Vast areas of the Amazon rainforest are cleared for cattle ranching
Michael Dantas/AFP via Getty Images
The alarming rate of deforestation is significantly diminishing rainfall patterns across the Amazon, indicating that this vital rainforest could hit a catastrophic tipping point sooner than previously anticipated.
Research from 1980 to 2019 indicates that rainfall in the southern Amazon basin has diminished by 8 to 11 percent, based on satellite data and rain gauge readings. During this same time frame, tree cover in the region has shrunk by 16 percent, primarily due to deforestation linked to beef cattle ranching.
Contrastingly, deforestation has been less pronounced in the northern Amazon Basin, where precipitation has only shown minor increases that lack statistical significance.
Recent research highlights that deforestation contributes to arid conditions within a 300-kilometer radius. This new analysis reveals that this effect spans over a basin wider than 3,000 kilometers, suggesting that deforestation harms not just forests, but also the productivity of adjacent ranches and soybean farms, according to Dominique Spracklen from the University of Leeds.
“Some in agribusiness may perceive sections of the forest as underutilized land. Yet, these forests play a crucial role in maintaining regional rainfall, which in turn benefits our agricultural practices,” Spracklen explains.
Global warming is exacerbating the drying of the Amazon, culminating in extreme droughts and unprecedented wildfires in 2024. However, atmospheric studies led by Spracklen and colleagues indicate that deforestation is responsible for 52 to 75 percent of the decline in rainfall.
Moisture from the Atlantic Ocean is transported by prevailing winds into the Amazon, where it precipitates as rain. Plants contribute to this cycle as evaporation and transpiration return about three-quarters of that water to the atmosphere. Further downwind, it falls again as rain through multiple cycles, creating “flying rivers” that distribute moisture across the rainforest.
When forested areas are destroyed, over half of the rainwater is redirected to rivers and subsequently returns to the ocean, depleting the moisture available for the flying rivers and leading to reduced rainfall. Additionally, this diminishes atmospheric instability necessary for storm cloud formation, Spracklen and his team discovered.
As fewer trees slow down the wind, it tends to pick up speed, removing more moisture from the area.
Unlike previous research, this study employs a combination of data and modeling to effectively illustrate how deforestation impacts rainfall patterns, asserts Yadvinder Malhi from Oxford University.
“The atmosphere becomes smoother and, in a sense, slipperier. There’s reduced friction with the ground, enabling moisture to travel further out of forested regions,” Malhi notes, emphasizing the significance of secondary atmospheric processes often overlooked in prior studies.
Scientists voice concerns that the cumulative impact of heightened temperatures, drought, and deforestation could push the Amazon rainforest to a tipping point where it transitions into a savannah ecosystem, although the timeline for this transition remains uncertain. Spracklen and his colleagues found that climate models may underestimate the influence of deforestation on rainfall by as much as 50 percent, implying that the rainforest could face significant threats earlier than anticipated.
According to a 2022 study, there is a 37% probability that certain regions of the Amazon could vanish by 2100 if global temperatures, currently at 1.4°C, rise to 1.5°C. However, this does not necessarily imply that rainforests will convert into savannahs; it may lead to the emergence of fewer species and scrub forests capable of storing less carbon.
“The Amazon’s sensitivity is greater than we previously imagined, which is troubling,” he states. “We may be closer to the deforestation threshold than we realize, although there remains significant uncertainty surrounding this issue.”
According to a recent study, severe and long-lasting river droughts, lasting over 85 years each, impacted the Indus basin from 4,400 to 3,400 years ago. This finding may provide insights into the gradual decline of this ancient civilization and underscores how environmental factors can influence historical societies.
An artist’s reconstruction of the gates and drainage channels of the ancient city of Harappa. Image credit: Chris Sloan.
The Indus Valley Civilization, one of the earliest urban cultures, thrived between 5,000 and 3,500 years ago along the Indus River and its tributaries in present-day Pakistan and northwestern India.
During its zenith, around 4,500 to 3,900 years ago, the civilization was noted for its advanced urban centers and sophisticated systems for managing water resources.
Despite this, the reasons behind the protracted decline following its peak remain largely elusive.
“The Indus River played a crucial role in the growth of the ancient Indus Valley civilization by offering a consistent water source for agriculture, trade, and communication,” stated Dr. Bimal Mishra from the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar and his colleagues.
“Civilizations prospered near the Indus River and its tributaries approximately 5,000 years ago and evolved over time.”
“The mature Harappan phase (4,500 to 3,900 years ago) was marked by meticulously planned cities, advanced water management techniques, and an intricate writing system.”
“However, post 3,900 years ago, the Harappan civilization began to deteriorate and eventually fell into decline.”
“The causes for this decline are still under discussion. Potential factors encompass shifts in river dynamics influenced by climate change, ocean retreat, drought, flooding, and alterations in social and political structures.”
“Understanding ancient hydroclimatic events and their impact on societies provides vital insights into the susceptibility of complex societies to environmental pressures.”
For this research, the authors simulated climate patterns in the Indus Valley from 5,000 to 3,000 years ago.
They integrated these findings with various indirect climate indicators, including the geochemistry of stalactites and stalagmites from two caves in India and water level data from five lakes in northwestern India.
The results indicated that temperatures rose by approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius during this time, while average annual precipitation in the region decreased by 10% to 20%.
They were able to identify four significant drought periods lasting over 85 years between 4,450 and 3,400 years ago, impacting 65% to 91% of the Indus Valley area.
“These droughts affected the selection of settlement locations in the Indus Valley Civilization,” the researchers noted.
“From 5,000 to 4,500 years ago, settlements were primarily situated in regions with abundant rainfall.”
“However, after 4,500 years ago, they shifted closer to the Indus River as drought conditions began to limit water availability.”
“The last identified drought, lasting 113 years from 3,531 to 3,418 years ago, corresponds with archaeological evidence of significant urbanization in the Indus Valley Civilization.”
“Instead of collapsing abruptly due to sudden climate changes, the Indus civilization likely faced a gradual decline, with extended drought being a key factor,” concluded the researchers.
Their study was published on November 27 in the journal Communication Earth and Environment.
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H. Solanki et al. 2025. River drought forcing Harappan metamorphosis. Communication Earth and Environment 6,926; doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02901-1
Indus Valley Civilization ruins in Moenjodaro, Pakistan
Sergey-73/Shutterstock
A changing climate and intense droughts significantly impacted the Indus Valley Civilization, a remarkable urban society that thrived approximately 4,000 years ago in present-day Pakistan and India.
This civilization established settlements along the Indus River and its tributaries, extending their reach beyond other prominent ancient cultures like those in Egypt and Mesopotamia. Known as the Harappan civilization, they constructed various cities, with Harappa being a notable hub housing around 35,000 residents.
While their writing system remains largely undeciphered, the Harappans excelled in water management, featuring extensive cisterns and a complex sewage system made of terracotta pipes and brick channels. Unfortunately, these advancements could not endure the prolonged hot and arid conditions over millennia.
“There were four significant droughts between the pre-Harappan and late Harappan periods,” says Vimal Mishra, a researcher at the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar. “This led to ongoing migrations to regions with more reliable water sources.”
Prior studies indicated that a global drought 4,200 years ago weakened monsoon rains in the Indus Valley, contributing to the civilizations’ downfall. However, Mishra and his colleagues posit that the decline was a more gradual process.
Using three climate models, the researchers estimated rainfall patterns in the area, validating their conclusions with data from stalactites, stalagmites, and lake sediments.
The findings revealed that from 4,400 to 3,400 years ago, the Indus Valley Civilization experienced four prolonged droughts, each lasting at least 85 years, accompanied by a temperature increase of about 0.5°C.
Additional modeling suggested a drop in the Indus River’s water levels. It is believed that the Harappans honored the river and relied on its annual floods for irrigation of crops such as wheat and barley, congregating around waterways. Continued droughts ultimately forced them to abandon their cities and resettle in the foothills of the Himalayas and the Ganges plains.
Research indicates that warming and drying trends may have been initiated by natural climate cycles such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, along with feedback mechanisms including vegetation loss and dust pollution.
This study stands out for its innovative integration of modeling and proxy measurements; however, it advocates for future research to consider evapotranspiration (the transfer of water from land to the atmosphere), particularly significant in hot climates. According to Sebastian Breitenbach from Northumbria University, UK, the current pace of climate change outstrips that of the Harappans, necessitating that policymakers explore adaptive strategies, including improved water storage systems and groundwater conservation.
“These studies serve as a cautionary tale,” Breitenbach remarks, “providing insights into potential future scenarios.”
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Riverbed near Latian Dam, one of Tehran’s main water sources, Iran
BAHRAM/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
Iran faces an extreme drought, prompting the president to suggest a possible evacuation of Tehran. To mitigate the situation, cloud-seeding aircraft will start operations on November 15, set to persist through the rainy season until May. However, experts caution that this method is complex and unlikely to significantly alleviate the water crisis on its own.
How critical is the drought in Iran?
Iran’s rainfall is down by 85 percent, with Tehran registering only 1 mm this year. Local reservoirs are reported to be in a dire condition, with 32 dams barely holding 5 percent of their capacity. Satellite imagery shows some areas completely parched.
Residents of Tehran have cut their water usage by approximately 10 percent, yet this reduction falls short. Water pressure has diminished overnight, and officials are preparing to fine households and businesses that exceed their water limits. The president indicated that if rains do not increase by December, 14 million people in Tehran might need to relocate.
What are the causes of drought?
Experts attribute the drought, which has persisted for five years, to climate change. This autumn is the driest Iran has seen in 50 years, with temperatures reaching above 15°C (59°F) in Tehran, a city usually experiencing snowfall in November.
However, mismanagement is largely to blame. Kave Madani, a former environmental ministry official, labels Iran a “water bankrupt.” The government has expanded agriculture in arid regions excessively, stressing water resources. A staggering number of illegal wells—around half a million—have been drilled by desperate farmers, draining groundwater supplies.
What exactly is cloud seeding?
Cloud seeding originated in the 1940s with scientists like Bernard Vonnegut, brother of author Kurt Vonnegut. The process involves dispersing particles that encourage water droplets in clouds to precipitate as rain. While some studies have experimented with salt, the focus has generally been on spraying silver iodide into upper-level mixed-phase clouds. When supercooled liquid droplets encounter this crystalline material, they crystallize into ice that ultimately falls as rain or snow.
Determining the amount of precipitation caused by cloud seeding can be challenging, especially in the absence of cloud formation.
“The natural variability of clouds is significant, making it tough to quantify their impacts,” says Andrea Frosman from the University of Clermont-Auvergne, France. “Externally, clouds appear, but not all of them bring rain.”
A 2014 experiment conducted in Wyoming indicated that cloud seeding could enhance precipitation by 5 to 15 percent.
Is there hope for resolving the drought?
Previously, Iran blamed Israel and the United Arab Emirates for “stealing” rain via cloud seeding, but it’s now taking matters into its own hands. It plans to deploy cargo planes, drones, and a “ground generator”, which is essentially a smoker’s oven, commonly located in mountainous regions.
On November 15, clouds formed over the watershed surrounding Lake Urmia, which has been barren for over two decades, now reduced to a salt flat littered with decaying boats. Initial reports suggest that areas west of the lake received up to 2.7 centimeters of rain the following morning, as indicated by a precipitation map from the University of California, Irvine.
Success in cloud seeding depends on the presence of moisture-rich clouds, which might be sparse in arid Iran, where large bodies of water are limited.
“Cloud seeding becomes particularly challenging during droughts, owing to the extremely dry atmosphere that may not support moisture-laden clouds,” notes Karen Howard, a scientist with the U.S. General Accounting Office.
Yet, in recent days, numerous rain clouds have poured into Iran from the Black Sea, causing localized flooding in regions such as Iram and Kurdistan on November 16.
Cloud seeding might help “extract a few additional droplets” from these weather systems, according to Armin Sorooshian at the University of Arizona. “While it won’t create flooding or completely solve the drought issue, it may provide a minor benefit.”
Recent studies indicate that elevated temperatures have led to increased groundwater infiltration, exacerbating drought conditions and accelerating evaporation, thereby significantly decreasing the availability of freshwater.
The concept of “continental aridity” reallocates oceanic water to an extent, outpacing the melting of ice sheets as the primary factor contributing to global sea level rise, according to the research.
Loss of land water can severely affect access to safe drinking water and the ability to cultivate crops in some of the most fertile agricultural areas worldwide.
“We consume a significant amount of water for food production,” stated Jay Famiglietti, a professor at Arizona State University’s School of Sustainability and one of the study’s authors. “If conditions remain unaltered, we anticipate that this will influence food security and overall water availability.”
The findings should be viewed as a primary concern by the public, resource managers, and global decision-makers, the researchers asserted. Research indicates that the identified trends convey a profoundly concerning message regarding the past effects of climate change.
“The continent is becoming drier, freshwater sustainability is diminishing, and the pace of sea level rise is accelerating,” the authors noted.
Published on Friday in the Advances in Journal Science, the study examines shifts in terrestrial water sources, including lakes, subterranean aquifers, and soil moisture over the last two decades. The researchers discovered that various elements, notably climate change, are disrupting Earth’s natural water cycle and complicating its flow between land, oceans, and the atmosphere.
Utilizing data from four NASA satellite suites, researchers analyzed terrestrial water storage modifications over the past 22 years. The satellites are specifically designed to monitor Earth’s water movement, including variations in ice sheets, glaciers, and underground reserves.
For instance, researchers found that arid regions of the world have been rapidly drying since 2014, with these drought-impacted areas expanding annually by regions twice the size of California.
In certain instances, areas experiencing drought have grown into large interconnected “megadry” spaces, as indicated by the research. One such vicinity encompasses Central America, Mexico, California, the southwestern United States, the lower Colorado River basin, and segments of the Southern Plateau.
“The essential takeaway here is that water is indeed a crucial factor influencing changes observed on both land and at sea,” remarked Benjamin Hamlington, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who was part of the science team facilitating decades of data used in this new investigation.
The study revealed that all major land masses, except Greenland and Antarctica, have witnessed unprecedented dryness since 2002.
This widespread continental aridity is anticipated to have significant ramifications for humanity, with researchers noting that three-quarters of the global population resides in nations where freshwater resources are diminishing.
Simultaneously, rising oceans threaten coastal areas globally, decreasing habitability and increasing vulnerabilities to extreme storms and flooding. In the U.S., severe weather has contributed to insurance crises in coastal cities prone to these extreme events.
The correlation between sea level rise and the depletion of groundwater is a consequence of disrupting the planet’s water cycle. Many of these changes, such as excessive groundwater extraction, are regarded as permanent and could remain irreversible for millennia, according to Alexander Sims, a professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
“When water is extracted from the land, the only viable destination is the ocean,” he explained. “This water then enters the atmosphere, with 88% eventually returning as precipitation on Earth, leading back to the ocean.”
Sims acknowledged that while the study is significant for estimating the global scale of water losses, he harbors doubts about the assertion that these continental water losses outweigh ice sheet melting as the primary contributor to sea level rise.
However, Hamlington emphasized that this study illustrates how the movement of water around the Earth generates substantial ripple effects. It also suggests that further groundwater depletion could diminish freshwater supplies further and exacerbate drought conditions, with implications for the future.
“Monitoring terrestrial water storage is a crucial piece of the puzzle,” he added. “Understanding where that water is moving will aid us in predicting future droughts, floods, and the availability of water resources.”
Urban trees exhibit greater drought resilience than those in parks due to their access to leaking pipes, providing a unique water source.
During prolonged dry spells, trees in park settings experience greater decreases in water levels and sap flow compared to those on streets, although the underlying reasons were previously not well understood.
To delve deeper, Andre Poilier from the University of Quebec in Montreal, Canada, and his team studied trunk samples from both Norwegian and silver maple trees (Acer Platanoides and Acer Saccharinum) located in nearby parks and city streets. They analyzed various lead isotopes to establish a connection between isotopic levels and the trees’ recent history by examining the unique isotopic variations found in their trunk rings.
While park trees commonly showed lead isotopes linked to air pollution, those on the street displayed isotopic variations corresponding to lead from water pipes made of metals sourced from ancient local sediments.
Typically, a maple tree requires approximately 50 liters of water each day. Since street trees cannot rely on the rainwater that collects on concrete and drains into city sewer systems, Poilier suggests that the most plausible explanation lies in Montreal’s leaky pipes, which lose an estimated 500 million liters of water daily.
“The bright side is that planting trees along city streets can continue, as they thrive better than those in parks,” Poilier noted while presenting his findings at the Goldschmidt Geochemical Conference in Prague, Czech Republic, on July 8th.
“The sheer volume of water utilized by these urban trees is astonishing and contradicts conventional wisdom. I believe this will enhance the health of park trees as well,” commented Gabriel Filipeli from Indiana University.
IT is a warehouse resembling the size of 12 football pitches, poised to provide essential employment and development opportunities in the city of Caucaia, northeastern Brazil. Yet, the shelves remain empty. This extensive facility is set to transform into a data center, as designated by TikTok, になったんです。 English: The first thing you can do is to find the best one to do. part of a 5.5 billion Reais (7.3 billion pounds) project aimed at expanding the global data center infrastructure.
With the increasing demand for supercomputer facilities, Brazil is attracting an array of high-tech companies, buoyed by the AI boom. The selection of Caucaia is strategic. Submarine cables carry data from Fortaleza, the nearby capital of Ceará, to various continents. Proximity to these cables enhances traffic capacity and reduces latency—the response time across the Internet network.
Additionally, Caucaia is home to the Pecém EPZ, where businesses can produce goods and services for export, benefiting from various tax incentives and streamlined bureaucratic processes.
However, data from Brazil’s disaster digital atlas and integrated disaster information system indicate that Caucaia is also prone to extreme weather events, including drought and heavy rainfall.
Between 2003 and 2024, the city experienced drought-related emergency conditions declared at least once. In 2019, around 10,000 residents were impacted by water shortages. The digital atlas of disasters shows that as reservoirs depleted, water quality diminished, leading to crop failures and challenges in access to basic food supplies.
Data centers consume vast amounts of energy and water to keep supercomputers cool. Nevertheless, public agencies are promoting green construction in drought-affected areas. Caucaia is part of a broader trend.
According to the Digital Disaster Atlas, five of the 22 planned data centers are situated in cities that have faced repeated drought and water scarcity since 2003.
So far, China’s social networks have not been mentioned in Caucaia’s permit application. However, in February, the chief of staff for the state government, Chagas Vieira, confirmed in an interview with local radio stations that discussions were ongoing with Chinese firms, and representatives from TikTok and its parent company ByteDance met with senior officials, including the Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, Geraldo Alckmin.
ByteDance has been approached for comments.
The truck will deliver water to Caucaia, a city facing repeated problems with drinking water supply. Photo: Marília Camelo/The Guardian
The project is officially led by Casa dos Ventos, a Brazilian wind energy firm that has invested in the data center sector. Mario Araripe, the company’s founder and president, announced last year that he aims to attract major global technology companies like Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft to fill the facility with computers.
Casa dos Ventos has already secured one of the three required licenses from the state of Ceará. According to the state’s Environmental Supervision (SEMACE), the project received a license for “30m³/day water consumption in closed circuits supplied by Artesian Well.” Specific details have been withheld for commercial confidentiality.
Casa dos Ventos claims it is “committed to transforming Porto do Pecém into a complex of technological innovation and energy transition.”
Projects requiring significant energy, such as data centers, are required to obtain special permission from the Brazilian government. As of 2024, at least seven of the 21 approvals granted by the Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Energy were linked to data centers.
Casa dos Ventos is also responsible for another data center project currently under state review in Campo Redondo, Rio Grande do Norte, a region that has experienced drought for 14 out of the last 21 years. During the water crisis in 2022, local governments sought federal aid, and water trucks were dispatched to address the demand.
A similar situation is unfolding in Igaporanga, Bahia, where a Brazilian renewable energy company plans to establish two data centers. The city has been in a state of emergency due to drought conditions for 12 of the years between 2003 and 2022. In 2021, about 5,500 people faced rural water shortages.
Transparency regarding water usage by data centers under construction in these areas is lacking. Companies have not disclosed this information voluntarily, and the government has withheld technical documents for licensing, citing commercial confidentiality.
In early April, the National Electric Power System Operator (ONS) denied requests for access to the grid for Casa dos Ventos, citing concerns for grid stability. Consequently, the Ministry of Mines and Energy requested a recalculation to assess potential grid adjustments.
bIG tech firms acknowledge their water consumption in water-scarce areas heightened by AI requirements. The 2024 Sustainability Report details that Microsoft reported that 42% of its water usage originates in regions experiencing water stress. Similarly, Google stated that in the same year, 15% of its water consumption fell in areas marked by “high water scarcity.”
Data centers utilize a large volume of water to prevent overheating in computers and machines. However, some water may evaporate, potentially exacerbating the local climate crisis where they are located. As AI technologies evolve, the demand for processing power increases, leading to heightened energy and cooling requirements. Consequently, water and energy consumption are projected to rise.
Workers at a Data Center in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Such facilities utilize considerable amounts of water for cooling machinery. Photo: Jeff Botega
The International Energy Agency projects a significant increase in data center energy consumption to double, reaching 945,000 GWh by 2030—equivalent to Japan’s annual energy consumption. Countries like Brazil will account for approximately 5% of this growth within that timeframe.
Water consumption is expected to surge. Researchers from the University of California, Riverside, and the University of Texas at Arlington estimate that global AI demand will require between 4.2 billion and 6.6 billion cubic meters of water by 2027, surpassing half of the UK’s annual water usage.
However, Shaolei Ren, a researcher from UC Riverside and co-author of the study, highlights a crucial distinction between consumption (water extracted from the system) and loss (water evaporated).
“Residential users generally do not withdraw significant amounts of water, but data centers often consume between 60% and 80%,” notes Ren, meaning that much water is lost.
Data centers can be cooled through two approaches: one is air conditioning, a widely adopted method for various facilities, while the second is utilizing water.
The outskirts of Caucaia, where inadequate water became unsuitable for urban consumption after reservoirs were depleted in 2019. Photo: Marília Camelo/The Guardian
One method involves recycling or reusing water but incorporates fans and radiators within closed systems, resembling car engine technologies. Alternatively, a cooling tower might use evaporation to expel heat from heated water, allowing the return of cold water to the system. The final method involves misting water into the air, increasing humidity and reducing temperature.
Nonetheless, these methods are not without inefficiencies. “Both evaporation and misting lead to water loss,” asserts Emilio Franceschini, an associate professor at ABC Federal University.
A small data center with a capacity of 1MW consumes around 25.5 million liters of water annually, with an estimated 1% (255,000 liters) lost to evaporation.
In Pecém, alternatives to extracting water include purchasing desalinated seawater or recycled water from Fortaleza.
It falls upon the state government to grant water concessions to data centers as part of the environmental licensing process.
rOnildo Mastroianni, technical director at Esplar, an NGO with a 50-year presence in Ceará, argues that projects demanding high water consumption in semi-arid areas are misguided. “It’s simply pushing for increased dryness,” he asserts.
Mastroianni cautions that such projects could alter the local hydrological basin, which may weaken fragile ecosystems, like the Caatinga, and heighten food insecurity due to rural water scarcity. He indicates that representatives from local NGOs and various Kilombola and Indigenous communities were not included in project discussions.
Due to water stress, many communities have constructed reservoirs to secure water supply during drought periods. Photo: Marília Camelo/The Guardian
Other Latin American nations are also witnessing a surge in the data center industry. Chile has launched 22 data centers in the Santiago region alone. In December, the government announced a National Plan to establish 30 additional projects, projected to place the country at medium to high levels of water stress by 2040, signifying decreased water availability.
In Chile, both governmental and corporate bodies are facing escalating opposition. In 2019, Google disclosed plans for its second data center in Santiago, which sparked estimates from the activist organization MOSACAT indicating the project would extract 700 million liters of water annually.
Following a wave of protests, a Santiago court reviewed the project. By early 2024, the court halted Google’s assessments concerning environmental impacts, pending further evaluation.
Among those advocating against the project was Tania Rodriguez of MOSACAT, who lamented, “That turned into extractivism,” she said in interviews with other outlets. “We will become everyone’s backyards.”
New Jersey’s governor issued a drought warning Wednesday.
State officials said the state is experiencing the driest conditions in nearly 120 years, prompting an increase in wildfires.
The extreme drought is part of a widespread drought plaguing the Northeast.
New Jersey’s governor issued a drought warning Wednesday, stating that the state could impose mandatory water restrictions if conditions worsen.
A record dry spell has left New Jersey at its driest in nearly 120 years, leading to a significant rise in wildfires, as reported by state officials during a news conference.
The New Jersey State Forest Fire Department has battled 537 fires that have scorched thousands of acres since early October, according to Governor Phil Murphy. This number is 500 more fires than the same period last year.
Murphy urged residents to heed the drought warnings seriously and voluntarily decrease their water usage.
“Each of us needs to do everything we can to conserve water,” he emphasized.
Tim Eustace, executive director of the North Jersey Regional Water Commission, criticized the state for not declaring a drought emergency, which usually restricts non-essential outdoor water use.
“I’ve always been against using potable water to water lawns. It’s a terrible waste of resources,” Eustace stated.
His commission supplies water to around a third of New Jersey, with the main reservoir, Wanaque Reservoir, at 45% capacity as of Wednesday.
Monday at Wanaque Reservoir in Ringwood, New Jersey. Ted Shafley/Associated Press
The state’s other major reservoir, Manasquan Reservoir, is at 51% of its capacity, while the Passaic River, a vital drinking water source, is at about 14% of its normal capacity, sufficient to meet demand, officials assured.
New Jersey American Water, serving approximately 2.9 million people in the state, issued conservation notices to customers on Wednesday. Mark McDonough, president of New Jersey American Water, clarified that the notice was described as “mandatory” to convey urgency but is not enforceable against violators.
“I’d like to limit movement if possible, but I don’t have the authority to issue tickets or inspect people’s lawns,” McDonough remarked. “If we can get our customers to focus on saving water, we can make a significant impact.”
Murphy mentioned that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast predicts even drier weather ahead. Forecasting seasonal outlook Temperatures are higher than average, with precipitation chances remaining unchanged regardless of above or below average levels.
The dry conditions affecting New Jersey are part of a broader drought across the Northeast. In October, cities like Newark, New Jersey. Wilmington, Delaware. And Norfolk, Virginia, registered no rainfall at all. Southeast Regional Climate Center collects precipitation data nationwide. Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., set records for the most consecutive days without measurable precipitation.
Throughout the United States, October was declared One of the driest months on record according to NOAA. US Drought Monitor Data shows over half of the continental United States is facing some level of drought, with 56% of the Northeast impacted.
State climatologist Dave Robinson noted that New Jersey usually receives rainfall evenly over several months. However, some regions have not seen any measurable rainfall for 40 days, a first in nearly 150 years of record-keeping.
“We’ve experienced longer droughts before, but we’ve never encountered anything as exceptional as this prolonged dry period,” Robinson remarked.
He highlighted that New Jersey typically experiences heavy rainfall in October due to hurricanes, remnants of tropical cyclones, or nor’easters forming in the mid-Atlantic region.
Both weather patterns were absent this fall, with a ridge of high pressure dominating New Jersey and other Northeastern areas for weeks.
“There’s no significant storm to break through this ridge. It’s been a slow and frustrating process,” Robinson explained. “There are indications that the central part of the country, which has been relatively dry, is starting to see more moisture. …It appears to be gradually shifting eastward.”
November has marked the 12th consecutive month of above-average temperatures in New Jersey. Atmospheric warming can exacerbate droughts and heighten the chances of extreme rainfall.
“With a warmer climate system, there’s more energy that can hold moisture in the atmosphere. …If we can’t access that moisture source, a warmer climate will worsen dryness and lead to more severe droughts,” Robinson stated. “The system has become more volatile.”
Given New Jersey’s dry spell since mid-August, it would require several months of above-average, if not considerably above, rainfall to alleviate the drought, estimated Sean LaTourette, director of the state Department of Environmental Protection.
Some areas received about a quarter of an inch of rain on Sunday, but Murphy remarked that it was “far from adequate.”
Firefighters respond to a forest fire in Evesham, New Jersey, on November 6th. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (via AP)
Finally, a state of drought emergency was instated in New Jersey. The last time a drought warning was issued was in 2016, lasting over six months, LaTourette indicated.
Greg McLaughlin, New Jersey Forest and Fire Department’s Office of Forests and Natural Lands manager, mentioned that the current condition measures 748 out of 800 on a scale for forest floor dryness.
“These numbers are unprecedented in the 118-year history of the Forest Fire Service,” McLaughlin remarked. “The impact of this dryness on wildfires cannot be overstated.”
The Jennings Creek Wildfire along the New York-New Jersey border continued burning on Wednesday, with containment at 30%. Over 5,000 acres were destroyed in both states. An 18-year-old New York park worker lost his life to a falling tree while battling a fire in Orange County, New York, last Saturday.
“We sincerely appreciate his dedication and willingness to protect the residents of New York and New Jersey from these deadly fires,” Murphy expressed.
Wildfires in the tropics caused a slight increase in CO2 emissions, but most of that was due to burning fossil fuels
Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images
Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2024 are expected to exceed last year's record levels, dashing hopes that global warming emissions will peak this year.
“Reducing emissions is more urgent than ever, and the only way to do that is by significantly reducing fossil fuel emissions,” he said. Pierre Friedlingstein At the University of Exeter, UK.
This is according to the latest global carbon budget. reporta preliminary calculation of CO2 emissions to date, including projections until the end of the year, prepared by Friedlingstein and his colleagues. The announcement was made at the ongoing COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, where countries aim to set new fiscal targets to combat climate change.
Last year, some researchers predicted a peak in emissions in 2024, but the report found that anthropogenic CO2 emissions would reach a record high of 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, up 2% from the 2023 record. It has been revealed that the number is expected to increase. Almost 90% of that total is made up of emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The remainder is primarily due to land changes caused by deforestation and wildfires.
Fossil fuel emissions will grow at 0.8 percent, half as much as in 2023, but still higher than the average growth rate over the past decade. “[The slower rate] This is a good sign, but we are still miles away from reaching our goal,” says Friedlingstein.
Despite a long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land-use change also increased this year, mainly due to drought-induced wildfires in the tropics. Part of this increase is also due to the collapse of terrestrial sinks of carbon in 2023, which typically removes about a quarter of annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This absorption decreased by more than 40 percent last year and in early 2024 as global temperatures soared due to El Niño.
“2023 is an amazing demonstration of what can happen in a warmer world when El Niño droughts and fires combine to create record global temperatures,” he says. pep canadel He is a researcher at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Agency and co-author of this report. “Taken all together, the world's forests contributed almost a third less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere last year than they did in the previous decade.”
This will also increase emissions in 2024, but researchers expect this “land carbon sink” to largely recover as the warming effects of El Niño fade. “This is not a long-term collapse,” Friedlingstein says.
The report reveals that China's CO2 emissions, which emit almost a third of the world's total emissions, are projected to increase by only 0.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. . Canadel said this forecast of China's emissions has a large margin of error, so they may actually be stable or even declining. India's emissions have also slowed down from last year, increasing by just under 5%. In the US and EU, emissions continued to decline, albeit at a much slower pace than last year.
Increased demand for electricity to power air conditioners due to higher temperatures is also a key reason why fossil fuel emissions will continue to rise despite a massive build-up of renewable energy in 2024. He says: Neil Grant At the German think tank Climate Analytics. Whether it's from electric vehicles, data centers or manufacturing, “most people seem to be a little surprised by the level of electricity demand this year,” he says.
If emissions continue at this level, the world will exceed its carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within six years, and exceed its budget to limit warming to 2°C within 27 years, the report says. Pointed out. .
“We have to accelerate, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” Candell said. “Climate change is like a slippery slope and we can keep falling. We need to slam on the brakes as hard as we can to avoid falling.”
Much of the Northeast is in drought after an unusually dry and warm start to autumn.
Nationally, October was one of the driest months on record.
Fires are burning in New Jersey and Connecticut, and the fire danger remains high.
The dryness and unseasonably warm weather in the Northeast has pushed much of the region into drought, sparking wildfires in New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
October ended as one of the driest months on record in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Precipitation was particularly low in the northeast.
Cities such as Philadelphia. Newark, New Jersey. Wilmington, Delaware. And Norfolk, Virginia, recorded no rain at all in October. Southeast Regional Climate Center collects precipitation data from more than 1,400 weather stations across the country. Several cities, including Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., set new records for consecutive days without any measurable precipitation in October.
Firefighters and wildfire in Evesham, New Jersey, Wednesday, November 6, 2024 New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (via AP)
“This is an area that is not typically associated with drought,” said Benjamin Cook, a part-time researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. “It's not very common for really severe drought conditions to last this long.”
The drought continues into the first week of November, leaving much of the region in a “severe” drought. US Drought Monitor tracks the national situation and publishes weekly color-coded maps showing the extent and intensity of the drought.
The Drought Monitor's latest maps released Thursday showed drought conditions extending from Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York to Massachusetts and Maine. Dry conditions have intensified in some states, with parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland currently in “extreme” drought.
“Extreme drought is basically a once-in-25-year type of drought,” says Brian, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and one of the mapmakers for the U.S. Drought Monitor.・Mr. Fuchs says. .
Drought watches and warnings have been issued in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, asking people to voluntarily reduce their water use.
Part of the region's dry and warmer-than-usual weather is due to a strong high-pressure system that has remained over much of the country for several weeks. In the Northeast, Great Lakes, and South, temperatures were 15 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for late October and early November.
More than half of the continental United States is experiencing some degree of drought. That includes 56% of the Northeast, according to the Drought Monitor.
One of the shelters used to simulate extreme drought. It is located at the Central Plains Experiment Station in Colorado.
melinda smith
An experiment conducted at 100 sites around the world shows that during extreme droughts, grassland productivity declines much more than we thought. This finding suggests that plants may be struggling to cope with more frequent and severe droughts that are expected to result from climate change.
melinda smith Researchers at Colorado State University have designed a shelter that can be placed on top of land and topped with a piece of plastic to deflect some of the rain away from the vegetation below.
Working with other researchers around the world, Smith and her team were able to install such shelters in 100 grassland or shrubland locations across six continents.
For each site, Smith said, the team aimed to recreate conditions that would be considered extreme drought in the area, the type of conditions that occur once every 100 years. For example, in areas of Europe with high rainfall, more plastic strips are placed on roofs compared to drier areas to better simulate drought.
A year later, the researchers discovered that while some experiments were successful in reproducing drought conditions, others were unsuccessful because certain areas had higher than average rainfall.
In the 44 sites that experienced extreme drought, plant growth decreased by 38% in grasslands and 21% in shrublands. “That was huge,” Smith said, adding that the reduction in plant growth was much more severe than the researchers had observed in previous studies.
They also found that arid regions with low biodiversity are particularly vulnerable to drought. “Dry places are already at their limit,” Smith said. “Their systems don't have a lot of buffers to deal with it.”
Smith hopes these insights can improve global climate models that have previously underestimated the role of drought in the carbon cycle.
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