Volcanic Eruptions Could Have Played a Role in Triggering the French Revolution

Depiction of the uprising preceding the French Revolution

Stefano Bianchetti/Corbis via Getty Images

Intense volcanic eruptions along with alterations in solar activity may have triggered some of the most notable rebellions throughout history, including the French Revolution.

It has long been recognized that extreme environmental events like drought, deforestation, and temperature fluctuations can lead to societal upheavals, agricultural failures, and outbreaks of disease.

One of the most significant climate events in recent history, known as the Little Ice Age, affected the northern hemisphere—particularly Europe and North America—between 1250 and 1860.

David Kaniewski, from the University of Toulouse in France, along with his colleagues, examined historical records to identify 140 significant rebellions that occurred during this timeframe.

For their research, they cross-referenced records of social unrest with data on solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and climatic shifts. They aimed to uncover any connections between these factors and the extreme weather phenomena associated with the Little Ice Age, particularly in relation to grain and bread prices.

“We observed spikes of unrest that align with environmental changes and the challenges they impose on society,” Kaniewski stated.

The research team found that the coldest periods during the Little Ice Age coincided with a noticeable rise in the frequency of rebellions.

“Major volcanic eruptions that temporarily lowered temperatures led to statistically significant levels of social unrest,” Kaniewski remarked. “Furthermore, sunspot records, which track solar activity, showed that lower sunspot counts associated with cooler temperatures correlated with increased uprisings.”

During temperature declines of between 0.6°C and 0.7°C, whether from volcanic activity or reduced solar spots, there was an average of 0.72 rebellions per year, mirroring a reduction in rainfall.

However, the most significant correlation was found between rebellion frequency and the prices of wheat and barley, with sudden price increases resulting in 1.16 additional rebellions per year.

Kaniewski asserts that when harvests fail, hunger escalates, prices soar, and social unrest is likely to follow. Nevertheless, the research also indicated that some nations, such as England, which also faced weather patterns during this period, managed to adapt more effectively than others.

Researchers propose that while climate does not directly incite rebellion, it sets off a chain of events that can lead to food shortages and rising grain prices, which in turn motivate people to resist authorities.

“Food scarcity is akin to a dry forest after a prolonged drought,” Kaniewski explained. “A political or social grievance can spark rebellion.”

Following the eruption of the Laki Volcano in Iceland in June 1783, which raised sulfur dioxide levels in the atmosphere, a significant climate cooling occurred. The research revealed that from 1788 to 1798, the frequency of rebellions reached an average of 1.4 per year, including events leading up to the French Revolution.

Kaniewski emphasizes that understanding the Little Ice Age can offer insights into the challenges humanity faces in predicting future climatic changes. “Today’s climate change may prove to be much more devastating.”

Tim Flannery from the Australian Museum in Sydney remarked that, as illustrated by the study, the link between climate change, rebellion, and revolution reflects correlation rather than causation.

“People can descend into chaos during times of stress, leading to migration, suicide, and other behaviors, including rebellion,” Flannery noted. “While I’m not dismissing the findings, I believe we require a deeper analysis for more progress beyond our previous understandings.”

Jeremy Moss from the University of New South Wales in Sydney highlighted that the direct impacts are only one aspect of the issue, given the vulnerabilities experienced by people and natural systems due to climate change. “Often, it is equally critical to consider how both individuals and natural systems are made vulnerable and how we respond to those vulnerabilities,” Moss stated.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Is the AI Bubble on the Verge of Bursting, Potentially Triggering a Stock Market Crash? | Philip Inman

An increasing anxiety surrounds the possibility of a stock market collapse. The rise from minor dips to significant drops casts shadows as the initial excitement surrounding artificial intelligence begins to wane.

In recent weeks, U.S. tech stocks have faced a downward trend, suggesting that a stream of disappointing figures could become commonplace before the end of the month.

We may be looking at a scenario reminiscent of 2000, where the burst of the dot-com bubble could lead to a grim situation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is among those policymakers responsible for guarding against impending crises. At the annual Jackson Hole meeting with central bank governors in Wyoming, he sought to reassure worried minds.

He expressed that the Fed is concerned about increasing inflation and is prepared to assist the economy in overcoming the uncertainties brought on by Donald Trump’s actions and the global economic slowdown.

With STAGFLATION looming, there’s a genuine threat as the U.S. economy decelerates and inflation rises. Powell has indicated to stock markets that interest rates may decrease, relieving pressure on companies dependent on debt.

The stock market draws Powell’s attention even more than usual, given the extent of U.S. personal pensions invested in publicly traded companies. Specifically, tech stocks are heavily investing in AI, despite not yet achieving a single dollar in profit.

A recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology uncovered that 95% of companies investing in generative AI have not yet realized financial returns.

This news follows remarks from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, who cautioned that some company valuations appeared “unusual.”

“We are happy to announce Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at the currency trading firm Swissquote,” remarked Ipek Ozkardeskaya. Altman’s comments served as a wake-up call for investors, likely triggering a sharp decline in various high-flying stocks.

Earlier this week, stock values for data mining and surveillance companies with substantial government contracts dropped almost 10%. AI chip manufacturer Nvidia declined by more than 3%, while other AI-related stocks such as ARM, Oracle, and AMD also suffered losses.

Most pension funds are heavily invested in these tech firms, along with established names like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Meta (Facebook).

Should fund managers consider withdrawing? That’s likely not a prudent choice.

The magnitude of investments in AI by companies like Google and Meta is vast, and while the technology’s potential is subject to much speculation, white-collar workers are already seeing expected benefits in their daily tasks.

Daily reports and suggestions for utilizing AI in presentation preparation are commonplace (though they come with the unspoken caveat that job openings remain unaddressed).

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Microsoft Co-Pilot and numerous other “assistance” AI tools are available.

If this trend has already gained momentum across various economic sectors, a soft landing may await the tech industry, despite the elimination of some unstable, speculative enterprises.

In fact, a recession could facilitate large corporations in seizing opportunities from struggling competitors and leveraging new, affordable technological innovations.

The ratio of Palantir’s price to acquisition is over 500. Many investors are anxious even at a 50 ratio. Nvidia’s price to return ratio stands at 56.

As stock prices align with realistic revenue prospects, the Palantir/Nvidia ratio might decline; however, even in the harshest stock market turbulence, companies are unlikely to go bankrupt.

Trump remains a significant proponent, paving the way for AI to delve deeper into corporate operations. His advocacy for cryptocurrencies, along with his support for deregulated social media platforms, reflects his ideological leanings.

AI may pose potential dangers to humanity, given that politicians and regulators lag behind the notable figures and tech giants championing AI.

However, for investors, AI is not an entity that will simply vanish, crash, or evade downfall.

Source: www.theguardian.com

Understanding Sunburn: The Role of UV Rays in Triggering Inflammation

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Taking refuge in the shade is a simple way to steer clear of harmful UV rays from the sun.

Paul Biggins/Alamy

Since ancient Egyptian times, individuals have sought ways to shield their skin from the sun, as over a century ago, we recognized the link between ultraviolet (UV) light and skin injuries, including burns and cancers. Yet, there remains some uncertainty regarding the most effective methods to evade sunburn, how to remedy it, and whether each occurrence escalates the chances of developing cancer. It’s beneficial to grasp the cellular dynamics of tanning.

“Sunburn is an inflammatory response,” explains Leslie Rhodes from the University of Manchester, UK. UV rays inflict damage to proteins, fats, and DNA in skin cells located in the epidermis, triggering a cascade of inflammatory reactions resulting in redness, swelling, pain, and peeling.

Though UVB radiation is chiefly responsible for this damage, UVA rays, which have longer wavelengths, penetrate the skin more deeply. “Typically, UVB is approximately 1,000 times more effective than UVA for sunburning,” states Antony Young from King’s College London.

In reaction to UV injury, skin cells emit inflammatory molecules that enlarge blood vessels in the dermis, the layer of skin beneath the epidermis. Within hours, this increased blood circulation facilitates the influx of immune cells from the bloodstream into the skin, heightening inflammation.

For individuals with lighter skin tones, this augmented blood flow may cause sun-damaged skin to appear pink or red, while those with darker skin might notice skin changes in various shades including red, gray, brown, and black. The enhanced blood supply also results in greater fluid leakage from blood vessels to the skin, leading to swelling. Both swelling and inflammatory molecules activate the nerves, rendering the tanned skin hot and painful.

In extreme cases, blisters may form if patches of epidermal cells become severely damaged and begin self-destructing. As these dead patches detach from the underlying layer, the resulting spaces fill with liquid, creating a foamy structure within the skin.

How does tanned skin heal?

According to Rhodes, “A mild tan will diminish more rapidly than a severe burn if the effects persist beyond 72 hours.”

Healing initiates when skin immune cells start generating anti-inflammatory molecules a few days post UV exposure. “It’s a self-resolving inflammation,” Rhodes notes. “The various molecules and cells transition over time from pro-inflammatory to anti-inflammatory states.” Consequently, blood vessels cease to dilate, and the redness, swelling, and pain gradually subside.

Stem cells situated at the base of the epidermis accelerate healing by producing new skin cells at an increased rate. These cells replace the damaged ones, often shedding or peeling off in large sheets to facilitate growth. “You always shed skin, but UV damage accelerates the conversion of those cells,” says Young.

Regrettably, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that applying after-sun or aloe vera gels can hasten healing of tanned skin, according to Rhodes. Most of these lotions aim to alleviate pain by providing a cooling sensation. Cold showers, cool compresses, and over-the-counter pain relievers like paracetamol (acetaminophen) and ibuprofen may also be beneficial.

What are the long-term effects?

The sunburn subsides as inflammation lessens and damaged surface cells slough off. However, DNA damage to deeper stem cells in the epidermis may leave a lasting legacy.

“DNA damage occurs, and while cells attempt to repair it, their efforts are not flawless,” notes Young. This leads to genetic mutations that accumulate over time in genes governing cell growth and division, resulting in uncontrolled skin cell proliferation, heightening cancer risks.

Numerous studies indicate that experiencing five sunburns within a decade more than doubles the risk of melanoma, a type of skin cancer. However, these findings often rely on individuals’ recollections of their sunburn occurrences, which may not be precise, complicating the accurate assessment of how a single sunburn contributes to skin cancer risk.

What is the best method to prevent sunburn?

The skin pigment melanin encircles skin cell DNA, offering some level of protection from UV damage. Consequently, individuals with darker skin tones face a significantly lower risk of skin cancer compared to those with lighter complexions, though they are not immune to sunburn or DNA damage.

To assess the risk of burning on any given day, monitor the UV index, which measures ultraviolet radiation levels. Rachel Abbott from the University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, advises applying sunscreen if the index reaches 3 or higher. Typically, UV indexes seldom exceed 3 early in the morning, evening, or between October and March in the UK. Nonetheless, UV rays are more intense near the equator and may necessitate sunscreen application at any time. Fortunately, free apps provide local UV index information. “I use one daily,” Abbott shares.

Most individuals don’t apply sunscreen with the thickness utilized in testing—2 milligrams per square centimeter—making an SPF 50 sunscreen a wise default choice, according to Young.

Nevertheless, one of the most effective strategies to prevent sunburn is to avoid direct sunlight when it is highest in the sky. In the UK, this window is between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., while in the US, it generally extends from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. During this time, sunlight takes a shorter route through the atmosphere, allowing more UVB radiation to reach the skin. When outdoors, donning a hat and long-sleeved clothing can further diminish the risk.

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Source: www.newscientist.com