By 12:30 PM on Wednesday, systems will be active, trading algorithms set, and billions in buy and sell orders prepared for Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement.
For the first time, a custom artificial intelligence tool will be tuned in to a Prime Minister’s speech at Deutsche Bank’s London trading floor. It will transcribe her address, detect shifts in tone, and notify you when figures fall short of expectations.
“Once the information is available, we can analyze it in real time,” explained Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at the bank. The natural language model has been trained on Reeves’ recent public appearances, including media interviews, speeches at conferences, the spring Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, and last year’s budget, all designed to give banks a competitive edge in this highly anticipated budget.
“As we approach November 26th, there are heightened expectations regarding the city’s budget,” Raja stated.
We are now in the era of bond market budgets, following a decade of soaring government borrowing. With rising debt interest costs and the lingering effects of Brexit and Liz Truss’ mini-budget, market reactions will be critical.
Mr. Reeves has clashed with major players in Britain’s £2.7 trillion debt market for months, engaging with top government officials from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in an effort to smooth over a multi-billion pound tax and spending plan.
What comprises the market? Think of it as the embodiment of electronic trading executed in systems around the globe, extensively analyzed by commentators leading up to the budget. There is concern that market turmoil could trigger stock declines and elevate borrowing costs for governments, mortgage holders, and businesses, potentially leading to political upheaval for Mr. Reeves and Keir Starmer.
Mr. Reeves experienced the bond market’s influence firsthand earlier this month when government borrowing costs surged after announcements that he scrapped income tax hikes, breaking his manifesto commitment.
The British government bond market, known as gilts, isn’t governed by a single entity but rather by a group of institutions and individuals working behind trading desks in the City, Canary Wharf, and other financial hubs.
At Phoenix Group’s trading room, a FTSE 100 insurance firm by London’s Old Bailey, Summer Refai gets ready behind a Bloomberg terminal. Budget day is significant as they manage £300 billion in assets, which includes billions of pounds in gold backing pensions, savings, and life insurance for 12 million clients.
“You might recall the famous quote from Bill Clinton’s advisor,” the firm’s head of macro markets commented. (Former strategist James Carville remarked in 1993 that a “bond market” would wield more power than any president or pope.)
“It really intimidates folks. No force makes governments move faster than the bond market,” he noted.
“You can see how the market dynamics certainly have an effect.”
The influence of bond traders has intensified in recent years as government debt and borrowing costs have surged globally, partly due to rising inflation and sluggish economic growth. The UK faces distinct challenges.
Following multiple economic shocks and consecutive budget deficits, Britain has amassed over £2.7 trillion in debt, nearly 100% of its national income. Inflation remains among the highest in the G7, and ongoing speculation regarding the government’s financial position is troubling.
Simultaneously, the Bank of England is offloading government bonds from its quantitative easing program, releasing vast amounts of gilts into the commercial market to support government borrowing.
Historically, pension funds managed most of the debt, but their demand has been dwindling due to the decline of defined benefit and final salary plans. Foreign investors have increasingly entered the market, now accounting for about a third of it.
The OBR has cautioned that this could render the UK more susceptible. Foreign investors could easily opt to invest elsewhere. For Reeves, preserving the bond market’s stability will be a top priority.
Amidst this context, the UK’s annual debt interest expenses have soared to £100 billion, about £1 for every £10 spent by the Treasury. This added financial pressure is exacerbated by the mounting costs of refurbishing damaged public services and catering to an aging population.
The yield (real interest rate) on 10-year bonds has reached 4.5%, the highest among G7 nations and nearly at a three-decade peak since 1998.
Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Liberum, mentioned that part of Reeves’ strategy involves reducing yields to alleviate this interest overhead. Bringing the UK back to a mid-ranking position could translate to billions in savings annually.
“Comparing the UK to the G7 is akin to determining who is the most inebriated at a party. But that’s a serious embarrassment regarding fiscal disparity. That’s a vital opportunity.”
Lower interest rates could yield “muted returns,” he suggests. This contrasts with the “stupid premium” witnessed during the Truss government. “By avoiding self-inflicted harm, we could see a market rebound.”
To achieve this, Reeves will need to bridge a possible £20 billion budget gap while addressing inflation. Raising taxes and cutting spending could intensify challenges, especially without stalling economic progress or violating Labor’s manifesto pledges.
The amount of debt investors will need to absorb will be a pivotal moment in the budget. The city anticipates that Mr. Reeves will have to rebuild considerable leeway, contrary to fiscal regulations. This would cap deficits and consequently reduce future gilt issuances.
“We’re closely monitoring the possibility of new budget rules being announced. That’s our focal point,” remarked Moeen Islam, head of UK rates strategy at Barclays.
In the spring, Reeves had set aside £9.9 billion as a cushion. However, this reserve is likely to be impacted by rising borrowing costs, a reversal in welfare policies, and downward adjustments to the OBR’s productivity forecasts.
Investors are hoping for a figure exceeding £20 billion, he adds. “That would be incredibly optimistic.”
However, a political approach focused on satisfying city investors may not be a comfortable route for Labor, especially when many are urging Mr. Reeves to ensure welfare spending does not rise.
Geoff Tilley, senior economist at the Labor Congress, stated that the city backed the Conservative Party’s austerity measures during the 2010s. “Rather than mending public debt, it has harmed it.”
“Our perspective is that markets are not inherently rational, but they do appreciate growth, and there’s evidence they respond favorably to policies that steer the economy in a positive direction.”
Investors had expected a manifesto-breaking increase in income tax. Implementing this would be the simplest route to generate billions for the Treasury, rather than relying on a mix of smaller, harder-to-execute measures.
“We underestimated the complexity of such a decision, and how high the bar would be. [a breach of manifesto] This decision lies with the prime minister, any prime minister,” remarked Islam.
Curiously, this could temper reactions on Wednesday, as numerous investors fear Reeves may be ousted from No. 11. “The market has recognized that such decisions can often be more intricate and nuanced than originally perceived.”
On Panmure Liberum’s trading floor, Marco Varani anticipates turbulent trading conditions.
“In this industry, what you’re truly after is movement and volatility. It generates more business. Days like Brexit and the onset of Covid were peaks of chaos. It was absolute madness.”
Once Reeves’ speech appears on Bloomberg, retail trading leaders expect an immediate impact. “You’ll see the gold market react, becoming a bit unsettled. Expect considerable volatility.”
During her address, he predicts that gold fluctuations, currency shifts, and movements in UK-listed company stocks will primarily be influenced by “fast money” (the City’s term for hedge funds).
Their involvement in the gold market has doubled from 15% of transactions in 2018 to roughly 30%, according to the Bank of England. Many are speculating with debt from a limited number of companies.
However, a clear judgment may unfold over several days. A crucial factor will be Threadneedle Street’s response regarding its scheduled rate cut on December 18 in the following weeks, as well as the UK’s growth trajectory and global circumstances.
Anthony O’Brien, head of market strategy at Phoenix Group, emphasized, “The market’s initial reaction should never be taken as definitive. It’s typically just individuals caught off guard, and it may require several days for clarity on the situation.”
“In the end, the economy dictates the valuation of national debt. Focusing on reducing inflation is vital. We must eliminate this uncertainty.”
Source: www.theguardian.com
