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El Niño Has Arrived: What You Need to Know About Potential Disasters

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Prepare for extreme weather events including intense heat, drought, and flooding—it’s officially El Niño season. The National Weather Service reported on Thursday.

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NWS models indicate this El Niño event could rank among the most powerful recorded.

“There is a 63% likelihood of a very strong El Niño from November to January, potentially marking one of the largest events in history,” said Ariel Cohen, meteorologist with the NWS in Los Angeles, during a press conference at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California. “We are already witnessing sustained warm temperatures.”

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that leads to elevated surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This increase is linked with a rise in global average temperatures, exacerbating climate change impacts. Typically, it is associated with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and increased hurricane activity in the Pacific.

In the U.S., El Niño’s effects peak in winter, altering the usual jet stream flow that influences Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, pushing the jet stream southward.

This year, the Pacific Northwest faces drought conditions following a dry winter with lower snowfall. Conversely, southern states may experience unusually wet winters, leading to flooding.

El Niño can trigger powerful ocean heatwaves, disrupting marine ecosystems and causing mass fish mortality, along with bringing tropical fish species into coastal areas.

Andrew Rising, research oceanographer at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, noted that two marine heatwaves have already impacted the Pacific. One is near California’s coastline, while another is occurring offshore.

Though not directly caused by El Niño, NOAA models indicate that ocean temperatures in the Pacific are expected to rise more rapidly this fall, intensifying ongoing heatwaves, according to Liesing.

“For marine life, the duration of heat exposure is critical,” Rising explained. “After a previous heat wave in Southern California, we’re about to face another due to El Niño.”

Past prolonged marine heatwaves have reduced plankton, essential to the food web, leading to harmful algae blooms that produce neurotoxins detrimental to marine life and increasing whale entanglements as they come closer to shore.

Rising highlighted that while some species might thrive during heatwaves, such as jellyfish and certain rockfish, many others face dire consequences.

In 2015, an exceptional marine heatwave known as “the Blob” caused ocean temperatures to soar by approximately 7°F, severely impacting marine ecosystems. Sea lions, seals, baleen whales, and seabirds perished due to food scarcity and increased algal toxins, according to Liesing.

The Blob significantly disrupted fisheries worth millions on the West Coast, leading to instances of Pyrosome proliferation—a jelly-like organism clogging fishing nets.

Rising noted that the back-to-back heatwaves experienced in 2015 were more severe than those anticipated this year.

Another indicator of El Niño may involve unusual fish sightings along the West Coast.

“These events may attract unique visitors,” explained Nate Jarosz, vice president of animal care at the Aquarium of the Pacific. Historical El Niño events have introduced rare species to the California coast, including yellowfin tuna, dolphinfish, and whale sharks.

Shark sightings tend to spike in Southern California during previous heatwaves.

“Warmer waters appeal to shark species such as mako and great white sharks, potentially shifting their ranges further north,” Jarosz added. “During past heatwaves, coastal species, including blues and macaws, have dense populations along the West Coast.”

El Niño typically contributes to rising global temperatures, with climate change as the primary driver behind recent record warmth. The hottest year documented was 2024, with temperatures approximately 2.65°F (1.47°C) above the mid-19th century average, according to NASA. Scientists noted that the El Niño pattern raised temperatures that year, while 2025 recorded as the third warmest year despite the cooling influence of La Niña. (La Niña is the opposite of El Niño.) The past 11 years represent the hottest years on record globally.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Homo Erectus Arrived in East Asia Sooner than Previously Believed

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Recent dating of fossilized skulls from the Early Pleistocene site at Unzen, China, indicates that early Homo erectus inhabited East Asia around 1.77 million years ago. This finding suggests that human history in the region extends back at least 670,000 years, raising intriguing possibilities of rapid migration from Africa.

Reconstruction of Homo erectus.

The earliest known fossil of Homo erectus, dating from 1.78 million to 1.85 million years ago, was discovered in Dmanisi, Georgia (Sakartvelo).

However, the earliest evidence of Homo erectus in further eastern regions has long been a subject of debate.

“Historically, Homo erectus, our ancient ancestor, is believed to have originated in Africa before migrating into Eurasia, but the timing of their arrival in East Asia was previously unclear,” said Dr. Christopher Bay from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

“By utilizing findings from Unzen, along with fossil and burial dating techniques, we can now establish a more precise timeline for when these hominins first appeared in East Asia.”

Researchers employed aluminum-26 (Al-26) and beryllium-10 (Be-10) burial dating methods to determine the ages of the Unzen fossils.

“When cosmic rays penetrate quartz minerals, they produce Al-26 and Be-10 isotopes,” explained Dr. Hua Tu from Shantou University and Nanjing Normal University.

“Isotope production ceases once the material is buried deep underground, leading to radioactive decay.”

“By analyzing the decay rates of aluminum and beryllium isotopes and measuring their proportions in sediment surrounding the fossil, we can accurately estimate how long the fossil has been buried.”

This method is significant because the Al-26/Be-10 dating technique allows for accurate dating of materials dating back as far as 5 million years, unlike traditional carbon-14 dating, which is limited to the last 50,000 years.

Earlier dating attempts estimated the Unzen fossils to be approximately 800,000 to 1.1 million years old.

“Our results fundamentally challenge the long-standing beliefs regarding when the earliest human migrations from Africa to Asia occurred,” noted Dr. Bay.

“Although these findings are pivotal, the exact timeline remains a mystery regarding when Homo erectus first and last appeared in this region.”

“If Homo erectus was not the first species to establish residency in Asia, then alternative species must be considered. The latest chronology from Yunxian is a crucial step in resolving these debates.”

For more details, refer to the findings published in the February 20, 2026, issue of the journal Scientific Advances.

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Hua Tu et al. 2026. The oldest Homo erectus skulls in East Asia: The Unzen site is approximately 1.77 million years old. Scientific Advances 12 (8): eady2270; doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ady2270

Source: www.sci.news

60,000 Years Ago: Ancient Humans Arrived in Australia via Two Distinct Routes

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Ancient humans took two distinct pathways to reach modern Australia.

Helen Farr and Eric Fisher

The timeline and means by which ancient humans made their way to what is now Australia and New Guinea have sparked much debate over the years. Recent genetic studies indicate this event likely occurred at least 60,000 years ago and involved two separate routes.

The regions of modern-day Australia, Tasmania, and New Guinea were once part of Sahul, an ancient continent that emerged during the peak of the ice age when sea levels were significantly lower. Researchers have been keen to understand human migration into these regions as it necessitated navigating dangerous ocean stretches of over 100 kilometers, even during low sea levels.

There are two primary theories regarding the arrival of humans in Sahul: one suggests it took place at least 60,000 years ago, while the other posits a timeline of around 45,000 years ago.

Regarding the approach taken, scientists have put forth two main routes. The southern route is believed to have led to Australia by sea from present-day mainland Southeast Asia through the Sunda region that comprises Malaysia, Indonesia, and Timor. The northern route, however, has more compelling supporting evidence, indicating that humans migrated through the Philippines and Sulawesi to reach modern-day New Guinea, where ancient hominin stone tools dating back millions of years were recently found.

To unravel these migrations, Martin Richards and his colleagues from the University of Huddersfield in the UK examined approximately 2,500 genome sequences from Indigenous Australians, Papua New Guineans, and various populations across the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia.

By analyzing DNA mutation rates and the genetic ties between these populations, the researchers determined that the initial human settlement of Sahul occurred via both routes, but predominantly through the northern pathway.

The question of timing has also been addressed by the researchers. “We traced both dispersals to around the same period, approximately 60,000 years ago,” Richards noted. “This lends support to the ‘long chronology’ of settlement as opposed to the ‘short chronology’ suggesting arrival around 45,000 to 50,000 years ago.”

The findings further illustrate that migration wasn’t a straightforward process, partially based on the discovery of ancient genetic lineages in a 1,700-year-old burial site in Sulawesi. The team also detected evidence indicating that shortly after their arrival on Sahul, coastal and marine communities began migrating towards what we now refer to as the Solomon Islands.

Adam Blum, a professor at Griffith University in Brisbane, asserted that the field of paleogenetics, which investigates history through preserved genetic materials, “seems to adjust the narrative with each new study.”

“We believe this research bolsters the idea that the northern route played a crucial role in the early populating of Australia,” Blum remarked. “Considering the ancient cave art found on Sulawesi, the possibility is rapidly becoming more plausible.”

This remarkable rock artwork has been dated to at least 51,200 years ago, Blum explained. “I have a strong suspicion that individuals were crafting art in Sulawesi’s caves and shelters over 65,000 years ago.”

Peter Veth and his team at the University of Western Australia in Perth assert that even the most conservative estimates from the Majedbebe site in Australia’s Northern Territory suggest human activity traces exceeding 60,000 years. New research further underscores the significance of early human arrival in Sahul.

Discovery Tour: Archaeology and Paleontology

New Scientist frequently features incredible archaeological sites that have transformed our understanding of human history and the dawn of civilization. Why not explore them yourself?

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Source: www.newscientist.com