Likelihood of Catastrophic Asteroid Impact Rises Temporarily in 2025

Illustration of an asteroid passing near the moon

Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library

In 2025, the threat of a disastrous asteroid impact momentarily heightened when astronomers detected a building-sized asteroid on a collision course with Earth.

Known as 2024 YR4, this asteroid was initially identified by astronomers in late December 2024, with estimates placing its size between 40 and 90 meters. Any potential trajectory through our solar system would intersect a narrow zone that includes Earth, leading astronomers to initially assess a 1 in 83 probability of collision in 2032.

As they monitored the asteroid’s orbit more closely in early 2025, the likelihood of an impact was updated to a concerning 1 in 32 by February.

If it had impacted close to an urban area, the consequences would have been devastating, equivalent to several megatons of TNT. The asteroid was temporarily classified as a 3 on the Turin scale, where 0 means no threat and 10 signifies a global catastrophe. This raised alarms among several United Nations agencies, resulting in coordinated efforts for a global telescope campaign and discussions on the necessity of an asteroid deflection mission.

During this period, global space agencies convened regularly to share observations and enhance understanding of the asteroid. “2024 YR4 proved to be a significant learning experience for us,” stated Richard Moisle from the European Space Agency (ESA). “This served as crucial training to enhance our capabilities related to asteroid detection and understanding the overarching challenges.”

By February 20, astronomers had refined the trajectory of 2024 YR4, effectively removing Earth from the asteroid’s predicted path, and ESA subsequently reduced the collision risk to 1 in 625, or 0.16 percent. Weeks later, both NASA and ESA confirmed that there was no longer any risk of collision. “They are not considered a threat to our planet,” affirmed Moisle.

Nonetheless, astronomers still acknowledge a minor risk of a lunar impact, estimated at about 4% for 2032. “Should we hit the moon, it would provide a unique opportunity to observe the impact process from a safe distance,” commented Gareth Collins from Imperial College London.

Researchers are now assessing the potential ramifications of an asteroid impacting the moon, including the risk of debris cascading toward Earth. They are also exploring the feasibility of a deflection mission and strategizing on how to effectively dispatch a small satellite to an asteroid in an attempt to detonate it with a nuclear device. “We must tread carefully to ensure that a moon impact does not unintentionally lead to an Earth impact,” Rang Moisle.

The present 4 percent chance of a lunar collision is not sufficiently alarming to compel global space agencies to initiate a formal mission. This probability is unlikely to shift soon, as 2024 YR4 is currently obscured by the Sun and won’t be visible until 2028. However, due to its unique positioning in Earth’s orbit, there will be a rare opportunity to observe it with the James Webb Space Telescope in February 2026. Moisle indicated that since planning an asteroid mission can take years, data from these observations will represent the last realistic chance to determine whether a mission to visit or deflect the asteroid is warranted.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Elon Musk and X Settle Temporarily with Relaxed Twitter Employee

Elon Musk and his social media platform X reached a provisional agreement with a former Twitter employee on Wednesday, concluding years of legal disputes regarding retirement benefits. The ex-staff member was pursuing $500 million in a proposed class action lawsuit against the billionaire.

A court filing issued on Wednesday indicated that the involved parties have in principle come to a settlement agreement and requested a postponement of the case while they finalize the terms. The details of the interim agreement remain undisclosed, leaving it uncertain what amount of compensation the former employee might receive.

Former Twitter employees, led by Courtney McMillian and Ronald Cooper, contended that the firm inadequately paid retirement benefits to thousands of workers following significant layoffs. After Musk took over Twitter in 2022, he eliminated over 6,000 positions as part of a workforce overhaul, notably impacting nearly all divisions, including content moderation and communications. The layoffs triggered several ongoing lawsuits from both staff and executives, highlighting Musk’s vision of “government efficiency” during the government’s recent upheaval.

The lawsuit asserts that according to the 2019 retirement plan, employees were entitled to at least two months’ salary and additional compensation based on their tenure. However, Musk allegedly failed to adhere to the contract, at times leaving employees without any compensation.

The interim settlement marks a shift from last year when a US district judge dismissed McMillian’s case, favoring Musk. In July, Judge Trina Thompson ruled that the Federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) did not cover the former employee’s claims, necessitating an appeal to a higher court.

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Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, which was later rebranded to X, continues to be a contentious business venture. Twitter executives, including former CEO Parag Agrawal, are also involved in lawsuits against Musk concerning allegations of his failure to pay $128 million in severance.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Scalp tattoos can temporarily record brain activity

Tattoos printed on a person’s scalp can detect electrical activity in the brain and transmit the signals to a recording device.

Lu Nanshu

Printing temporary tattoos on people’s heads could make it easier to analyze their brain waves.

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method of measuring electrical activity in the brain through electrodes placed on the scalp. It can be used to test patients for neurological conditions such as epilepsy, tumors, and damage from stroke or head trauma.

Because human skulls vary in size and shape, technicians must spend considerable time measuring and marking the scalp to obtain accurate values. The gel helps the electrodes detect brain signals, but when it dries it stops working. The cables that connect to the electrodes can also cause discomfort and interfere with delicate electrical signals.

Lu Nanshu A team of researchers at the University of Texas at Austin hopes to get around this problem by printing temporary tattoos on test subjects’ scalps. Tattoo ink is made of two polymers called poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) and polystyrene sulfonic acid (PSS). It has excellent conductivity and durability, and does not irritate the skin.

A computer program creates a personalized tattoo design based on a 3D scan of your scalp, and a printer controlled by a robotic arm applies ink directly to your scalp. The ink comes in two different formulations, one for the electrodes that receive brain signals and one for the connection that goes to the back of the neck. From there, physical wires transmit the signal to small devices that record the data.

“Our technology embodies the first hair-compatible temporary electronic tattoo that enables high-quality brain monitoring,” says Lu.

This tattoo has been found to work well on bald heads and people with buzz-cut hairstyles. “This method has not yet been extensively tested on long, thick, curly hair, but it could be possible in the future by changing the nozzle design or incorporating robotic fingers into the hair parting. “It could be possible,” she says. The researchers say it is also possible to make the process completely wireless by embedding a data transmitter into the tattoo.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Food colorings can temporarily make skin and muscle see-through in living animals

The researchers Stanford University Aqueous solutions of tartrazine, a common food coloring approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, have been shown to have the effect of reversibly transparentizing the skin, muscle, and connective tissue of live rodents.

Diagram of skin tissue cleared by saturating it with FD&C Yellow 5, including the path of photons reflecting off unstained tissue. Image courtesy of Keyi 'Onyx' Li / National Science Foundation.

“We combined a yellow dye, a molecule that absorbs most light, especially blue and ultraviolet light, with skin, a scattering medium; these two individually block most light from passing through,” said study lead author Dr. Zhihao Ou, who conducted the research with colleagues during his postdoctoral research at Stanford University before joining the University of Texas at Dallas in August 2024.

“But when we combined them, we were able to achieve skin transparency in mice.”

To master this new technique, Dr. Ou and his colleagues developed a way to predict how light would interact with stained biological tissue.

These predictions required a deep understanding not only of light scattering, but also of the process of refraction, how light changes speed and bends as it passes from one material to another.

Scattering is why we can't see through the body: fats, fluids within cells, proteins, and other substances all have different refractive indices, properties that determine how much incoming light waves bend.

In most tissues, these materials are so densely packed that differences in refractive index cause light to scatter as it passes through them, resulting in what our eyes perceive as opaque, colored biological material.

The researchers realized that if they wanted to make biological materials transparent, they had to find a way to match the different refractive indices so that light could pass through unimpeded.

Drawing on fundamental insights from optics, the researchers realized that the dyes that are most effective at absorbing light are also highly effective at directing light evenly through a wide range of refractive indices.

One dye that scientists predicted would be particularly effective was Tartrazinecommonly known as FD&C Yellow 5, is a food coloring.

As it turns out, they were right: when dissolved in water and absorbed into tissue, the tartrazine molecule becomes perfectly structured to match the refractive index, preventing light scattering and resulting in transparency.

The authors first tested their predictions on thin slices of chicken breast.

As the concentration of tartrazine increased, the refractive index of the fluid inside the muscle cells increased, matching the refractive index of muscle proteins, causing the sections to become transparent.

Next, the researchers gently applied the temporary tartrazine solution to the mice.

First, the researchers applied a solution to the scalp, making the skin transparent to reveal the blood vessels crisscrossing the brain.

The researchers then applied the solution to the abdomen, where it disappeared within minutes and demonstrated intestinal contractions and movement due to heartbeat and breathing.

This technique allows for the resolution of micron-scale features and improved microscopy.

Once the dye was washed off, the tissue quickly returned to its normal opacity.

Tartrazine appears to have no long-term effects and excess is excreted within 48 hours.

“It's important that the dye is biocompatible and safe for living organisms,” Dr. Ou said.

“Plus, it's very cheap and efficient. You don't need that much of it to work.”

The team has yet to test the process on humans, whose skin is about 10 times thicker than that of mice.

“At this point, it's unclear how much dye or the delivery method is needed to penetrate the entire skin,” Dr. Ou said.

“In human medicine, we now have ultrasound that can see much deeper into the body.”

“Many medical diagnostic platforms are prohibitively expensive and inaccessible to a wide range of users, but this shouldn't be the case for a platform based on our technology.”

of study Published in this week's journal Science.

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Wu Zhihao others2024. Achieving optical transparency in living animals using absorbing molecules. Science 385 (6713); doi: 10.1126/science.adm6869

This article is an edited version of an original release from the National Science Foundation and the University of Texas at Dallas.

Source: www.sci.news