Tag Archives: fires

No Carbon Offset Programs Established Due to Forest Fires

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Wildfires raging in the Amazon rainforest

Fernando Lessa/Alamy

Numerous forest-related carbon offset initiatives certified by Verra, the largest carbon registry globally, face potential risks from wildfires and other disturbances that may hinder effective carbon release from the atmosphere.

These forest-based carbon offset initiatives aim to conserve or restore forests to produce carbon credits, which can be sold to corporations or individuals to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Such schemes are designed to maintain a “buffer pool” of unsold carbon credits as insurance against future carbon losses due to factors like wildfires, pests, or severe weather events. Nevertheless, assessments of these buffer pools indicate that current carbon offset strategies are likely not sufficiently secured.

“The figures don’t really rely on scientific evidence, as far as we know,” stated William Anderegg from the University of Utah. A spokesperson from Verra defended the organization’s methodology, asserting that the determination of buffer pool size is grounded in rigorous, science-based risk evaluations, stressing that replenishment should align with what buffer-immersed projects have collected.

Buffer pools pose a significant challenge, especially when forest-based carbon credits are sold to offset emissions from fossil fuels that may have been in the atmosphere for centuries. “If you’re attempting to sequester carbon into trees, you need to guarantee its stability over an extended period,” Anderegg remarked.

In principle, by safeguarding adequate carbon to counterbalance potential losses over decades, a large buffer pool would suffice. However, previous research by Anderegg and his team revealed that forest carbon projects certified by Verra typically secured only 2% of their credits for protection against natural risks.

To evaluate whether this is an adequate safeguard, Anderegg and his colleagues employed ecological models to calculate the necessary size of the buffer to effectively manage the risk posed by natural disturbances across various tropical forest types. They juxtaposed these findings with the buffer pools currently mandated for Verra certification.

The results indicated that Verra’s standards fall short of ensuring permanent carbon storage in nearly all scenarios. In certain instances, the required buffer could be 11 times smaller than necessary. “Given these natural hazards, [the buffer] should be at least doubled, if not more, to be fitting,” Anderegg noted.

A Verra representative mentioned that the majority of the 76 million carbon credits presently within the buffer pool are utilized. They added, “previous reversals suggest that the buffer is not overwhelmed.” “The ongoing maintenance of buffer pools over time clearly demonstrates their effectiveness despite the risk of reversals,” the spokesperson stated.

Buffer pools are not merely a concern for Verra. For instance, California’s regulated carbon offset program has faced wildfires in recent years. A significant portion of the buffer pool was designed to endure for a century.

This concern is anticipated to grow as forest carbon losses escalate. “To secure sustainability extending beyond 100 years, you must ensure that the buffer is sufficiently robust to confront multiple climate variations,” Anderegg concluded.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Understanding the containment of the Los Angeles fires

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The raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area are still causing havoc, with firefighters facing strong winds in their efforts to control the blazes.

But what exactly does it mean to “contain” a wildfire?

Simply extinguishing the fire does not mean it is completely out. Containment refers to the establishment of a perimeter around an active fire to prevent it from spreading and consuming more land.

Firefighters work to suppress wildfires by creating natural barriers like roads, highways, rivers, and waterways to surround the flames and prevent them from spreading. They also construct containment lines by digging trenches and clearing vegetation around the fire.

The level of containment is expressed as a percentage, reflecting how well the fire has been contained, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association.

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The largest fire in the Los Angeles area, the Palisades Fire, has burned over 23,000 acres and is 14% contained as of Monday. The Eaton Fire in Altadena and Pasadena is 33% contained, while the Hearst Fire in Sylmar is 95% contained, according to Cal Fire.

Containment is a crucial measure of progress in firefighting efforts, but it can change as the fire develops and environmental conditions fluctuate.

In Southern California, strong Santa Ana winds are expected to pose a significant fire risk in Los Angeles and Ventura counties over the next few days. Dry, windy conditions can fuel existing fires and accelerate new ones.

Even after a fire is extinguished, it may continue to burn for some time. The primary goal is to prevent the fire from crossing the containment line.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The Los Angeles Fires: A Foreseen and Feared Worst-Case Scenario

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overview

  • The Los Angeles-area fires are a worst-case scenario, caused by high winds after months of no rain.
  • Fire experts, past reports, and risk assessments all predicted wildfire catastrophe to some degree.
  • The geography and weather of the affected areas, combined with climate change and suburban sprawl in fire-prone areas, created a vulnerable situation.

For the Los Angeles area, the recent series of wildfires represents the worst-case scenario. After months of no significant rain, unusually strong and prolonged Santa Ana winds hit. But the severe effects of the fires are surprising, according to an NBC News review of past fire post-mortem reports, wildfire risk maps, wildfire risk public meetings, and interviews with fire experts. It is said that it is not.

“It’s completely foreseeable,” said Char Miller, a professor of environmental analysis and history at Pomona College.

The fire forced the evacuation of about 180,000 people, knocked out power to about 500,000 customers, and destroyed thousands of homes.

“We’ve been building homes deep in fire zones. We know it’s a fire zone, we know it’s dangerous, and yet city halls and county governments are increasingly We continue to green light development in high-risk locations,” Miller said. “It’s a combination of all the undesirable factors.”

Wildfire risk for homes in Los Angeles County Higher than 99% of U.S. countiesaccording to a federal government analysis. The Pacific Palisades, Hollywood Hills and Altadena are the three areas where the fires are occurring, and are at “very high fire risk.” According to a map from the Los Angeles Fire Department and state.

“It’s not a matter of if, but when,” said Joe Scott, chief fire scientist at wildfire risk consultancy Pyrologics, which worked on the federal analysis. “But this is the high end of what could happen.”

After the Woolsey Fire in November 2018, Review after action We discussed problems similar to those faced by firefighters today.

The flames shot across the Santa Monica Mountains toward homes on the Malibu coast, spreading flames up to a mile from the front line and forcing the evacuation of 250,000 people. More than 1,000 homes were destroyed in Ventura and Los Angeles counties.

The report described it as a “perfect storm”.

The report said the speed and intensity of the fire “overwhelmed resources on the scene” and noted that the dead-end canyon road made access for evacuation and firefighting efforts difficult. The review said that given the weather and fire department limitations, initial responses in Malibu and along the Pacific Coast Highway should have focused on protecting lives and providing safety, rather than protecting property. But the public and policymakers did not fully understand that reality, the report said.

“The public has a sense that public institutions will always protect them. As the scale of the Woolsey Fire shows, this is not always possible,” the report said, putting the death toll at 3. He praised the first responders who kept the situation under control.

It concluded that adding more fire engines and taking steps to better prepare homes for potential fires may not be enough to protect new developments in fire-prone areas.

“Even if the current fire weather cycle were to stop, it would occur again,” the report said.

This week, that prediction came true. Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Malone said Wednesday there simply aren’t enough firefighters. Deal with the situation considering the weather conditions.

Firefighters are battling the Palisades fire Tuesday.Ethan Swope/Associated Press

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Source: www.nbcnews.com

Arctic Faces High Temperatures, Melting Ice, and Fires in 2024 According to NOAA Report

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overview

  • This year was the second hottest year on record in the Arctic, according to a new report from NOAA.
  • The authors said the tundra has become a carbon source rather than a carbon sink.
  • The North Pole is heating much faster than lower altitude locations because melting ice reflects less radiation back into space.

The Arctic just experienced its second warmest year on record. And worryingly, the region's tundra is transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon emitter as permafrost thaws and methane is released.

This would only increase the amount of heat-trapping gas entering the atmosphere, paving the way for further global warming.

The findings, shared Tuesday in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Arctic Report Card, show how climate change is disrupting ecosystems and altering the landscape in regions where global warming is most intense.

The Arctic, considered a leading region for the effects of climate change, is heating much faster than lower-altitude locations, depending on the baseline scientists use for comparisons and which geographies they include in their assessments. But that speed is 2-4 times faster. Each of the last nine years in the Arctic has been the hottest on record since 1900.

This dynamic is the result of a phenomenon called arctic amplification. As snow cover and sea ice are lost in the Arctic, more dark-colored water and rocks are revealed. Their dark surfaces reflect less radiation back into space, instead absorbing heat. In addition, ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns increasingly transport heat toward the Earth's poles.

Taken together, that means the Arctic is a fundamentally different place than it was just a decade ago. Twila Moon said.

“The Arctic is in a kind of new regime, not a new normal, of course, but it's definitely different than it was just a few decades ago,” she says.

Overall, the Arctic is becoming a greener landscape with more extreme precipitation, less snow and ice, the report said. As fires in the Arctic send smoke into populated areas, ice melts and sea levels rise, the effects of those changes are becoming increasingly apparent closer to American homes, scientists said.

“These problems aren't just limited to the Arctic; they affect all of us,” says Brendan Rogers, an associate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. .

This year's report includes a detailed explanation of how the carbon cycle in the Arctic is changing. Scientists have been closely watching what happens when permafrost thaws, releasing powerful greenhouse gases as it thaws and decomposes.

“Permafrost regions contain about twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere, and about three times as much carbon as is contained in the above-ground biomass of forests around the world. There's a lot of carbon out there,” Rogers said.

He added that permafrost areas “have been carbon sinks for thousands of years on average, primarily due to low temperatures and frozen soil.” Carbon sinks, by definition, absorb and capture more carbon dioxide than they emit. But now such areas are instead sources of greenhouse gas emissions, as they dissolve carbon and methane and release it into the atmosphere, Rogers said.

Wildfires also contribute to Arctic emissions. Last year's wildfires burned more than twice as much area in the region as the year before, and produced more emissions than Canada's economic activity.

Rogers said Canada's total wildfire emissions are “roughly three times the emissions from all other sectors in Canada.” “This is more than the annual emissions of any other country except China, the United States, India and Russia.”

Last year's wildfires forced the evacuation of Yellowknife, the capital of Canada's Northwest Territories. About 19,000 people had to evacuate the cityin Areas with discontinuous permafrost.

Temperature records are organized by Arctic water year, so the most recent records are from October 2023 to September 2024. Every September, scientists measure the extent of Arctic sea ice at its seasonal minimum.

This year's sea ice was the sixth lowest in the 45 years since satellite measurements began. Sea ice extent has decreased by about 50% since the 1980s. Meanwhile, the Arctic tundra is the second greenest since records began in 2000, indicating more shrubs have taken root and spread into new terrain.

Measurements of Arctic permafrost taken from boreholes drilled beneath the earth's surface show that average temperatures were warmer than in all but one year.

“There are many indicators that consistently show extreme or near-extreme conditions,” Moon said.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Record high CO2 emissions driven by drought, fires, and use of fossil fuels

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Wildfires in the tropics caused a slight increase in CO2 emissions, but most of that was due to burning fossil fuels

Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images

Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2024 are expected to exceed last year's record levels, dashing hopes that global warming emissions will peak this year.

“Reducing emissions is more urgent than ever, and the only way to do that is by significantly reducing fossil fuel emissions,” he said. Pierre Friedlingstein At the University of Exeter, UK.

This is according to the latest global carbon budget. reporta preliminary calculation of CO2 emissions to date, including projections until the end of the year, prepared by Friedlingstein and his colleagues. The announcement was made at the ongoing COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, where countries aim to set new fiscal targets to combat climate change.

Last year, some researchers predicted a peak in emissions in 2024, but the report found that anthropogenic CO2 emissions would reach a record high of 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, up 2% from the 2023 record. It has been revealed that the number is expected to increase. Almost 90% of that total is made up of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The remainder is primarily due to land changes caused by deforestation and wildfires.

Fossil fuel emissions will grow at 0.8 percent, half as much as in 2023, but still higher than the average growth rate over the past decade. “[The slower rate] This is a good sign, but we are still miles away from reaching our goal,” says Friedlingstein.

Despite a long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land-use change also increased this year, mainly due to drought-induced wildfires in the tropics. Part of this increase is also due to the collapse of terrestrial sinks of carbon in 2023, which typically removes about a quarter of annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This absorption decreased by more than 40 percent last year and in early 2024 as global temperatures soared due to El Niño.

“2023 is an amazing demonstration of what can happen in a warmer world when El Niño droughts and fires combine to create record global temperatures,” he says. pep canadel He is a researcher at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Agency and co-author of this report. “Taken all together, the world's forests contributed almost a third less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere last year than they did in the previous decade.”

This will also increase emissions in 2024, but researchers expect this “land carbon sink” to largely recover as the warming effects of El Niño fade. “This is not a long-term collapse,” Friedlingstein says.

The report reveals that China's CO2 emissions, which emit almost a third of the world's total emissions, are projected to increase by only 0.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. . Canadel said this forecast of China's emissions has a large margin of error, so they may actually be stable or even declining. India's emissions have also slowed down from last year, increasing by just under 5%. In the US and EU, emissions continued to decline, albeit at a much slower pace than last year.

Increased demand for electricity to power air conditioners due to higher temperatures is also a key reason why fossil fuel emissions will continue to rise despite a massive build-up of renewable energy in 2024. He says: Neil Grant At the German think tank Climate Analytics. Whether it's from electric vehicles, data centers or manufacturing, “most people seem to be a little surprised by the level of electricity demand this year,” he says.

If emissions continue at this level, the world will exceed its carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within six years, and exceed its budget to limit warming to 2°C within 27 years, the report says. Pointed out. .

“We have to accelerate, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” Candell said. “Climate change is like a slippery slope and we can keep falling. We need to slam on the brakes as hard as we can to avoid falling.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Fires persist on the Pacific Crest Trail, leading to closures and evacuations

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The Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) is facing increasing challenges due to wildfires and their aftermaths, making sections of the trail hazardous and leading to sudden road closures. Long-distance hikers are experiencing significant environmental transformations as wildfires ravage the area, while rural communities near the trail are stepping up to assist hikers during wildfire emergencies.

According to Riley, wildfires are becoming more frequent and unpredictable, affecting a larger number of trails, users, and communities. The PCT, which traverses diverse terrains like the Mojave Desert, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and Cascade Mountains, attracts thousands of long-distance hikers and hundreds of thousands of day hikers annually.

However, the combination of global warming-induced extreme temperatures and decades of aggressive fire suppression has led to intense wildfire seasons altering the landscape along the PCT. Climate change effects are noticeable along the trail, with local weather scientist John O’Brien remarking, “This is an extended tour of climate history.”

Trail crews on the Pacific Crest Trail pass through burned areas of the Eagle Creek Fire in the Columbia River Gorge near Portland, Oregon, in 2018.Jamie Hale/The Oregonian via The Associated Press

Apart from fire risks, climate change is intensifying water scarcity along the trail and affecting wildlife populations. Glacial retreat in higher elevations is exposing more slippery rock, while river levels are peaking earlier in the season, leading to hazardous crossings.

Hikers like Karen Altergott have faced extreme weather conditions, from heavy late-season snowfall to intense heat waves, prompting concerns about the impact on health. Altergott emphasized the need for preparedness and flexibility when dealing with changing trail conditions.

Karen Altergott.Courtesy of Karen Altergott

The PCT community is coming together to tackle these challenges, with the Pacific Crest Trail Association releasing a smartphone app to help hikers navigate wildfire closures. Local “trail angels” are also stepping up to provide aid, transport, and support to stranded hikers during emergencies.

Becky Wade and her partner Jeff McCabe.Courtesy of Becky Wade

Becky Wade and Jeff McCabe, who have experienced evacuations due to wildfires, exemplify the importance of community support. Their efforts in assisting hikers around fire-affected areas highlight the crucial role of local residents in ensuring hiker safety along the PCT.

Although wildfires and their aftermath present challenges, hikers like Will Geolis attest to the enduring value of the PCT experience. While adapting to changing trail conditions is necessary, the trail’s community and scenic beauty remain priceless.

Joris aptly sums up the essence of the PCT experience, emphasizing that it’s the people and the journey that truly matter, rather than completing a continuous hike along the trail.

Source: www.nbcnews.com