Tag Archives: forecasts

NOAA Forecasts Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Activity

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The National Marine and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates an active Atlantic hurricane season, expecting more storm activity than usual.

“We’re really monitoring a typical season,” stated Ken Graham, a meteorologist and director of the National Weather Service. “We’re expecting a range of storms with names, from 13 to 19.”

A storm receives its name when wind speeds reach 39 mph or more. The forecast indicates 6 to 10 storms may develop into hurricanes, with wind speeds exceeding 74 mph. NOAA also predicts the occurrence of major hurricanes in category 3 or higher.

While the forecast does not specify whether a hurricane will make landfall, where it will do so, or how many will impact the U.S. coast, it is crucial to prepare now, according to meteorologists.

“This is a good time to gather your supplies and prepare your kit,” Graham advised. “We need to be prepared; currently, there are no long lines for supplies, gas, plywood, or water.”

Graham noted that the above-average forecasts are influenced partly by warmer ocean temperatures, a trend linked to climate change.

“The warm ocean temperatures align with our expectation of a more active season,” he explained during a news conference.

Forecasters have also predicted increased activity from the West African monsoon, suggesting that storms may develop off the African coast and travel across the Atlantic towards the U.S.

This hurricane forecast arrives as many National Weather Service offices face staffing shortages, following staff cuts and voluntary retirement programs initiated during the Trump administration.

In the early months of 2025, nearly 600 personnel have left the National Weather Service, creating gaps in staffing. However, the agency’s leadership assured that the National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, is adequately resourced.

“We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center and prepared to respond; this is our top priority for this administration,” stated NOAA acting manager Laura Grimm.

The nation’s 122 local forecast offices have been significantly affected and face numerous vacancies. Many will be responsible for predicting regional impacts such as flooding and rainfall following hurricanes.

“Our office will ensure that the necessary resources are in place to issue warnings whenever there’s a hurricane threat,” Graham added, “and we are working on solutions to maintain long-term staffing.”

Hurricane season spans from June 1st to November 30th, generally peaking in late summer and early fall.

NOAA’s predictions are largely consistent with forecasts from various external research groups, including those from universities, government bodies, and private organizations.

On average, external research groups have forecasted eight Atlantic hurricanes for 2025. The website, managed by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, monitors and compiles annual forecasts.

Last year, NOAA projected a record hurricane season, which featured 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., including Hurricane Helen, which impacted Florida’s Gulf Coast and caused severe inland flooding in North Carolina, resulting in over 150 fatalities.

Additionally, Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm in Siesta Key, Florida, spawning 46 tornadoes.

Both hurricanes experienced rapid intensification, a phenomenon where a storm strengthens significantly right before hitting land.

This intensification is increasingly likely due to global warming. High sea surface temperatures can enhance rapid strengthening, similar to trends observed recently. A 2023 study found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are about 29% more likely to rapidly intensify from 2001 to 2020 compared to 1971 to 1990.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

GM Revokes Profit Forecasts as Trump’s Tariffs Decrease

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On Tuesday, the automaker announced that General Motors has revised its profit growth forecasts for the year, citing uncertainties stemming from President Trump’s trade policies.

This month, the Trump administration declared a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and plans to impose the same duty on imported parts starting Saturday. Typically, about half of GM’s sales in the U.S. come from vehicles manufactured overseas, primarily in Canada and Mexico.

During a conference call with reporters, Paul Jacobson, the company’s CFO, stated, “We prefer not to discuss figures that are mere speculation regarding the administration’s actions.”

He further emphasized that GM perceives the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs as “material,” indicating a significant influence on the company’s revenue this year.

GM reported a profit of $2.8 billion for the first quarter on Tuesday, reflecting a 7% decrease compared to the prior year. The profits were primarily driven by a 14% drop in earnings before North American interest and taxes, while the international business reported modest gains.

Previously, the company had forecasted net profits of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion for 2025, which would effectively double last year’s net profit of $6 billion.

“We cannot rely on earlier projections,” Jacobson remarked.

Along with the 25% tariff on imported cars, the Trump administration has elevated tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, raising the costs of metals crucial for car manufacturing. Additionally, tariffs on China have increased significantly, with several other countries also facing higher duties, which have temporarily decreased to 10% for a 90-day period.

Jacobson described GM’s discussions with the Trump administration regarding tariffs as “productive,” though he declined to provide further details, stating, “I don’t want to appear as negotiating in public.” He expressed hope for greater clarity on the tariff situation within the automotive sector.

Jacobson noted that the tariffs only became effective on April 3, thus having a negligible effect on the company’s financial results for the first quarter. “We have a solid foundation for our operations,” he reported.

GM has previously stated plans to ramp up production of pickup trucks at its facility located near Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Source: www.nytimes.com

Laid off NOAA employees warn of potential impact on weather forecasts and safety measures

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A scientist with a Ph.D. issues tsunami alerts and serves as a Hurricane Hunting Flight Director. Researchers investigate communities that are prone to flooding during storms.

They were part of over 600 workers who were laid off last week by the Trump administration, resulting in around a 5% reduction in the workforce of the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Kayla Besong, a physical scientist at the Tsunami Warning Center, was one of the affected employees. She played a key role in the safety monitoring team, which was reduced from 12 members to 11. She was responsible for programming a system that assessed the risk to the U.S. coastline and issued alerts accordingly.

The layoffs have raised concerns about the impact on public safety programs and the ability to deal with the increasing frequency of weather disasters due to climate change. Last year alone, NOAA recorded a $27 billion disaster that resulted in 568 deaths in the U.S., marking the second-highest death toll since 1980, accounting for inflation.

Meteorologists are facing challenges and criticism, despite their improving accuracy in predicting weather events. The Trump administration’s decision to cut jobs at NOAA has been met with protests and legal challenges. Experts warn that these cuts threaten progress and could hinder crucial scientific advancements.

NOAA has declined to comment on the layoffs, emphasizing its commitment to providing timely information and resources to the public. Former agency officials argue that the cuts jeopardize public safety, especially during weather emergencies.

Congressional Democrats have also opposed the layoffs, citing the impact on public safety and the ability to provide accurate weather forecasts. The cuts have affected essential roles, such as hurricane modeling specialists and flight directors, who play a vital role in predicting and responding to severe weather events.

The reduction in NOAA’s workforce has sparked concerns about the agency’s ability to effectively respond to upcoming weather seasons, potentially putting lives at risk and undermining public safety efforts.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Temperatures Expected to Decrease to Below 1.5°C by 2025 According to Global Forecasts

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Severe storms caused by La Niña in Queensland, Australia

Genevieve Vallee/Alamy Stock Photo

The UK's national weather and climate agency, the Met Office, predicts that the Earth's average surface temperature in 2025 will be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, and possibly 1.41°C. This is slightly lower than 2024, when temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C for the first time in the calendar year.

“A year ago, our 2024 forecasts highlighted for the first time the potential for temperatures to exceed 1.5C,” the Met Office's Nick Dunstone said in a statement. “While this appears to have happened, it is important to realize that temporarily exceeding 1.5°C does not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement. However, the first year above 1.5°C It is certainly a solemn milestone in climate history.”

The Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial standards. Most climate scientists currently define pre-industrial temperature as the Earth's average surface temperature between 1850 and 1900. This is because this is the earliest period for which reliable direct measurements were obtained. However, some studies suggest that by that time, the world had already warmed significantly as a result of human activity.

Next year will be among the top three warmest years on record, according to 2025 projections

Japan Meteorological Agency

The expected drop in surface temperatures in 2025 is the result of heat transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans due to La Niña, and does not mean that global warming has stopped. The overall heat content of the oceans and atmosphere continues to rise as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are rising due to increased carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.

During a La Niña event, cold water rises in the Pacific Ocean and spreads across the Earth's surface, resulting in a net heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. When an El Niño event occurs, the opposite happens. The 2023 El Niño helped break records for surface temperatures that year, which will be surpassed in 2024. But El Niño alone cannot fully explain the record temperatures.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Meteorologists face backlash despite accurate storm forecasts

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overview

  • Forecasts for hurricanes Helen and Milton were very accurate.
  • Meteorologists say they are facing unprecedented skepticism and vitriol despite the strong information they have released.
  • Some blame pre-election political tensions, while others point to climate change denial and the spread of misinformation on social media.

Nearly five days before Hurricane Milton hit Florida, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predicted its path to within 19 miles of where the storm would later make landfall.

The forecast for Hurricane Helen was similarly accurate. Long before the storm reached the coast, the National Weather Service said “record flooding” in North Carolina, about 400 miles from the coast, was “one of the most significant weather events” in the state’s history. I warned you it would happen.

“The forecast was very accurate and I don’t think anyone was surprised by the landfall location and strength of this storm,” said NBC 6 South Florida meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales.

But some meteorologists say this is the first time they’ve faced so much skepticism, hatred and conspiratorial backlash at a time when hurricane forecasts are at their most accurate.

They have been unfairly accused, primarily on social media, of steering the hurricane toward Florida or Appalachia. Some people have reported threats of violence online, while others say they have been personally attacked.

“Conspiracy theories have increased tremendously over the past two months, especially on social media, and it’s hurting our ability to do our jobs effectively,” said Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist at Mailer Weather and The Washington Post. ” he said. “People will see false signals on radar and think we’re having a hurricane. Some people will think we can lead a hurricane into red states.”

Capucci said social media commenters criticized his Harvard education and said he should be fired. Cappucci added that he was recently interrupted at a bar in Louisiana by a man who noticed his MyRadar shirt and claimed that Cappucci worked for Bill Gates.

“He continued to harass me for the next 14 minutes about weather modification,” Capucci said.

Bradley Panovich, chief meteorologist at WCNC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the messages are “getting more personal, meaner and more persistent.”

“It also takes time and effort away from the job of predicting the weather,” he added.

The wave of opposition and attacks comes as climate change intensifies and meteorologists grapple with the psychological toll of more severe and damaging hurricanes.

“Losing someone to a weather disaster is like losing a patient to a doctor on the operating table,” said Kim Klokow McClain, a senior social scientist supporting the National Weather Service. “Forecasters feel like they can save everyone. They take it personally.”

Hurricane forecasts are now more accurate

Hurricane forecasting has improved dramatically over the past 50 years.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at the nonprofit research group Climate Central, said that advances in computing power and a better understanding of storm physics have allowed the National Hurricane Center to develop forecast cones (forecast forecasts) before tropical cyclones develop. He said that he is now able to announce his future career path.

“Our cone is leaner,” Winkley said, meaning forecasters have more confidence in the hurricane’s path.

The National Hurricane Center annually releases data on how its forecasts match reality, and the trend shows tracking errors have been decreasing since the 1970s. At the time, storm forecasts issued 36 hours in advance could be off by about 230 miles. According to NOAA. So far in the 2020s, that margin of error is approximately 57 miles.

Capucci said the center’s predictions for Hurricane Milton were “almost prescient” and among the best in the center’s history.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

NOAA forecasts 2024 to potentially be the warmest year ever recorded

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July marked the 14th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency predicts that this year is likely to be the hottest or near the hottest on record, with a 77 percent chance of being the hottest and nearly 100 percent chance of being among the top five hottest years. Karin Gleason, from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, reported that record temperatures were observed across nearly a fifth of the world’s land area in July.

Record temperatures were recorded in Europe, Africa, and Asia, making July their warmest month on record. North America experienced the second warmest July. The planet experienced its hottest July on record for two consecutive days, leading to heat warnings in the southwestern U.S. and triple-digit temperatures in Central California, where the Park Fire became the fourth-largest wildfire in state history.

NOAA predicts that most of the continental U.S. will experience above-normal temperatures in September, with the exception of coastal California and parts of the Pacific Northwest. Researchers attribute the extreme temperatures to the burning of fossil fuels and the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The recent temperatures are also influenced by the natural weather pattern El Niño.

El Niño’s influence is expected to weaken, potentially making way for La Niña, which could develop in September, October, and November. La Niña is associated with cooler global temperatures, but it could also intensify hurricanes in the Atlantic. It may lead to wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions in the Southwest, potentially causing recurrent droughts.

The Copernicus project, which combines real-world observations with computer modeling, reported that July was the second-hottest on record. US and European scientists agree that this July’s temperatures were comparable to those of 2023 in terms of heat. Despite slight differences in data and methodologies, the consistency in global data sets suggests that the planet is approaching record levels of heat.

After 15 months of record-high sea surface temperatures, NOAA noted a slight easing in levels. Sea surface temperatures are still trending about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit above average, although below the record set in 2023.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Forecasts Predict a High Number of Storms for Hurricane Season

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Initial predictions for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season indicate that it could be particularly severe and potentially break records.

Colorado State University, a renowned center for hurricane and tropical weather forecasting, has released forecasts stating that there could be 11 hurricanes, with five of them potentially reaching Category 3, 4, or 5 status, which means wind speeds of at least 111 mph. In total, researchers anticipate 23 named storms for this season.

“This is the most accurate forecast we’ve made for April,” stated Colorado meteorologist and Atlantic hurricane forecaster Philip Klotzbach during a video news conference.

On average, an Atlantic hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), according to the National Hurricane Center.

The primary reasons for the above-average expectations for the upcoming season (June 1 to November 30) are the unprecedented levels of warmth in the Atlantic Ocean and the natural fluctuations caused by La Niña. Ocean temperatures have hit record highs in the past year, enhancing the probability of potent storms and potentially intensifying them at a faster rate.

According to Colorado’s forecast, there is a 62% likelihood of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline, an increase of about 19% from the norm. However, this projection was disclosed earlier this year and will be updated as the season progresses. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has yet to release its forecast.

Other hurricane experts also express concerns about the combination of unnatural ocean warming and La Niña’s natural impacts.

“All signs point towards what could potentially be a highly active hurricane season in 2024, with very powerful hurricanes. That’s definitely something to be worried about,” remarked meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales from NBC 6 South Florida.

Sea surface temperatures are climbing globally, setting new daily records for over a year. This trend has baffled marine scientists and is likely influenced by climate change. Some of the most significant temperature anomalies have been observed in the waters off the west coast of Africa, where many Atlantic hurricanes that hit the U.S. East Coast originate.

“The ocean heat content in the tropical eastern Atlantic is currently *3 months* ahead of the norm,” noted Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Ocean, Atmospheric, and Earth Sciences, in a tweet. In simpler terms, the ocean’s current heat levels resemble those of a typical July.

Ocean heat serves as fuel for extreme storms. If a hurricane’s winds intensify suddenly as it nears the coast, there is a heightened risk of rapid intensification. In recent years, there has been an observed uptick in such intensification. Last year, Hurricane Idalia rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 4 storm within 24 hours.

Morales expressed that this swift intensification is “one of the greatest concerns I’ve had to keep to myself over the past 15, 20 years as a hurricane forecaster.”

“Eventually, we’ll witness a mundane tropical storm transform into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Miami 36 hours later,” he warned. “And individuals may not have made the essential preparations.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

DeepMind AI outperforms top weather forecasts, with one caveat

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Will the AI ​​tell me if I need an umbrella?

Sebastien Bozon/AFP via Getty Images

AI company Google DeepMind says AI can more accurately predict the weather 10 days out than current state-of-the-art simulations, but meteorologists are still trying to build weather models based on actual physical principles. It warns against abandoning and relying solely on patterns in the data. Expose the shortcomings of AI approaches.

Existing weather forecasts are based on mathematical models, which use physics and powerful supercomputers to definitively predict what will happen in the future. These models have gradually become more accurate by adding more details, but this requires more calculations, more powerful computers, and higher energy demands.

Rémi Lam and his colleagues at Google DeepMind took a different approach. The company’s GraphCast AI model is trained on his 40 years of historical weather data from satellites, radar, and ground-based measurements to identify patterns that even Google DeepMind can’t understand. “As with many machine learning AI models, it’s not that easy to interpret how the model works,” Lamb says.

To make the predictions, actual weather measurements taken at two points six hours apart from more than one million locations around the globe are used to predict the weather six hours into the future. These predictions can be used as input for another round that predicts another 6 hours into the future.

DeepMind researchers carried out this process using data Produces a 10-day forecast from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They say it outperformed ECMWF’s “gold standard” High Resolution Forecasting (HRES) by providing more accurate forecasts on more than 90 per cent of the data points tested. At some altitudes, this accuracy increased to 99.7%.

Matthew Chantry He, who worked with Google DeepMind at ECMWF, said his organization had previously seen AI as a tool to complement existing mathematical models, but in the past 18 months it has seen a shift in the way AI can actually provide predictions on its own. He said that he has become able to do so.

“We at ECMWF believe this is a very exciting technology that has the potential not only to reduce energy costs when making forecasts, but also to improve them. Creating a reliable operational product “Probably more work is needed, but this is likely the beginning of a revolution in the way weather forecasts are made, and this is our assessment,” he says. According to Google DeepMind, using GraphCast to make a 10-day forecast takes him less than a minute on a high-end PC, but with HRES it can take several hours on a supercomputer.

But some meteorologists are wary of trusting weather forecasting to AI. Ian Renfrew According to researchers at the University of East Anglia in the UK, GraphCast currently lack the ability to marshal data into its own starting state, a process known as data assimilation. In traditional predictions, this data is carefully incorporated into simulations after thorough checks on physics and chemistry calculations to ensure accuracy and consistency. Currently, GraphCast must use a starting state prepared in the same way by ECMWF’s own tools.

“Google won’t be doing weather forecasts any time soon because they can’t assimilate the data,” Renfrew said. “And data assimilation is typically one-half to two-thirds of the computation time for these forecasting systems.”

He says there are also concerns about completely abandoning deterministic models based on chemistry and physics and relying solely on AI output.

“Even if you have the best predictive model in the world, what’s the point if the public doesn’t trust you and you don’t take action? We ordered the evacuation of 30 miles of Florida’s coastline. “If nothing happens, it will blow away the trust that has been built over decades,” he says. “The advantage of a deterministic model is that you can investigate it. If you get a bad prediction, you can investigate why that prediction is bad and target those aspects for improvement.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com