This autumn, New England’s renowned leaf spectacle may not extend as long as Leaf Peepers hope. Following a summer marked by drought and fluctuating rainfall, experts anticipate that colors will emerge early, shine brightly, and fade more quickly than usual.

Timing is not just essential for Instagram-worthy shots. Annually, millions flock to New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine to hike, drive, and explore under the vibrant canopy, contributing an estimated $8 billion to the local economy, according to the US Forest Service.

However, this year, scientists say the iconic display is less predictable, with sporadic bursts of color replacing the usual weeks of vibrant waves of red, orange, and gold.

“Bright, Short, Early” season

Jim Salge, an autumn leaves predictor for Yankee magazine, forecasts the transition to be “bright, short, and fast.” Some leaves have already turned brown before showcasing their vibrant hues.

“Traditionally, we observe changes moving northward, inland, and in coastal areas, but as trees become stressed and change rapidly, we expect to see more patchwork patterns this year,” Sarji noted.

When trees do not receive adequate water, they become “stressed,” impairing the process of photosynthesis, which converts sunlight into energy. Conversely, excessive water can suffocate roots.

For optimal viewing, I suggest heading to the western parts of Maine, southern New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts, as well as the White Mountains in Vermont.

Peak colors are expected to shift to Vermont, New Hampshire, and Western Maine by early October, with higher elevations predicted to peak about a week earlier than usual.

“The silver lining about New England is that if you miss it, you can always head further south,” he said. “If it’s too early, go north or ascend to the mountains.”

Travelers can keep track of leaf changes with tools like the Peak leaf map by Yankee Magazine and I Love New York’s weekly reports.

Why are the leaves changing?

Nonetheless, climate change has generally intensified over recent decades, and this year’s dry summer has accelerated the timeline.

“Ideally, our forests would benefit from a mild rain event evenly spread throughout the year,” explained Mukundrao, assistant professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “However, a series of extreme storms, followed by dry spells, makes it too rapid for the soil to absorb the water.”

Vibrant leaf colors thrive on warm days and cool nights, but stressful conditions for trees can hasten leaf drop. Stressed or unhealthy trees often exhibit shorter transitions and dull foliage, Rao mentioned. In contrast, urban trees typically retain color longer, as buildings and pavement hold heat while streetlights provide extra illumination.

Additional threats include fungal diseases from heavy spring rains and diseases affecting beech trees.

“We are witnessing invasive insects altering forests and decimating various tree species, alongside invasive plants disrupting native growth and patterns,” Sarji stated.

Tracking changes

To make predictions, Salge depends on weather forecasts and phenotype data, which involves tracking seasonal life cycles.

Notably, Polly’s Pancake Parlor in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire, has been monitoring local foliage since 1975. Records indicate that peak colors appeared for two weeks in late September that year; however, in 2024, it shifted to just two days in early October.

The US National Phenology Network gathers and shares observations from across the country. Its Nature’s Notebook app invites volunteers to document seasonal changes, bolstering over 200 scientific studies, according to director Theresa Crimmins.

“We have a general understanding of nature,” Crimmins remarked. “However, when focusing on specific species in particular locations, there remains much we do not comprehend.”

The revamped version of the app, launching this spring, allows users to upload photos for even one-time observations.

“More people can now become citizen scientists,” Sarji commented. “Their perspectives on the world contribute valuable data.”