Consider having a life-threatening illness. All scientific assessments point to a definitive diagnosis and a grim prognosis. Yet, upon visiting a doctor, they fail to acknowledge the condition directly. After some brief small talk, they shake your hand and suggest scheduling your next appointment in a year.
No one would accept such a medical standard, yet this mirrors our approach to climate change. The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP) Summit wrapped up last weekend in Belém, Brazil. While notable strides have been made in addressing climate change, particularly with the 2015 Paris Agreement aimed at restricting temperature increases to below 1.5°C, this goal is largely unachieved. Nonetheless, it steers us towards reduced warming compared to what might have been without it.
However, it’s evident that the COP process is becoming inadequate for the challenges we face. As highlighted in our report on page 6, COP30 concluded without even mentioning fossil fuels—the primary driver of climate change—in the final document. Despite over 80 nations advocating for a roadmap toward a “post-fossil fuel transition,” this initiative faced resistance from oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia, a former organizer of COP. The necessity of consensus within COP leaves us only with the promise of future discussions at COP31 in Turkey next year.
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Nations advocating for climate action should prioritize solar power and battery technology. “
This situation cannot persist, but changing the COP process will be a challenge. If we can’t advocate for an end to the fossil fuel era through scientific and political means, we must turn to technological and economic solutions.
Nations committed to climate action should concentrate on solar energy and battery technologies, providing the world with cheaper alternatives to oil and gas. Countries striving for a sustainable future might need to implement economic sanctions against those showing disinterest in progress. Whatever the course of action, simply saying “see you next year” is no longer a viable option.
COP30 President Andre Correa de Lago (centre) alongside Advisor and UN Climate Change Secretary Simon Stiel (left)
Pablo Porciuncula/AFP via Getty Images
The COP30 climate summit held by the United Nations in Brazil faced severe challenges, including heavy rainfall, protests, and a partial electrical fire. The concluding session was momentarily halted over objections to the perceived weakness of the finalized document.
Despite these hurdles, the globally recognized climate action framework continued, with nearly all nations except the United States engaging in 12 days of discussions in the Amazon to establish a unified framework.
Notably, the final agreement omitted any mention of fossil fuels, responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions, despite a prior commitment made at COP28 in Dubai to pivot away from such energy sources. Over 80 nations at COP30 aimed for a detailed transition plan regarding fossil fuels, but oil-exporting nations excluded a key clause that mandated unanimous consent from all 194 countries.
“An agreement born out of climate change denial is a failed agreement,” remarked Diana Mejía, the Colombian representative, expressing support from delegates from Panama and Uruguay who voiced frustrations about Brazil’s dismissal of their comments before the text’s submission.
Brazil argued it was unaware of the request but committed to helping draft a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels outside the UN’s framework.
“It’s akin to designing a board game,” commented Natalie Jones, a professor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, reflecting on the stalled transition roadmap, “We’re engaged in play, yet some are still deliberating on the rule set.”
The final decision, named “Global Mutilan” after an indigenous Brazilian term for “collective endeavor,” at least indicated that international collaboration on climate issues has withstood some severe challenges this year, as U.N. Climate Secretary Simon Stiel noted. said in his closing remarks.
President Donald Trump again withdrew the United States, the second-largest emitter globally, from the COP process, threatening to do the same with Argentina, raising alarms about the potential collapse of annual negotiations. Throughout other global conferences this year, the U.S. has sought to advance talks on minimizing shipping emissions and reducing plastic pollution.
Corporate entities, industry coalitions, and non-profits have also begun retreating from addressing climate change, with Bill Gates suggesting a focus on poverty and health instead of emissions at COP30.
A decade post the Paris Agreement at COP21, which aimed to cap global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, we are currently experiencing steady progress towards 2.6℃— an increase that had already approached 4°C before the agreement’s onset.
In a letter to the UN last year, leading scientists and diplomats expressed concerns that the COP process is “no longer fit for purpose.” However, one of the letter’s signatories, former Irish president Mary Robinson, commented post-COP30 that many nations are moving forward “during a time when multilateralism is under stress.”
The nations reaffirmed their collective commitment to the Paris Agreement and the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In conjunction with climate pledges, the G20 Summit Declaration was issued on the same day, while participants from major economies, along with the U.S., opted out, describing it as “a significant pushback against Trump.” Joanna Depledge, a COP historian at the University of Cambridge, remarked.
This conveys a strong message to businesses, investors, and local authorities, according to her.
As foreign aid budgets decline and the U.S. eliminates aid agencies, low-income nations are expressing dissatisfaction with historically large polluters for not aiding them in coping with climate challenges. COP30 acknowledged the necessity to devise a “just transition mechanism” for support, also promising to triple adaptation funding, though the specifics remain vague, and the original deadline of 2030 has been postponed to 2035.
“Beyond the just transition mechanism… there’s little to celebrate,” said Harjeet Singh from the Satthat Sampada Climate Foundation, which aids climate-vulnerable populations. “We should have aimed higher.”
COP30, convened in Belém at the Amazon’s edge, did not achieve consensus on a plan to halt and reverse deforestation, despite the efforts of over 90 nations. Prior to the summit, however, Brazil launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, an investment initiative rewarding countries for maintaining forest areas.
Brazil and its sponsors have so far contributed $6.6 billion to the fund, which is far below the $25 billion target. Tightening the fund’s operational guidelines is necessary, stated Kate Dooley from the University of Melbourne, indicating that it represents a welcome shift away from carbon offsets that yield no actual climate benefits.
“Brazil’s leadership on deforestation could be among the top outcomes from COP30,” remarked Marco Duso, a sustainability consultant at Ernst & Young. “And this leadership is resonating on the global stage.”
aArtificial intelligence is frequently linked to massive electricity consumption, resulting in global warming emissions that often support unproductive or misleading gains which contribute little to human advancement.
However, some AI proponents at a significant UN climate summit are presenting an alternative perspective. Could AI actually assist in addressing the climate crisis rather than exacerbating it?
The discussion of “AI for good” resonated at the Cop30 conference in Belem, Brazil, where advocates claim AI has the potential to lower emissions through various efficiencies that could impact multiple aspects of daily life, including food, transportation, and energy—major contributors to environmental pollution.
Recently, a coalition of organizations, UN agencies, and the Brazilian government announced the establishment of the AI Climate Institute, a new global initiative aimed at leveraging AI as a tool for empowerment to assist developing nations in addressing environmental issues.
Proponents assert that, over time, this initiative will educate countries on utilizing AI in various ways to curb emissions, including enhancing public transportation, streamlining agricultural systems, and adjusting energy grids to facilitate the timely integration of renewable energy.
Forecasting weather patterns, including the mapping of impending climate crises like floods and wildfires, could also be refined through this approach, remarked Maria João Souza, executive director of Climate Change AI, one of the organizations involved in the initiative.
“Numerical weather prediction models demand significant computational power, which limits their implementation in many regions,” she noted. “I believe AI will act as a beneficial force that accelerates many of these advancements.”
Lorenzo Sarr, chief sustainability officer at Clarity AI and also present at Cop30, emphasized that AI could aid in tracking emissions and biodiversity, providing insights into current conditions.
“One can truly begin to identify the problem areas,” he said. “Then predictions can be made. These forecasts can address both short-term and long-term scenarios. We can predict next week’s flooding, and also analyze phenomena like rising sea levels.”
Sarr acknowledged valid concerns regarding AI’s societal and governance impacts, but he expressed optimism that the overall environmental outcomes could be beneficial. A report released in June by the London School of Economics delivered unexpectedly positive projections, suggesting that AI could slash global greenhouse gas emissions by 3.2 billion to 5.4 billion tons over the next decade, even factoring in significant energy usage.
“People already make poor energy choices, such as overusing their air conditioners,” Sarr commented. “How much of what we do on our phones is detrimental? It’s a recurring thought for me. How many hours do we spend scrolling through Instagram?”
“I believe society will gravitate toward this direction. We must consider how to prevent harming the planet through heating while ensuring a net positive impact.”
Yet, some experts and environmental advocates remain skeptical. The immense computational demands of AI, particularly in the case of generative models, are driving a surge in data centers in countries like the U.S., which consume vast quantities of electricity and water—even in drought-prone areas—leading to surging electricity costs in certain regions.
The climate ramifications of this AI surge, propelled by companies like Google, Meta, and OpenAI, are considerable and likely to increase, as indicated by a recent study from Cornell University. This impact is comparable to adding 10 million gasoline cars to the roads or matching the annual emissions of all of Norway.
“There exists a techno-utopian belief that AI will rescue us from the climate crisis,” stated Jean Hsu, a climate activist at the Center for Biological Diversity. “However, we know what truly will save us from the climate crisis: the gradual elimination of fossil fuels, not AI.”
While AI may indeed enhance efficiency and lower emissions, these same technologies can be leveraged to optimize fossil fuel extraction as well. A recent report by Wood Mackenzie estimated that AI could potentially unlock an additional trillion barrels of oil. Such a scenario, if accepted by energy markets, would obliterate any chances of preventing severe climate change.
Natasha Hospedares, lead attorney for AI at Client Earth, remarked that while the “AI for good” argument holds some validity, it represents “a very small niche” within a far larger industry focused primarily on maximizing profits.
“There is some evidence that AI could assist developing nations, but much of this is either in the early stages or remains hypothetical, and actual implementation is still lacking,” she stated. “Overall, we are significantly distant from achieving a state where AI consistently mitigates its detrimental environmental impacts.”
“The environmental consequences of AI are already alarming, and I don’t foresee a slowdown in data center expansion anytime soon. A minor fraction of AI is being applied for beneficial purposes, while the vast majority is being exploited by companies like Google and Meta, primarily for profit at the expense of the environment and human rights.”
Solar power plants in South Africa – discussions on clean energy support at COP30
Emmanuel Crozet/AFP via Getty Images
This year’s COP, commencing on November 10 in Belém, Brazil, is not expected to yield a substantial new global agreement for addressing climate change. The emphasis will be on clarifying the operational details of existing agreements.
Prior to the summit, nations were tasked with submitting revised pledges to lower emissions, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, only 67 out of 195 signatories of the Paris Agreement have done so. Countries have until the end of October to revise their plans; ones to watch are the European Union, which has set targets as a consortium, and India, which is currently lagging. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement effectively rendered the United States’ commitments void. Goals submitted under President Joe Biden’s administration are expected in December 2024.
On a more optimistic note, China has committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from their peak by 2035. While this falls short of curbing global warming to 2°C, it marks a progress towards the country’s initial absolute emissions reduction target. “This is a significant advance compared to what we’ve witnessed in the past, and it’s essential to view it positively,” remarked Manuel Pulgar Vidal, WWF’s global leader for climate and energy.
Adapting to climate change
Two agenda items may play critical roles in both mitigating and adapting to climate change.
Brazil is championing the Belém Action Mechanism for a Just Transition, a fresh approach that repositions the global shift to clean energy as an avenue for job creation and growth rather than just economic hardship. The initiative aims to aid nations in transforming key sectors such as energy, mining, and agriculture, anticipating pledges and systems to revamp industries while supporting communities impacted by these transitions.
However, in light of the severe backdrop of climate change, COP’s agenda seems to be transitioning from preventing climate change to adapting to its impacts. “COPs 1 through 29 unfolded under one climate paradigm; we now face a different climate reality, necessitating efforts to enhance safety for people,” noted Laurie Rayborn, a member of the climate think tank “Strategic Climate Risk Initiative.”
Another significant initiative is the Global Goals on Adaptation (GGA), which aims to quantify and compare the vulnerability of nations to climate change. It is set to include approximately 100 indicators like flood risk and food security. The GGA will facilitate global decisions on which nations should receive financial support and is a critical step toward financing those most affected.
However, world leaders must avoid becoming overly fixated on adaptation at the expense of mitigation, cautioned Leyborn. “There are scenarios where mitigation takes a backseat, but that leads to nowhere. Less mitigation translates to more adaptation, and we could be caught in a destructive cycle.”
Addressing fiscal disparities
As affluent nations fall short in providing the necessary financing for developing countries to adapt and combat climate change, Brazil aims to maintain funding aligned with the Baku to Belém roadmap. The target is to escalate global climate finance to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
Low-income nations are looking to their wealthier counterparts for subsidies while they struggle with the impacts of significant emissions that harm their agriculture. Wealthy nations are exploring funding avenues via private investments, debt exchanges, development bank support, and innovative financing strategies such as Tropical Forest Forever Facilities (TFFFs).
The TFFF is anticipated to launch formally at COP30 to finance forest conservation through private investment. Brazil and other nations will secure initial investments into the fund, which can then borrow nearly $100 billion from major private investors at favorable interest rates. The TFFF will reinvest these borrowed funds into sustainable initiatives that yield higher returns, with profits directly benefiting nations that safeguard their forests.
Brazil is already committing a billion dollars while the World Bank has agreed to host the fund by the end of October. The TFFF has the potential to create a sustainable conservation model that could generate $4 billion each year for the preservation of the world’s diminishing forests.
With few ambitious declarations anticipated at the COP, the pressure on the TFFF to succeed is rising, necessitating substantial investments from many nations in the billions.
“The TFFF’s launch is likely to be a highlight amid the struggles faced in international climate negotiations. Its success will serve as a crucial indicator for the future we face with significant climate shifts,” stated Simon Zadek from Morphosys, a Swiss climate finance consulting firm.
Preparatory ministerial meeting in Brasilia, Brazil ahead of COP30
Ton Molina/Bloomberg via Getty Images
As world leaders converge for the latest United Nations climate change conference a decade after the landmark COP21 summit in Paris, pessimism looms large. With the pivotal 1.5°C target already deemed unattainable and even the more lenient 2°C objective appearing increasingly elusive, the atmosphere is charged with concern.
The United Nations Environment Programme suggests, based on current national commitments, that the world is on track for a temperature rise of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. Climatologists emphasize that the upcoming 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties in Belem, Brazil, could be crucial in altering the course of global warming, with oceans, forests, and polar ice sheets nearing tipping points. Significant action is essential to assist poorer nations in securing the estimated $1.3 trillion necessary each year by 2030 to transition away from fossil fuels, mitigate climate change, and adapt to its consequences.
Manuel Pulgar Vidal, WWF’s global leader in climate and energy, states, “The climate debate is under serious threat from not just political decisions but also economic, financial, and trade factors.” He adds that this makes the upcoming COP perhaps one of the most consequential since 2009, as vital as Paris but in an entirely different context.
In reality, however, the expectations held by negotiators are muted. The prospect of a groundbreaking multilateral agreement akin to that of Paris seems far-fetched in the current fragmented political landscape.
The previous COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded with disappointing outcomes, as wealthier nations pledged considerably fewer fiscal contributions than poorer counterparts anticipated. Consequently, trust in the COP process has diminished, leading to discussions on whether the existing framework is still viable.
“Private investment is lacking, nations appear to be retreating on their commitments to move away from fossil fuels, and there are no new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) offered,” remarks Claudio Angelo from Brazilian NGO Klima Observatory. “The atmosphere surrounding climate action feels incredibly strained.”
Tensions ignited by trade disputes and geopolitical conflicts have infiltrated climate negotiations, with former President Trump actively opposing climate initiatives. He notably withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and curtailed efforts to limit fossil fuel use, urging other nations to do the same. On October 17, the International Maritime Organization postponed the formal endorsement of a plan aimed at reducing maritime emissions, incited by Trump’s threats of sanctions against supportive countries.
Economic sluggishness, rising living costs, and a rise in populist sentiments are complicating the implementation of climate-friendly policies. “2025 is shaping up to be the worst year for global climate action,” concludes Angelo.
Europe was initially anticipated to take a leadership role in climate diplomacy following the withdrawal of U.S. support; however, the continent remains divided as defense priorities, trade issues, and escalating energy expenses dominate discussions.
In Brazil, the host nation, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—who campaigned on environmental protection—has approved new highway constructions in the Amazon and oil prospecting in the region, with an eye towards the upcoming elections.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visits the main venue of COP30 in Belem
Alessandro Falco/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Bringing the COP to Belem is also a contentious choice. This first-ever Amazon COP aims to highlight the stories of those and the forests affected by climate change, underscoring the bold vision necessary for global salvation. The Ministry of the Environment has declared that a greater number of indigenous delegates than ever before will attend COP30.
Nonetheless, many participants regard this decision as imprudent. A shortage of available accommodation has driven up prices, forcing NGOs, diplomats, and businesses to seek alternative sleeping arrangements like tents, shipping containers, or hammocks.
The United Nations also restricts accreditation, leading to concerns that rather than being an “implementing COP,” this one may turn out to be an “empty COP.”
“An organization that had eight certifications last year only secured two this time,” notes Carla Cardenas from the Rights and Resources Initiative, a coalition advocating for land rights for indigenous peoples. Cardenas raised worries that civil society groups aiming to hold leaders accountable may face restrictions in attendance while oil and gas lobbying organizations, which possess larger budgets, remain unaffected.
Ahead of the summit, there are some indications of a positive shift. Fears that not enough leaders would attend to achieve a quorum have lessened, as high-profile figures like Britain’s Keir Starmer decide to make last-minute trips.
Amid declining multilateralism, Brazil, known for its mediating role on the global stage, could serve as an ideal host to unite divergent perspectives within climate diplomacy.
The president’s office is adopting a practical stance in negotiations, indicating that no major headline-making declarations are anticipated this time. Brazil’s focus will likely be on implementing existing agreements rather than chasing media-friendly headlines.
While substantial international breakthroughs in Belém are unlikely, there remains potential for cities, regions, and businesses committed to climate action to step forward, according to Thomas Hale from Oxford University. Groups of states collaborating to announce environmental initiatives could still have a significant influence.
“Countries resistant to change, like the U.S., may stay on the sidelines, but that won’t define where the real action occurs,” he explains. “Although we may not see international decisions made at COP that will move us forward fundamentally, it can still provide a framework for many positive initiatives to arise.”
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