This year, from the first civilian moon landing (see “Elon Musk-led private missions boom, space is on sale in 2024”) to the first pig kidney transplant into a living human. It will be remembered for many pioneering events. Unfortunately, another dark first looms in 2024. Although the numbers will not be officially confirmed until next month, it is very likely that this will be the first year in which the totemic climate goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming is exceeded. (see “For the first time in 2024 reached 1.5°C, accelerating climate disruption.”)

Let’s clarify what this means. This number is generally considered to refer to a 20-year average, so it does not violate the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s most important climate change treaty. Under the agreement, each country commits to limiting long-term temperature rise to below 1.5°C. Nor is this a sign that the world is doomed and that we should give up all hope of combating climate change. Because if we lower temperatures even a little bit, billions of people will be better off than they would be if we didn’t do so. But reaching this level of warming, even in just one year (so far), is undoubtedly a global failure.

Breaking through 1.5°C also comes as the world enters a new and uncertain phase of climate change. As we have reported throughout the year, extreme warming in 2024 (which will only be matched by 2023) has scientists increasingly concerned about changes in major ocean currents, leading to unexplained levels of warming. They are desperately trying to understand what’s going on with the decline of Antarctic sea ice.

If you start the new year with a feeling of anxiety, you will inevitably feel pessimistic, but that may not be a bad thing. Next year will mark 10 years since the Paris Agreement came into force, and even then it was clear that the 1.5°C target had reached its achievable limits. As we wrote in our year-end leader at the time: “An odd call to action. The goal of capping global warming at 1.5°C looks almost completely unattainable.” In fact, greenhouse gas emissions Reshaping the modern world to stop and achieve net-zero emissions is the most ambitious goal ever set by humanity.

Given the scale of the challenges we face, such ambition is essential, but it is not sufficient. It’s easy to set ambitious and optimistic goals like the Paris Agreement, and politicians can line up to take pictures, smile and shake hands. It feels warm and fluffy.

However, to achieve such a goal, pessimism must prevail. You can’t take good photos if you’re pessimistic. The question is, “What happens if we fail?” and “What if we are wrong?” – Issues to be addressed include grappling with deep uncertainties in the green transition, whether technological, social or economic. Failure to do so will lead to failure.

There are lessons to be learned from success in 2024. Space engineers and surgeons alike tend to assume mistakes when considering the complexity of moon landings and complex surgeries. To alleviate this, they use a simple tool: the Humble Checklist. By identifying points of failure and taking steps to avoid them, you greatly increase your chances of success.

Although it makes less sense to have a “climate checklist” given that we are talking about ongoing global processes rather than a single operation or space mission, the underlying spirit still applies. Masu. One of the major failings is the annual United Nations climate change talks. At the 29th COP Summit held in Azerbaijan this year, organizers hailed fossil fuels as “God’s gift.”

COP30, scheduled to be held in Belem, Brazil next November, will be an opportunity to reset attitudes. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is already making noise in this direction, promising a “COP to change direction,” but will he be able to make it happen? Perhaps the most powerful message he can send is to take to the stage, stand aside unsmiling world leaders with clear plans to do better, and publicly acknowledge the failures of the COP process so far. That’s probably true. However, Santa doesn’t necessarily grant your wishes.

A degree of repentance and pessimism could also help with another problem that is quietly brewing in 2024: the imminent threat of an avian influenza pandemic. ). The H5N1 virus has spread to U.S. dairy herds despite minimal surveillance and mitigation efforts by U.S. health officials. As a result, the number of people infected there has also increased, reaching more than 50 people at the time of our reporting.

The virus has not yet adapted well to humans and is not known to be transmitted from person to person so far, but random mutations may change the situation with each new infection. increases. Optimistically rolling the dice and hoping for a double six is ​​not good health policy. In an ideal world, the United States would already be planning for the possibility of a pandemic and sit back and watch it never materialize. We do not live in an ideal world as President-elect Donald Trump endorses vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services. That means other countries will need to come up with their own plans. This is the only rational response to uncertainty.

Obviously, this pessimism doesn’t stem from any particular holiday spirit. However, through these two issues, new scientist From the science of believing in Santa (see ‘Believing in Santa Claus doesn’t guarantee children will behave well at Christmas’) to the quest for the world’s largest snowflake (see ‘The plan to create the world’s snowflake’), there lies a world of festive feasts. The biggest snowflake was humbled by nature”).

Looking ahead to next year, I’d like to thank researchers and companies who are developing new ways to tackle climate change, from sucking carbon dioxide out of the air to genetically modifying food to make it more environmentally friendly. Raise a glass of water too. For more information, see the next issue’s 2025 preview). And we hope that the uncertainty caused by this year’s climate news will be a catalyst for change.