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Food Supply Shocks from Iran War: Inevitable Impact and Potential Escalation

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Food Prices Expected to Surge in Late 2023

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World food prices are reaching unprecedented levels, comparable to the energy crisis of the 1970s. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating inflation, with rising costs for fuel, fertilizers, and pesticides. Are we on the brink of the worst food shock in history?

Many farmers are likely to decrease planting due to soaring costs, possibly leading to food shortages and increased prices later this year. How severe the situation becomes will depend on various factors, including the duration of the conflict and the impact of extreme weather events linked to climate change on crop yields.

“This could escalate into a major crisis for the impoverished and food-insecure,” warns Matin Kaim, a researcher at the University of Bonn, Germany.

“We’re facing a perfect storm. The resolution isn’t straightforward,” states Tim Benton of the University of Leeds, UK. “Even a resolution tomorrow may not yield immediate results, as seen with the post-COVID-19 recovery.”

After decades of decline since the 1970s, global food prices have climbed in real terms since the 2000s, nearing their historic peaks. Climate change intensifies this issue with increasing heatwaves, floods, and storms negatively affecting crop yields, resulting in global food shocks like those observed in 2010. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have also led to significant price spikes.

Rising biofuel production is contributing to increased food prices, with over 5% of food calories now converted into fuel. Some governments have acknowledged the need to reduce food-based biofuels; however, a report suggests that by 2030, 92% of biofuels will still rely on food sources.

Currently, due to US and Israeli actions against Iran, there’s a significant depletion of essential raw materials for food production and distribution. Fuel, particularly diesel, is crucial as it powers agricultural equipment and transports food. Consequently, higher oil prices directly influence supermarket prices.

Fertilizers, crucial for global food supply, are also facing shortages. “If we halted the use of mineral fertilizers globally, it could lead to widespread hunger,” notes Keim.

Nitrogen fertilizers are produced using hydrogen and atmospheric nitrogen to create ammonia, relying heavily on natural gas for hydrogen and electricity. Qatar, with its abundant natural gas, is a significant fertilizer producer, supplying about 15% of the global urea market. However, due to the conflict, this urea cannot traverse the Strait of Hormuz, thus complicating supply chains.

Countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, which produce substantial amounts of their fertilizers from Persian Gulf gas, are facing factory shutdowns due to war-related damages. Additionally, Australia’s main fertilizer facilities are currently non-operational due to an incident.

Consequently, nitrogen fertilizer prices have already surged by over 33% and could escalate further. “If fertilizer costs double, food prices could easily rise by 20 to 30%,” warns Keim.

Beyond urea, Gulf states like Qatar and the UAE are also major sulfur fertilizer producers, essential for various regions and for converting mined phosphates into usable forms for plants.

Urea Fertilizer Readied for Export at Yantai Port, China

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Pesticides, essential for safeguarding global food production, are also influenced by rising prices tied to naphtha costs, a fossil fuel derivative used in food packaging.

“In March alone, three of the world’s key naphtha export terminals were targeted in drone attacks,” notes Jide Tijani of Argus Media, UK. These include Russia’s Ustiluga port and facilities in Qatar and the UAE.

The consequences of these developments will likely lead to escalated food prices and a range of other commodities in the coming months and years. “The number of affected markets is staggering,” remarks Jason Hill at the University of Minnesota.

Farmers face increasing costs for fuel, fertilizers, and pesticides, all of which affect their planting decisions. Uncertainties regarding profitability may lead farmers to switch crops or abstain from planting altogether. Speculation and profiteering could further compound price rises, according to Jennifer Clapp at the University of Waterloo, Canada.

How severe could the situation become? The dramatic increases in food prices in the 1970s were partly due to dwindling global food reserves, warns Clapp. While reserves are currently sufficient, prolonged conflict could drastically alter this, especially if abnormal weather caused by climate change negatively affects crop yields.

“There is a substantial chance this could escalate into a crisis of equal or greater magnitude,” Clapp asserts. “Significant climate change could worsen the situation further.”

“Food prices are causing distress across the globe, disproportionately affecting lower-income populations who spend a significant portion of their income on food,” notes Keim.

Additionally, international aid is already diminishing and will likely be further curtailed. “Rising food prices often coincide with increased demand for aid, yet the available funding diminishes as costs escalate,” shares Benton.

This rising tide of food prices may lead to social unrest in the most severely impacted regions, as explained by Paul Behrens at Oxford University. “We’ve observed instability in times of rising food costs throughout history.”

Strategies Nations Can Implement to Mitigate Food Shocks

There are strategies to alleviate the situation. “In Europe, around 15 million loaves of bread are produced daily for biofuel,” points out Behrens, calling it an illogical method for energy generation.

As biofuel production primarily hinges on state incentives, governments can curtail its production to divert more food to markets. “This would make a significant difference,” remarks Keim.

He advocates for an international consensus that limits biofuel production from food sources when prices surge. Unfortunately, such actions have not materialized in past crises.

Instead, nations are likely to ramp up biofuel production to counteract rising fuel prices, which could significantly affect food pricing, according to Keim.

Initiatives are already underway; the United States recently announced an increase in the bioethanol proportion in fuels to mitigate price hikes. Australia is also contemplating similar measures.

However, ramping up food-based biofuels won’t substantially impact fuel prices but will dramatically influence food prices. For instance, a third of corn produced in the U.S. is converted into bioethanol, contributing minimally to gasoline supplies but having a disproportionate effect on food availability, asserts Hill.

“Enhancing ethanol in gasoline harkens back to the 1990s—a policy that fails to address air pollution or climate change,” critiques Simon Donner at the University of British Columbia. “Higher oil prices should instead be seen as an opportunity to transition towards cleaner, more advanced technologies like electric vehicles.”

The global community is unlikely to want a repeat of this supply shock. “This situation poses a significant challenge, raising questions on how to build a more resilient system going forward,” Hill emphasizes.

Accelerating the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles could leave economies vulnerable to oil price shocks. Furthermore, there’s a need to transform the chemical industry to reduce fossil fuel dependence.

In terms of nitrogen fertilizers, this means generating them from electricity rather than natural gas. “It’s feasible to produce ammonia with zero greenhouse gas emissions,” states Ryan. “The technology exists; the challenge is harnessing enough renewable energy.”

Demand for electricity is surging, especially for data centers supporting AI technology. This scenario is unlikely to improve unless there’s a significant decline in AI development.

In the meantime, there are several ways to optimize fertilizer use. Excessive fertilizer application in many regions leads to runoff into water systems or the release of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Techniques to mitigate overuse include precision agriculture, crop rotation with legumes, and the development of crops that utilize fertilizers more effectively.

“We need to promote a more sustainable farming system,” Keim concludes, highlighting that sustainability does not automatically mean organic practices. A shift to organic farming could dramatically elevate food prices and contribute to deforestation, given the need for additional farmland.

“A fundamental change in our food system is imperative,” asserts Behrens. This includes modifying our dietary habits—favoring protein sources such as beans and legumes over grain-fed meat, which require significant fertilizer input. “This transition could yield substantial benefits,” he emphasizes.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Understanding Black Rain in Iran: Causes and Dangers Explained

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US-Israeli attack on oil storage facility in Tehran

US-Israeli attack ignites oil facility in Tehran, resulting in substantial fires and black smoke on March 8.

Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

On March 8, black smoke enveloped northern Iran as U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continued, leading to alarming health concerns for civilians in Tehran.

What Happened?

In the early hours of March 8, U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes targeting Iranian oil facilities for the first time since the conflict erupted, igniting massive fires in four oil storage centers and an oil transfer hub in Tehran and Alborz province.

As flames illuminated the night sky, thick black smoke descended over the city, with ash and soot blanketing surfaces. Alarmingly, residents reported dark rain falling, raising concerns after a prolonged drought. Authorities alerted locals about potential acid rain, as many experienced sore throats and burning eyes.

The black rain likely originated from smoke inhaled during these fires. When moisture falls into such polluted air, it can carry harmful particulates to the ground.

This scenario poses significant environmental and health risks, as scientists remain uncertain about the smoke’s chemical makeup, according to Anna Hansell from the University of Leicester.

Composition of the Black Rain

In contrast to regular gasoline, the oil involved was likely less refined and created a more complex mixture of harmful particles when burned. This smoke could contain toxic substances, according to Hansell.

Key components potentially include burnt carbon, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, sulfur, and nitrogen compounds. The combustion process releases sulfur and nitrogen oxides that, when combined with moisture, can produce acid rain.

This environmental disaster could generate smog levels far more severe than those experienced in mid-20th century London. “The scale of this event is concerning,” Hansell remarked.

Secondary pollutants from the strike—such as fragments of concrete and plastic—could contribute to the overall toxicity of the atmosphere.

Health Risks

If this black rain contaminates water supplies, it could lead to gastrointestinal issues like abdominal pain and diarrhea. Furthermore, the acid rain’s effects on skin and eyes are alarming, as already reported by some locals.

However, respiratory health may be the greatest danger. Inhalation of fine particulate matter poses serious health risks, as the composition becomes less important than the quantity inhaled.

“Skin contact with rain can be washed off, but inhaling smoke can be far more dangerous,” Hansell cautioned. “Fine particles can permeate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, increasing risks for chronic diseases.”

Accumulation of toxins in the environment may also contaminate local food sources, leading to long-term health threats.

Regional Impact

While larger particles may settle quickly, smaller harmful particles can travel vast distances via wind currents, potentially affecting air quality as far away as Washington, D.C. As winds shift, smoke from the fire could drift into neighboring countries as well.

It is advised that residents of Iran remain indoors to minimize exposure. If outdoors, wearing masks and goggles is recommended to prevent acid rain exposure.

Individuals should be vigilant about drinking water quality, seeking alternatives if they notice unusual tastes or dark particles.

Other countries should be alert to potential fallout, and health officials will likely issue warnings regarding air quality if necessary.

“The magnitude of environmental devastation doesn’t acknowledge borders,” Hansell warned. “What contaminates one area could migrate, affecting many.”}

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Why the US is Deploying Inexpensive Iranian Drones Against Iran: An Analysis

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The Shahed-136 Drone: Iranian Innovation and U.S. Replication

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The Shahed-136 drone, a cost-effective attack drone developed by Iran’s Shahed Aviation Industries, is now being deployed against advanced U.S. military technologies. Despite the U.S. military’s reliance on high-tech weaponry, why are they countering this drone powered by a motorcycle engine?

Measuring 2.6 meters in length, the Shahed-136 can carry a payload of 15 kilograms over approximately 2,500 kilometers. It achieves a speed of around 185 km/h, which is significantly slower than conventional cruise missiles or bomb-laden aircraft, yet its price point is notably low—approximately $50,000 each.

Currently, hundreds of Shahed drones are utilized by Russia in its offensive operations against Ukraine. Countering them necessitates a comprehensive air defense strategy, incorporating fighter jets, ground-based missiles, and interceptor drones. These drones are also employed by various groups, including Houthi forces in Yemen.

In recent conflicts, Iran has deployed Shahed drones as part of their military response against U.S. and Israeli forces. In an interesting twist, the U.S. military introduced the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), a product made by Arizona-based Speckleworks. This system is a reverse-engineered version of the Shahed-136, illustrating how Iran’s design is now weaponized against them.

LUCAS is versatile and can be enhanced with reconnaissance gear or warheads for ground strikes. The FLM136 is reportedly named as a homage to the Shahed 136 from which it was inspired.

The U.S. military’s reverse-engineering of the Shahed-136 followed the capture of Iranian-backed militia units in Iraq and Syria. A test launch from a U.S. Navy ship was successfully carried out last year.

Professor Anthony King from the University of Exeter posits that inexpensive attack drones like the Shahed serve as a form of “graffiti bug,” reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s V-1 flying bombs used during World War II.

These economical devices can be mass-produced and deployed in large quantities, overwhelming enemy defenses until they crumble, or diverting significant assets and rendering prolonged combat infeasible. This strategic approach leaves opponents vulnerable to subsequent offensives.

“We are intercepting them with weapons that are significantly more expensive than Shahed, and often the targets of these attacks are cheaper than the defenses we employ,” stated King. “This dynamic transforms the economic landscape of warfare in fascinating ways.”

Interestingly, it has been suggested that Iran may have drawn inspiration from a Cold War-era project, where Germany and the United States collaborated to create a device aimed at neutralizing Soviet radar systems, referred to as the Dornier Die Drone Anti-Radar.

Ian Muirhead, a professor at Manchester University and a former military member, suggests that while Shahed drones will not replace advanced drones or manned aircraft, they are increasingly making an appearance in warfare. Western military forces are now recognizing the effectiveness of such weaponry, inspired by lessons from the Ukraine conflict.

“Complex and costly modern weaponry can prove inefficient in extensive conflicts, particularly when resources are stretched thin,” Muirhead remarked. “Deploying thousands of inexpensive drones can swiftly overwhelm defenses using unfriendly firepower.”

“It’s purely an economic discussion. If defense costs exceed attack costs, the balance of power shifts,” Muirhead concluded.

Article modified on March 3, 2026

Updated the description of the V-1 flying bomb.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Strategies in the Iran-Israel Conflict: Internet Blackouts, Cryptocurrency Destruction, and Home Surveillance

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The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is not only a confrontation involving combatants, drones, and explosive devices but is also intensifying in the digital domain. Both nations have a rich history of engaging in cyber warfare. A significant point of contention is Iran’s nuclear initiative, which was famously attacked by the sophisticated Stuxnet worm—one of the early forms of cyber sabotage aimed at causing real-world damage.

In response to perceived threats, Iran recently enacted a near-total internet blackout. My colleague Johanna Bouyan provides insights:

According to CloudFlare, a cybersecurity firm, Iranian internet traffic is “currently averaging around 97% or lower compared to levels from a week ago.”

The reduction in internet speeds follows claims from an anti-Iranian hacking group, possibly linked to Israel, stating they had breached Iran’s state-owned bank, Sepa. A government spokesperson from Iran, Fateme Mohajelani, indicated on Twitter/X that officials were limiting internet access to thwart further cyber intrusion.

On Wednesday, concerns in Iran were validated. My colleague Dan Mirmo reports:

Hacking groups associated with Israel are purportedly behind a $900 million (£67 million) heist at Iran’s cryptocurrency exchange.

The group calling itself Gonjeshke Dalande, known for its predatory tactics, announced it had successfully hacked the Novitex exchange, mere days after asserting it had destroyed data at Iran’s state-owned bank.

Elliptic, a consultancy specializing in cryptocurrency crime, reported identifying over $900 million in cryptocurrency transfers to hacker wallets from Nobitex. The hackers effectively “burn” these assets, storing them in “vanity addresses” that lack encryption keys, thereby rendering them inaccessible, according to Elliptic.

Iran has attempted to retaliate; however, much like the broader conflict, Israel’s strikes appear to be more effective and disruptive. Israeli authorities have warned citizens that Iran is seizing internet-connected home security cameras to gather real-time intelligence. Bloomberg reports. Cybersecurity experts assert that Hamas and Russian hackers have employed similar tactics. While home security cameras may represent a new front in the cyber conflict, they lack the capability to interfere with central banking systems, as Israel has done.

By the end of Friday, Iran seemed to have lifted internet restrictions for some users, as reported by The New York Times. However, even those with limited access felt their connections were precarious.

City of Love? PornHub Takes a Stand Against Paris Over Children’s Age Verification Online

Photo: Nikolas Kokovlis/Nurphoto/Rex/Shutterstock

PornHub, widely regarded as the most visited adult content site globally, resumed operations in France after a three-week blackout.

The platform’s owner, Iro, suspended access in protest against a new French regulation requiring adult websites to verify user ages using credit cards or identification. Instead of implementing the age restriction, Pornhub opted to withdraw access for approximately 70 million users.

Following this, Pornhub returned online after French courts temporarily put the law on hold while reviewing its compliance with the European Union’s constitution. However, the dispute between Paris and Pornhub signifies a growing global dialogue around online age verification.

This debate occupies a challenging intersection of differing online regulations aimed at protecting children and upholding privacy and freedom of expression—an area fraught with complexity, even in the U.S., where digital regulations often aim for practicality.

As of now, over 20 states have enacted age verification laws affecting adult content websites. Pornhub has been forced to block access in 17 of these states. Texas, which boasts a population of 31 million, serves as a prime example. The state legislature passed a law in September 2023 mandating ID verification for accessing adult sites, causing Pornhub to go dark in Texas by March—greeting users with a message calling the law “invalid, accidental, dangerous.” Meanwhile, while access is still allowed in Louisiana under similar laws, site traffic has plummeted by 80%. This serves as a barrier to ID requirements. The U.S. Supreme Court is considering whether such laws infringe on constitutional rights to free speech.

Research on U.S. law indicates that these laws are ineffective in achieving their stated goals. Online search data suggests that individuals in states with age verification laws are searching for non-compliant adult sites to bypass age restrictions and using VPNs to disguise their locations from internet service providers.

Other battlegrounds extending beyond age verification include restrictions on social media for underage users. Australia, which has enacted a ban on minors accessing social media, is currently testing various enforcement technologies but has found them lacking.

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The UK is emerging as the next battleground. New online safety legislation mandating age verification for adult content will take effect in July. Will London mirror Paris, or follow Texas?

Dissecting the Trump Phone

Composite: Guardian/Getty Images/Trump Mobile/Trump Watch/eBay

Last week, Donald Trump introduced a mobile phone brand named “T1,” elegantly designed with his name and emblazoned with an American flag. It is especially marketed in Alabama, California, and Florida, with a monthly service plan priced at $47.45.

However, the T1 phones face significant challenges in delivering on their promises. The manufacturer will be subject to similar market pressures as other manufacturers, where both inexpensive labor and specialized electronics expertise are largely based in China, not the U.S. This partly explains why Apple products are labeled “Designed in California.”

Looking forward, analysts predict that Trump’s proposed tariffs could cause smartphone prices to soar by double or even triple digits. Currently, the U.S. lacks a developed electronics supply chain capable of fully assembling mobile phones domestically. In April, analysts at UBS cautioned that the cost of an iPhone 16 Pro Max with 256GB might potentially rise by 79%, from $1,199 to approximately $2,150, if a total tariff of 145% were implemented. Apple seemed to acknowledge this forecast by expediting the shipment of nearly $2 billion worth of iPhones to the U.S. before tariffs on China were instituted.

An example of a mobile phone that has been assembled in the U.S., known as the Liberty Phone, is operational but not entirely manufactured there. Trump’s offerings could potentially cost around four times more than $2,000. The Liberty Phones source certain components domestically, but still require screens, batteries, and cameras that are manufactured overseas. According to the Wall Street Journal, the CEO of Purism, the company that manufactures these devices, stated that its operating system can run only basic applications like calculators and web browsers.

Although the specs for the Liberty Phone are inferior compared to the Trump T1, its price will be steeper, and the likelihood of the T1 reaching the market as promised appears slim. Many of the anticipated technical features of the T1 come at a price point nearly double that of what Trump has claimed. A comprehensive list compiled by The Verge suggests that Chinese firms might manufacture phones under Trump’s brand label.

Eric Trump, who co-manages this venture alongside his brother Donald Jr., admitted that the initial batch of T1 phones was not made in the U.S. “Eventually, every phone will be produced in the United States,” Eric Trump reassured. He added last week. I understand.

Read more: Why can’t mobile phones be repaired in the U.S. to avoid Trump’s tariffs?

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Source: www.theguardian.com

Could Israeli Airstrikes Trigger a Nuclear Incident in Iran?

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Iran’s Arak Heavy Water Nuclear Facility was damaged by Israeli bombing

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Israel’s assault regarding Iran’s nuclear activities has raised concerns about potential radioactive incidents, according to experts, including the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). New Scientist While there have been reports of radiological and chemical contamination at one nuclear enrichment facility, the overall risk remains low.

Peter Bryant from the University of Liverpool notes that the terms “nuclear” and “radiation” understandably provoke fear, but despite extensive bombings, there have been no reported external leaks as of now.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions trace back to the 1950s, including attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The country pledged to allow IAEA inspections to verify that its energy facilities are not being utilized for weapon production; however, the agency recently issued a report criticizing Iran for failing to comply with non-proliferation obligations. Evidence of uranium traces at certain plants suggests that a covert nuclear weapons program might still be in progress.

Following reports regarding Iranian facilities responsible for uranium enrichment, Israel launched its strikes. Naturally occurring uranium exists in a mixture of three isotopes, but the enriched variant has a greater proportion of uranium-235, which can be used for both electrical generation in reactors and for nuclear arms. Given this dual-purpose potential, Iran has committed to restricting enrichment under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Philip Bleak from the Middlebury International Institute in California points out that the IAEA reports indicate Iran has already accumulated over 400 kilograms of uranium concentrated to 60%. This quantity is adequate for multiple rudimentary nuclear weapons, and Israeli intelligence suggests that the actual figures may be underreported to the IAEA. Even uranium at 60% purity significantly exceeds the requirements for fueling a power plant, implying that Iran harbors intentions to develop nuclear capabilities.

Iran maintains two primary enrichment sites: the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) and the Natanz Nuclear Facility. Israel’s strikes on Natanz resulted in internal radiation leaks; however, according to the IAEA, there have been no signs of external contamination.

In contrast, the Fordow facility remains operational due to its underground location, making it susceptible to destruction only by powerful US munitions. Only a powerful US bomb could destroy it. Former President Donald Trump has indicated he might assess support for Israel in this matter.

The Arak Heavy Water Reactor has also been targeted in bombings; however, it was never commissioned and housed no radioactive substances. If operational, it could have enabled the conversion of uranium into plutonium, a material viable for nuclear weaponry. Additionally, the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center and certain missile sites designed for nuclear weapons launch were also bombed.

Bleak asserts that fresh uranium poses “very modest” health risks irrespective of enrichment levels. “A significant amount must enter your body to have a meaningful impact, similar to what uranium miners experienced,” he explains.

This is why the enrichment facilities targeted in strikes represent minimal risk outside their immediate vicinity, according to Bryant. Moreover, since these plants are built deep underground for resistance against attacks, any radioactive emissions would be further contained. “Uranium fuel can be handled without issue,” states Bryant. “You would need to physically ingest it to face health problems.”

Nonetheless, should a working reactor be targeted and operational for months prior to an attack, it may accumulate “dangerous fission byproducts,” which represent a more significant radiological threat. Bleak warns that if such materials escape, scenarios akin to Chernobyl or Fukushima could arise.

Bryant expresses confidence that such leaks are exceedingly unlikely, attributing this to advancements in reactor design that can withstand heavy bombardments. Furthermore, civilian power plants are not core to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and are unlikely to be prioritized targets for Israel, he says. Bushehr, Iran’s only functioning nuclear power facility, has not been targeted thus far.

Despite assurances from scientific experts, New Scientist reports that IAEA Director Rafael Grossi cautioned earlier this week about the real risks of harm.

“I have consistently stated that we should never attack nuclear facilities, irrespective of the circumstances, as they can pose hazards to both humanity and the environment,” he asserted.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

North Korea and Iran have been found using AI for hacking, Microsoft reveals

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Microsoft announced on Wednesday that adversaries of the United States, primarily Iran and North Korea, and to a lesser extent Russia and China, are starting to take advantage of generative artificial intelligence to launch or coordinate offensive cyber operations.

Microsoft disclosed that it collaborated with business partner OpenAI to identify and prevent numerous threats exploiting the AI technology it developed.

In a blog post, the company stated that these techniques are still in their early stages and are not particularly novel or unique, but they do broaden the capabilities of U.S. rivals to use large-scale language models to infiltrate networks and exert influence, emphasizing the importance of publicly exposing this.

Cybersecurity companies have been using machine learning to detect anomalous behavior within networks for years, but the introduction of OpenAI’s ChatGPT-led large-scale language model has intensified the cat-and-mouse game, as both criminals and aggressive hackers are leveraging it.

Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI is substantial, and the company noted in its announcement on Wednesday that generative AI is anticipated to power malicious social engineering and lead to the development of more advanced deepfakes and voice clones, at a time when disinformation is on the rise and threats to democracy are rampant, with more than 50 countries holding elections in a year.

Microsoft provided examples of how adversaries were using large-scale language models, including the disabling of AI accounts and assets for specific groups.

The North Korean cyber-espionage group known as Kimsky used the model to study foreign think tanks and generate content for spear-phishing hacking campaigns.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps utilized large-scale language models for social engineering, troubleshooting software issues, and researching ways to bypass detection on compromised networks, using phishing emails and accelerated email creation.

The Russian military intelligence unit, Fancy Bear, employed the model to study satellite and radar technology potentially linked to the Ukraine war.

China’s cyber-espionage group known as Aquatic Panda targeted various industries, higher education, and governments from France to Malaysia, with limited exploration of how large-scale language models can enhance technical operations, and another Chinese group, Maverick Panda, interacted with the model to gather information on high-profile individuals and regions.

On another blog, OpenAI announced that its current GPT-4 model chatbots are “limited to malicious cybersecurity tasks beyond what is already achievable with publicly available non-AI-powered tools,” a situation that cybersecurity researchers aim to change.

Jen Easterly, head of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, informed Congress of the growing threat from China and the potential impact of artificial intelligence, stressing the need to develop AI with security in mind.

Amidst concerns about the irresponsible release of large language models, Microsoft and other companies are facing criticism for not taking focused action to address vulnerabilities, which has disappointed some cybersecurity experts who advocate for creating more secure underlying models to counter potential misuse.

Edward Amoroso, a professor at New York University and former AT&T chief security officer, emphasized the increasingly powerful role of AI and large-scale language models as potential weapons in cyber warfare, stating that they ultimately pose a threat to every nation-state.

Source: www.theguardian.com