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The Tampa Bay area experienced record-breaking rain levels from Hurricane Milton, reaching levels not seen in a millennium.

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Hurricane Milton dumped so much rain on parts of Florida’s Tampa Bay area that it was classified as a once-in-1,000-year rainfall event.

The government said 18.31 inches, or more than 1.5 feet, of rain fell in St. Petersburg in the 24 hours the storm made landfall. Precipitation data from the National Weather Service.

This includes a whopping 5.09 inches in one hour from 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM ET. This level is believed to have an approximately 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year.

“This is insane! St. Petersburg reported 5.09 inches of rain in one hour and 9.04 inches in three hours,” said Matthew Cappucci, Atmospheric Scientist and Senior Meteorologist at MyRadar Weather. states.Posted on Wednesday by X. “That’s rarer than a once-in-a-millennium rain event.”

Milton made landfall near Siesta Key as a strong Category 3 storm Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Other significant precipitation amounts across Florida include 14.01 inches in Clearwater Beach, 13.09 inches in Baskin, 11.43 inches in Tampa, and 10.12 inches in Seminole.

Scientists have not yet completed their analysis of the impact on Milton because it takes time to understand the effects of climate change on individual weather events. But in general, experts know that global warming is making storms wetter and more intense.

Research shows that global warming causes sea surface temperatures to rise, which provides extra energy to storms, increasing their speed and intensity. The unusually high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that strengthened hurricanes Milton and Helen are 200 to 500 times more likely to be caused by climate change, according to a study released Wednesday. It is said that

The warmer the atmosphere, the more water it can hold. For every 1 degree Fahrenheit increase in Earth’s temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 3% to 4% more water. Therefore, storms can dump large amounts of rain on land.

Milton’s heavy rains quickly flooded roads, homes, and other structures along the Florida Gulf Coast. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood emergency for Tampa and St. Petersburg, which lasted until 2:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

Forecasters expected heavy rain as Milton moved into Florida. Hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center said it expected 6 to 12 inches of rain to fall across the central and northern Florida peninsula through Thursday, with local rainfall totals up to 18 inches.

The east coast of Florida is also experiencing rain. Preliminary measurements Wednesday showed 7 inches of precipitation in St. Augustine, 7.38 inches in Titusville, and 3.05 inches in Daytona Beach, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Milton has returned to the ocean, but additional rain and flooding is expected to continue into parts of eastern and central Florida through Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Dennis Chow

Dennis Chow is a science and space reporter for NBC News.

Kathryn Plosif and Joe Murphy contributed.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Hurricane Milton Threatens Florida with Life-Threatening Storm Surge

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A storm surge is when hurricane force winds push shallow water towards the coast, causing an abnormal rise in water levels during a storm. Factors such as wind, the angle of approach of the storm, ocean floor shape, and storm’s low pressure all play a role in the intensity of the surge.

Storm surge is a deadly threat from hurricanes as it can quickly flood coastal areas and penetrate far inland.

West Florida’s shallow coastline along the Gulf of Mexico is particularly vulnerable to storm surges due to its gentle slopes and the continental shelf being close to the surface, making it easier for water to rise.

Climate change-induced rising sea levels further increase the risk of flooding in the region, and the impending Hurricane Milton has the potential to cause significant damage.

While the exact landing location of Milton is uncertain, small changes in its path can have a significant impact in areas like Tampa Bay. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the storm’s movements and advising residents to be prepared for potential evacuation orders.

Historically, Tampa Bay is at high risk of storm surges due to its underwater topography acting as a funnel for floodwaters. The city’s urban development has also increased the vulnerability of its population and coastal structures to storm-related threats.

As Milton approaches Florida, its size may increase while its winds could weaken, affecting the height of storm surges. Local officials are urging residents to follow evacuation orders to ensure their safety.

Storm surge is a serious concern, particularly with major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher. Even lower-ranking storms can produce devastating storm surges, as seen with hurricanes like Katrina and Ike in the past.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton is indicative of a climate trend

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The Milton, which is expected to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday evening, is sailing through unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures in much of the ocean basin were well above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, with some parts of the bay up to 4 degrees warmer than normal. Data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Rising temperatures in the Gulf also strengthened Hurricane Helen, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region less than two weeks later.

2023 study published in journal scientific report We find that Atlantic tropical cyclones are about 29% more likely to develop rapidly from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1971 to 1990.

Scientists have documented many recent examples of rapid intensification, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Idalia last year. 2019 Hurricane Dorian’s peak wind speed increased from 150 mph to 185 mph in nine hours, and 2022 Hurricane Ian experienced two rapid intensifications before making landfall in Florida.

Although this process is well documented, rapid intensification is difficult to predict. Although scientists know the ingredients needed to activate this phenomenon, it remains difficult to predict exactly how and when it will occur, and its exact triggers.

Milton is expected to weaken slightly before making landfall, but the storm’s impacts will be severe. A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, with potentially life-threatening storm surges of up to 12 feet expected. As many as 15 million people are under flood watches across the state.

Dennis Chow

Dennis Chou is a science and space reporter for NBC News.

Source: www.nbcnews.com