New theories suggest that the likelihood of intelligent life existing beyond Earth is higher

In 1983, theoretical physicist Brandon Carter said that the time it took for humans to evolve on Earth compared to the total lifespan of the Sun was essentially unlikely to have been our evolutionary origin. We concluded that observers like humans who are comparable to the above are very rare. . In a new study, scientists from Pennsylvania, the University of Munich and the University of Rochester have critically reevaluated the core assumptions of Carter's “hard step” theory through the lens of historical geologics. Specifically, they propose alternative theories with no harsh steps, and the evolutionary specificity required for human origin can be explained through mechanisms other than essentially non-performance. Furthermore, if the surface environment of the Earth initially did not reach the specific important intermediate steps necessary for human existence, as well as human life, the timing of human origin would be a habitability surrounding the history of the Earth. Controlled by continuous openings in the new global environment window.

The new theory proposes that humans may represent potential consequences of biological and planetary evolution. Image credit: Fernando Ribas.

“This is a huge change in how we think about life history,” said Professor Jennifer McCalady of Pennsylvania.

“It suggests that the evolution of complex life may be less about the interaction between luck and its environment, and I am to understand our origins and our place in the universe. paves the path for exciting new research in our quest.”

“The 'hard step' model, originally developed by Brandon Carter in 1983, took humans to evolve on Earth compared to the total lifespan of the sun, so our evolutionary origins are largely due to the fact that He claims it is unlikely. Human beings are extremely low across the globe. ”

In a new study, Professor Makaradi and her colleagues say that the Earth's environment is initially incapable of parasitic life in many forms, and only important evolutionary steps when the Earth's environment reaches a state of “tolerant” claimed that it was possible.

“For example, because complex animal life requires a certain level of oxygen in the atmosphere, oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere through photosynthesis is the oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere through microorganisms and bacteria, and oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere through planets. It was a natural evolutionary step, said Dr. Dan Mills, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Munich.

“We argue that intelligent life may not need a series of lucky breaks.”

“Humans did not evolve “early” or “slowly” in the history of the Earth, but when conditions were right, they “on time.” ”

“It's probably just a matter of time, and while other planets can probably achieve these conditions more quickly than Earth, other planets may take even longer.”

The central prediction of the “hard step” theory is that, based on Carter's, steps such as the origin of life, the development of complex cells, and the emergence of human intelligence, if there are no other civilizations, then the other civilizations are He says there is little that exists in the universe. The interpretation of the total lifespan of the Sun is 10 billion years, and the age of the Earth is about 5 billion years old.

In a new study, the authors have the ability to originate human origin by continuous openings in the window of habitability to the history of the Earth, driven by changes in nutritional availability, sea surface temperature, ocean salinity levels, and oxygen levels. I suggested that the timing could be explained. atmosphere.

Given all the interaction factors, the Earth has only just become kind to humanity recently. It is simply a natural result of workplace conditions.

“We believe we need to use geological time scales rather than predicting based on the lifespan of the sun, because it takes time for the atmosphere and landscape to change,” Penn State said. said Professor Jason Wright.

“These are the normal timescales on Earth. When life evolves with planets, they evolve at the planet's pace on the planet's timescale.”

Team's paper It was published in the journal this month Advances in science.

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Daniel B. Mills et al. 2025. A reevaluation of the “hard step” model for the evolution of intellectual life. Advances in science 11(7); doi:10.1126/sciadv.ads5698

Source: www.sci.news

Calculating the Likelihood of Intelligent Life in the Universe and Beyond: A New Theoretical Model

In 1961, American astrophysicist and astrobiologist Dr. Frank Drake multiplied several factors to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way that could make their presence known to humans. I devised an equation. More than 60 years later, astrophysicists have created a different model that focuses instead on conditions created by the accelerating expansion of the universe and the amount of stars forming. This expansion is thought to be caused by dark energy, which makes up more than two-thirds of the universe.

Artistic impression of the multiverse. Image credit: Jaime Salcido / EAGLE collaboration.

“Understanding dark energy and its impact on our universe is one of the biggest challenges in cosmology and fundamental physics,” said Dr. Daniele Solini, a researcher at Durham University’s Institute for Computational Cosmology. .

“The parameters that govern our universe, such as the density of dark energy, may explain our own existence.”

Because stars are a prerequisite for the emergence of life as we know it, the team’s new model predicts the probability of intelligent life arising in our universe, and in a hypothetical multiverse scenario of different universes. could be used to estimate the

The new study does not attempt to calculate the absolute number of observers (i.e. intelligent life) in the universe, but instead calculates the relative probability that a randomly chosen observer will inhabit a universe with certain properties. will be considered.

It concludes that a typical observer would expect to experience significantly greater densities of dark energy than seen in our Universe. This suggests that its ingredients make it a rare and unusual case in the multiverse.

The approach presented in this paper involves calculating the rate at which ordinary matter is converted into stars for different dark energy densities throughout the history of the universe.

Models predict that this proportion would be about 27% in a universe where star formation is most efficient, compared to 23% in our universe.

This means that we do not live in a hypothetical universe where intelligent life has the highest probability of forming.

In other words, according to the model, the values ​​of dark energy density that we observe in the Universe do not maximize the potential for life.

“Surprisingly, we found that even fairly high dark energy densities can still coexist with life. This suggests that we may not be living in the most likely universe. ,” Dr. Solini said.

The model could help scientists understand how different densities of dark energy affect the structure of the universe and the conditions for life to develop there.

Dark energy causes the universe to expand faster, balancing the pull of gravity and creating a universe that is capable of both expansion and structure formation.

But for life to develop, there needs to be areas where matter can aggregate to form stars and planets, and conditions need to remain stable for billions of years to allow life to evolve.

Importantly, this study shows that the astrophysics of star formation and the evolution of the large-scale structure of the universe combine in subtle ways to determine the optimal value of dark energy density required for the generation of intelligent life. It suggests that.

“We will use this model to investigate the emergence of life across different universes and reinterpret some fundamental questions we ask ourselves about our own universe,” said Lucas Lombreiser, professor at the University of Geneva. It will be interesting to see if there is a need.”

of study Published in Royal Astronomical Society Monthly Notices.

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Daniele Solini others. 2024. Influence of the cosmological constant on past and future star formation. MNRAS 535 (2): 1449-1474;doi: 10.1093/mnras/stae2236

Source: www.sci.news

How intelligent were the Tyrannosaurus and other giant theropod dinosaurs?

Large theropods were as intelligent as reptiles, but not as smart as apes, according to a new study led by paleontologists at the University of Bristol.



tyrannosaurus rex Holotype specimen at the Carnegie Museum of Natural History in Pittsburgh, USA. Image credit: Scott Robert Anselmo / CC BY-SA 3.0.

in study Vanderbilt University paleontologist Suzana Herculano-Hausel announced last year that dinosaurs tyrannosaurus It had a huge number of neurons and was much more intelligent than expected.

She argued that these high numbers of neurons could directly inform intelligence, metabolism, and life history. tyrannosaurus In some habits they were more like monkeys.

Theropod dinosaurs of North America from the Late Cretaceous tyrannosaurus “It is an apex predator, one of the largest, heaviest, and most powerful (in terms of bite force) terrestrial carnivores ever known,” said Dr. Heidi George from the University of Bristol.

“Recently, Dr. Herculano Hausel proposed that we should add primate-level intelligence to great apes. tyrannosaurusAlready an impressive predation history, based on high estimates of the number of neurons in the forebrain. ”

“This conclusion arose from the paradigm that neurological variables inferred from endocasts can be used to infer metabolic parameters, behavior, and lifespan of fossil species.”

In the new study, Dr. George and his co-authors took a closer look at the techniques used to predict both brain size and number of neurons in dinosaur brains.

They found that previous assumptions about the size of dinosaur brains and the number of neurons they contained were unreliable.

This new study follows decades of analysis in which paleontologists and biologists studied the size and anatomy of dinosaur brains and used these data to infer behavior and lifestyle.

Information about dinosaur brains comes not only from the shape of the brain cavity itself, but also from its mineral fillings, called endocasts.

The authors found that their brain size, particularly the size of the forebrain, was overestimated, and thus the number of neurons was also overestimated.

Furthermore, we show that estimates of neuron number are not a reliable guide to intelligence.

“To reliably reconstruct the biology of a long-extinct species, researchers need to examine multiple lines of evidence, including skeletal anatomy, bone histology, the behavior of living relatives, and trace fossils.” the researchers said.

“To determine the intelligence of dinosaurs and other extinct animals, it's best to use a wealth of evidence, from gross anatomy to fossilized footprints, rather than relying solely on estimates of neuron counts,” Dr. Heidi said. added.

“We argue that it is not a good idea to predict the intelligence of extinct species when only the number of neurons reconstructed from endocasts is sufficient,” said Dr. Kai Kasper, a paleontologist at Heinrich Heine University. Ta.

“Neuron number is not a good predictor of cognitive ability, and using neuron number to predict intelligence in long-extinct species can lead to very misleading interpretations,” Mikel Crusafont Catalan Paleontologist said Dr. Ornella Bertrand, a paleontologist at the Institute.

“The possibility is that tyrannosaurus The possibility that they were as intelligent as baboons is both fascinating and frightening, and has the potential to transform the way we view our past,” said Dr Darren Naish, a palaeontologist at the University of Southampton. .

“But our study shows how all the data we have contradicts this idea. They were more like smart giant crocodiles, which was just as fascinating. ”

of result Published in anatomical records.

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Kai R. Kasper other.How clever! tyrannosaurus• Examine claims about the extraordinary cognitive abilities of dinosaurs and the application of neuron number estimation in paleontological research. anatomical records, published online on April 26, 2024. doi: 10.1002/ar.25459

Source: www.sci.news