This year’s COP, commencing on November 10 in Belém, Brazil, is not expected to yield a substantial new global agreement for addressing climate change. The emphasis will be on clarifying the operational details of existing agreements.

Prior to the summit, nations were tasked with submitting revised pledges to lower emissions, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, only 67 out of 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement have done so. Countries have until the end of October to revise their plans; ones to watch are the European Union, which has set targets as a consortium, and India, which is currently lagging. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement effectively rendered the United States’ commitments void. Goals submitted under President Joe Biden’s administration are expected in December 2024.

On a more optimistic note, China has committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from their peak by 2035. While this falls short of curbing global warming to 2°C, it marks a progress towards the country’s initial absolute emissions reduction target. “This is a significant advance compared to what we’ve witnessed in the past, and it’s essential to view it positively,” remarked Manuel Pulgar Vidal, WWF’s global leader for climate and energy.

Adapting to climate change

Two agenda items may play critical roles in both mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Brazil is championing the Belém Action Mechanism for a Just Transition, a fresh approach that repositions the global shift to clean energy as an avenue for job creation and growth rather than just economic hardship. The initiative aims to aid nations in transforming key sectors such as energy, mining, and agriculture, anticipating pledges and systems to revamp industries while supporting communities impacted by these transitions.

However, in light of the severe backdrop of climate change, COP’s agenda seems to be transitioning from preventing climate change to adapting to its impacts. “COPs 1 through 29 unfolded under one climate paradigm; we now face a different climate reality, necessitating efforts to enhance safety for people,” noted Laurie Rayborn, a member of the climate think tank “Strategic Climate Risk Initiative.”

Another significant initiative is the Global Goals on Adaptation (GGA), which aims to quantify and compare the vulnerability of nations to climate change. It is set to include approximately 100 indicators like flood risk and food security. The GGA will facilitate global decisions on which nations should receive financial support and is a critical step toward financing those most affected.

However, world leaders must avoid becoming overly fixated on adaptation at the expense of mitigation, cautioned Leyborn. “There are scenarios where mitigation takes a backseat, but that leads to nowhere. Less mitigation translates to more adaptation, and we could be caught in a destructive cycle.”

Addressing fiscal disparities

As affluent nations fall short in providing the necessary financing for developing countries to adapt and combat climate change, Brazil aims to maintain funding aligned with the Baku to Belém roadmap. The target is to escalate global climate finance to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.

Low-income nations are looking to their wealthier counterparts for subsidies while they struggle with the impacts of significant emissions that harm their agriculture. Wealthy nations are exploring funding avenues via private investments, debt exchanges, development bank support, and innovative financing strategies such as Tropical Forest Forever Facilities (TFFFs).

The TFFF is anticipated to launch formally at COP30 to finance forest conservation through private investment. Brazil and other nations will secure initial investments into the fund, which can then borrow nearly $100 billion from major private investors at favorable interest rates. The TFFF will reinvest these borrowed funds into sustainable initiatives that yield higher returns, with profits directly benefiting nations that safeguard their forests.

Brazil is already committing a billion dollars while the World Bank has agreed to host the fund by the end of October. The TFFF has the potential to create a sustainable conservation model that could generate $4 billion each year for the preservation of the world’s diminishing forests.

With few ambitious declarations anticipated at the COP, the pressure on the TFFF to succeed is rising, necessitating substantial investments from many nations in the billions.

“The TFFF’s launch is likely to be a highlight amid the struggles faced in international climate negotiations. Its success will serve as a crucial indicator for the future we face with significant climate shifts,” stated Simon Zadek from Morphosys, a Swiss climate finance consulting firm.