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Is the AI Boom Beginning to Decelerate? | Technology

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AI’s Abrupt Cooling Period

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As you cruise down the 280 highway in San Francisco, it may seem like AI is omnipresent. Billboards are filled with AI-related advertisements. “We’ve automated 2,412 BDRs.” “Is all that AI and ROI really there?” “Affordable on-demand GPU clusters.” It’s tough to decipher industry jargon while speeding by.

These billboards symbolize the tech sector’s mass shift toward AI. Executives are rapidly rebranding their companies as AI-focused. In California’s tech epicenter, just as every business turned high-tech in the 2010s, they are now redefining themselves as AI enterprises.

Yet beneath the dazzling promotions of AI capabilities, troubling signs are emerging. Prominent AI advocates like OpenAI’s Sam Altman caution that investors are misjudging AI’s potential returns. “Are we in a phase where investors are overly enthusiastic about AI?” Altman remarked during a private dinner with a journalist. “In my view, yes.“

Altman’s words align with OpenAI’s acknowledgment of struggles in launching its latest ChatGPT model, which he promised would be a substantial upgrade over the existing GPT 4.5 version.

Of course, Altman’s comments might be aimed at dissuading investors from financing rivals. But other indicators have emerged. A recent MIT study found that 95% of generative AI projects reported little to no revenue growth. Major tech stocks incorporating AI have suffered as well: Palantir’s shares dropped by 9%, Oracle’s by 5.8%, Nvidia’s by 3.5%, and Arm’s by over 5%. A slump in tech stock support from other sectors contributed to this downturn.

Cracks are starting to show beneath the dazzling AI promotion.

Moreover, Meta has reportedly invested billions in securing top AI talent but has announced an AI hiring freeze. Last week, AI executive Alexandr Wang stated on X that Meta is investing in its Superintelligence Labs, asserting, “The reports are grossly inaccurate.”

This abrupt cooling of AI interest comes just as many companies announced sizable investments in building AI capabilities while reporting less-than-stellar revenue. Altman noted during that same dinner that he aims to invest “trillions” in data center expansion in the near future, according to The Verge.

The current wave of trepidation surrounding AI might signal a necessary market correction rather than an outright bust of the AI hype bubble. Even Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, cautions against the notion that achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) is imminent or that AI will eventually surpass human intelligence.

“The speed at which AGI can be reached is uncertain,” he stated in a column co-written with AI policy expert Selina Xu. “There is a worry that Silicon Valley is fixated on this goal.” Schmidt and Xu also emphasized the achievements AI has already delivered, expressing concern over Silicon Valley’s preoccupation with the horizon.

“There exists a significant divide between engineers who believe AGI is just around the corner and the general public, who often view AI through a skeptical lens and see it as an inconvenience in daily life,” they wrote.

It remains to be seen if the industry heeds these warnings. Investors are eagerly awaiting quarterly revenue reports for signs that each company’s multibillion-dollar investments are warranted while management aims to keep morale high. The ongoing promotion and allure of AI play a crucial role in alleviating investor anxiety, particularly amid a quarterly rise in projected spending across the board. For instance, Mark Zuckerberg recently suggested that those not engaging with AI tools could be at a cognitive disadvantage, indicating that companies like Meta and Google may continue integrating AI into their essential products, leveraging them to enhance training data and user populations.

The first major test of this AI reality check will occur on Wednesday, as chipmaker Nvidia, a key player in developing large language models, releases its latest revenue figures. While analysts are optimistic, the volatile stock week poses a challenge, making investors’ reactions to Nvidia’s earnings and spending updates a critical indicator of their future enthusiasm for the AI hype.

Have You Bonded with an AI?



 Photo: Morsa Images/Getty Images

Frequent CHATGPT users often develop a strong emotional connection with AI. When changes occur, they take notice. Many users were dismayed by the introduction of OpenAI’s latest update to the GPT-5 model. My colleague Dani Anjano reports:

“It felt truly unsettling; it was a challenging time,” remarked Swedish software developer Linn Vailt about the update. “It seemed like someone shifted all the furniture in your home.”

ChatGPT quickly adapted, promising updates to the personality features and allowing access to older models for subscribers, recognizing the significance of these features for users.

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Have you formed a bond with AI? We want to hear from you. Please reach out at techscape.us@theguardian.com.

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The Debate on Facial Recognition

TikTok Believes Machines Outperform Humans in Content Moderation



 Photo: Romain Doucelin/SOPA Images/Rex/Shutterstock

TikTok is downsizing its UK trust and safety team. My colleague Lauren Almeida reported:

TikTok’s decision puts hundreds of roles from the UK content moderation team at risk, even amid stricter measures aimed at curbing harmful content online.

The popular video app has revealed that hundreds of jobs in its trust and safety teams could be impacted in the UK, along with South and Southeast Asia, as part of a global restructuring.

In September, the company let go of an entire team of 300 content moderators in the Netherlands, and in October, it announced the replacement of around 500 content moderation roles in Malaysia as part of its transition towards AI.

Recently, German TikTok employees protested against the layoffs within its trust and safety teams, which was the driving force behind this restructuring.

Read All Episodes: Despite new online safety regulations, hundreds of TikTok UK moderators face uncertainty in their roles.

These layoffs are part of a larger global initiative to moderate content using AI. According to TikTok, 85% of content removals on the platform are currently handled by automated systems. The parent company, ByteDance, appears eager to increase this percentage.

The company is not downplaying the significance of human oversight in tackling sensitive issues. It’s generating considerable revenue, with reports indicating a 38% increase in the UK and European markets. This strategy mirrors similar moves by other tech giants, like Meta, which have dismantled fact-checking initiatives and made significant cuts to their trust and safety teams.

TikTok has also conducted minor layoffs within its US Trust and Safety Team. The absence of mass terminations of content moderators raises questions: Is this move too risky amid unclear US policies towards the app? The White House’s recent TikTok account launch may signal a shift. Recall previous administrations’ attempts to limit the app’s presence in the US. The ban remains in limbo, upheld by a fragile executive order.

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Source: www.theguardian.com

As Key Atlantic Currents Decelerate, US East Coast Confronts Rising Sea Levels

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AMOC is a system of ocean currents that circulates water in the Atlantic Ocean.

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

The decline in significant Atlantic currents is contributing to flooding linked to rising sea levels in the northeastern United States, which are already affected by climate change. As global temperatures increase, a total collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could exacerbate sea level rise.

“If AMOC collapses, this will greatly increase flood frequency along the US coastline, independent of major storms,” states Liping Chan from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in New Jersey. “Even a partial reduction in current strength can have significant consequences.”

The warm waters melting ice sheets and rising sea levels are influenced by climate change, which leads to uneven rates of sea level rise across different regions. For instance, some coastal areas have subsided, increasing the relative rate of sea level rise there. Local sea levels are also affected by the circulation of heat, water, and salt in the ocean, with warm, fresh water occupying more volume than cold, salty water.

Over the past few decades, sea levels along the northeastern US coast have risen 3-4 times faster than the global average. The slowing of AMOC—responsible for transporting warm water from lower latitudes to the North Atlantic, where it cools and sinks—has long been considered a potential cause of this phenomenon. As this circulation weakens, warm deep water expands, pushing more water onto the shallow continental shelf.

AMOC strength varies naturally over different timescales, and climate change has contributed to its slowdown as the North Atlantic and its waters have become warmer and clearer in recent decades. However, it remained uncertain whether this decrease significantly affected sea levels.

Chang and her team utilized tidal gauge measurements from the New England coast to reconstruct local sea levels dating back over a century. Alongside a steady rise due to climate change, they identified significant fluctuations between low and high sea levels every few decades. Low sea levels correlated with periods of weak AMOC, while high sea levels were also aligned with these intervals, which brought more frequent coastal flooding.

The researchers then employed two distinct ocean models to quantify the impact of AMOC intensity variations on local sea levels. While the primary driver of change was the steady rise due to climate change, they discovered that weakened AMOCs significantly increased sea-level-related flooding. In multiple coastal regions, they noted that the slowdown in AMOC has contributed to delaying flooding by 20-50% since 2005.

Given that the natural cycle of AMOC strength is largely predictable, Zhang asserts that these findings enable researchers to forecast potential flooding events up to three years in advance. This foresight can guide long-term infrastructure planning and emergency preparedness.

“This highlights the critical role of AMOC in [sea level rise],” remarks Chris Hughes, who was not involved in the research, from the University of Liverpool in the UK. “It’s not merely theoretical; it’s evident in the real world.”

It remains unclear how much of the recent AMOC weakening is attributable to climate change versus natural variability. Nevertheless, the findings bolster predictions that if AMOC were to completely collapse due to climate change, significant portions of the US East Coast could experience a surge in sea levels.

Hughes warns that if AMOC nearly collapses, sea levels could rise by around 24 centimeters. “While it may not seem dramatic, even a small increase can have a substantial effect.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

The melting Antarctic ice may decelerate the rise in sea levels

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Weddell Sea ice shelf in Antarctica

Sergio Pitamitz/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Uplifting the land beneath the Antarctic ice sheet could help slow ice loss and limit sea level rise over the coming centuries, but if emissions continue to rise, it could cause more sea levels to rise than the ice melt alone.

The findings come from models that simulate Earth’s mantle, the layer beneath the crust, in greater detail than ever before. When Antarctica loses its weight as ice melts, the elastic mantle beneath it bounces back, causing the land above it to rise. When ice melts and the continents lose their weight, Earth’s elastic mantle bounces back, causing the land above it to rise. The bounced back land can slow the flow of ice sheets where they meet the ocean. This “sea-level feedback” occurs primarily because the uplifted land changes the shape of the ocean floor, limiting the thickness of the ice sheet’s edges. Thinner ice there reduces the overall inflow of ice into the ocean.

Researchers have long suspected that this effect plays a role in slowing ice loss, but it was unclear when this effect begins or how it varies in different parts of the ice sheet.

Natalia Gomez Gomes and his colleagues at McGill University in Canada modeled the relationship between the melting ice and the rebounding land, and also simulated the mantle, capturing the different viscosities beneath the continents: East Antarctica sits on a more viscous mantle and thicker crust, while West Antarctica’s rapidly melting glaciers sit on a less viscous mantle and thinner crust. This more detailed picture of Earth’s interior is based on precise measurements of ice sheet elevation changes over decades, as well as data about the mantle beneath Antarctica from seismic waves generated by earthquakes. “This is hard-earned,” Gomes says.

The researchers found that under a very low emissions scenario, compared to a model that considered the ground beneath the ice solid, land uplift would reduce Antarctica’s contribution to global mean sea level rise by more than 50 centimeters by 2500. This effect was less pronounced under a moderate emissions scenario, but still led to a large reduction in sea level rise, with effects starting to be felt as early as 2100.

But in a very high emissions scenario, the team found that land uplift in Antarctica would raise sea levels by an additional 0.8 meters by 2500. This happened because the ice sheet retreated faster than land uplift, and the rising sea floor pushed more water into the rest of the ocean.

“From a modeling perspective, this is a huge step forward.” Alexander Bradley The British Antarctic Survey’s Bradley says it’s always been thought that land uplift would limit sea-level rise, but this high-resolution modeling shows that the effect depends on emissions. “The changes that occur in the 21st and 22nd centuries will depend very much on what we do now,” he says.

Alexander Lovell Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta call it a “very good simulation,” but the scenario in which land uplift drives sea level rise is based on worst-case assumptions about emissions and the rate at which ice sheets are retreating.

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Source: www.newscientist.com