Balancing Faith and Fear: Speculation Surrounds the $3 Trillion Global Data Center Surge

Global investments in artificial intelligence are yielding remarkable figures, with approximately $3 trillion (£2.3 trillion) allocated to data centers.

These immense facilities serve as the backbone for AI applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Veo 3, driving the training and functioning of technologies that have attracted billions from investors.

Although there are worries that the AI boom might lead to a bubble poised to burst, indicators of such a downturn are currently absent. Recently, Nvidia, a Silicon Valley AI chip manufacturer, became the first company to reach a valuation of $5 trillion, while Microsoft and Apple each hit a $4 trillion valuation for the first time, marking a historic moment. OpenAI’s restructuring now appraises it at $500 billion, with Microsoft’s investment exceeding $100 billion. Projections suggest a potential $1 trillion surge as early as next year.

Moreover, Google’s parent company Alphabet announced $100 billion in revenue for a single quarter, driven by an increasing demand for AI infrastructure. Apple and Amazon also recently reported robust results.

Trust in AI extends beyond the financial sector; local communities housing the AI infrastructure are equally invested.

In the 19th century, the demand for coal and steel determined Newport’s trajectory. Today, Welsh towns are looking forward to a fresh era of growth generated by the latest global economic transformation.

At the site of a former radiator factory on the outskirts of Newport, Microsoft is constructing a data center to cater to the tech industry’s increasing demand for AI.

Microsoft is constructing a data center at Imperial Park near Newport, Wales. Photo: Dimitris Regakis/Athena Pictures

While standing on the concrete floor where thousands of buzzing servers will soon be installed, Dimitri Batrouni, the Labour leader of Newport City Council, remarked that the Imperial Park data center represents an opportunity to delve into the economy of the future.

“In a city like mine, what should we do? Should we dwell on the past in hopes of reviving the steel industry and bringing back 10,000 jobs? That’s not feasible. Or should we embrace the future?” he stated.

Yet, despite the current optimistic outlook regarding AI, uncertainties linger concerning the sustainability of spending in the tech sector.

The top four players in the AI industry (Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft) are ramping up their AI spending. Over the upcoming two years, they are expected to invest more than $750 billion in AI-related capital expenditures, covering not just data centers and staff, but also the chips and servers they contain.

This expenditure is highlighted by the American investment firm Manning & Napier, which describes it as “nothing too remarkable.” The Newport facility alone could demand hundreds of millions of dollars. Recently, Equinix, based in California, announced intentions to invest £4 billion in a central hub in Hertfordshire.

Joe Tsai, chairman of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, cautioned in March that the data center market was beginning to exhibit signs of oversupply. “We’re starting to observe the early stages of a potential bubble,” he commented, referencing projects that finance constructions without securing commitments from prospective clients.

There are already 11,000 data centers globally, representing a 500% increase over the past two decades, and more are on the horizon. The means of funding this expansion raises concerns.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that worldwide spending on data centers will approach $3 trillion by 2028, with $1.4 trillion of that anticipated from cash flow generated by large US tech firms known as “hyperscalers.”

Consequently, $1.5 trillion will need to be sourced from alternative means, such as private credit, which has been increasingly scrutinized by institutions like the Bank of England. Morgan Stanley estimates that private credit could cover more than half of the funding shortfall. Meta Inc. utilized private credit markets to raise $29 billion for an expansion of a data center in Louisiana.

Gil Luria, the head of technology research at DA Davidson, described investments in hyperscalers as a “healthy” aspect of the current boom, while labeling the remainder as “speculative assets devoid of customers.”

He noted that the debt being utilized could lead to repercussions extending beyond the tech sector if the situation deteriorates.

“Providers of this debt are so eager to invest in AI that they may not have adequately assessed the risks associated with a new and unproven category reliant on assets that depreciate quickly,” he indicated.

“We are in the initial phase of this influx of debt capital, but if it escalates to hundreds of billions of dollars, it could ultimately present structural risks to the global economy.”

Hedge fund founder Harris Kupperman noted in an August blog that data centers: depreciate at twice the rate of revenue generation.

The $500 billion Stargate project in Abilene, Texas, involves a collaboration between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle. Photo: Daniel Cole/Reuters

Supporting this expenditure are heightened revenue forecasts from Morgan Stanley, which estimates that income generated from AI innovations such as chatbots, AI agents, and image generators could grow to $1 trillion by 2028 from $45 billion last year. To substantiate these revenue projections, tech firms are counting on enterprises, the public sector, and individual users to generate sufficient demand for AI and fund it.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a landmark product of the AI wave, currently boasts 800 million weekly active users. This statistic is a boon for optimists. However, concerns have arisen regarding user acquisition. For instance, investor confidence in the AI surge took a hit in August when the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a study indicating that 95% of organizations reported zero return on investment from generative AI projects.

According to the Uptime Institute, which inspects and evaluates data centers, many projects go unconstructed, suggesting that some are part of a hype cycle and fail to materialize.

“It is crucial to understand that much of this is speculative,” stated Andy Lawrence, the Uptime Institute’s executive director of research. “Frequently, many data centers announced with great excitement are either never built or are only partially constructed and developed progressively over a ten-year span.”

He further added that numerous data centers unveiled as part of this multitrillion-dollar initiative “will be specifically designed for or primarily intended to support AI workloads.”

Microsoft has pointed out that its Newport data center will not solely serve AI. Data centers form the core for AI systems like ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot but also cater to everyday IT tasks many take for granted (like managing email traffic, storing company files, and supporting Zoom calls) as providers of “cloud” services, where companies lease servers rather than purchasing them outright.

“The infrastructure has multiple applications, making it highly versatile,” explained Alistair Speirs, general manager of Microsoft’s cloud operations.

However, various large-scale projects are completely committing to AI. The US Stargate initiative is a $500 billion partnership among OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, with plans to establish a network of AI data centers throughout the U.S. A British counterpart will also be set up in North Tyneside, in the northeast of England. Microsoft is constructing the most powerful AI data center in Fairview, Wisconsin, and is backing a dedicated AI site in Laughton, Essex, while Elon Musk’s xAI is developing a colossal project in Memphis, Tennessee.


Construction of an estimated 10GW of new data center capacity worldwide—equivalent to around a third of the UK’s electricity demand—is expected to commence this year, as reported by the property group JLL. However, this represents total maximum capacity, as data centers generally operate around 60% of their capacity.

JLL projects another 7GW will be completed this year.

The growth rate is swift, with current global data center capacity standing at 59GW, and Goldman Sachs forecasting capacity will double by the end of 2030. This expansion will elevate the costs related to the infrastructure, necessitating $720 billion in grid investments to satisfy that energy demand, according to Goldman.

Mike O’Connell, a construction safety specialist from Newport, has returned as a consultant at the Newport facility. With a career spanning oil rigs, offshore wind farms, and data centers globally, he returned to his hometown, now a tech hub filled with data centers and semiconductor firms.

“My aim is to remain within my local community,” he stated. Mr. O’Connell’s teenage grandson is embarking on his career at the Newport site as an electrical apprentice. There is optimism that such a data center will offer generational employment opportunities for the area.

Investors and tech giants are committing trillions of dollars in investments with hopes for long-term returns.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Balancing Immune Health and Chronic Inflammation: A Delicate Trade-off

The immune system may be even more intricate than we previously realized

Corona Borealis Studio/Shutterstock

Having an adequately functioning immune system for extended lifespans might come with the trade-off of chronic inflammation. Some immune cells are programmed to undergo inflammatory deaths to protect against infections, but this can also happen randomly when no pathogens are present.

Our innate immune system comprises cell groups that react swiftly to invasive pathogens such as viruses and bacteria. These cells typically detect microorganisms when they invade or infect them.

“With minimal information such as molecules of viral DNA, immune cells can swiftly decide on a course of action, often opting for self-destruction,” says Randal Halfman from the University of Kansas Cancer Center.

This type of cell death, known as pyroptosis, is triggered by a double death domain protein. These proteins usually float within innate immune cells, but upon encountering pathogens, they assemble into crystal-like structures. This action activates another protein that kills the cells by creating holes, leading to ruptures and releasing inflammatory signals that assist the immune system in pathogen clearance.

To delve deeper into this process, Halfman and his team carried out various laboratory experiments investigating human death-fold domain proteins in yeast cells. This process allowed them to identify five types of these proteins with chemical characteristics that predispose them to naturally form crystal-like structures in the absence of pathogens. They then analyzed existing data to assess the levels of these proteins in uninfected human immune cells.

From this analysis, we determined that certain innate immune cells, such as macrophages that engulf and eliminate pathogens, possess five times more death-fold domain proteins at concentrations sufficient to spontaneously assemble and trigger cell death. “At high enough concentrates, these particles are more likely to randomly conform into crystal structures during the cell’s lifespan,” Halfman explains.

Such phenomena can accumulate with age, contributing to chronic inflammation associated with various conditions, including cancer and Alzheimer’s disease, according to Halfman. “It seems we’ve evolved this way to fend off infections, but it may also lead to chronic inflammation,” he asserts.

This pathway provides protection against infections from birth and enhances our likelihood of aging, though it might also predispose us to inflammation-related diseases later in life, Halfman notes. “If these persistent irritations continue over time, the resulting inflammatory damage can accumulate,” he elaborates. Andy Clark from the University of Birmingham, UK, agrees.

The development of medications that prevent spontaneous cell death could potentially alleviate chronic inflammation related to aging, Halfman suggests. However, Clark cautions that this might render individuals more vulnerable to infections.

topic:

  • Immune system/
  • inflammation

Source: www.newscientist.com

A killer whale was seen balancing a salmon on its head

overview

  • An orca was spotted balancing a salmon on its head in coastal waters off Washington state.
  • It's not clear what this behavior means, but killer whales have been previously observed performing the same behavior in the 1980s.
  • Southern killer whales are critically endangered and may be on their way to extinction.

Recently, a fascinating sight was witnessed off the coast of Washington state where an orca was seen balancing a salmon on its head, surprising both scientists and killer whale enthusiasts.

This particular endangered Southern killer whale, known as J27 or Blackberry, was spotted wearing a hat made of salmon near Point No Point in late October. According to Orca Network, a non-profit organization dedicated to species conservation.

This behavior of carrying salmon on their heads was previously observed in killer whales in the late 1980s, as mentioned by Deborah Giles, director of scientific research at Wild Orca. However, the significance of this behavior remains unclear.

Giles, who spends a significant amount of time studying orcas, witnessed another instance of this behavior recently, suggesting that it might be a common occurrence among southern killer whales.

The behavior of balancing a salmon on their heads could be attributed to various reasons such as sharing food with other pod members or using it as part of their social interactions. Nevertheless, this behavior indicates that the whales are well-fed and can engage in playful activities.

Despite conservation efforts, Southern killer whales are facing numerous threats that have contributed to their critically endangered status. The decline in prey availability, pollution, and disturbance from human activities are some of the key challenges faced by these whales.

Efforts are being made to protect and recover the Southern killer whale population, but more needs to be done to ensure their survival in the long run.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls for consideration of balancing the effects of AI with profit and environmental taxes

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that governments dealing with economic challenges brought about by artificial intelligence (AI) should look into implementing fiscal policies such as taxes on excessive profits or environmental taxes to offset the carbon emissions linked to AI.

The IMF highlights generative AI, which enables computer systems like ChatGPT to create human-like text, voice, and images from basic prompts, as a technology advancing rapidly and spreading at a swift pace compared to past innovations like the steam engine.

To address the impact on jobs due to AI, the IMF proposes policies like a carbon tax considering the environmental effects of operating AI servers. The IMF emphasizes the importance of taxing carbon emissions from AI servers to incorporate environmental costs into the technology’s price.


The IMF report released on Monday highlights the significance of taxing carbon emissions associated with AI servers due to their high energy consumption and the potential to impact data centers’ electricity use. Data centers, servers, and networks currently contribute up to 1.5% of global emissions, according to a recent report.

In addition, the report cautions that introducing AI could reduce wages, widen inequality, and empower tech giants to strengthen their market dominance and financial gains. It recommends higher taxes on capital income, including corporate taxes and personal income on dividends, interest, and capital gains, to address these challenges.

Furthermore, the report stresses the need for governments to prepare for the impact of AI on various job sectors, both white-collar and blue-collar, and suggests measures like extending unemployment insurance, targeted Social Security payments, and tailored education and training to equip workers with necessary skills.

To overhaul the tax system and introduce new taxes reflecting real-time market values, the IMF recommends leveraging AI’s analytical capabilities. While cautioning against universal basic income due to its high cost, the IMF suggests considering it if AI disrupts jobs significantly in the future.

Ella Dabra Norris, deputy director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and co-author of the report, encourages countries to explore the design and implementation of systems like UBI if AI disruption intensifies.

Source: www.theguardian.com

‘In New York, the battle to resist Airbnb regulation: Balancing love for your dog with dealing with a rude roommate’

UUntil recently, visitors to New York essentially had two options. A hotel room or a short-term rental platform like Airbnb. But in September 2023, the city began enforcing a 2022 law that prohibits people from renting a home for less than 30 days (unless the host stays in the home with a guest).

Currently, hotel rooms are the only legitimate option for people visiting the city, but they are out of reach for many. Most Times Square hotels don’t have rooms for less than $300 a night. Searches on Thursday, May 2nd found Muse for $356, Hampton Inn for $323, and Hard Rock for $459 (but due to dynamic pricing, these can change regularly). They become more expensive. Hotel prices rose at twice the rate of inflation from the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2023, said Jan Freitag, an analyst at real estate data firm Coster Group.

Many visitors and New Yorkers are turning to the underground rental market, where Facebook groups, Craigslist posts, Instagram listings, and reviews have become the go-to for finding short-term rentals in the five boroughs.

If you have friends in New York, you’ve probably seen their Instagram stories. “Hello everyone! I’m renting out my room in my 5-bed apartment to him again for 4 days over Easter! I have to deal with a dog and a rude roommate! DM me if you’re interested!”

Other travelers headed to New Jersey, making the kaleidoscopic city across the Hudson the nation’s fastest-growing Airbnb demand market, according to analytics site AirDNA. Other companies are snapping up hotels, which are expected to become even more expensiven the coming years. For many tourists, a good answer to the so-called Airbnb ban has not yet been found.

Yoya Busquets, 56, had been considering an Airbnb in New Jersey, but she really wants to stay there when she visits from Barcelona with her husband and two teenage daughters in early September. . She took a quick peek at her Facebook, where she chatted on Messenger with some people advertising short-term rentals. The last time she visited New York was in 2012, when she stayed at an Airbnb in Brooklyn, and she hopes to have a similar experience. She might get lucky.

“I’ve been in contact with a girl who has a room available for a week, and it’s listed on Airbnb as in New Jersey, but when I contacted her, she said it was in Brooklyn,” she said.

The apartment happened to be close to the area she had previously stayed in and was within her $160 per night budget. Considering the cost of a hotel and the space her daughters needed to relax after a busy day, it was the best option she found. But that setup is probably in violation of the new law, which is why the apartment is listed in Jersey.

Williamsburg Bridge in Brooklyn. For a hotel, “you have to pay about $400 a night, and we don’t have that kind of money,” said one New Yorker who tried to accommodate his parents. Photo: Ryan DeBerardinis/Alamy

AirDNA, which tracks data from short-term rental sites like Airbnb and Vrbo, says listings for stays of less than 30 days have declined by 83% since August 2023, when the regulations began taking effect. At one time in New York City he had 22,200 short-term properties available. That number currently stands at just 3,700, according to AirDNA.

Tesin Parra, 24, was looking for a job that would allow her to continue living in the United States after completing her thesis and classes, while also looking for a place for her family to stay as she graduates from New York University in May. Program for Journalism.

“This is their first time in New York City, so I want them to have a good experience,” Para, who is originally from India, said of her parents and grandmother. “She wanted to do an Airbnb so she could also cook,” she said.So she was disappointed when she learned that short-term rentals weren’t really an option anymore.

Parra wants a place with space for her family to gather. As a sign of her gratitude and respect, she wants to cover the cost of her family’s accommodation and has budgeted around $200 (£160) per night for a week-long stay.

“I’m kind of stuck as to what to do,” Parra said. “Probably a hotel, but I’d have to pay about $400 a night, and I don’t have that kind of money.”

Now, with the double stress of finishing school and facing hotel bills she can’t afford, she’s at a crossroads. She either chooses a hotel, has her parents pay for it, or rents something short-term, which is technically impossible in New York. Legal?

Without the accountability and protection that platforms like Airbnb offer, avoiding scams when searching for short-term rentals has become the norm. So Pala skipped scanning his Craigslist altogether. Currently, she is considering booking an Airbnb in New Jersey, but she worries that the local PATH train traffic will be an inconvenience for her grandmother.

This regulation was passed with the goal of keeping rent prices in check for New Yorkers by putting apartment inventory back on the market, but it is often important for New York renters and homeowners who lived in apartments while still living in apartments. It also cut off a major source of income. Where they were when they were out of town. Some New Yorkers are still looking for ways to bring in funds.

Kathleen, whose last name is withheld for privacy reasons, only recently began renting an East Village apartment on the underground rental market. The 29-year-old travels frequently for her personal finance job and to visit her family in North Carolina. According to her, she’s out of town for about four months a year, and of course, she still has to pay $2,600 a month in rent while she’s away. To make up for some of her lost money, she started connecting with undocumented people through Facebook groups.

In 2015, Airbnb protesters gathered at New York City Hall. Photo: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

“I thoroughly vetted a lot of people,” she said, voicing concerns about how her space would be treated given the lack of protection that short-term rental platforms offer hosts. I made it. She has two guests: her. One is a weekend visitor, the other stays at her apartment for three weeks in the summer. They pay her $50 a night.

“I always have a side hustle,” she said. “If I can make extra money, why not make extra money? I live in a great place. I thought it would be a nice, cute place.”

This is the spot where a visitor like Juan José Tejada could become a champion. Tejada, a wellness influencer from Bogotá, Colombia, is visiting New York for nine days in July with his best friend. He began his location search by looking at hotels, but he soon realized they were too expensive.

“I’m 25 years old. I’m traveling with my best friend. And, you know, we don’t have that much of a budget,” he said. At the suggestion of a cousin who lives in the city, Tejada used Facebook to search for short-term rental properties. What he discovered was four times his budget of $100 to $200 per night. But that wasn’t the only problem.

“When I was looking for short-term rental properties, the payment situation was a little tough,” Tejada said. Not in Colombia. “

Tejada and her friend ended up booking a hostel called Hi New York City on the Upper West Side, which cost about $55 a night for a bunk room with a shared bathroom. was. Tejada said she considered Airbnb, which has an on-site host, but couldn’t find a suitable option. It’s not the apartment he dreamed of breezed in and out of as if he were a local, but it’s good enough.

People are coming up with their own solutions for short stays. On Instagram, there are accounts like Book That Sublet NYC, where over 4,000 followers tune in to frequently posted daily and weekly sublets, as well as endless “sublets.”Book my apartment!“, or an apartment exchange callout shared on Instagram Stories. And there are long-standing apartment exchange sites like HomeExchange and HomeLink that offer visitors another way to get their foot in the door of a city apartment.

Supporters of the new regulations thought that limiting short-term rentals would bring long-term rentals back onto the market and perhaps help lower rents in the notoriously expensive city. Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, said after nearly seven months, there was still no widespread impact.

Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, said that although a small number of apartments have returned to the rental market since the law was changed, mortgage rates remain high and mortgage rates are declining. He explained that this is because it has been gradually increasing since its inception. In 2017, prospective buyers refrained from making purchases for the time being, and rents rose.

Parra, a New York University student, doesn’t think the regulations are the most effective way to address New York’s housing crisis. “I don’t understand how this regulation makes sense. Not in terms of relieving the burden of the number of Airbnbs, but considering that New York City is an immigrant city. ‘Is it fair?’ she said.

But Busquets, who will be visiting in September, has seen firsthand the impact of tourism and short-term rentals on the world-renowned destination.

“I come from a city where the Airbnb craziness is actually displacing local residents and people who have lived there for years,” she said. “The owners wanted to keep people who were there just for short-term rentals because it was more profitable.”

Busquets said Airbnb made Barcelona uninhabitable and she eventually left for the suburbs herself. She added: “It’s changed. It’s not the same city it was 10, 15 years ago.”

Source: www.theguardian.com

Understanding the Law of X: A Guide for Cloud Leaders on Balancing Growth and Profits

As an interest rate Returning to historical norms, the world has returned its focus to cost of capital and free cash flow generation. In order for companies to adhere to traditional heuristics like the Rule of 40 (i.e., the idea that the sum of revenue growth and profit margin must equal 40% or more, a metric that Bessemer helped popularize) We are working hard. Executives at both private and public cloud companies agree that free cash flow (FCF) margins are just as important (if not more important) than growth, and that the trade-off is he says 1:1. I often think about it. Many finance executives love the “Rule of 40” for its clarity, but placing equal emphasis on growth and profitability in late-stage businesses is flawed and leads to bad business decisions. I am.

our view

For companies with adequate FCF margins, growth must remain a top priority. There are good reasons to emphasize efficiency, but Traditional Rule of 40 Mathematics Is Completely Wrong When a company approaches its break-even point and has positive free cash flow,

The world has hyper-rotated to an FCF margin mindset instead of a growth mindset, which is counter to efficient business growth. Long-term models show that growth should be valued at least two to three times more than his FCF margin, even in tight markets.

Equivalent emphasis on growth and profitability in late-stage businesses is flawed and leads to bad business decisions.

why?

An increase in margin has a linear effect on value, but an increase in growth rate can have a compound effect on value. We provide detailed calculations below, but when we backtest the relative importance of growth and FCF margins, the correlation of public market valuations confirms it. Actual ratios vary widely in the short term (ranging from about 2x to about 9x over the past few years), but over the long term they are typically 2x to 3x growth value over profitability. It comes down to proportions.

Even the most conservative financial planner recommends that you can safely use a growth rate of up to 2x for late-stage private company profitability. Publicly traded companies with a low cost of capital can use multiples of up to 2-3x (as long as growth is efficient).

Image credits: Bessemer Venture Partners

Source: techcrunch.com