in the northeast, particularly in parts of New England later this week.

Around 15 million individuals are currently facing extreme heat advisories in eastern California, Nevada, Arizona, and western Texas. Triple-digit temperatures are projected to become widespread throughout the area by Wednesday.

In southern Nevada, temperatures this week may rise up to 12°F above the seasonal average, as reported by the National Weather Service. Nearby Arizona is predicted to see highs reaching 115°F across its southern and central regions.

As the week progresses, this heat will extend into the Midwest and Great Lakes, leading to the region’s first significant heat wave this weekend.

The Weather Service has indicated that record high temperatures are possible from Northern and Eastern Colorado to Nebraska and South Dakota on Thursday, affecting parts of the Great Basin and western South Dakota.

Research indicates that climate change may contribute to more frequent, intense, and prolonged heat waves.

Warm temperatures combined with high humidity will affect the East Coast this weekend and into next week. In major cities like New York City, Boston, and Washington, DC, the thermal index (the combined effect of temperature and humidity on how hot it feels) is expected to reach the mid-90s or higher.

“Starting early next week, we will see a stretch of prolonged hot and humid weather beginning Sunday and lasting through at least mid-week,” according to the New York branch of the Weather Bureau, as noted in a post on X.

Meanwhile, extreme heat is forecasted to persist across southwestern desert regions, including Death Valley, for the remainder of the week, as per the weather services.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Global Temperatures Could Be Rising Beyond Our Expectations

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Global warming is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires

Noah Burger/Associated Press/Alamy

Recent data indicates that global temperatures are 6% higher than earlier estimates, meaning our planet is experiencing more warming than previously thought.

This trend puts us at risk of surpassing the Paris Agreement’s temperature threshold of keeping global warming below 1.5°C by as early as 2028, rather than the anticipated timeframe of 2030-2035. This is a frequent topic among scientists.

2024 marked the first calendar year where global average temperatures exceeded 1.5°C, following unprecedented warmth that caught climate experts off guard. Although this alone does not breach the Paris Agreement target, it raises concerns over a sustained temperature rise occurring faster than anticipated.

To assess our progress, Gottfried Kirchengast and Moritz Pichler from the University of Graz in Austria utilized the global temperature dataset to revise estimates of global average surface temperature (GMST) from 1850 to 2024. GMST is crucial in measuring global warming, as per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The duo also devised a new method for converting GMST, which combines sea surface temperatures and air temperatures, into a single surface air temperature (GSAT).

“Our benchmark records maximize traditional temperature datasets and yield this new enhancement,” Kirchengast notes. This refines the range of uncertainty and demonstrates that global warming is slightly accelerating compared to prior methods, indicating an approach toward the critical 1.5°C mark.

Kirchengast emphasizes that this refined GSAT record is vital for evaluating global efforts toward the Paris Agreement’s objectives. The goal was to establish “a unified reference dataset for global warming in relation to pre-industrial levels,” he elaborates.

Under the Paris Agreement of 2015, nations collectively pledged to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to restrict the temperature increase to 1.5°C.

These objectives are typically assessed against 20-year average temperatures, yet researchers disagree on the optimal calculations. Rather than relying solely on historical observations, we recommend using rolling averages derived from a mix of observational data and forecasts due to the increased number of scientists valuing a 10-year delay in evaluating non-compliance with any given target.

Kirchengast and Pichler propose employing novel benchmark GSAT records along with predictive climate models to provide real-time global warming metrics in relation to progress toward Paris targets. Their findings indicate that current warming levels have surpassed 1.39°C compared to pre-industrial benchmarks.

However, Duochan from the University of Southampton in the UK argues that GSAT records are not the best metric for determining the rate of global warming. “The GSAT is not the primary metric utilized in IPCC discussions or most climate target evaluations,” he remarks.

On the other hand, GMST continues to correlate with various changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise and alterations in precipitation, he notes. “For rigorous accountability, GMST remains a highly effective metric,” he argues.

Andrew Jarvis from Lancaster University in the UK emphasizes the urgent need for the scientific community to reach a consensus on a standardized method for measuring progress toward Paris objectives. “The diverse range of estimates is actually complicating policy assessments,” he contends.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Clownfish Will Endure and Adapt to Rising Ocean Temperatures

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To endure Rising ocean temperatures, clownfish adapt by decreasing their size.

Research has shown that various orange-striped fish shrink during heat waves off the coast of Papua New Guinea. These smaller fish are more likely to survive.

Climate change is causing heat waves to become more frequent and severe underwater. Elevated water temperatures can lead to the bleaching of the sea anemones that clownfish rely on, prompting them to adapt in order to survive.

During the severe heat wave of 2023, scientists tracked 134 colorful clownfish in Kimbe Bay, discovering that 101 of them exhibited significant reductions in length due to heat stress.

“We were genuinely surprised at first when we observed them shrinking completely,” remarked Morgan Bennett Smith, a research author at Boston University. The findings were published on Wednesday in the Journal of Science Advances.

Two clowns next to an anemone in Kimbe Bay off the coast of Papua New Guinea.
Morgan Bennett Smith / AP

Researchers are still unsure about how clownfish shrink, but one theory suggests they may be reabsorbing their own bone material. Smaller fish need less food, allowing Kakulfish to conserve energy during stressful conditions by becoming smaller.

Certain clownfish breeding pairs also exhibited synchronized contractions that improved their survival. The females maintained the social hierarchy and adjusted their size to remain larger than their partners, according to the researchers.

Additionally, other species are also shrinking in response to heat. For instance, marine iguanas reduce in size during El Niño events, which warm waters in the Galapagos. However, this coping mechanism has not been reported in reef fish until now.

“This is an additional strategy that fish employ to adapt to a changing environment,” said Simon Thorold, a marine ecologist at the Woods Hole Marine Facility who was not part of the research.

A kakuru fish next to anemone in Kimbe Bay off the coast of Papua New Guinea.
Morgan Bennett Smith / AP

This strategy may help fish withstand heat waves in the short term, but it remains uncertain how they will cope if such conditions persist over the coming years, Thorold noted.

The researchers found that these reductions in size were temporary. Clownfish were able to “catch up” and grow again once the environment became less stressful.

“These natural systems are severely stressed, but they exhibit remarkable resilience,” Versteeg states.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Early Season Heat Waves Record High Temperatures in the Southwest and Texas

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This week, the country is bracing for early seasonal heat waves, with record or near-record high temperatures anticipated across the Northern and Southern Plains, Southwest, and vast regions of central and southern Texas.

On Monday, temperatures climbed into the 90s in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with some areas likely reaching triple-digit highs.

Beginning Tuesday, Texas will experience its hottest conditions, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit becoming commonplace throughout the state, according to the agency.

“We are expecting record-breaking heat by mid-week across much of central and southern Texas,” the Weather Service noted. I mentioned this in a short-distance forecast on Monday.

In a series of posts on X, the San Antonio Weather Service office cautioned that many people may struggle to adapt to such extreme temperatures, heightening the risk of heat-related illnesses and fatalities.

“Temperatures are slated to soar above 100 on Tuesday, with some locations potentially hitting 110 mid-week. Ensure you have access to cooling and ample hydration before the heat arrives,” the office advised. I shared this on X.

As the week continues, the heat will intensify in the central and southern plains, eventually spreading to the southeastern U.S. and Florida.

Cities likely to set new daily temperature records this week include Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston in Texas, as well as Oklahoma City; Shreveport, Louisiana; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tallahassee, Jacksonville, and Orlando in Florida.

The unseasonably high temperatures are attributed to strong high-pressure ridges situated over much of the country, particularly in Texas. These “thermal domes” effectively trap heat in the region, leading to elevated temperatures for several days.

Southern California recorded historic highs over the weekend, peaking at 103 in downtown Los Angeles, surpassing the previous record of 99 set in 1988. According to reports, this significant increase has raised concerns.

During the Los Angeles heat wave, individuals took a moment to hydrate on Sunday.
Carlin Steele/Los Angeles Times Getty Images

Research indicates that climate change is intensifying the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves globally. Scientists predict yet another hot summer following two consecutive years of record-breaking global temperatures (2023 and 2024).

These ongoing record temperatures are part of alarming warming trends long anticipated by climate change models. The hottest years on record since 1850 have all occurred within the last decade. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Millions of Deaths in European Cities Linked to Extreme Temperatures

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Tourists are trying to cool down in Rome, which is expected to increase significantly by heat stroke by 2099

Massimo Valickia/Nurphoto (via Getty Image)

Researchers predict that if there are no further measures to restrict global warming and adapt to global warming, 2.3 million people will die in major European cities by 2099. I am. However, in cold northern northern countries, such as the United Kingdom, the number of deaths associated with the temperature of the cold will decrease due to the increase in the number of deaths due to the cold.

“It's presumed that there are some pure reductions, but it's very small compared to the significant increase in the Mediterranean region,” says. Pierre Maslot At London Hygiene Tropical Medicine School.

Masero's team first investigated epidemiological research on how the number of deaths increased during the intense heat or extreme cold period. Next, his team uses these statistical links to estimate how excessive deaths change in the next century in a variety of global warming scenarios.

The study is for 850 cities where 40 % of European population lives, but not in rural areas. This is because if many people live in a narrow area and are exposed to almost the same conditions, the statistical connection will be stronger.

If the city does not adapt, the ultimate impact of climate change will increase in exponential functions as global warming progresses. In the same scenario as the current scenario, the temperature -related number of excess deaths will increase by 50 % to 136 per year by 2099 by 2099 by 2099.

According to Masero, this figure will decrease if we take measures such as spreading air conditioners and planting trees in the city center, but to significantly reduce the vulnerabilities of the people in the heat. It is necessary. “This is far beyond what we have already observed in many countries around the world.”

The estimated value of the research team is based on the daily average temperature in the global warming scenario, and there is no possibility that extreme heat waves may be generated. “I know that this is usually enough to be able to associate death and temperature,” Maserotto says.

He says this is the most comprehensive study of this kind of study so far. It contains more countries, and for the first time, it was suggested that the number of deaths related to temperature increased as the continent warmed in France and Germany.

He says that rising temperature will have a wide range of effects from people's health to productivity. “The destiny to die is only part of the story.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.9-3.7°C by the year 2100

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Coal power plants contribute to global warming

Walaiporn Sangkeaw

Current policies of governments around the world are likely to result in global warming of between 1.9 and 3.7°C by 2100, with potentially more to come in the 22nd century.

“Each year, 2,100 people continue to emit more CO2 as global temperatures rise,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Stripe, a California-based software company that invests in carbon removal technologies. states.

His conclusions are based on a review of more than a dozen studies published over the past five years, looking at the implications of current policies over the past five years. According to these studies, the world is most likely to warm between 2.3 and 3°C by 2100.

However, these numbers do not fully take into account the uncertainties about future emissions of greenhouse gases as a result of human actions and how the climate system will respond to those emissions. Including these uncertainties gives a wider range of 1.9–3.7 °C.

These numbers reflect the most likely range of scenarios from the 5th to 95th percentile. This means that even with current policies, there is a small chance of a maximum warming of 4.4°C this century.

The good news is that all recent studies agree that very high emissions scenarios are currently unlikely. For these, warming of 4°C or more before 2100 is the most likely outcome.

That's because the worst-case scenarios considered by climate scientists were never all that plausible to begin with, Hausfather says, but it also reflects real progress in limiting emissions growth. and coal is currently expensive.

If climate policies strengthen and technological advances continue to exceed expectations, future emissions could be even lower than assumed in these studies, but this is not guaranteed and The rise of energy-hungry technologies like intelligence could do the opposite.

“It's definitely possible to imagine a world where AI accelerates rapidly and near-term emissions increase beyond what we think will happen today,” Hausfather says.

But he doesn’t think AI-related emissions will make much of a difference in the long term. “It’s certainly not in line with rapid emissions reductions, but it’s hard to see that in itself putting us on track for a significantly different end-of-the-century outcome,” Hausfather says. .

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Temperatures Expected to Decrease to Below 1.5°C by 2025 According to Global Forecasts

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Severe storms caused by La Niña in Queensland, Australia

Genevieve Vallee/Alamy Stock Photo

The UK's national weather and climate agency, the Met Office, predicts that the Earth's average surface temperature in 2025 will be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, and possibly 1.41°C. This is slightly lower than 2024, when temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C for the first time in the calendar year.

“A year ago, our 2024 forecasts highlighted for the first time the potential for temperatures to exceed 1.5C,” the Met Office's Nick Dunstone said in a statement. “While this appears to have happened, it is important to realize that temporarily exceeding 1.5°C does not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement. However, the first year above 1.5°C It is certainly a solemn milestone in climate history.”

The Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial standards. Most climate scientists currently define pre-industrial temperature as the Earth's average surface temperature between 1850 and 1900. This is because this is the earliest period for which reliable direct measurements were obtained. However, some studies suggest that by that time, the world had already warmed significantly as a result of human activity.

Next year will be among the top three warmest years on record, according to 2025 projections

Japan Meteorological Agency

The expected drop in surface temperatures in 2025 is the result of heat transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans due to La Niña, and does not mean that global warming has stopped. The overall heat content of the oceans and atmosphere continues to rise as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are rising due to increased carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.

During a La Niña event, cold water rises in the Pacific Ocean and spreads across the Earth's surface, resulting in a net heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. When an El Niño event occurs, the opposite happens. The 2023 El Niño helped break records for surface temperatures that year, which will be surpassed in 2024. But El Niño alone cannot fully explain the record temperatures.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Arctic Faces High Temperatures, Melting Ice, and Fires in 2024 According to NOAA Report

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overview

  • This year was the second hottest year on record in the Arctic, according to a new report from NOAA.
  • The authors said the tundra has become a carbon source rather than a carbon sink.
  • The North Pole is heating much faster than lower altitude locations because melting ice reflects less radiation back into space.

The Arctic just experienced its second warmest year on record. And worryingly, the region's tundra is transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon emitter as permafrost thaws and methane is released.

This would only increase the amount of heat-trapping gas entering the atmosphere, paving the way for further global warming.

The findings, shared Tuesday in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Arctic Report Card, show how climate change is disrupting ecosystems and altering the landscape in regions where global warming is most intense.

The Arctic, considered a leading region for the effects of climate change, is heating much faster than lower-altitude locations, depending on the baseline scientists use for comparisons and which geographies they include in their assessments. But that speed is 2-4 times faster. Each of the last nine years in the Arctic has been the hottest on record since 1900.

This dynamic is the result of a phenomenon called arctic amplification. As snow cover and sea ice are lost in the Arctic, more dark-colored water and rocks are revealed. Their dark surfaces reflect less radiation back into space, instead absorbing heat. In addition, ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns increasingly transport heat toward the Earth's poles.

Taken together, that means the Arctic is a fundamentally different place than it was just a decade ago. Twila Moon said.

“The Arctic is in a kind of new regime, not a new normal, of course, but it's definitely different than it was just a few decades ago,” she says.

Overall, the Arctic is becoming a greener landscape with more extreme precipitation, less snow and ice, the report said. As fires in the Arctic send smoke into populated areas, ice melts and sea levels rise, the effects of those changes are becoming increasingly apparent closer to American homes, scientists said.

“These problems aren't just limited to the Arctic; they affect all of us,” says Brendan Rogers, an associate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. .

This year's report includes a detailed explanation of how the carbon cycle in the Arctic is changing. Scientists have been closely watching what happens when permafrost thaws, releasing powerful greenhouse gases as it thaws and decomposes.

“Permafrost regions contain about twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere, and about three times as much carbon as is contained in the above-ground biomass of forests around the world. There's a lot of carbon out there,” Rogers said.

He added that permafrost areas “have been carbon sinks for thousands of years on average, primarily due to low temperatures and frozen soil.” Carbon sinks, by definition, absorb and capture more carbon dioxide than they emit. But now such areas are instead sources of greenhouse gas emissions, as they dissolve carbon and methane and release it into the atmosphere, Rogers said.

Wildfires also contribute to Arctic emissions. Last year's wildfires burned more than twice as much area in the region as the year before, and produced more emissions than Canada's economic activity.

Rogers said Canada's total wildfire emissions are “roughly three times the emissions from all other sectors in Canada.” “This is more than the annual emissions of any other country except China, the United States, India and Russia.”

Last year's wildfires forced the evacuation of Yellowknife, the capital of Canada's Northwest Territories. About 19,000 people had to evacuate the cityin Areas with discontinuous permafrost.

Temperature records are organized by Arctic water year, so the most recent records are from October 2023 to September 2024. Every September, scientists measure the extent of Arctic sea ice at its seasonal minimum.

This year's sea ice was the sixth lowest in the 45 years since satellite measurements began. Sea ice extent has decreased by about 50% since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the Arctic tundra is the second greenest since records began in 2000, indicating more shrubs have taken root and spread into new terrain.

Measurements of Arctic permafrost taken from boreholes drilled beneath the earth's surface show that average temperatures were warmer than in all but one year.

“There are many indicators that consistently show extreme or near-extreme conditions,” Moon said.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Explanation found for the record-high temperatures of 2023

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By 2023, the number of low-altitude clouds will have decreased dramatically.

Busa Photo/Getty Images

Changes in cloud cover may be the reason global temperatures have exceeded climate model predictions over the past two years.

Temperature records were broken repeatedly in 2023 and 2024, with average temperatures in both years about 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate change and El Niño weather patterns are partly to blame, but neither factor can completely explain the unusually warm weather.

Researchers now think the answer lies in a sharp decline in low-lying cloud cover in 2023. This change reduced Earth’s albedo, the planet’s ability to reflect solar radiation back into space, causing temperatures to rise.

Earth’s albedo has been decreasing since the 1970s. This is mainly due to the melting of polar ice sheets, which help reflect sunlight back into space. However, when analyzing satellite data, helge gosling and his colleagues at Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute have revealed that the planet’s albedo in 2023 hit an all-time low.

Goessling and his colleagues then used a combination of weather observations and modeling to understand the cause of this decline, and found that the number of low-lying clouds decreased sharply in 2023. This change was particularly noticeable in the Atlantic Ocean. 2023 saw the most unusual temperature extremes.

“We were able to show where the clouds were actually changing and at what altitude in the atmosphere,” Gosling said. “It’s really surprising that this reduction in cloud cover is occurring primarily in the lower levels.”

The findings could explain an additional 0.2°C of heat loss that scientists have struggled to account for, once background climate change and the effects of El Niño in 2023 are added up. “This is another piece of the puzzle, but I think it’s a very important piece,” Goessling said. Although the study only evaluated data from 2023, the findings could also explain why global temperatures will remain extremely high through 2024, despite El Niño weakening earlier this year. be.

paulo ceppi Researchers at Imperial College London say the study is timely as climate scientists are keen to understand the causes of recent record warmth. “I think they make a pretty convincing case that changes in albedo, especially in low-level clouds, contribute significantly to changes in the radiation budget and, therefore, in temperature,” he says.

The next question is why low-altitude clouds disappear. There are three main explanations. This may be due to a global decrease in aerosol pollution, which promotes cloud formation and persistence. Alternatively, it could be the result of changes in cloud behavior due to global warming. Or it could just be natural fluctuations in climate.

Understanding which of these three factors is dominant is critical because it influences how sensitive Earth’s climate is to greenhouse gas pollution. If the lack of clouds is due to a climate change feedback, its effects will accelerate in the coming years, causing global temperatures to rise more than expected. “The answer has pretty deep implications for what we expect about future climate change,” Seppi says.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Study finds that decreased cloud cover may lead to heatwaves and high temperatures

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overview

  • Global temperatures over the past two years have been even warmer than climate scientists expected.
  • A new study offers a possible reason: reduced cloud cover.
  • The study suggests that this decline may be a result of global warming, which could mean the Earth is heating up even faster than scientists thought.

Over the past two years, temperatures around the world have risen far more than scientists expected. This trend is creating the mystery of whether there are hidden climate change dynamics behind the sudden change.

Last year was the hottest summer on record, 2024 was likely to be even hotter.. Even after accounting for the expected effects of greenhouse gas pollution and El Niño (a natural pattern that generally increases temperatures), the researchers found that the roughly 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) of warmer temperatures observed in 2023 I couldn’t explain the change.

A new study offers a possible explanation. Cloud cover has decreased over the past two years, meaning more light is now reaching and heating the Earth’s surface, rather than being reflected back into space.

In the research, Published in Science on Thursdaysuggesting that this dynamic, called an overall decrease in the planet’s albedo, is likely the cause of the observed temperature anomaly in 2023.

“This is broadly consistent with the observed recent further increase in solar radiation,” said study author Helge Goessling, a climate physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany.

The expected cloud behavior in a warmer world is one of the most difficult aspects of the climate system to study and model. Answering questions about it will help scientists more accurately determine how sensitive the Earth is to greenhouse gas emissions.

If the decrease in low-level cloud cover is not a coincidence, it likely means the Earth is warming even faster than scientists thought.

“It’s not really clear yet how likely it is that some of this variation is variability that disappears again,” Gosling said. “This increases the likelihood of greater-than-expected warming.”

The new study is based on analysis of climate models and NASA satellite data on Earth’s reflectivity. It outlines three possible reasons for the decline in developing low clouds, but provides no conclusions about how much each factor contributes.

One option is that natural processes temporarily deviate from normal, causing a decrease in cloud cover. For example, natural fluctuations may be causing sea surface temperatures to rise more than expected, thereby changing the physics of how clouds form.

The second possibility is a change in maritime transport regulations. In 2020, the International Maritime Organization imposed limits on the sulfur content allowed in marine fuels. Some scientists believe that reducing the number of sulfur particles polluting the atmosphere may have the unintended effect of suppressing ocean cloud formation.

“They act as condensation nuclei for clouds, so they can make clouds brighter and last longer,” Goessling said of the sulfur particles.

A third option is that unidentified feedback loops within the climate system are causing clouds to decrease due to global warming.

If the latter two possibilities turn out to be the main culprits, it would mean that the climate is more sensitive to anthropogenic pollution than many scientists thought, and that humanity is therefore more likely than world leaders to It means we are closer to exceeding the targets set for emissions limits than previously realized. (The term “climate sensitivity” refers to how warm the Earth is. If the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere doubled.. )

Still, many questions remain, said Zeke Hausfather, director of climate research at financial firm Stripe and a researcher at Berkeley Earth.

“It remains to be seen whether these changes in cloud behavior are due to short-term fluctuations and will return to more normal conditions over time, or whether they represent new and ongoing changes to the climate system. No,” he said. Email.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average surface temperature of land and ocean in 2023 was about 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.

Efforts by world leaders to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain insufficient. Global temperatures are on track to rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) on average, far exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) goal set by the Paris Agreement.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Phoenix Endures Triple-Digit Temperatures for 100 Consecutive Days

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When Cam Ferguson arrived at a spot near Chase Field, the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks in downtown Phoenix, he prepared his usual supplies of cold water, sports drinks, peanuts, and candy about four hours before the first pitch.

The temperatures in downtown Phoenix were expected to reach around 103 degrees Fahrenheit (39.4 degrees Celsius) on a Labor Day afternoon, promising brisk business for vendors like Ferguson.

Despite the scorching heat, Ferguson and other vendors at the game were determined to provide some relief for the fans, pointing out the price difference between buying a bottle of water outside versus inside the stadium.

The summer of 2024 in Phoenix was proving to be exceptionally hot, with the city experiencing its 100th consecutive day of temperatures at or above 100 degrees, breaking previous records. Meteorologist Shawn Benedict from the National Weather Service highlighted the significance of this streak.

Experts attribute the escalating temperatures to climate change caused by human activities, leading to extreme heatwaves, wildfires, severe storms, and prolonged droughts. The relentless heat in Phoenix was evident, with temperatures surpassing 100 degrees Fahrenheit every day since late May.

The upcoming week was expected to bring unseasonably high temperatures across the Western U.S., with extreme heat warnings in effect for cities like Phoenix and Lake Havasu City in Arizona, as well as parts of Nevada and California.

In Maricopa County, Arizona, which includes Phoenix, public health officials reported a concerning number of heat-related deaths so far this year, with many cases still under investigation. The scorching conditions in 2024 were setting records not only in Phoenix but also in other Western states.

Amid the heatwave, California issued red flag warnings due to the increased risk of wildfires. Blazes had already started in some areas, leading to power outages and evacuations. The dangerous heat was a growing concern for residents and outdoor workers alike.

Although Chase Field provided some relief with its air-conditioned facility and closed retractable roof for most games, outdoor workers like Ferguson and landscaping professional Ramiro Lopez had to find ways to cope with the extreme heat during their work shifts.

As the record-breaking summer continued in Phoenix, staying cool and hydrated became essential for survival in the blistering heat. The challenges posed by the relentless heatwave were felt by everyone, especially in low-income communities where access to cooling facilities was limited.

Climatologists emphasized the importance of staying cool and hydrated to mitigate the health risks associated with prolonged exposure to high temperatures.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Unexpected wall designs that can help lower building temperatures

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Building design can affect temperature

Alistair Scott/Getty Images

A wall with a zigzag pattern can stay up to 3°C (5.4°F) cooler than a normal wall, without using any energy. This approach reduces the energy used by cooling systems and helps to curb global warming.

“Such designs can lead to cooler buildings,” says Qilong Cheng of Columbia University in New York, “and therefore reduce the energy consumption for cooling.”

As global temperatures rise and more people can afford air conditioners, their use is skyrocketing. Greenhouse gas emissions from cooling could increase more than threefold by 2050. As a result, many teams are working to develop passive cooling solutions that don't require any energy.

For example, simply painting roofs white can help keep buildings and cities cooler by allowing them to reflect more sunlight.

This method works even better if the roof is coated with a material that reflects most of the sunlight but emits infrared light within the transparency of the atmosphere — a range of wavelengths that aren't absorbed by atmospheric molecules such as carbon dioxide.

“Infrared light in this band can pass through the atmosphere and potentially reach space,” Chen said.

Materials with these properties have a great cooling effect on an upward-facing roof, but are less effective on walls. The problem is that materials that emit infrared light tend to absorb it, and surfaces close to walls, such as concrete pavements, can emit large amounts of infrared light.

The solution proposed by Chen and his team is to create a wall that has a series of projections that run parallel to the ground, forming a zigzag shape when viewed from the side. To visualize this, think of a staircase sloping upward at angles between 45 and 90 degrees.

The key is that the upward-facing zigzag surfaces (the treads in the staircase analogy) are atmospheric transparency windows that radiate large amounts of heat, while the downward-facing, outward-facing zigzag surfaces (the risers) reflect infrared heat rather than absorbing it.

To test the idea, the team built a 1-metre-tall model with both a zigzag and flat surface.When they placed it outside in New Jersey during the summer, the zigzag surface was 2°C cooler than the flat surface over a 24-hour average, and 3°C cooler between 1pm and 2pm.

Chen says there are plenty of inexpensive materials with the necessary properties. Existing buildings could be retrofitted by adding corrugated panels. The cooling effect inside a building varies depending on other factors, such as the size of the building's windows, but simulations suggest it could reduce temperatures by up to 2°C and cut the energy needed for cooling by up to a quarter.

The zigzag cooling wall is only suitable for hot climates, as colder regions would need more heating in winter. But Chen and his colleagues say They proposed a design with hinged “fins.” It can be raised in the winter to increase heat absorption and lowered in the summer to minimize heat absorption.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Planetary scientists suggest ‘Nanoparticle heating’ could raise temperatures on Mars

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One-third of Mars’ surface has shallow groundwater, but it is currently too cold for life to harness it. Proposals to use greenhouse gases to heat Mars require large amounts of raw materials that are scarce on the Martian surface. But a new study shows that artificial aerosols made from materials readily available on Mars (such as conductive nanorods about 9 micrometers long) could heat Mars more than 5,000 times more effectively than the best gases.

This artist’s impression shows what Mars looked like about 4 billion years ago. Image credit: M. Kornmesser / ESO.

Mars geoengineering is a concept that frequently appears in science fiction.

But real-world researchers are also investigating techniques that could melt and release frozen groundwater, potentially making the Martian environment more hospitable to life.

Many of these strategies involve warming through greenhouse gases, but the Earth lacks the ingredients needed to produce them.

“A once habitable Martian surface is crossed by dry river valleys, but the current icy soil is too cold for Earth-derived life,” said Dr Samaneh Ansari of Northwestern University and his colleagues.

“Rivers may have flowed as far back as 600,000 years ago, suggesting the beginnings of a habitable planet.”

“Many methods have been proposed to heat the Martian surface by closing the spectral window centered on wavelengths of 22 and 10 micrometers, through which the surface would be cooled by thermal infrared radiation rising into space.”

“Modern Mars has a thin carbon dioxide atmosphere that provides a greenhouse effect of only 5 Kelvin through absorption in the 15 micrometer wavelength range, and Mars clearly lacks sufficient condensed or mineralized carbon dioxide to restore a temperate climate,” the researchers said.

“It is possible to close the spectral window using man-made greenhouse gases (e.g. chlorofluorocarbons), but this would require volatilizing about 100,000 megatons of fluorine, which is only present in trace amounts on the Martian surface.”

“An alternative approach is suggested by natural Martian dust aerosols, which are, after all, the result of the slow breakdown of iron-rich minerals on the Martian surface.”

“Due to its small size (effective radius of 1.5 micrometers), Martian dust rises to high altitudes (at an altitude of 15-25 km, where the dust mass mixing ratio peaks) and is consistently visible in the Martian sky, present at altitudes of up to 60 km or more.”

“Natural Martian dust aerosols reduce daytime surface temperatures because the composition and shape properties of man-made dust can be modified. For example, nanorods, which are about half the wavelength of upwelling thermal infrared light, should interact strongly with that infrared light.”

In the new paper, Dr Ansari and his co-authors propose an alternative strategy for heating Mars: aerosolizing 9-micrometre-long nanorods made from iron and aluminium, which are available on Mars.

The bars are about the same size as natural Martian dust — essentially a bit smaller than glitter — and should fly up into the air when dispersed.

However, other properties of the rod-shaped material mean it should settle 10 times slower than natural dust.

The researchers evaluated their proposal using a version of the MarsWRF global climate model and another complementary 1D model.

The study found that these bars amplify the amount of sunlight reaching the Martian surface and prevent heat from escaping.

In fact, a sustained release of 30 liters of nanorods per second could warm the entire planet by more than 30 Kelvin above baseline temperature, enough to melt the ice.

After a few months, atmospheric pressure will rise by 20%, creating conditions to initiate a feedforward loop involving the volatilization of carbon dioxide.

It’s worth noting that the nanorod process will still take centuries, and Mars certainly won’t be a suitable place for human habitation.

“The increase in Martian temperature alone will not be sufficient to make the Martian surface habitable for oxygenic photosynthetic organisms,” the scientists said.

“On the other hand, establishing a photosynthetic biosphere on the Martian surface, possibly with the help of synthetic biology, might increase the chances of human thriving in the solar system.”

Team work Published in today’s journal Scientific advances.

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Samaneh Ansari others2024. Nanoparticles could keep Mars warm. Scientific advances 10(32);doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn4650

Source: www.sci.news

Sunday reached record-breaking temperatures as the hottest day ever recorded on Earth.

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summary

  • According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, Sunday was the hottest day on record.
  • The global average temperature reached 17.09 degrees Celsius (62.76 degrees Fahrenheit), breaking the previous record set in July last year.
  • Last month was the hottest June on record worldwide.

Sunday is The hottest day on record According to data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, on Earth:

The global average temperature reached 17.09 degrees Celsius (about 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit), slightly surpassing the previous record of 17.08 degrees Celsius recorded on July 6, 2023.

“We are now in truly uncharted territory and there is no doubt that new records will be broken in the coming months and years as the climate continues to warm,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement.

So far, both July this year and July 2023 have been much warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average, according to Copernicus data. Before last year, the hottest day on record was August 12, 2016, when the average temperature reached 16.8 degrees.

Last week, a heatwave that hit southern and central Europe reportedly sparked wildfires in southern Italy, forcing the Greek Ministry of Culture to close the Acropolis for several hours. Associated Press.

In the United States, High temperature warning Six states, including Arizona, California and Montana, enacted special heat stroke laws on Tuesday. Officials believe more than 300 people have died from heat stroke in Maricopa County, Arizona, so far this year.

Last month was the hottest June on record globally, breaking records for the 13th consecutive month of record high temperatures. Copernicus Service Monitoring.

“As it gets hotter, we're going to have to significantly recalibrate how we live our lives,” said Bharat Venkat, director of the UCLA Thermal Lab, which studies the effects of rising temperatures.

As a more personal example, Venkat said he took his dog for a walk at a local mall this summer because the sidewalk was “really hot and I was worried his paws would get burned.”

He stressed that at a larger, more severe level, “many of these adverse effects overlap with existing social inequalities.”

People with underlying medical conditions are more susceptible to heatstroke. People who work outdoors, like delivery people or farmers, face a bigger problem. Certain structures, like prisons and food trucks, retain more heat, making them especially hot for people inside.

Global average temperatures typically peak between late June and early August because this is the hottest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, which contains most of the world's land mass and population.

In the Southern Hemisphere, average temperatures are also rising due to melting Antarctic sea ice, the Copernicus Service reported.

This year has been particularly warm because of an El Niño weather pattern, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and climate writer at Yale University's Climate Connections.

La Niña is Estimated Arrival There should be a moderate cooling effect over the next few months.

But overall temperatures will continue to rise and records will continue to be broken, Henson said.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Extreme weather ushers in the start of summer, from scorching temperatures to devastating floods

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summary

  • In the last week alone, extreme weather has wreaked havoc in many parts of the United States and around the world.
  • Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme temperatures and heavy rainfall such as those seen recently.
  • This year has been the warmest on record so far, with ocean temperatures breaking new records for more than 15 months.

Summer is quickly becoming a brutal season: Last week alone, record-breaking June heat forced schools to close across the Northeast and slowed some trains, flooding caused bridges to collapse in the Midwest and inundated towns across three states, and tropical storm-force winds prompted disaster declarations for 51 Texas counties.

The threat of climate change lurks behind many recent events.

“Last year, of course, was the warmest year on record by a pretty large margin, and this year, so far, has been the warmest on record for this time of June,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said at a briefing on Monday.

While it will take time for climate scientists to understand and calculate the impact of global warming on individual weather events, the science is clear that as the planet warms, the likelihood of extreme temperatures increases, and the risk of heavy rains increases because a warmer atmosphere can hold and release more moisture.

As a result, the effects of climate change will be more noticeable in the summer, Swain said.

“It’s not surprising that we’re seeing another wave of record-breaking heat and record-breaking rainfall. It’s exhausting, but I think it’s really important that we don’t forget or let it slip away,” he said. “And this heat is especially pronounced in the summer, because, of course, the Northern Hemisphere summer is when most people on the planet experience the hottest weather.”

Extremely heavy rainfall over the weekend flooded communities in at least 80 counties in Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota, temporarily isolating the town of Spencer, Iowa, of 11,000 people from the rest of the state. About 2,000 structures, including hundreds of homes, were damaged in Iowa alone.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Cooling fabric reduces heat transfer from pavements and buildings in urban areas with high temperatures

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A scorching hot day in Bucharest, Romania, June 2019

lcv / Alamy

In the future, city dwellers could beat the heat with clothes made from new fabrics that keep them cool.

Made from plastic material and silver nanowires, the fabric is designed to keep you cool in urban environments by using the principle of radiative cooling, a natural process in which objects radiate heat back into space.

The material selectively emits a narrow band of infrared light that allows it to escape the Earth’s atmosphere, while at the same time blocking radiation from the sun and from surrounding structures.

Jo Bo-jun, a researcher from the University of Chicago, Illinois, and his team say the material “is more than half [the radiation]” from buildings and the ground,” he says.

Some cooling fabrics and building materials already use this radiative cooling principle, but most of their designs don’t take into account radiation from the sun or infrared radiation from structures like buildings and pavements, and they assume the materials are oriented horizontally against the sky, like roof panels, rather than vertically like clothing worn by a person.

Such designs “work well when they face something cooler, like the sky or a field,” Su says, “but not when they face an urban heat island.”

Xu and his colleagues designed a three-layered fabric: the inner layer is made from common clothing fabrics like wool or cotton, and the middle layer is made up of silver nanowires that reflect most of the radiation.

The top layer is made of a plastic material called polymethylpentene, which does not absorb or reflect most wavelengths and emits a narrow band of infrared light.

In outdoor tests, the fabric remained 8.9°C (16°F) cooler than regular silk fabric and 2.3°C (4.1°F) cooler than a broad-spectrum radiation-emitting material. When tested against the skin, the fabric was 1.8°C (3.2°F) cooler than cotton fabric.

Su said this slight difference in temperature could theoretically increase the amount of time a person can comfortably be exposed to heat by up to a third, but that this has yet to be tested.

“It’s always been difficult to make this material practical as a fiber.” Aswath Raman, the UCLA researcher added that the study is a good example of applying the physical principles of radiative cooling to a practical material. Other materials with similar properties could also be used on vertical surfaces in buildings, he said.

Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.adl0653

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Parts of California and Arizona to experience triple-digit temperatures this week

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By Monday morning, firefighters had built containment lines around three-quarters of the fire.

“The humidity is starting to drop,” Kurth said. “We’re seeing an increase in grass fires.”

He noted that the heat wave that began this week is not unusual for Central California in August, but because it started so quickly, it could become more severe because “people aren’t used to the heat.”

“If a heatwave occurs early in the season, the impact on people could be greater,” he said.

He said high early-season surf could also increase the risk of drowning in the Western mountains, where people often flock to rivers and streams fed by melting snow.

“The water is pretty cold and the currents are strong,” Kurth said. “Please be careful and wear your life jackets.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted last month that 2024 will be one of the five warmest years on record and could easily be the hottest year on record.

Last year, a prolonged heatwave hit much of the South and Southwest, causing a sharp rise in deaths.

Adrian Mata stands in a little shade while waiting for a bus in Phoenix on July 15.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images file

More than 2,300 people who died in the United States last summer mentioned heat on their death certificates, the highest number in 45 years, according to an Associated Press analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, but its impact can be obscured in death certificate data because heat often aggravates underlying conditions like heart, respiratory and kidney disease. Researchers at Texas A&M University estimated that heat was responsible for 11,000 deaths last year that would not have occurred otherwise, according to the Associated Press.

A weather pattern, such as a ridge of high pressure that is expected to develop this week, is responsible for many of these deaths.

Temperatures in the Phoenix area topped 110 degrees Fahrenheit every day except one last July, according to data from the National Weather Service. Scientists later concluded that would be “virtually impossible” without the effects of climate change. At least 645 people died from heatstroke in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and many of its suburbs, last year, a 52% increase from the previous year.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

English oaks are resilient to warming temperatures, whereas other trees may falter

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English oak trees may be more tolerant of warm climates than other species

Greens and Blues/Shutterstock

English oak trees are expected to form the basis of future reforestation projects and timber plantations in Europe, as one of the only native species flexible enough to withstand the rapid climate change expected in the next century. It will be done.

European forests are a mix of different tree species, all of which have been able to withstand local climate fluctuations for hundreds of years.

But climate change means that trees planted today, for example for tree plantations and timber plantations, must be able to withstand both current conditions and those of a warmer world in 2100.

Johannes Wessely Professors at the University of Vienna in Austria studied 69 of Europe's most common tree species to assess how well they meet this challenge.

English oak (Quercus serrata) is one of the only species assessed as suitable to thrive under current and future conditions across many regions, Wesley says. Importantly, he says, English oak is “very important for timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity” and is suitable for all types of reforestation projects across Europe.

However, European beech (Beech), you will have a hard time. Many places where European beech was planted and would grow today will be unsuitable later this century, but many areas where beech could grow later this century would be climatically unsuitable today. Research has revealed this.

Overall, the researchers found that depending on the rate of climate change, the average number of tree species per square kilometer that can survive continuously until 2100 could fall by a third to half. discovered.

This means that some forests in Europe consist of only a few tree species and may lack the diversity and resilience of mixed forests.

Wessely said the discovery means “we should be very careful about what we plant today, because it will shape our future forests and their future.”

He suggests that conservationists may even need to replant woodlands with fresh species later this century to ensure that forests can thrive beyond 2100.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Olympic athletes may encounter tough competition in the form of scorching Paris temperatures

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Pierre Maslow, a statistician at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, stated that Paris is considered the highest risk city among all European capitals. Heat exposure concerns in 854 European cities.

The Olympic Village in Paris will feature a wildlife-friendly rooftop, environmentally-friendly building materials, and green spaces including a public park.

However, as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the event, no air conditioning will be installed in the players’ rooms. Instead, the complex will rely on natural airflow cooling and groundwater cooling systems. Organizers mentioned that even in the heat, nighttime temperatures do not exceed 79 degrees. Read more here.

A study in Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science suggests that heatwave temperatures are on the rise in comparison to 2003. Temperatures could now reach up to 7 degrees F higher than during the 2003 heatwave.

During the last Summer Olympics in Tokyo, extreme heat affected many athletes, leading to rescheduling of events. About 110 athletes suffered heatstroke during the Tokyo Games due to high temperatures. Endurance events were moved to Sapporo to deal with the heat.

The absence of spectators at the Tokyo Games helped reduce the burden on medical staff, according to Shota Tanaka, a part-time researcher at Kokushikan University. However, this is an issue that Paris must consider as the number of heatstroke cases is expected to be high.

Tanaka added, “Holding the Olympics in August is fundamentally a risky idea from a heatstroke perspective.” Athletes typically prepare for the heat several weeks before the games.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

It is possible that global temperatures surpassed 1.5°C of warming a decade ago.

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Activists participating in COP28 climate change conference to be held in Dubai in December 2023

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The 1.5°C limit was exceeded in 2010 or 2011, and the world is already 1.8°C warmer than it was before the industrial revolution, according to researchers using sponges to find out how seawater and air temperatures in the Caribbean have changed through 2018. The researchers who investigated this claim. Past 300 years.

“The increase in Earth's average surface temperature was 0.5 degrees Celsius greater than currently accepted estimates.” Malcolm McCulloch at the University of Western Australia. “What our research shows is that global warming scenarios are 10 years away, or even further.”

But other climate scientists argue that data from a single region is not a reliable way to understand past global temperatures.

The 2015 Paris Agreement called on countries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but it did not define exactly what this meant. So climate scientists compiling the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report defined it as the average temperature from 1850 to 1900.

By this time, the Earth had already begun to warm as a result of emissions from burning fossil fuels. However, because there were few temperature measurements before 1850, there is great uncertainty about how much warming was caused by fossil fuels during the early industrial era. Therefore, choosing 1850–1900 as the baseline was pragmatic.

But McCulloch and his colleagues think they have discovered exactly what fossil fuel-induced warming was early on after analyzing samples of very long-lived sponges (Ceratoporella nicolsoni) forms a calcium carbonate skeleton.

The 10-centimeter-wide corpora cavernosa could be about 400 years old, team members say amos winter at Indiana State University. “These sponges grow very slowly.”

The sponges were collected by divers at depths of 33 to 91 meters off the coast of Puerto Rico. Although the original goal was to study the ocean's pH in the past, the researchers also measured the ratio of strontium to calcium, which varied with water temperature when calcium carbonate was formed.

Researchers noticed a close correlation between temperatures “recorded” by sponges and the average surface temperature of the Earth measured by instruments, especially after 1960, when measurements became more reliable. That means there is.

“This is kind of a serendipitous discovery, but the connection is very strong,” McCulloch says. “They are changing proportionately to the world average. The main differences occur when instrumental records are the poorest.”

The researchers therefore calculated the average global temperature before the industrial revolution back to 1,700 degrees Celsius, assuming that the sponges accurately reflected this.

The researchers believe their study should be taken into account when assessing whether the IPCC has exceeded the 1.5°C limit. “The bottom line is yes, the IPCC should take this issue seriously,” McCulloch said.

He also thinks climate modelers need to take the findings into account. If previous carbon emissions are causing more warming than thought, the impact of further emissions may be underestimated, he says.

But other climate scientists are far from convinced. “In my view, it would be imprudent to claim that an instrumental record is wrong based on paleocavernoids from one region of the world,” he says. michael man at the University of Pennsylvania. “That doesn't make sense to me. That said, our own early research supports the idea that there was at least another 0.2 degrees Celsius of warming by the late 19th century.”

In fact, anthropogenic warming may have started thousands of years ago. According to the early Anthropocene hypothesis proposed by William Ruddiman The University of Virginia announced that the first farmers' clearing of forests and creation of rice paddies produced enough carbon dioxide and methane to stop the planet from cooling and entering a new ice age.

Recent studies by other researchers have provided increasing evidence to support this hypothesis, but it is still far from being widely accepted.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Rising Temperatures Lead to Minimal Ice on Great Lakes

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The Great Lakes, known for ice fishing and winter's frozen waves, rang out a nearly bare New Year's bell.

Less than 0.4% of ice covered the Great Lakes on New Year's Day, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Institute, which uses satellite data to measure ice concentrations.

“There's basically nothing,” said James Kessler, a physical scientist at the institute, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We have about 50 years of data. Today's average for January 1st is about 9%.”

Kessler said that although ice coverage is well below normal, it is not unheard of for ice concentrations to fall below 1% on January 1, still early in the season.

The amount of ice on the Great Lakes (Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Erie, and Lake Ontario) determines when and how raw materials and cargo are shipped from ports in the Midwest. Fish species such as whitefish are covered in ice to protect their eggs for reproduction. Lower ice levels could increase erosion and contribute to changes in weather patterns in the region.

Kessler said temperatures have been unseasonably high this season, making it difficult for ice to form on the lake's surface. According to his research, the Great Lakes' annual ice area varies greatly from year to year, but tends to decline at a rate of about 5% every decade.

“This is certainly a sign of climate change,” he says.

Ice typically reaches its maximum extent from mid-February to early March. In a typical year, about 40% of the Great Lakes are covered in ice at peak times.

Last year, ice coverage reached about 23% and by mid-February the ice had diminished. just covered 7% of the lake.

In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, largely due to human-induced climate change. Researchers expect temperatures to rise further this year due to El Niño, a natural climate pattern that releases ocean heat into the atmosphere.El Niño winter Warmer trends across the Great Lakes region.

seasonal outlook Temperatures in the Great Lakes region are expected to be higher than normal this year. below average ice.

Forecasters expect little change this week.

Over the next five days, “temperatures are expected to remain near normal across the Great Lakes region, making the forecast less favorable for ice growth,” one report said. Ice outlook prepared by the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

Source: www.nbcnews.com