When COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev stepped up to the podium on Sunday morning at the closing session of the Baku Climate Summit, he had two speeches ready. According to sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, one speech was prepared in anticipation of a much-anticipated deal, while the other was prepared in case of a deadlock after the summit collapsed. It was seen as a contingency plan.

An official from the COP29 Presidency revealed that negotiations were tough until the last minute to secure the Baku breakthrough, but they were still preparing for various outcomes. The final speech was being crafted to address different possibilities.

Ultimately, without giving his detractors a chance to react, Babayev succeeded in pushing through a $300 billion funding plan to assist developing countries in handling the escalating costs of global warming over the next decade, earning praise for his efforts.

He lauded the agreement as a significant achievement and criticized skeptics, labeling them as “wrong,” along with many individuals targeted by the climate deal accused of being grossly inadequate.

The audience was already aware that Babayev was preparing for a mixed outcome at the divisive Baku summit, signaling that negotiations were unlikely to proceed smoothly.

Concerns about the imminent withdrawal of the United States from global climate cooperation, geopolitical tensions, and the surge of isolationist politics that have sidelined climate change in many nations’ priorities had lowered expectations for the deal.

Potential obstacles loomed large over Baku. The coming months will continue to cast a shadow over global efforts to address climate change as Brazil gears up to host a major conference next year in the Amazon rainforest city of Belem. The world will then embark on a multi-year plan for deeper emissions cuts and building climate resilience.

Trump Effect

One major factor clouding the negotiations in Baku was the impending return of Donald Trump as the President of the United States, the world’s largest economy, historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and a significant producer of oil and gas, who has been a climate change skeptic.

President Trump, due to take office again in January, had vowed to withdraw the US from the global Paris climate accord, repeating his stance from his previous term and dismissing climate change as a hoax.

Negotiators at the Baku conference noted that while the US delegation contributed to developing a climate finance agreement, the country was unable to play the high-profile leadership role seen in previous climate summits. Doubts persisted about the administration’s commitment to honoring the agreement.

“As far as the United States is concerned, the voters have spoken, and that’s where we stand. We are unsure of their intentions,” stated South Africa’s Environment Minister Dion George.

US officials attending COP29 tried to assure global partners that even if President Trump withdraws from the international process, market forces, federal subsidies, and state mandates will continue driving the deployment of renewable energy.

Furthermore, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East diverted global attention towards security and energy availability, compelling many governments to tighten their budgets, making it challenging to secure larger climate finance amounts, noted observers.

“Given the current political climate, maintaining climate finance at its current level is an uphill battle,” remarked Joe Thwaites, a senior adviser at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

The pledged $300 billion annually by 2035 would theoretically triple the previous commitments of rich countries to provide $100 billion by 2020. Rich countries’ reluctance to offer further funding and the pressure to reach agreements amidst political turmoil disappointed least developed countries and small island states left out of negotiations at the Baku conference.

At one point during the summit’s final stages, the negotiating bloc representing these nations staged a walkout in protest, leading to a delay in reaching an agreement.

Representatives from Marshall Islands and India voiced their dissatisfaction with the climate finance deal, highlighting the reluctance of developed countries to fulfill their responsibilities, setting the stage for challenges at COP30 in Brazil.

“This could prove contentious in Belém. Brazil must find a way to rebuild trust,” remarked Oscar Soria, head of the Common Initiative focused on global financial reform.