El Niño Is Here: Expect Unpredictable Weather Patterns Ahead

Posted on June 12, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Extreme Weather from El Niño Can Cause Major Flooding

Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

El Niño has officially commenced and is projected to evolve into a “super” El Niño, resulting in amplified global temperatures and extreme weather events.

El Niño represents a natural climatic phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring when east-to-west winds weaken, redirecting warm water pools from the western Pacific back eastward. This influx of warm water significantly heats the atmosphere, contributing to a rise in global temperatures.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed an El Niño occurrence, as sea surface temperatures in the Middle East and the Pacific Ocean have surged over 0.5 degrees Celsius above the norm in the last month, with predictions indicating this trend will persist for at least the next six months. Concurrently, the Japan Meteorological Agency has also marked the onset of El Niño.

Matthew Rosencrans from NOAA’s National Weather Service stated, “Westerly wind anomalies are observed from the International Date Line to approximately 130 degrees west longitude, signifying reduced trade winds in the area south of Hawaii, which enables warmer water to move eastward.”

Furthermore, NOAA has indicated a 63% probability that this El Niño will intensify into a “super” El Niño if sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific exceed 2 degrees Celsius above average. This may lead to the hottest El Niño on record.

Adam Scaife from the Met Office emphasized, “This El Niño is anticipated to be a significant event, likely among the most intense ever recorded.”

Out of 200 model simulations, none predict a return of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and Middle East below 1°C this year, indicated Rosencrans. Some models forecast a rise to 2.6 degrees Celsius, with one Canadian model even suggesting a peak of 3 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record of 2.5 degrees Celsius set during the 1982-1983 Super El Niño, which resulted in significant flooding and an estimated death toll of 1,300 to 2,000 in Peru.

Global temperatures are expected to peak this winter and worsen into 2027. This impending heat wave, layered on top of a current global warming trend of 1.36°C, is likely to make the upcoming year the hottest on record. The increase in temperatures exacerbates extreme weather, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more energy and moisture, often leading to unforeseen tropical weather patterns.

Rosencrans explained, “El Niño alters the probability of precipitation, potentially leading to heat waves or cold fronts in specific areas. It’s like rolling a set of dice, enhancing the likelihood of rain in Southern California, drought in the Maritime Continent, and possibly extremes in India and northern Australia.”

The southern United States may experience decreased summer rainfall, transitioning to cooler, wetter, and stormier conditions in winter, potentially extending as far south as Mexico. Meanwhile, regions like Southeast Asia and southeastern Africa are likely to face increased heat and drought, raising wildfire risks.

Independent climate scientists suggest that El Niño may lead to colder UK winters, though it could also usher in warmer and wetter conditions. Ella Gilbert noted that the impacts of El Niño on the UK are less predictable due to various influencing climate factors. “Storm paths often shift, bringing warmer and wetter conditions, but historically, the UK has seen more storm events than any other region, though the direct correlation is less clear compared to the US or Australia.”

Heat and drought conditions can jeopardize global food supplies, adversely affecting essential products such as rice, coffee, and chocolate. Weston Anderson of the University of Maryland warned that a decline in rice yields could prompt India, a leading producer, to impose export restrictions, leading to rice shortages and rising prices internationally.

“The ripple effect across the food system is concerning,” Anderson stated. “We particularly focus on rice due to its crucial role in food security, and a deficit during the monsoon season poses a serious threat to production levels.”

Experts anticipate that El Niño events may become increasingly frequent, with escalating global warming exacerbating the adverse effects, resulting in dire issues such as forced migration. Chloe Brimicombe of Oxford University asserted, “Long-term strategies and preparedness are essential as climate change intensifies alongside the ongoing impacts of El Niño.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Potential Impacts of El Niño: How This Serious Weather Phenomenon Could Worsen

Posted on June 4, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

In 2016, waves supercharged by El Niño impacted the California coast.

Eliasson/Zuma Wire/Shutterstock

El Niño Impact — In 2016, waves supercharged by El Niño impacted the California coast.

Eliasson/Zuma Wire/Shutterstock

Recent headlines have been buzzing with news about the impending “Godzilla El Niño.” In reality, there’s an 80% chance of an El Niño developing by September. While most climate models forecast a moderate event, some hint at the possibility of a stronger Super El Niño.

However, the broader outlook remains concerning. Regardless of its intensity, we can expect more damaging El Niño events in the coming decades. Even if these events are less powerful, their effects will be pronounced in an increasingly warmer world.

As Axel Timmermann from the Busan National University states, “Even a standard El Niño could create larger regional and global impacts.” His research indicates that both El Niño and La Niña events—collectively referred to as ENSO events—are predicted to become stronger and will increasingly influence weather patterns across the Atlantic Ocean.

Timmermann’s team has found that computer model simulations predict intensified extremes for El Niño-La Niña phenomena, leading to a more pronounced impact in remote regions, especially Europe.

The El Niño phenomenon is fundamentally about the water and wind dynamics in the Pacific Ocean. During the neutral state, trade winds push surface water westward, creating warm water accumulations in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, cold water rises near South America, replacing the warm water displaced by these winds, leading to increased rainfall.

However, when trade winds weaken or reverse, warm water can flow eastward, shifting rain patterns and triggering positive feedback loops that amplify El Niño events. This shift can cause droughts in countries like Australia and Indonesia while leading to floods in South America.

This is also why El Niño contributes to rapid global warming. A larger expanse of warm water enhances evaporation, releasing energy as latent heat and transferring heat into the atmosphere.

El Niño’s intensity is gauged by how much warm water flows east towards South America, often indicated by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 0.5°C. While “Super El Niño” is not a scientific term, it is often defined by temperature increases above 2 degrees Celsius; “Godzilla El Niño” references temperatures above 3 degrees Celsius, as noted by Adam Scaife from the Met Office Hadley Centre.

As El Niño unfolds, negative feedback loops can emerge, such as increased cloud cover over the central Pacific, which can lead back to neutral conditions or even shift to La Niña, where stronger westerly winds push cold water westward.

The three strongest El Niño events recorded occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, each causing significant harm to ecosystems and human populations, including mass mortality of corals and marine life.

Each Super El Niño has resulted in economic damages amounting to trillions of dollars. A 2023 study by Christopher Callahan from Indiana University found a direct correlation between the magnitude of economic loss and the intensity of Pacific ocean temperatures: “If a major El Niño occurs this year, we should anticipate economic losses in the trillions, similar to past events.”

As global temperatures rise, future El Niños and Super El Niños will likely become increasingly damaging. Richard Allan from the University of Reading, UK, states, “The science is clear.” He emphasizes that ENSO-related flooding is expected to worsen due to increased atmospheric moisture, leading to more intense rainfall during storms. Hotter conditions will also exacerbate droughts, causing longer and more severe dry spells.

Some climate models propose that warming could amplify the feedback mechanisms driving ENSO events, possibly leading to greater intensity in both El Niño and La Niña, and quicker transitions between the two, referred to as “climate whiplash.” This may complicate society’s adaptation to environmental changes.

“This means greater fluctuations between wet and dry years for numerous regions,” explains Malte Stucker, a member of Timmermann’s team at the University of Hawaii.

Worse yet, the team’s research suggests that these intensified fluctuations could synchronize ENSO events with the North Atlantic Oscillation. If this occurs, Europe may experience significant variability in flooding and drought patterns.

“Such a change would be a major shift for Europe since El Niño typically has minimal influence on its weather patterns under current conditions,” Stucker notes.

Though there is strong evidence suggesting that future El Niños of similar magnitude will cause more destruction, the likelihood of El Niño events intensifying remains highly debated. “There are substantial disagreements regarding the future behavior of El Niño and La Niña,” Scaife points out.

Not all climate models predict an intensification of El Niño, yet many do connect it closely with regions like the Atlantic Ocean, suggesting that El Niño’s impacts across the Pacific may strengthen in the coming years.

Even if ENSO events do intensify, they won’t continue to do so indefinitely, according to Timmermann. He notes that this intensification is partly due to rapid warming of water approximately 100 meters deep across the Pacific; ENSO events may weaken as groundwater temperatures equilibrate and differentials decrease.

What about the fish stocks? Such a decline may not materialize until after 2150, so fasten your seatbelts for a turbulent ride ahead.

Topics:

Climate Change/
Extreme Weather Events

Source: www.newscientist.com

Experts Warn: Devastating Weather Event Predicted to Strike the U.S. in 2026

Posted on May 19, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean as one of the most significant climate changes in recorded history rapidly unfolds beneath its surface.

Latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a 61 percent chance of an El Niño event—the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean known for altering global weather patterns—developing by July.

While El Niño occurs every few years, this instance could be unprecedented. NOAA reports a 1 in 4 chance that it will reach “very strong” intensity, potentially categorizing it as a “super” El Niño. Such powerful events have historically led to droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures across various continents.

Furthermore, researchers warn that the combination of these phenomena with human-caused climate change might create impacts unlike anything previously experienced.

“Currently, I estimate a 50 percent chance that this event could be the strongest in history,” stated Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany. BBC Science Focus. “Just weeks ago, my estimate was closer to 20 percent.”

What is El Niño? Why is this Different?

El Niño describes a recurring climate cycle driven by the warming of the surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Every few years, normal trade winds that typically push warm water westward weaken or reverse, allowing the heat to disperse eastward along the equator.

A Super El Niño is characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C (3.6°F) above normal in central Pacific regions. Historically, only three such significant instances have occurred: in 1982/1983, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

In 1876, a Super El Niño caused a global famine and is believed to have resulted in the deaths of as many as 50 million people.

This satellite data reveals the development of the 2015 Super El Niño as warm water accumulated in the Pacific Ocean. This year could see similar strength, but under a warmer global climate – Photo credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison

Roundy explained that this year, a series of unusually robust westerly winds in the Pacific are pushing accumulated warm water eastward.

The phenomenon mirrors the early 1997 wind event that precipitated what is considered the strongest El Niño of the 20th century.

“Currently, the warm water east of the westerly winds is about half a degree warmer than during the same timeframe in 1997,” Roundy observed. “We have the momentum needed to increase the intensity of this event beyond what was achieved then.”

The ultimate outcome remains uncertain; future wind shifts may partially mitigate the ongoing phenomenon.

“Drawing from historical trade wind patterns, it would require significant surges in severe trade winds to prevent this El Niño from becoming extremely intense,” Roundy added.

In essence, a very strong El Niño is highly likely, but whether it will set new records is still uncertain.

What Does Super El Niño Actually Cause?

The impact of El Niño is felt globally, from declining fish stocks off the coast of Peru to reduced monsoons and rainfall in India, China, and much of Southeast Asia.

“Typically, wet regions dry up and wildfires ensue, while dry areas become saturated,” Roundy explained.

The United States may experience the effects of the ongoing El Niño this summer, with increased rainfall in the Midwest and West, while dry conditions could persist from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast.

As El Niño establishes itself during winter, a strengthened southern storm track will likely result in heavy rain from California to the East Coast.

Roundy recalled that both 1982 and 1997 were “notorious flood years” in the U.S., while the northern parts experienced warmer winters.

A potential advantage of a strong El Niño is its capacity to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, as increased wind shear inhibits storm formation.

During El Niño winters, the Pacific jet stream is redirected, bringing increased moisture to the typically dry southern U.S. This could bolster reservoir levels but poses flooding risks – Photo credit: NOAA

Into Unknown Territory

Assessing this situation is not straightforward in any year, but 2026 is particularly complex. Global temperatures have already surged more than 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and a strong El Niño integrated with this elevated baseline could push the climate system into uncharted territory for modern humanity.

“The world has never encountered a strong or very strong El Niño event coupled with such elevated baseline temperatures,” stated Dr. Daniel Swain from the University of California College of Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR). “Thus, unprecedented global impacts related to extreme flooding, droughts, and wildfires could emerge late in 2026 and extend into 2027.”

“There’s a significant likelihood that a new global temperature record will be established in either 2026, 2027, or potentially both years.”

With such elevated temperatures, the risk of wildfires looms large. A Super El Niño “could amplify the risk of extensive or unusually intense fires in humid regions where they typically do not occur, particularly given the rise in reference temperatures,” Swain specified, highlighting regions like the Amazon and Oceania, where peatlands “can smolder for months.”

A December 2025 study published in Nature Communications underscores these concerns. Analyzing prior Super El Niños alongside climate model predictions, it suggests that such significant events may markedly heighten the risk of “climate regime change,” causing abrupt and persistent shifts in temperature, sea level, and soil moisture for years or even decades following the El Niño.

This implies that the repercussions of Super El Niño in 2026 may not simply disappear even if Pacific temperatures return to normal; some alterations might become permanent.

However, Roundy cautioned against overestimating this conclusion. With only three Super El Niños historically documented, predicting future events remains precarious.

“Scientists should exercise caution when extrapolating future outcomes from a limited pool of past events,” Roundy cautioned.

Ultimately, the extraordinary scale and trajectory of developments in the Pacific are underway during a climate phase hotter than any in the post-industrial age.

“Ecosystems have adapted to El Niño dynamics for millions of years, and such extreme events play a crucial role in ecosystem rejuvenation,” Roundy noted. “However, they significantly impact human societies and life overall.”

What remains uncertain is the extent to which the effects will be severe, harmful, or long-lasting.

Read more:

Source: www.sciencefocus.com

Rising Chances of ‘Super El Niño’: What It Means for Global Weather Patterns

Posted on May 7, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Recent forecasts indicate that one of the most powerful El Niño events in history could arise in the upcoming months, sparking concerns about global temperature fluctuations, hurricane activity, droughts, and other extreme meteorological phenomena this year.

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For several months, forecasters have anticipated a potential “Super El Niño” that might continue until late 2026. Recent forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest that the likelihood is rising.

El Niño is marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in specific Pacific Ocean regions. This significant climatic phenomenon typically results in rising global temperatures and alters weather patterns worldwide.

El Niño events generally amplify the warming trends associated with human-induced climate change, heightening the chances of above-average global temperatures.

According to the latest forecasts from the European Centre, evidence suggests sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean could exceed average levels by as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) this fall. If confirmed, this El Niño event could be classified as one of the most robust on record, potentially a “Super El Niño.”

A Super El Niño is defined by Pacific Ocean water temperatures that are at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.

NOAA’s report, released on Monday, noted that since mid-April, “near-average” sea surface temperatures have been recorded across most of the equatorial Pacific region.

Researchers closely track El Niño patterns due to their extensive implications for global temperatures and extreme weather occurrences.

Should a super El Niño develop in the coming months and persist into the next year; climate experts warn that global temperatures could soar to unprecedented levels by 2027.

El Niño events often suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by reinforcing upper-level winds, which can dismantle storms that are forming. The western United States typically experiences increased heat and humidity during El Niño, contributing to a higher probability of parched conditions in the southern regions.

Globally, El Niño also causes above-average rainfall in parts of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.

In 2015, the Super El Niño led to severe drought in Ethiopia and instigated water rationing in Puerto Rico, as reported by NOAA. This event also resulted in intensified tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, with 16 tropical cyclones reported, including three Category 4 storms in late August.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Record Wildfire Emissions in Europe Driven by Extreme Weather in 2025

Posted on April 29, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Firefighters Combat Wildfires in Fundão, Portugal, August 2025

Da Silva/EPA/Shutterstock

In 2025, Europe faces unprecedented wildfires and heatwaves, exacerbating the impacts on the world’s fastest-warming continent.

According to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), last year marked the hottest year on record in the UK, Iceland, and Norway, and one of the three hottest years across Europe. Over 95% of the continent experienced above-average annual temperatures. Regions like Scandinavia, Finland, and northwestern Russia endured the most severe heatwave recorded, with temperatures soaring to 30°C (86°F) in the Arctic for a staggering 21 consecutive days.

This extreme heat threatens to stunt the growth of flora and fauna while fostering the spread of invasive species and pests. Celeste Sauro from the World Meteorological Organization emphasized that such prolonged heat stress has devastating effects on ecosystems: “We’re seeing between 0 and 2 days of strong heat stress, and now we’re talking about 21 days affecting the ecosystem’s health.” Since 1980, Europe has warmed at twice the global average rate, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and severe.

The warming climate contributed to record wildfires in Portugal and Spain last August, conditions now deemed at least 40 times more probable due to extreme heat, dryness, and wind. Over 10,000 square kilometers were scorched, resulting in at least three fatalities. As wildfires approached Madrid, parts of the Camino de Santiago had to be closed, with smoke wafting as far as Britain.

Across Europe, wildfires emitted a staggering 47 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, with Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and Cyprus exceeding previous emission records. Soil conditions are at their driest in over 33 years, with extreme agricultural drought afflicting over one-third of Europe, including the UK, Turkey, and Ukraine. This drought conditions may have catalyzed wildfires, particularly in Spain and Portugal. As Samantha Burgess from ECMWF stated, “Following a wet spring that stimulated plant growth, the record summer heat has left dry plants and shrubs, creating tinderbox conditions.”

“When you combine wildfire weather with very high fuel loads and especially hot, dry winds, you create catastrophic conditions for wildfires to spread rapidly,” Burgess continued. “National parks must implement firebreaks to limit the spread in case of a wildfire.”

The waters surrounding Europe have also been abnormally warm, breaking records for annual sea surface temperatures for four continuous years. A staggering 86 percent of these oceans have experienced strong, intense, or extreme marine heatwaves, with the hottest spots located off the west of Ireland, south of Iceland, and southeast of Spain.

In the last three years, the Mediterranean Sea has experienced 100% heatwave conditions, warming at a pace faster than the global average. Water temperatures in Italy and Spain reached a sweltering 30 degrees Celsius, warmer than average swimming pools, increasing the likelihood of fish mortality and the proliferation of harmful bacteria and algae. Historically, marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean have devastated coral reefs, seaweed beds, and shellfish populations.

To mitigate future impacts, Europe must spearhead efforts to combat climate change. Dusan Krenek, a European Commission official, noted: “In 2025, 12.5% of the continent’s electricity was generated from solar power, with renewables accounting for a total of 46%.” European nations are among the pioneers participating in the Summit on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, held in Colombia, following the inadequacies of the COP30 climate change summit in Brazil.

Additionally, officials stress the need for Europe to adapt to forthcoming climate risks, including potential multi-year droughts akin to those currently affecting the western United States. “We must address these risks,” Krenek stated. “The cost of inaction far exceeds the investments needed to tackle these adverse effects.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

How Extreme Weather Patterns Could Explain Titan’s Mysterious Plains

Posted on April 22, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Images of Titan captured by Cassini Spacecraft

NASA/JPL/SSI/Val Klavans

Titan, Saturn’s largest moon, features vast plains often covered with up to a meter of light, organic “snow.” Remarkably, approximately 65% of Titan’s surface consists of uniformly flat plains blanketed in a porous layer made of particles deposited from its hazy atmosphere.

Due to its dense atmosphere, studying Titan from a distance poses challenges. The Cassini spacecraft, which orbited Saturn from 2004 to 2017, employed radar technology to gather in-depth observations. Recently, Professor Alexander Hayes and his team at Cornell University refined their analysis of the radar data.

The interaction of radio waves from Cassini’s radar with Titan’s surface suggests complexities beyond those of typical rocky celestial bodies. “Existing models developed for the Moon and similar bodies do not apply directly to Titan,” Hayes explains. “Its radar scattering properties reveal it as a unique entity in our solar system.”

The researchers propose a two-layer model to better explain Titan’s surface characteristics, indicating that a hard substrate is covered by a soft, low-density material, differing from the simplistic rocky models. They suggest that this outer layer, varying in thickness from a few centimeters to a meter, comprises organic molecules descending from Titan’s dense atmosphere, resembling snowfall before compaction over time.

Furthermore, Titan’s surface experiences rain, wind, and erosion, necessitating exploration into how these processes contribute to the development of its blanket layers. “Understanding these mechanisms can provide valuable insights into Titan’s broader environmental processes,” Hayes adds.

NASA’s upcoming Dragonfly mission, set to launch in 2028 and reach Titan by 2034, aims to analyze these surface layers, enhancing our comprehension not only of Titan but also aiding the design of future missions targeting this extraordinary moon.

Exploring the History and Future of Space Exploration in the United States

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Concerns Rise Over National Weather Service Changes Amid Sudden Tornadoes in Kansas

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

The unpredicted tornado in Kansas follows a similarly dramatic event in Michigan last month, where no tornado watch was issued in southern Michigan, tragically resulting in four fatalities. Nevertheless, the National Weather Service (NWS) did issue a warning indicating that a tornado was imminent.

Democratic Senators from Michigan, Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin, sent a letter to NWS Director Ken Graham raising critical questions. They inquired about the absence of tornado watches, the possibility of staffing shortages influencing these decisions, and how the NWS plans to enhance its future tornado warnings. A spokesperson stated that the NWS responded directly to the senators but did not disclose the details to NBC News.

In light of ongoing staffing shortages, the NWS has taken measures to reinforce its operations, yet external meteorologists argue that the repercussions are still felt.

“It wasn’t something that was solved overnight,” noted meteorologist Baguskie. “Considering what we see in the atmosphere, it’s clear that the issues still persist. Any severe weather day raises concerns, especially since the peak of tornado season typically occurs from late April to May.”

Buildings damaged in Ottawa on Tuesday following a severe storm.
Nick Ingram/Associated Press

Forecasters at the NWS office in Kansas City assessed the atmosphere on Monday as “unstable,” aware that the storm could intensify. Despite this, meteorologists believed a tornado formation was unlikely.

Meteorologist Brad Temeyer explained, “There was a strong possibility we wouldn’t experience any rain or thunderstorms. The conditions appeared perfect for nothing to happen. Yet, when the tornado did occur, it had a significant impact.”

Temeyer mentioned that authorities conducted a survey of the tornado damage on Tuesday.

“Thankfully, there were no serious injuries or fatalities reported. We evaluated the situation, and residents had adequately prepared for the possibility of a tornado, evacuating when the warning was provided,” he shared.

Brian LaMarr, who was the meteorologist-in-charge for Weather Consultants at NWS in Tampa Bay, Florida, reviewed forecasting models for Monday, focusing on data before and after the delayed release of weather balloons.

LaMarr found that initial models did not indicate any thunderstorm risk around southwest Kansas City; however, upon incorporating balloon data, the models began to predict clusters of thunderstorms. Further investigation is required to determine whether this change resulted from the added balloon data.

“We need a thorough investigation to understand why the risks weren’t identified. What critical details were overlooked?” he argued.

The Midwest may experience more severe weather, as the Storm Prediction Center forecasts a risk of severe thunderstorms extending into the weekend.

“We urge everyone to remain vigilant,” Temeyer advised citizens in the Kansas City area.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Is a Super El Niño Coming? Impact on Weather and Climate Explained

Posted on April 14, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Super El Niño Results in 1998 China Floods

Photo by Robin Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Recent models predict the emergence of an exceptionally strong El Niño climate phase later this year, potentially the strongest recorded.

This event is being referred to as “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño,” which could lead to severe droughts in certain regions and catastrophic flooding in others, contributing to the hottest year on record globally.

“Projections indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm at an unprecedented rate this century,” says Adam Scaife from the UK’s Met Office. “Something unusual is clearly happening.”

What is Super El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon that significantly raises temperatures and disrupts global weather patterns. This occurs when the trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean weaken, disrupting upwelling of cold water and causing warm surface water to accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific. As a result, atmospheric circulation is altered.

El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeding 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. A “super” El Niño occurs when this temperature rise exceeds 2 degrees Celsius.

The name El Niño, meaning “the Christ child,” originates from observations by Peruvian fishermen who noted that warming typically peaks in December.

While El Niño events occur every few years, “super” events have been recorded in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.

What are the Chances of a Super El Niño Occurring?

Westerly winds during March and early April have carried warm water toward the central and eastern Pacific, paving the way for a significant El Niño event. The Japan Meteorological Agency anticipates that the temperature anomaly could reach nearly 2 degrees Celsius by September. Additionally, models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate a 50% chance of reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius by October.

The National Weather Service estimates a 25% chance of experiencing a Super El Niño by year’s end. If predictions hold that temperature anomalies in the central Pacific exceed 3 degrees Celsius by September, we could witness the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

Currently, signs of El Niño’s development remain weak, and models struggle to provide accurate forecasts, a challenge known as the “spring predictability barrier.” Meteorologists expect to have clearer insights into El Niño’s strength by May or June.

What are the Weather Impacts?

Changes in atmospheric circulation due to El Niño can have far-reaching consequences, including substantial economic damage, crop failures, coral bleaching, and the spread of diseases. “Conditions are chaotic and well outside normal ranges,” states Tim Stockdale from ECMWF. “It’s not solely about increased rainfall; these changes are occurring in areas typically shielded from such storms.”

Typically, El Niño brings intensified storms and wet weather to southern coastlines of the Americas, the Horn of Africa, and China, elevating flooding risks. Conversely, regions like Australia, Southeast Asia, south-central Africa, India, and the Amazon rainforest are likely to face hotter, drier conditions, heightening the potential for droughts, heat waves, and wildfires.

In the UK and northwestern Europe, the effects are less predictable, with El Niño potentially leading to warmer summers and colder winters, although other climatic factors may also contribute to milder, wetter winters.

Even after reaching its peak, El Niño’s damaging effects can persist. Following the Super El Niño of 1997-1998, heavy rains resulted in devastating floods in China’s densely populated Yangtze River basin, claiming over 3,000 lives, destroying 15 million homes, and causing $20 billion in economic losses.

A silver lining is that fewer hurricanes typically form in the Caribbean and off the U.S. east coast during El Niño, as enhanced atmospheric circulation increases wind shear, causing storms to dissipate quickly rather than evolving into major hurricanes.

How Will El Niño Affect Climate?

If climate change is likened to a slowly rising tide, El Niño acts as a powerful wave that temporarily elevates temperatures even further. A strong El Niño could lead to a global temperature increase of 0.2°C.

The last significant El Niño event in 2024 contributed to record-high global temperatures, briefly surpassing the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C for the first time. Many anticipate that a Super El Niño in 2027 could also set a new record.

“As we approach 1.4°C, it is very plausible that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold in 2027,” Scaife noted. “Global warming is inching closer to the Paris Agreement limits.”

Will More Super El Niño Events Occur?

Despite rising El Niño temperatures in the central Pacific due to climate change, long-term temperature averages remain consistent, suggesting that we may not see an increase in the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. Consequently, the National Weather Service has begun to classify El Niño based on the central Pacific’s temperature relative to other tropical regions, although this new classification has not yet gained widespread acceptance.

Both El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, have been observed with greater frequency and intensity over the past 50 to 60 years. One study indicated that climate change has intensified the temperature variation in the central Pacific by about 10%. However, with only 150 years of reliable data available, early measurements are often unreliable, leading many scientists to be cautious about asserting that climate change has intensified El Niño.

“Will climate change influence El Niño events? That remains a complex question,” Stockdale stated. “The answer is likely yes.”

It is evident that global warming exacerbates the consequences of El Niño. As global temperatures rise, evaporation heights increase, leading to higher atmospheric moisture retention and intensified extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods.

“We refer to this as the intensification of the water cycle,” Stockdale explained. “El Niño can cause dramatic shifts in typical precipitation patterns, likely compounded by climate change.”

Topics:

Source: www.newscientist.com

How Star-Induced ‘Space Weather’ Could Obscure Radio Signals from Extraterrestrial Civilizations

Posted on March 10, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Stellar activity and plasma turbulence can significantly distort narrow radio signals before they exit their planetary systems. This phenomenon may help explain the prolonged silence observed in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI).

Research by Vishal Gajjar and Grayce C. Brown introduces one of the first quantitative frameworks to assess how stellar environments affect the detectability of narrowband technosignatures. Image credit: Sci.News.

In our exploration of technosignatures, astronomers typically take into account the distortions that occur as radio waves traverse interstellar space.

Variations in plasma density from stellar winds and sporadic eruptive events like coronal mass ejections can severely distort radio waves near their source, effectively “smearing” the frequency and diminishing the peak intensity necessary for detection.

“SETI searches are usually optimized for very narrow signals,” stated Dr. Vishal Gajjar, an astronomer at the SETI Institute.

“If a signal is amplified by its stellar environment, it might drop below the detection threshold, potentially elucidating some of the radio silence encountered in the search for technosignatures.”

To quantify this effect, Dr. Gajjar and his colleague Dr. Grace Brown leveraged directly measurable data: radio transmissions from spacecraft within our solar system.

They utilized empirical data from solar system probes to calibrate how turbulent plasma disperses narrowband signals, extrapolating these findings across various stellar environments.

The outcome is a comprehensive framework for estimating the extent of signal broadening across different star types and observation frequencies, particularly under “space weather” conditions prevalent around active stars.

This groundbreaking study has significant implications for target selection and search design in SETI.

M-type dwarfs, which constitute approximately 75% of stars in the Milky Way, are particularly prone to having narrowband signals distorted before departing their systems.

Astronomers advocate for search strategies that maintain sensitivity, even when the detected signal is not purely ultrathin.

“By quantifying how stellar activity alters narrowband signals, we can create searches that more accurately reflect what actually arrives on Earth, not just what may be transmitted,” noted Dr. Brown.

The team’s research was published on March 5th in the Astrophysical Journal.

_____

Vishal Gajjar and Grace C. Brown. 2026. Exo-IPM scattering as a hidden gatekeeper of narrowband technology signatures. APJ 999, 201; doi: 10.3847/1538-4357/ae3d33

Source: www.sci.news

Why Space Weather Could Have Caused SETI to Overlook Alien Signals

Posted on March 9, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Solar flare captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on October 2, 2014, showcasing solar material ejecting into space. — Is there anyone there?

NASA/SDO

Recent studies suggest that solar winds may have obstructed our ability to receive signals from intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations. Researchers from the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Institute indicate that we might be searching for the wrong types of signals, leading to the potential oversight of crucial evidence of alien life. However, the silver lining is that future discoveries are becoming increasingly likely.

This nonprofit organization focuses on research aimed at validating the existence of extraterrestrial life, including monitoring unexplained extraterrestrial radio signals that don’t align with known natural cosmic phenomena.

Traditionally, signals from distant planets were anticipated to be sharp and clear radio transmissions within a narrow frequency range. New research, however, posits that these transmissions could become distorted, appearing less distinct due to interference from a star’s plasma winds.

SETI Institute researchers Vishal Gajjar and Grace Brown evaluated the effects of solar interference on radio signals emitted by spacecraft in our solar system and extrapolated their findings to other stellar environments. They found that a 100 megahertz signal could be diffused to a dramatically reduced threshold of 100 hertz, falling below conventional detection limits. Solar phenomena can exacerbate signal spread significantly.

According to Simon George at the SETI Institute, there is a growing consensus that the search for narrow bandwidth radio signals is becoming an obsolete strategy in the quest to detect life at vast distances. “The evolution of communication technology since the 1960s suggests that a sophisticated civilization would likely utilize broader spectrum technologies to transmit more information,” he explains.

“Viewing Earth as an exoplanet from an alien perspective has become a common analogy within SETI,” says George. “In the 1960s, Earth was a prominent narrowband source, but as our transmission techniques have shifted, it has become less prominent. This would change if an advanced civilization were intentionally broadcasting clear signals meant to convey ‘We are here,’ or other specific messages.”

Professor John Elliott from the University of St Andrews in the UK maintains an optimistic outlook regarding this revelation. While it’s possible that evidence may have been overlooked in previous searches, he believes that future endeavors are likely to yield better results.

“We have been engaged in this research for over 50 years, which is significant time in scientific terms,” Elliott states. He emphasizes that signal distortion hasn’t been the only obstacle in past investigations; outdated techniques for isolating signals from noise have also posed challenges. However, advancements in computing power and AI are paving the way for improved methodologies. “Until recently, we lacked the necessary equipment and computational capabilities to make substantial breakthroughs. We were metaphorically navigating in the dark,” he adds. “Looking ahead another millennium, it’s exciting to imagine the advancements in technology that await us.”

Eric Atwell from the University of Leeds, who contributed to SETI projects at the turn of the millennium, has quantified how this discovery raises the likelihood of detecting a possible alien signal from 0.0001% to 0.0002%.

“While these probabilities remain extremely low, we have not considered our efforts wasted,” he reflects. The SETI team continues to explore and experiment, gathering substantial evidence that existing strategies are not as fruitful as hoped.

“The objective is to detect unusual signals that can’t be explained by existing astronomical phenomena, though this methodology can be somewhat erratic when it comes to uncovering intelligent life,” Atwell comments.

He expresses skepticism regarding the notion of passively waiting for clear signals from extraterrestrial life. “If intelligent beings exist and wish to be discovered, they would likely send more distinct communications,” he asserts.

Alternative organizations, such as the Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (METI), are employing different methodologies to find alien life by actively broadcasting signals to other planets, enhancing the chance that extraterrestrial civilizations may recognize and respond to such communications.

Topics:

Source: www.newscientist.com

New Bill Proposes Safety Commission for Investigating Weather Disasters

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

When an American tragically dies in a plane or train crash, a dedicated independent commission investigates the incident to pinpoint failures and develop strategies to prevent similar occurrences.

In stark contrast, there is currently no similar process in place following deadly floods or hurricanes.

Recently, Rep. Eric Sorensen from Illinois introduced a significant bill aimed at establishing such a review commission to thoroughly investigate weather-related disasters and implement preventive measures for the future.

The proposed legislation, titled the National Weather Safety Commission Act, seeks to establish an independent commission with a minimum of seven members, all possessing relevant expertise in fields like meteorology, social science, and emergency management. The President will appoint them, pending Senate confirmation. This commission is modeled after the National Transportation Safety Board, which investigates all civil aviation incidents and other emergencies.

This proposed commission would have the authority to investigate severe weather events, issue subpoenas for testimony and evidence, and compile reports and recommendations for agencies such as the National Weather Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Army Corps of Engineers.

The idea of a weather disaster review has been a subject of discussion among meteorologists and emergency management professionals for years. However, it gained renewed urgency following the devastating flood in Texas this past July, which resulted in over 130 fatalities, including 27 campers and counselors at a camp along the Guadalupe River.

Caution tape marking the entrance to Hunt’s Camp Mystic on July 7.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images File

In the aftermath of the flood, blame quickly shifted among Texas officials, with criticisms directed at the National Weather Service, which was operating with reduced staff due to funding cuts from the previous administration. Questions were raised about the accuracy of rainfall forecasts as well as the effectiveness of local emergency management systems and alert protocols.

“We quickly discovered that political maneuvering was complicating the issue,” Sorensen told NBC News. “We need to implement substantial changes to ensure that a tragedy of this nature does not recur. We will enlist the top experts on an independent board to deliver insights that Congress can use to formulate policies prioritizing public safety.”

As the sole meteorologist in Congress, Sorensen underscores the urgency of this initiative.

“Meteorologists have been advocating for years that we need to enhance our response mechanisms,” Sorensen asserted.

In recent years, Senators Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) have introduced various proposals aimed at creating similar disaster review boards. Additionally, several Republican colleagues, including former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), are championing comparable legislation. The concept of an independent review body for weather-related incidents dates back to 2006.

Currently, the new bill lacks bipartisan sponsorship.

“This situation is a crucial test for us during this administration and in our currently polarized political climate: Can we still achieve bipartisan collaboration? Can we unite across party lines to enact necessary changes?” Sorensen expressed.

Congressman Eric Sorensen (D-Illinois) at the U.S. Capitol on April 10, 2024.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call (via Getty Images)

Neil Jacobs, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) appointed by President Trump, endorsed the proposal for an independent review panel.

“Accurate data is essential for post-storm evaluations,” Jacobs mentioned during his Senate confirmation following the Texas disaster. “Drawing from my experiences with the NTSB on aviation incidents, I can envision something similar for weather-related catastrophes, as we require comprehensive data to assess what succeeded, what failed, and the efficacy of warning systems.”

Sorensen confirmed he has collaborated on this bill with Jacobs.

“I believe he is the ideal ally to help propel this initiative forward,” Sorensen stated.

Douglas Hilderbrand, executive director of the American Weather Companies Association, an emerging organization focused on weather forecasting and information delivery, is also collaborating with Sorensen on this legislation.

“Weather is fundamentally a bipartisan concern,” Hilderbrand emphasized. “We remain optimistic about this initiative.”

The bill delineates specific types of events qualifying as weather hazards for the commission’s examination, including any disaster declared by the President under the Stafford Act, along with severe weather events resulting in at least 10 fatalities or 100 injuries. Such events deemed “rapidly occurring” mass casualty incidents are included as well.

The Weather Safety Board would convene a vote within 14 days of the occurrence of such an event to determine whether to initiate an investigation.

The Army Corps of Engineers, Department of Homeland Security (including FEMA), Federal Communications Commission, and NOAA (including the National Weather Service) will be obliged to furnish data and information to the Commission upon request.

The board will have a period of 90 days post-major weather event to draft an interim report, followed by a comprehensive final report due within a 20-month timeframe.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Engaging Canadians: Creative Ways to Share Snowy Weather Insights Using Polar Bears

Posted on March 5, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

New Scientist - Your source for the latest science news and in-depth features by expert journalists covering science, technology, health, and environmental developments.

Feedback is New Scientist A popular publication that keeps you updated on the latest science and technology insights. We welcome feedback on topics you think would interest our readers. Please email us at feedback@newscientist.com.

Exploring Unconventional Measurements

Since the Golden Retriever became a quirky unit for measuring ice blocks, our feedback inbox has been flooded with examples of unique and often surprising units of measurement.

Craig Downing, who describes himself as “one of those readers who checks the back of every issue,” shared a fascinating insight about the Rideau Canal in his hometown of Ottawa, Canada. Every winter, the canal transforms into the largest ice skating rink in the world, requiring meticulous snow removal for a smooth surface.

According to a statement from the National Capital Commission, “For every centimeter of snowfall, our crew clears 125,000 kg of snow from the skateway, equivalent to the weight of approximately 450 polar bears.”

Craig expressed his confusion: “I usually visualize snow depth in terms of ‘shovel loads’ or ‘knee-deep driveways.’” Moreover, living in Ottawa, he has yet to encounter a polar bear firsthand, limiting his experience with these majestic creatures.

The average polar bear reportedly weighs around 277.8 kilograms (612 pounds). However, gender nuances play a significant role; adult male bears can weigh between 350 and 600 kg (775 to 1,300 lb), while females typically range from 150 to 290 kg (330 to 650 lb), with some exceptional cases reaching up to 800 kg.

This lack of specification raises questions regarding many unconventional units. Steve Tees submitted a query, stating, “I keep hearing about ‘xxx warehouses’ causing traffic delays. Can someone clarify the size of these warehouses?”

The Sounds We Dread

Various sounds can hinder focus. While nails on a chalkboard are notoriously unpleasant, other common annoyances include loud chewing and vigorous teeth brushing by strangers.

One particularly despised sound is the high-pitched screech produced when adhesive tape is pulled from a surface, which deters many from DIY projects.

But understanding the science behind this noise could help. For example, an experiment published in Physical Review E explores the physics of peeling off cellophane tape. Researchers employed high-speed cameras and microphones to study the tape’s removal speed, discovering that “microscopic cracks travel through the tape at supersonic speeds, producing a shock wave that manifests as a high-pitched screech.”

We eagerly anticipate feedback from follow-up studies aiming to demonstrate quiet tape removal methods.

On Retractions and Their Implications

Our feedback section takes a keen interest in the world of retracted scientific papers. Whether due to questionable graphics generated by AI, manipulated images, or dubious research claims, these cases pique our curiosity.

A prominent example is a 2026 retraction from Pharmacological Research and Prospects. Originally published in 2022, the paper investigated ivermectin—an anti-parasitic drug controversially labeled a potential cure for COVID-19 and suggested for liver cancer treatment. We believe such claims warrant skepticism.

The retraction notice indicated it was “by agreement” between the authors and relevant parties, prolonging the discussion long past its culmination.

It was stated that “the corresponding author was not involved in the submission process, did not sign an open access agreement, and did not review or approve the final manuscript version before submission,” raising serious concerns.

Furthermore, the journal’s investigation uncovered evidence of image duplication from previous publications. This is, without a doubt, troubling.

Yet, the authors maintained, “the conclusions of the article are otherwise unaffected.” This left the first author musing on how conclusions could remain valid despite significant discrepancies.

Our interpretation is clear: once a paper is retracted, it loses credibility, and its conclusions are no longer taken seriously.

Have a story for feedback?

You can email your article to Feedback at feedback@newscientist.com. Don’t forget to include your home address. Discover this week’s and past feedback on our website.

Source: www.newscientist.com

Western US Sees Record Low Snowfall: What This Means for Winter Weather Trends

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

Last weekend’s winter storm may have covered much of the country with significant snow and ice, but winter has yet to fully arrive in the Western United States. Several states are grappling with snow-induced drought.

According to Peter Goble, the assistant state climatologist, Colorado is experiencing its lowest snowfall amounts on record for this time of year. “All of our mountain ranges are well below normal,” he reported.

Utah is facing a similar predicament.

“We’re in uncharted territory right now, heading toward our lowest snowfall ever by February 1,” stated Kevin Perry, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah.

Scientists are increasingly alarmed about the implications for water supplies and wildfire risks later this year. Mountain snowpack in Western states serves as a crucial water source in spring and summer, directly impacting agricultural irrigation, wildfire dangers, and hydroelectric power generation.

Western snowpack data is sourced from the National Resource Conservation Service, which monitors more than 800 high-elevation monitoring stations across several mountain basins. Their measurements show that nearly all basins in the continental U.S. West are trending below average.

Only a few basins in the western United States are near average snow levels.
Natural Resource Conservation Services

While it’s not uncommon for some basins to fall below historical averages, it’s rare for nearly all Western regions to be facing snowfall deficits.

In Washington state, a recent climb to Mount St. Helens in mid-January revealed conditions resembling June rather than mid-winter, exposing large areas of volcanic rock near the crater’s rim.

The causes of the snow drought differ by region; however, unusually warm winter temperatures have resulted in more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. Such was the case during a December atmospheric river storm in the Pacific Northwest.

“Washington, Oregon, California, and many Western states recorded their warmest December on record, leading to torrential rains and flooding not limited to mountainous areas,” mentioned Philip Mort, a professor at Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Currently, moisture flow has significantly diminished in the northwest.

In Utah, early seasonal rains during November and December melted lower-elevation snow, leaving the Wasatch Mountains looking heavily peak-laden, Perry noted.

“The high-elevation snowpack is relatively good,” said Perry, “but there’s a significant lack of low and mid-elevation snow.”

Colorado continues to experience hot and dry conditions.

“December 2025 was 9 degrees warmer than the statewide average and the warmest recorded since 1895,” Goble noted.

California’s snowpack, known for its boom-bust cycles, is looking better, especially in the southern Sierra Nevada, where several basins report above-average snowpack levels.

December 29th at Lake Tahoe in Glenbrook, Nevada.
Al Drago/Getty Images

However, immediate relief for the remaining areas thirsting for snow is unlikely.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts: Dry weather across much of the West for the next two weeks along with temperatures above average in the coming month.

Mort suggests that regions west of the Cascade Mountains might recover with a few significant storms later this winter or spring.

However, in most parts of eastern Washington and Idaho, “the story seems already written, making change unlikely,” he explains.

Scientists are grappling with measuring climate change impacts on snowpack, as rising temperatures alter precipitation patterns. Snowfall trends are also swayed by natural fluctuations. A 2024 study in *Nature* indicated that climate change is responsible for the snowpack decline across the Northern Hemisphere.

Mort’s data on the western United States indicates a dramatic decrease.

“The narrative becomes clearer and more somber,” he stated.

If low snow conditions persist, it will exacerbate already tense negotiations among seven Western states over the distribution of the Colorado River’s water, crucial for 40 million residents. River flows are diminishing due to prolonged drought and the fact that users are allowed to withdraw more water annually than is available.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Reclamation released draft water management strategies supporting 5.5 million acres of agricultural and hydropower operations across California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

States are actively negotiating long-term strategies for managing the river’s water to prevent Lake Mead and Lake Powell dams from experiencing “dead pool” conditions that would halt downstream river flows. However, reports indicate that these negotiations have stalled.

“In the short term, a low snow year could heighten the urgency to finalize these agreements,” said Goble.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change: The Most Important Insight of Our Time

Posted on January 23, 2026 by Igor Mitreski

New Scientist - Your premier source for the latest science news, technology advancements, health insights, and environmental developments.

January 2003: Physicist Miles Allen witnessed the River Thames flooding, threatening his home in Oxford, England. He asked, “Why did meteorologists refuse to link this incident to climate change?”

Later that year, climatologist Peter Stott from the British Met Office found himself in Italy during one of Europe’s most severe heatwaves. Instead of enjoying a vacation, he faced temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, a shocking experience for him.

Both Allen and Stott were intent on understanding climate change’s role in extreme weather events. Stott utilized existing climate models to simulate two scenarios of the 2003 heatwave: one reflecting the climate of that year and another devoid of human-induced warming.

They ran extensive model simulations and concluded that in their landmark 2004 paper in Nature, human activities have more than doubled the likelihood of experiencing a heatwave similar to that of 2003.

This groundbreaking work marked the inception of a new climate science field, which began to identify human influences on extreme weather events. Soon analyses emerged for diverse phenomena, from heatwaves to severe droughts and storms.

However, a significant challenge remained—post-event analyses often took months or years to determine the influence of climate change.

To address this, researchers, including Friederike Otto from Imperial College London, founded World Weather Attribution in 2014. This initiative facilitates swift analysis of extreme weather events, quantifying the probable impacts of climate change, with results frequently released within days.

This has dramatically altered reporting on such events globally, enabling news outlets to directly attribute deadly weather phenomena to climate change and emphasizing the real-world consequences of rising emissions.

As Otto stated, “When we began this work a decade ago, scientists and journalists maintained that individual weather events could not be blamed on climate change. That perspective has shifted immensely.”

This advancement also supports climate change litigation, with causal investigations providing evidence in numerous lawsuits against polluters worldwide. In 2022, the United Nations announced a new International Loss and Damage Fund, paving the way for climate change compensation.

In 2003, Allen queried: “Could litigation for climate change be feasible?” Thanks to developments in attribution science, the answer is now a definitive “yes.”

Topic:

Source: www.newscientist.com

Data Reveals That the First Half of 2025 Marked the Most Fatal Weather Disaster Ever Recorded.

Posted on October 22, 2025 by

The initial months of this year marked the highest incidence of weather and climate disasters on record in the United States, as revealed by a recent analysis from the nonprofit Climate Central.

This crucial information may have remained unknown to the general public. Earlier this spring, the Trump administration shut down the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s program that monitored weather patterns. This event resulted in damages exceeding $1 billion. Adam Smith, the researcher who spearheaded the analysis, left NOAA in response to this decision.

Following his departure, Climate Central, a research organization dedicated to studying climate change impacts, employed Smith to revamp a database with records dating back to 1980.

Their latest analysis indicates that 14 individual weather events caused damages exceeding $1 billion in the first half of 2025. The wildfires in Los Angeles during January represented the most expensive natural disaster thus far this year, incurring costs over $61 billion, making it the most destructive wildfire recorded.

These findings illustrate that the financial toll from weather and climate disasters continues to escalate as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, while populations migrate to areas increasingly vulnerable to wildfires and floods.

The report serves as a testament to the shift towards nonprofit organizations taking over federal initiatives that traditionally monitored and measured the effects of climate change, particularly as the Trump administration moves to scale back climate science funding. President Trump labeled climate change as a “crook’s job,” and the administration has reduced funding for clean energy initiatives while stripping the Environmental Protection Agency of its ability to control greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming.

Jennifer Brady, a senior data analyst and research manager at Climate Central involved in the project, noted that the staff was profoundly affected by the discontinuation of NOAA’s extensive disaster database, prompting them to take action.

“This has always been one of our most valued datasets. It narrates diverse stories. It articulates the narrative of climate change as well as the implications of where individuals reside and how they live at risk,” Brady stated. “I am ready to take it home.”

Kim Doster, a spokesperson for NOAA, expressed appreciation that the $1 billion disaster product has secured funding from sources other than taxpayers.

“NOAA remains committed to upholding ethical, unbiased research and reallocating resources to products that comply with executive directives aimed at restoring high standards in science,” Doster conveyed via email.

This database has been a source of political contention. House Republicans raised concerns with NOAA officials in 2024 regarding allegations of “deceptive data.” Recently, Senate Democrats proposed legislation to obligate NOAA to publish and update this dataset biannually, claiming it helps lawmakers in disaster funding decisions. However, this bill is currently stalled in committee and faces bleak prospects in the Republican-majority Senate.

Last month, officials from the Trump administration informed NBC News that NOAA terminated the database project due to uncertainty in accurately estimating disaster costs. The official highlighted that the project would incur annual costs of around $300,000, require considerable staff effort, and yield “pure information at best, with no clear objective.”

“This data is frequently utilized to bolster the claim that climate change enhances the frequency, severity, and expense of disasters, neglecting other factors like increased development in flood-prone and weather-sensitive areas as well as the cyclical variations in climate across different regions,” the official remarked at the time.

Despite this, Brady contends that the database has always acknowledged the significance of population shifts and climate change in exacerbating disaster costs.

She noted that Climate Central’s study employs the same methodologies and data sources as the NOAA database, including claims from the National Flood Insurance Program, NOAA storm event data, private insurance claims, and more.

This analysis captures the “direct costs” of disasters, such as damage to infrastructure, buildings, and crops, while omitting other considerations like loss of life, health-related disaster expenses, and economic losses to “natural capital” such as forests and wetlands. All data has been adjusted for inflation.

A recent evaluation of the first half of 2025 suggests that this year is on track to become the deadliest recorded year, despite the absence of hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.

In the previous year, NOAA reported that $27 billion in disaster costs totaled around $182.7 billion, marking the second-highest total of billion-dollar disasters in the report’s history, following the figures from 2023.

Climate Central is not alone in its efforts to reproduce the work previously undertaken by the federal government as the Trump administration cut back on climate science.

A collective of dismissed NOAA employees established climate.us, a nonprofit successor to climate.gov, the former federal site that offered data and analyses to help the general public grasp climate issues. The site went offline this summer.

Edited by Rebecca Lindsay climate.gov. Before her termination in February, along with other NOAA colleagues who co-founded the nonprofit, Lindsay stated they had raised about $160,000 with plans to host climate.gov, where they will share their archives and begin publishing new articles on climate change in the upcoming weeks.

“We are preserving this information to ensure that when people seek answers about climate status, they can find them,” Lindsey asserted.

Both the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society have announced intentions to publish a special collection of studies focused on climate change, particularly after the Trump administration informed volunteer scientists working on the National Climate Assessment that their services were no longer required.

The administration dismissed employees from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, responsible for organizing the National Climate Assessment and coordinating climate research initiatives across various federal offices.

Walter Robinson, from the American Weather Society’s publication committee, highlighted that the National Climate Assessment was “effectively stopped” due to the government’s decision, which he described as an “abandonment” of federal duty.

Though the new collection cannot replace comprehensive assessments, it aims to consolidate the latest scientific understanding on climate change impacts within the United States, he added. The research will be featured in numerous scientific journals on an ongoing basis.

“Individuals are stepping up,” Robinson remarked regarding his group’s endeavors. “As scientists, we do our utmost.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The True Cause Behind Our Troubling Weather Trends

Posted on September 18, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Feedback is New Scientist Popular Sideways monitoring the latest in science and technology news. You can email Feedback@newscientist.com to share items you think will intrigue our readers.

Rainy Cat and Dog

Christian Stichensen Nielsen appears to be a wise figure. A researcher at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, he investigates “The role of behavioral change in mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity.” In simpler terms, how can we adopt more eco-friendly lifestyles?

Feedback was intrigued by a recent LinkedIn post from Nielsen, where he seemingly discussed “A paper on how dog ownership contributes to extreme weather.” He referenced a headline from Kxan, a television station in Austin, Texas, stating that the role of dog ownership in extreme weather is vastly underestimated, according to a new study.

This naturally brought to mind the butterfly effect and chaos theory: if butterflies can flap their wings in South America and produce storms in London, could a wagging dog’s tail in Texas really trigger a catastrophic hurricane on the opposite side of the globe?

However, the focus is primarily on carbon footprint. The study published in PNAS Nexus in June aims to help individuals grasp which lifestyle choices most impact the environment. The researchers identified 26 options, which included “buying/not adopting a dog.”

Among the three options that significantly lower carbon emissions, the easiest appeared to be “sorry, but they exhibited high ‘behavioral plasticity.’” Instead of refraining from dog ownership or consuming low-carbon meat, many opted for just one flight. This perspective seems to be lost on many individuals.

This situation resembles a game of telephone, where the original message from researchers gets distorted in the media. The paper is evidently not solely about dogs; it emphasizes a climate behavior literacy intervention to enhance commitment towards effective climate action.

While it may be possible to draw a complex connection between carbon emissions owing to dog ownership (primarily from the production of dog food), we feel that Feedback is barking up the wrong tree.

Other Games

Once again, Feedback lost the game. As previously explained, humanity is perpetually engaged in this game, with the sole objective being to forget you’re playing it. Hence, you’ve just lost the game, and you’ll do so every time you visit this page or think about it for the rest of your life.

If that doesn’t sound appealing, Robin Stevens suggests potential remedies. He references the 391st issue of the webcomic XKCD, titled “Antiminde Bilos.”

This comic features the words “I just won the game. It’s okay! It’s free!” with alt-text saying: “I’m as surprised as you! I didn’t think that was viable.”

Of course, unless someone pens a follow-up stating “No, it wasn’t!”, this issue remains unresolved.

Deeper and Deeper

We’ve all encountered the burgeoning debate around fake images and videos produced by artificial intelligence, an issue destined to grow as AI technology evolves. However, readers might be less aware of the rise of fake AI journalists.

If you haven’t heard of “Margaux Blanchard,” she has emerged as a fictional freelance journalist this year. Blanchard authored articles like Married Couple Play Minecraft (Wired), Business Insider discussing remote work and having a first child at 45, Disneyland Superfan (sfgate), and Challenges Journalists Face in Guatemala (Censorship Index).

It appears Blanchard might not actually exist; her articles seem to be AI-generated, mentioning real entities like Minecraft and Disneyland. Most of her content has been subsequently retracted.

This pattern is increasingly common; on September 6th, the Washington Post reported that numerous articles have been withdrawn from various publications, stemming from a broader scheme of distributing fake stories produced by AI. Thankfully, there’s been no major event demanding reliable coverage.

Moreover, there’s a peculiar twist. In July, Feedback discussed The Velvet Sundown, a band associated with presumably AI-generated songs and promotional content (July 19). This band turned out to be linked to Andrew Freron, who initially claimed responsibility, later retreated, and then retreated again.

Freron blogged on Medium about the ordeal, with three posts: “I’m Andrew Freron, the guy managing the fake Velvet Sundown Twitter.”, “Indeed, I created Velvet Sundown.” and… wait… “Yeah, I’m Margaux Blanchard too. Oops.”

Freron alleges he was commissioned by “major media clients,” questioning, “Can a fully autonomous AI system produce top-tier, reliable news articles? Apparently, the answer is ‘yes.’” However, this all hinges on Freron’s claims, and his Medium account is sparse, raising doubts about his authenticity.

Dominique Ponsford from Press Gazette reported on the emergence of Blanchard’s story in her email newsletter, emphasizing the need for transparency.

The takeaway is clear: feedback can be unreliable. It signifies that a named journalist may not always be trustworthy, especially when hidden behind a vague or odd pseudonym.

Have you pondered about Feedback?

You can send stories to feedback via email at feedback@newscientist.com. Include your home address. Past and current Feedback segments can be found on our website.

Source: www.newscientist.com

White House Funding Cuts Endanger AI Weather Forecasting Institute

Posted on September 5, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Funding for a $20 million artificial intelligence lab aimed at enhancing weather forecasts has been halted by the Trump administration. This decision threatens both the pipeline of scientists and the nation’s capability to evaluate the effects of hurricanes and other weather-related disasters.

According to Amy McGovern, the director of the Institute for AI2ES (AI Institute for Heather and Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography), the National Science Foundation (NSF) informed the institute last month that it would not extend its five-year grant.

McGovern, who serves as a professor of meteorology and computer science at the University of Oklahoma, stated:

She emphasized that, without private funding, the institute may have to close its doors next year.

AI2ES collaborates with various universities to integrate AI into weather forecasting while evaluating its reliability.

This move to shut down AI2ES occurs as the Trump administration is heavily investing in AI and accelerating the establishment of data centers. The administration’s own AI plan advocates for the development of AI systems and programs aimed at fostering AI vocational training programs and specialized AI labs across various scientific fields.

In July, the administration unveiled an ambitious plan to achieve “global dominance” in artificial intelligence, emphasizing both innovation and its implementation—key areas of focus for AI2ES.

Alan Gerald, the former director of the National Intensive Storm Institute at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, described the cut as “dissonance” in light of this trend toward advancing technology.

The White House has not responded to requests for comments regarding this matter.

The institute was established in 2020 under the previous Trump administration as part of the NSF’s AI research labs, having received around $20 million in funding over the past five years. An NSF spokesperson, Michael England, stated that the agency holds the AI Institute’s groundbreaking work in high regard.

The National Science Foundation is fully committed to advancing artificial intelligence research through the National AI Research Institute Program, a pivotal aspect of the administration’s strategy to reinforce the US’s leadership in transformative AI.

NSF and its collaborating partners have provided funding for a network of 29 AI institutes. This year, AI2ES was one of five labs updated through the NSF, with three labs having received updates, while the status of the fourth remains pending, according to McGovern.

The Trump administration has proposed a 55% budget cut for the NSF; however, Congress has not yet ratified the budget. Senate and House appropriations have diverged from the Trump administration’s proposals, suggesting smaller cuts to scientific institutions like the NSF.

“We were an AI lab, so we believed we were secure, given our alignment with the president’s priorities,” McGovern noted.

The Trump administration’s AI plan aims for NSF and other organizations to expose K-12 students to AI careers, develop industry-driven training programs to generate AI jobs, and bolster workforce initiatives to enhance the nation’s AI talent pool.

“They desire a more robust AI-trained workforce. We were doing a significant amount of work,” McGovern emphasized.

She expressed concern that private AI firms are “poaching talent constantly,” as the institute funds around 70 positions each year at various universities, creating a talent pipeline. Among the institute’s achievements are over 130 academic publications and the development of AI tools used by the government today.

The center aided in the creation of AI tools that predict weather events potentially endangering sea turtles near Corpus Christi, Texas, making these animals susceptible to hazards onboard vessels.

Additionally, the institute developed an application enabling forecasters to “see” within hurricanes, even without a polar orbit satellite equipped with a microwave sensor capable of penetrating storm clouds. This application utilizes data from Earth-measuring satellites that cannot penetrate clouds and simulates the internal structure of a hurricane.

The center is also investigating how forecasters evaluate the reliability of AI tools developed by private companies, including Google.

“We have social scientists who engage with end-users to comprehend their trust in AI, their reservations, and what improvements are necessary,” remarked McGovern.

According to Gerald, if the center were to shut down, it wouldn’t adversely affect current weather forecasting but could limit innovation and place the nation at a disadvantage.

“Many other countries are heavily investing in AI-related weather research, like China. They risk falling behind many nations committed to enhancing weather forecasting,” Gerald concluded.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Why Are Weather Apps Often So Ineffective?

Posted on August 29, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Rain? Or shine? Why do apps often get it wrong?

Rob Watkins/Alamy

When you plan laundry, a beach trip, or a BBQ this week, the weather app is probably your first go-to. Yet, satisfaction with its accuracy often falls short. This leads us to ponder: why are weather apps so unreliable?

Even professionals like Rob Thompson from UK Reading University share this frustration. He recently experienced a night of dryness that unexpectedly turned into morning rain, illustrating a common concern. Typically, our complaints center around unforeseen rain or snow.

Our expectations of weather apps and actual weather conditions significantly contribute to this issue. However, this isn’t the sole complication. The complexity of weather systems combined with the vast amount of data required for local forecasts makes accurate predictions extremely challenging.

Thompson acknowledges that some apps have struggled with accuracy in the UK lately. This is partly due to the unpredictable nature of summer rainfall, he explains. Convection rain happens when sunlight warms the ground, causing hot, moist air to rise, cool, condense, and form isolated showers. This differs greatly from the large-scale weather fronts influenced by pressure changes that dominate other seasons.

“Imagine boiling water. You can estimate how long it will take to boil, but predicting where the bubbles will form is impossible,” Thompson states.

A similar phenomenon occurs in North America and continental Europe. However, weather forecasting tends to be a localized endeavor, so let’s concentrate on the UK to better understand why pinpointing the exact timing of weather events is so difficult.

In general, forecasting for specific towns or villages can imply an unrealistic degree of precision.

“I’m in my mid-forties. In my career, there’s no way to predict shower clouds to the extent that rain hits my village of Sinfield while missing Woodley just three miles away,” says Thompson. Apps might claim to forecast two weeks ahead, but he finds that incredibly optimistic.

The two-week forecasting limit has long been established, and accuracy tends to diminish beyond that. Some researchers are using AI and physical models to extend predictions over a month, but managing vast global data while refining local forecasts remains a challenge for weather apps.

Though Thompson utilizes weather apps, he feels nostalgic for an era when TV forecasts provided context. Meteorologists had the time and tools to explain weather fronts, detailing the certainty of rain between specific times, along with the likelihood of showers within those windows. Such nuances are crucial. In contrast, a weather app may indicate a 50% chance of rain at 2 PM and 3 PM, losing subtleties that can lead to frustration even when the data is accurate.

If you inquire about the weather in Lewisham at 4 PM and are informed of heavy rain that doesn’t materialize, it may seem like an error. Yet, wider forecasts could highlight missed opportunities due to unpredictable fronts. These predictions come with margins of error, not outright failures.

One truth is clear: app developers are often reluctant to address these challenges, choosing instead to maintain the facade of absolute accuracy. Both Google and AccuWeather did not respond to New Scientist, while Apple declined to comment but requested an interview. The Met Office similarly chose not to engage but stated, “We are constantly exploring ways to enhance our app’s forecasts and provide more weather insights.”

The BBC also refrained from comment but noted that over 12 million users appreciate the Weather app’s straightforward interface, highlighting the extensive thought and user-testing that informs its design to balance complex information with user comprehension.

Striking this balance is challenging. Even when data is flawless, simplifying information leads to the inevitable loss of detail. Many weather conditions are condensed into a few symbols, each carrying subjective meaning. For instance, at what point do clouds replace the sun symbol with white or gray clouds?

“If you and I formulate an answer and then ask our mothers for their interpretations, we might not get the same response,” Thompson explains. This compromise opens the door for ambiguity and disappointment.

Other issues persist as well. Some predictors intentionally introduce a bias, making apps slightly pessimistic about rain probability. In his research, Thompson identified a “wet bias” across multiple apps. Users who experience shining sun often find that more frustrating than those caught in an unexpected shower. As a gardener, this often aggravates me.

Meteorologist Doug Parker from the University of Leeds emphasizes that many apps save on costs by leveraging freely available global forecast data rather than fine-tuning region-specific models.

For instance, some obtain data from the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Raw global data may suffice for predicting large cyclones but falls short when considering localized rain forecasts, like at Hyde Park during lunch on a Monday.

Parker notes that when estimating the likelihood of flash floods in Africa—often a matter of life or death—some apps simply lack necessary data. He mentions several free forecast products with questionable reliability regarding Kenyan rainfall radar, stating, “It’s misleading since Kenya lacks comprehensive rainfall radar.” While satellite radars occasionally pass overhead, they don’t provide full data coverage. Without knowing the origin or reliability of these forecasts, users face significant uncertainty.

In contrast, the Met Office’s app utilizes refined models and rigorous post-processing to enhance UK weather predictions, drawing from the organization’s substantial human expertise. The app team crafts a distilled yet accurate representation of weather data through a thorough process.

“Presenting model data is a vast area of focus at the Met Office. They have a dedicated team for it,” Thompson remarks. “It’s essentially its discipline.”

Creating a weather forecast model involves integrating a huge volume of real sensor data and executing it on a supercomputer, a demanding task. Yet, this extensive work corresponds to realities we may not fully perceive. Current forecasts are better than ever and continue to improve. Our ability to predict weather today’s standards was unimaginable just decades ago.

Much of the frustration we experience with weather apps originates from misalignments in expectations regarding accuracy at a local level, oversimplified data representations, and the rising demands of a busy populace that often overlooks scientific nuances.

Parker notes that as meteorological capabilities have advanced over the decades, public expectations have swiftly adjusted, leading to an ever-increasing demand for accuracy. “Will people ever be satisfied?” he questions. “I doubt it.”

Topic:

Source: www.newscientist.com

Tamisa Skov, Space Weather Expert, Discusses the Unusual Aurora Phenomenon in This Solar Cycle

Posted on August 28, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Unexpectedly bright aurora illuminated the British skies in 2024

John Hayward/SWNS

If you have an interest in the Aurora Borealis, you’re in for a treat. Last year was a spectacular one, as auroras dazzled observers worldwide, even being visible far south with remarkable brightness. With a peak in solar activity, more stunning displays are anticipated, potentially leading to extreme geomagnetic storms. To grasp the phenomena behind these celestial light shows, one must look to the fiery depths of the sun.

Comprehending the sun’s workings is crucial to explaining various phenomena occurring in the Earth’s atmosphere and the solar system, not limited to auroras. Space Weather Physicist Tamitha Skov has been instrumental in enhancing our understanding of the sun’s mysterious operations through auroras and space weather forecasts on television and social media.

Skov discussed with New Scientist the reasons for the extreme auroras we’re witnessing and the increased frequency of space weather events. She noted that high-energy particles emitted by the sun present real risks to astronauts and spacecraft venturing beyond the protections of Earth’s magnetosphere. Scientists are continually searching for better prediction methods for these potential hazards. “Good sailors know to heed the weather; the same applies to space,” she remarked.

Alex Wilkins: What inspired you to study the sun and space weather?

Tamitha Skov: The sun is an incredibly captivating entity, maintaining its integrity for billions of years. However, my primary fascination comes from our connection to our planet. As a longtime admirer of Carl Sagan, I recall his words: “We are all made of star stuff,” which frames my curiosity about our origins and the elements that compose us.

Initially, I rekindled my interest in solar phenomena from a physical perspective, which shifted my focus to space weather. At that time, we were only beginning to understand that solar activity impacts Earth, making this area of research incredibly engaging. I’ve become absorbed in exploring the unseen electric and magnetic fields that influence the dynamics of the sun and the universe.

Recently, we’ve observed a rise in auroras, largely due to heightened solar activity. What’s happening with the sun?

We are experiencing a solar cycle. The sun goes through several cycles, with the dominant one being the Schwabe cycle, which lasts about eleven years. During the low phase, the sun is relatively quiet, resembling a hibernating bear before awakening to produce an array of solar activity.

This phenomenon is characterized by the sun’s magnetic field reversing. Imagine a lava lamp—when it’s off, the liquid remains still, showcasing a calm and orderly state. However, once activated, bubbles rise, creating a chaotic fusion of materials. This defines our sun’s state during its peak activity, when magnetic fields become disconnected, resulting in massive energy releases. Such instability breeds numerous solar eruptions as the sun reorganizes its magnetic field.

Tamitha Skov notes the recent surge in solar activity marks a return to normalcy

ng images/aramie

Are we witnessing a different phenomenon compared to prior solar cycles, given the auroras are now appearing much farther south?

To a degree, yes. It seems like various factors have come together to create an intriguing moment in time. After two solar cycles characterized by quiet activity and advancements in technology since the 1990s, we now have social media to share auroral experiences globally. Previously, during significant storms, there were no sensitive cameras available to capture these events.

In the current solar cycle, we are hitting G4 and G5 levels of storms—among the most extreme—and the availability of modern cameras enhances our ability to witness auroras, even from less vibrant displays. This may create an illusion that auroras have never appeared in the past, but science tells us they have been frequent, just not documented.

Furthermore, the Earth’s magnetic field is changing, altering the position of the auroras as particles penetrate deeper due to its weakening, which naturally slows the stirring in the Earth’s core.

Does the increased auroral activity indicate the sun is at its peak in this solar cycle?

As we reach the climax of this solar cycle, the observations lead many to believe the sun is behaving unusually. However, this notion simplifies what we’ve come to know; the previous cycles (24 and 23) were indeed the anomalies. Currently, our sun is displaying a behavior consistent with its historical patterns.

We’re now experiencing what constitutes an average cycle, not particularly intense. Previous cycles have exhibited even more activity than this one, making the notion of a prolonged inactive phase the true anomaly.

How concerned should we be about solar eruptions surpassing the intensity of the Carrington event of 1859, which resulted in widespread disruptions?

We’ve enhanced our knowledge about these events and their impacts on our infrastructure, accompanied by improved warning systems. The power grid remains a significant concern. During such storms, the Earth’s magnetic field generates strong fluctuations, creating currents similar to traffic jams in highways. When these currents encounter grounded power lines, it can overload systems that were not designed for such energy spikes.

To mitigate risks during storms, we can temporarily disconnect transformers from the ground. While this tactic carries potential dangers, it can be safer than leaving the grid fully connected. Some of these methods were validated during a G5 storm in May 2024, yielding promising results despite minor issues.

Our attention is also shifting towards GPS and navigation systems, particularly after storms during planting season last October created headaches for precision agriculture, notably impacting peanut farmers reliant on accurate geographical data. Rapidly deploying new technologies becomes crucial to address impending challenges.

Solar activity at its peak leads to the release of charged particles

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/SDO

These challenges apply to Earth, but how do they differ for spacecraft and astronauts bound for the moon or Mars?

Our atmosphere provides crucial protection that is absent on other celestial bodies. When viewing photos of the sun from the ground, one sees merely a bright orb because our atmosphere absorbs harmful radiant energy. This energy can cause radiation sickness if it reaches the surface. However, on a lunar body devoid of atmosphere, astronauts must shield themselves from radiation storms—high-energy particles unleashed from the sun. Researchers are exploring protective measures, such as constructing deep lunar bases and creating artificial magnetic fields.

Astronauts are already exposed to radiation during low Earth orbit missions, but exposure increases significantly on the moon.

Space weather has been remarkably fortunate historically. During the Apollo era in 1972, there was a severe particle radiation storm that could have been fatal for astronauts on the moon. Prolonged exposure to such radiation might have been lethal while confined in spacesuits. If that incident had unfolded differently, it would have dramatically altered the course of space exploration. Even today, these threats often go unnoticed.

While Mars possesses a weak atmosphere, radiation storms can still reach its surface. Thus, astronauts can’t just hide behind surface features; instead, they must live underground, introducing various complications to missions.

Source: www.newscientist.com

Burning Man Attendees Confront Extreme Weather Conditions

Posted on August 26, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Las Vegas – This year’s Burning Man festival attendees have not had much cooperation from Mother Nature.

Amid fierce sandstorms, high temperatures, and humidity over the weekend, there’s a looming threat of rain and potential flooding in the coming days, marking a chaotic start to the annual event in Nevada’s Black Rock Desert.

A powerful sandstorm with winds reaching 50 mph swept through Black Rock City on Saturday, creating disorder at campsites and causing significant travel delays in the area. The National Weather Service issued a Dust Storm Advisory, citing a “blowing dust wall” heading north that evening.

According to a Burning Man spokesperson, NBC News reported four minor injuries related to the wind and dust.

The storm caused traffic disruptions due to strong winds and reduced visibility, leading to the closure of Black Rock City gates. For those already inside, swirling dust overturned many campsites and scattered personal belongings.

“If you’re in Black Rock City, secure your camp and refrain from driving,” warned the official Burning Man account monitoring conditions both inside and outside Black Rock City. This was shared on x on Saturday.

Participants described the winds as relentless for over an hour, remarking, “The desert is always trying to kill you.” They expressed that it was “arguably the most frightening experience” at Burning Man. This sentiment was shared on Facebook.

Around 70,000 individuals are expected to attend the festival, which continues until September 1st.

On the festival’s first day, northern Nevada experienced humidity levels nearing 100°F, with about 57% humidity. Another dust advisory was issued that evening by the National Weather Service, predicting 50 mph winds and visibility under a mile across parts of central Nevada.

There were also possibilities of rain and thunderstorms that temporarily halted vehicle traffic by locking the gates in Black Rock City.

“The current travel time for vehicles on Gate Road is estimated at seven hours when the gates reopen,” noted a festival official. This was updated on x Sunday night.

Cleanup efforts are in progress, but the volatile weather conditions persist.

Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for Monday and beyond. The dusty lake beds are prone to flooding, and excessive rainfall could transform the playa into muddy terrain.

In 2023, torrential rains trapped thousands of Burning Man participants in thick mud. Attendees were advised to “evacuate to shelter,” leading to a report of one fatality by the Pershing County Sheriff’s Office.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The Deadliest Extreme Weather Events May Surprise You

Posted on July 24, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

In Clark County, Southern Nevada, the coroner’s office reported last week that there have been 29 heat-related fatalities since the same time frame in 2024. A study released earlier this year by Climate Central, a nonprofit organization.

The county documented its first heat-related death of 2025 on May 9th. Last year was particularly deadly for Southern Nevada, with 527 heat-related fatalities reported, according to the Clark County Coroner’s office.

As temperatures rise to nearly 110 degrees on July 14th, people seek relief along the Las Vegas Strip.
Chase Stevens/Las Vegas Review-Journal/TNS/Getty Images

The National Weather Service noted that the summer of 2024 marked the hottest on record for Southern Nevada. Las Vegas set a new high of 120 degrees Fahrenheit last July, experiencing over 100 days of triple-digit temperatures.

In Maricopa County, Arizona, 15 heat-related fatalities have been noted as of July 19th. This number is consistent with the 23 confirmed deaths by July 19, 2024, although public health records indicate that 299 deaths this year are still under review.

Last May, the Maricopa County Public Health Department reported that at least one heat-related death occurred daily in the county from June 18th to July 31st.

In 2024, the county experienced its hottest year on record, with officials confirming 602 heat-related deaths, a decline from the record 645 deaths in 2023.

Local authorities have initiated several new strategies to keep residents cool and safe during the summer. These efforts include planting trees to enhance shade in public areas and resurfacing pavements with more reflective materials to mitigate urban heat.

“For many people, heat is a nuisance, but for others, it can be a matter of life and death,” emphasized Ariel Choinard, a scientist at the Las Vegas Desert Research Institute and director of the Nevada Heat Lab.

Certain demographics face higher risks, including the elderly, individuals with chronic health issues, and young children who may struggle to articulate their feelings, she noted.

Exposure to extreme heat disproportionately impacts low-income communities, according to Choinard. While everyone in cities like Las Vegas endures the summer heat, the experience of that heat varies based on housing stability, reliance on public transport, and access to air conditioning.

A study published in August 2024 in the Journal found that from 1999 to 2023, there were 21,518 heat-related deaths in the United States. The research indicates a rise in heat-related mortality rates over the past two decades, particularly intensifying in the last seven years.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Every Chaser: Meet the Weather Detective Unraveling the Growing Hail Crisis

Posted on July 20, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

I will pursue

Between mid-May and late June, Icechip Storm Chasers explore the Front Range of the Rockies and the Central Plains, often in vehicles fortified against falling ice. Equipped with drones, balloons, and mobile Doppler radars, they enhance methodologies previously perfected by Tornado Chasers.

While one team strategically positions mobile Doppler radars to monitor storms at close proximity, other researchers focus on deploying balloons and utilizing sensors to assess the size and velocity of hail strikes.

Amid various storms, researchers have embarked on the Tempest Path to observe the life cycle of hailstones, utilizing hundreds of ping-pong ball-like devices known as Heilsondos that melt and freeze.

Convection thunderstorms with substantial internal updrafts generate hail by circulating a mix of water and ice crystals into the freezing layer above. Hail typically forms at altitudes between 20,000 to 50,000 feet, where temperatures range from -22 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit. The same updrafts can obliterate ailsond at any hail-generating region of the storm.

This is situated on the roads of Oklahoma.
Ice plants/farm

“By tracking that sensor over time, we can understand the precise path and trajectory that hail follows, at least for some storms,” stated Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University and lead researcher at ICECHIP.

“We anticipate increased instability,” Gensini remarked, with researchers believing this could foster stronger updrafts.

Such powerful updrafts can sustain larger hail for extended periods, allowing ice balls or discs to gain mass before gravity pulls them down.

“If you use a hair dryer and direct it towards the edge, it’s easy to balance a ping pong ball with that airstream,” Jensee described. “But how do you balance a softball? A stronger updraft is necessary.”

Storm modeling indicates that more potent updrafts could increase the likelihood of large hail in the future, even though they may lower the overall chance of hail. Researchers predict smaller hail will diminish, as it possesses less mass and often dissolves before reaching the ground.

“There’s a sort of dichotomy. Yes, there are fewer people around, but warmer atmospheres with very strong updrafts yield even more significant hail,” Jensee explained.

Throughout their field campaign, researchers collected over 10,000 hailstones in dry ice chests to evaluate their computer models against observed growth dynamics.

“The hail data is somewhat concerning,” Jensini remarked about previous records, noting an increase in reports of 2-inch, 3-inch, and 4-inch hail. However, it’s unclear whether this is due to more people chasing storms and discovering larger hail or if the atmosphere is genuinely producing larger hailstones.

Gensini conveyed that the new measurements will enable researchers to correlate airborne conditions with ground findings, leading to enhanced forecasts and reduced economic impacts.

In many regions where Icechip operates, agriculture is prevalent, according to Karen Kosiba, an atmospheric scientist with flexible radar teams at the University of Illinois.

“It influences their crops and machinery, prompting them to seek shelter,” she stated. “Weather holds numerous economic implications.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

EPA Leaders Pledge “Complete Transparency” on Geoengineering Amidst Ongoing Weather Conspiracy Theories

Posted on July 11, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

The individual in green is R-Tenn. He mentioned that Sen. Tim Burchett is a co-sponsor of the initiative. The barchet is spreading equally perplexing assertions regarding severe weather.

A spokesman for Greene stated that lawmakers have been “discussing this matter for quite some time” and asserted that the bill is unrelated to the floods in Texas.

In a follow-up email, Greene communicated with Zeldin and expressed encouragement over his actions.

“This is an uncontrolled experiment conducted in the atmosphere without consent. It’s reckless, dangerous, and must be halted,” she stated in an email.

Burchett’s office did not immediately respond to inquiries for comment.

Following Milton and Helen, NOAA issued a factsheet in October 2024, aiming to debunk “weather modification claims” that emerged after two storms impacted Florida and North Carolina. The agency declared it would not “fund or engage in cloud seeding or any weather modification projects.”

Zeldin’s reference to more fringe theories regarding extreme weather coincides with the Trump administration’s reduction in climate change research funding and the removal of a website hosting the government’s climate assessment. President Donald Trump referred to climate change as a hoax, despite scientists uncovering stronger evidence linking the intensity and frequency of extreme weather to global warming.

Decades of research on weather modification have often fueled conspiracy theories.

From 1962 to 1982, NOAA participated in a project called Storm Fury, which aimed to investigate whether hurricane intensity could be altered. This study did not achieve its goals and was ultimately discontinued. NOAA has not undertaken similar research since. According to the factsheet.

Cloud seeding is a weather modification technology currently utilized. This practice has existed since the 1950s and typically involves dispersing silver iodide into clouds to extract moisture from the atmosphere, resulting in additional precipitation. Presently, cloud seeding programs are mainly focused on enhancing water supplies in western states. Companies are required to notify authorities before implementing such measures.

“Cloud seeding doesn’t generate water; it aids surrounding clouds in releasing 5-15% of their moisture. However, Texas was already experiencing 100% humidity, extreme moisture, and storms. The clouds didn’t require assistance,” Cappucci stated.

The proliferation of these claims coincides with escalating threats directed at meteorologists.

Geoengineering is a legitimate scientific field; however, assertions regarding its capability to control significant weather patterns and generate adverse weather are unfounded. Most geoengineering techniques remain theoretical and untested, with federal researchers making only tentative steps to evaluate their viability. Atmospheric scientists report no evidence of any large-scale programs.

Last year, in Alameda, California, a small test project in geoengineering, referred to as Marine Cloud Brightening, was disrupted by community protestors, despite researchers demonstrating its safety.

Psychotherapist Jonathan Alpert described how conspiracy theories tend to surge, particularly during moments of weather events that leave individuals feeling powerless.

“Conspiracy theories offer emotionally gratifying narratives. They restore a sense of control by framing phenomena as intentional actions by powerful entities rather than unpredictable chaotic events,” Alpert told NBC News. “In this context, believing ‘someone is doing this to us’ is more bearable than facing the idea that ‘no one is in charge.'”

While some interpret the EPA’s actions as a sign of transparency, others view it merely as a recent political maneuver to sidestep critical environmental issues.

“Some individuals question whether the bird is real or not. Will that become your next focus?” Congressman Don Beyer D-Va remarked in response to Zeldin’s comments on Thursday morning. He went on to comment on X regarding the EPA guidelines, “How much taxpayer money will be expended on this?”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

The US is Experiencing More Frequent Extreme Weather Events, Yet Attitudes and Actions Remain Unchanged

Posted on July 10, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

In the wake of a deadly flood in central Texas in 1987, some demonstrated their resilience against the fury of Mother Nature. This month’s devastating flash floods inundated the area with an astonishing volume of rain in a matter of hours, resulting in over 100 fatalities.

Prior to 2021, the typically temperate regions of the Pacific Northwest and Canada faced a Killer Heat Wave, but they were not exempt. Tropical Hawaii, once distant from drought-induced wildfires, faced its own challenges. That changed. Moreover, many inland communities in North Carolina considered hurricanes a coastal dilemma until the remnants of Helen roared in unexpectedly last year.

The wreckage of a structure in North Carolina’s Bat Cave, ravaged by flooding from Hurricane Helen.
Mario Tama/Getty Images File

According to climate scientists, climate change is driving an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Government data supports this evidence. Nonetheless, both people and governments tend to overlook this reality, clinging to outdated notions and failing to prepare for a concerning future, a meteorology expert pointed out to The Associated Press.

“With climate change, what was once considered extreme is now the average, and events that were once rare within decades are becoming new extremes,” stated Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University. “We are now experiencing phenomena that were virtually unprecedented.”

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, summer averages show that Extreme Climate Indicators are tracking hurricanes, heavy rainfall, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that are 58% higher than those recorded in the 1980s.

Despite the alarming trends, society is failing to respond adequately, Oppenheimer remarked.

“There’s ample evidence that we’re complacent, yet these risks are approaching us like an oncoming freight train, and we are just standing on the tracks, unaware,” he explained.

Shifting Public Perception

While climate change is a paramount issue, experts warn that our responses and tendency to disregard changes may exacerbate the situation.

Marshall Shepherd, a meteorology professor at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society, stated that people’s decisions are often influenced by their experiences during prior extreme weather incidents, even those that did not directly affect them. This induces unwarranted optimism, as they assume that conditions will remain manageable despite increasingly severe storms.

He referred to the flooding events in Texas as a prime example.

A vehicle and fallen trees were overturned on the Guadalupe River in Carville following a flash flood.
Ronaldo Schemidt / AFP -Getty Images

“This area is known as flash flood alley. Flooding is a common occurrence here. … I often hear overly optimistic statements from locals.”

Even those in regions not typically prone to disasters must rethink their perspectives on calamities, advised Kim Klockow McClain, a social scientist focused on extreme weather at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which specializes in disaster warnings and risk communication.

Her advice is straightforward: If you’re accustomed to minor flooding, you should take note of events like those in Texas and recognize that conditions are changing.

Ignoring Reality Won’t Eliminate It

Following devastating storms and wildfires, individuals who have survived often believe such events won’t recur. This mindset can be a coping mechanism, yet the reality is that extreme weather occurrences are becoming more frequent and widespread, complicating effective preparedness.

According to Susan Cutter, co-director of the Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina:

Lori Peak, director of the University of Colorado’s Natural Disaster Center, indicates that surviving past extreme events can mislead people into thinking they are immune to future disasters. This kind of overconfidence can be hazardous. “Just because I survived fires, floods, hurricanes, or tornadoes does not guarantee that the next incident will mirror the last,” she cautioned.

What is Happening?

As weather patterns grow increasingly extreme, scientists observe that our capacities to adapt are lagging behind.

“Our vulnerability is heightened as our nation’s infrastructure ages, and more individuals are residing in potential danger zones,” Peak noted. “With population growth, more people live in perilous areas, particularly along the coast.”

Homes and buildings decimated by the wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii, in 2023.
Patrick T. Fallon / AFP -Getty Images File

The Trump administration’s funding cuts have threatened critical agencies responsible for climate research, disaster alerts, and responses—including the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey Research Institute—further worsening the situation, according to several specialists.

Experts assert that knowledgeable and skilled personnel have already departed from these bodies, and it may take years to regain that expertise and skill set.

“We are dismantling the capabilities that will be increasingly necessary in the future,” Oppenheimer cautioned.

Peak emphasized the need for nations to anticipate and prepare for worst-case scenarios instead of merely reflecting on past events.

“This is our future,” Peak concluded. “We are clearly entering an era marked by escalating fires, floods, and heat waves.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

National Weather Service Issues Flood Warnings Amid Renewed Criticism of Trump’s Staff Cuts

Posted on July 7, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

The deadly floods in Texas have ignited fresh concerns regarding cuts made to the National Weather Service by the Trump administration, which has resulted in fewer warnings and left countless individuals scrambling for safety.

By Sunday evening, at least 79 fatalities had been reported, with many more unaccounted for after a sudden rise in the Texas Hill Country, a region infamously dubbed “Flash Flood Alley.”

Hours following the early morning floods on Friday, some Texas officials voiced their discontent with the NWS, claiming the rainfall predictions were understated. Councillor Jack Kimble, D-Calif., shared on X Saturday his critical remarks, which were in response to a post by Vice President JD Vance. On Sunday, President Donald Trump dismissed the notion of investigating whether NWS cuts contributed to the disaster, while the White House emphasized that he “hates” the idea that the cuts are linked to this tragedy.

Independent meteorologists and former NWS officials have stated that the warnings issued in anticipation of the floods were as timely and accurate as possible given the available real-time weather data. They noted that predicting extreme rainfall and flash floods in short timeframes is inherently challenging, making it difficult to ensure emergency warnings reach those most in danger.

“The forecasts were accurate. The warnings were worthy,” remarked Wisconsin meteorologist Chris Vaguski. “The challenge always lies in ensuring the message reaches the people.”

Despite concerns over leadership shortages in the NWS due to increased staffing gaps, meteorologists do not believe that an understaffed office was a significant factor in the tragic outcomes.

Tom Fahy, Legislative Director of the National Weather Service Employee Union, indicated that the San Antonio Weather Office lacked two vital permanent positions: science officers (responsible for training and implementing new technologies) and warning coordination meteorologists (who coordinate with media and serve as the office’s spokesperson). However, they have staff positioned in leadership roles. Overall, Fahy reported that there were sufficient meteorologists on hand to manage the incident.

“WFO” [weather forecasting offices], Fahy noted on Saturday, expressed concern regarding the absence of unfilled senior positions and effective leadership.

In a statement, the National Weather Service expressed its “grief over the tragic loss of life in Kerr County.” Although the agency did not address staffing issues, it provided a comprehensive timeline of alerts that were issued.

Some officials in Texas have suggested that the forecasts from the National Weather Center did not adequately convey the storm’s threat, while others acknowledged the agency’s timely alerts.

“The initial forecast received from the National Weather Service on Wednesday anticipated 4-8 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 3-6 inches in the Hill Country,” stated W. Nim Kid, chief of Texas emergency management, during a press conference on Friday. “The actual rainfall in these specific areas exceeded our predictions.”

According to a timeline from the National Water Center, Kerrville, Texas, and surrounding areas were at risk of flash flooding on Thursday, July 3. The NWS Austin/San Antonio issued flood monitoring alerts at 1:18 PM on Thursday, which continued through Friday morning. An emergency flash flood warning was released at 1:14 AM in Kerr County.

Travis County Judge Andy Brown commended the National Weather Service for its warnings, while Eric Carter, the county’s emergency management coordinator, described the service’s efforts as “exceptionally proactive.”

The agency highlighted that it issued flash flood warnings at 1:14 AM on Friday, categorizing the threat as “substantial” or “catastrophic,” and activated wireless emergency alerts on mobile devices.

“The flash flood warning was issued on the evening of July 3 and early morning of July 4, providing over three hours of preliminary lead time,” the statement read.

Concerns regarding staffing and performance arose following the Trump administration’s dismissal of National Weather Service employees this spring, who were offered early retirement and buyouts. By early June, the NWS had lost around 600 personnel, resulting in many seasoned employees exiting and leaving newer or less experienced staff members.

Some NWS offices have seen staffing reductions exceeding 40%, with agents pressed to take on crucial roles in forecasting operations. Consequently, at least eight offices ceased 24-hour operations this spring, with some unable to issue weather warnings.

In May, over 40% of the nation’s weather forecast offices reported staffing rates exceeding 20%. These cuts prompted all living former NWS supervisors to express their distress over staffing levels and ongoing budget reductions through letters.

“Our greatest fear is that insufficient staffing in weather offices could lead to unnecessary fatalities. This concern resonates deeply with those on the frontlines of forecasting, as well as with individuals relying on their expertise,” they articulated.

Compared to many forecast offices nationwide, Texas offices are relatively well-staffed.

Fahy mentioned that the San Antonio/Austin weather office operates with 11 meteorologists, which is down six from the usual full staff of 26. Warnings issued in central Texas indicate that four positions remain vacant at the standard staff level of 23. The office has been without a weather officer for an extended period and lacks senior hydrologists as well.

“In San Angelo, we have no hydrologists, which poses a significant issue,” Fahy explained, noting that hydrologists are essential for analyzing stream flow and managing flood responses.

Mayor Dalton Rice of Kerrville stated that the city will investigate whether emergency notifications are adequate to alert residents effectively.

“We recognize that questions are being raised regarding emergency notifications, but it’s premature to speculate. Our local partners are dedicated to thoroughly reviewing the events and systems involved,” Rice stated at a press conference on Sunday. “In due time, we will take decisive measures to bolster our preparedness moving forward, ensuring the safety of all community members.”

An independent meteorologist, who has criticized NWS staffing and budget cuts previously, stated that federal meteorologists on-site provided timely warnings.

Alan Gerald, former director of analysis at NOAA’s National Intense Storm Institute, noted in a blog post that the Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office effectively communicated risks swiftly, despite experiencing leadership shortages.

“While it is less than ideal to have these positions vacant for extended periods, it can negatively affect operations on some level,” Gerald wrote. “However, based on the actual warning services provided by the NWS during the incident, they performed admirably, delivering the expected levels of warnings and alerts for events of this nature.”

Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza indicated there was no evidence suggesting that staffing issues or budget cuts contributed to the tragedy.

Wisconsin meteorologist Vaguski noted the inherent difficulties in predicting flash floods and extreme rainfall.

“Quantitative precipitation forecasting, or QPF, is among the most challenging tasks for a meteorologist. It’s crucial to determine the right location, the right volume, and the right timing,” Vaguski elaborated. “They were issuing alerts because they understood the significance of the event.”

Vaguski explained that remnants of the tropical storm transferred to Texas brought tropical moisture that fueled severe thunderstorms, resulting in extreme rainfall across central Texas.

He also added that the predictors indicated increased concerns aligned with findings from weather models.

Texas Hill Country is often labeled “Flash Flood Alley” due to its terrain, which exacerbates river swelling rapidly. Understanding precise rainfall locations is key to predicting flood impacts.

“Forecasts for this week predicted 4-7 and even 5-9 inches of rain, with some models suggesting even higher amounts. Unfortunately, science has yet to evolve to the point where we can accurately predict rainfall to a precise latitude and longitude,” he added.

Predicting when the heaviest rainfall will occur and when flooding starts is particularly challenging for forecasters, Vaguski noted.

“Receiving severe weather alerts in the middle of the night presents significant challenges. Historically, most tornado and flood fatalities occur during this period when people are asleep. It’s difficult to detect tornadoes and rising water,” Vaguski expressed. “Did people activate emergency alerts on their devices?”

Addressing the reduction and cutbacks at the National Weather Service, Vaguski asserted that he doesn’t believe better staffing would have notably hindered the tragedy.

“These are crucial positions that need filling,” he remarked, adding, “but they likely did not significantly contribute to the incident.”

Vaguski indicated that substantial improvement is needed in quantitative precipitation forecasting to help forecasters identify threats earlier. However, such advancements are threatened by potential NOAA funding cuts, he cautioned.

“The major concern is if the latest budget proposal is approved by Congress as the administration wishes, it will shut down all NOAA research labs vital for enhancing predictions.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Extreme Winter Weather Not Caused by Wavy Jet Streams

Posted on June 26, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Wavy polar jet streams can lead to icy storms extending further south

Images of the history of science / Alamy Stock Photos

SEI 256798260 — Wavy polar jet streams can lead to icy storms extending further south

Images of the history of science / Alamy Stock Photos

Recent studies indicate that the increasingly erratic winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere is not solely due to more pronounced wavy polar jet streams.

The Arctic jet stream functions as a wind current that helps to maintain the balance between temperate and cold air in the Arctic region.

For over a decade, some researchers have engaged in discussions regarding the effects of the warm Arctic on the jet stream. This warming has reportedly intensified in winter, leading to severe storms that carry snow and ice much further south than usual.
However, doubts persist about this theory.

Testing this hypothesis has proven challenging due to limited satellite data and the natural fluctuations of the jet stream during winter.

Researchers like Erich Osterberg from Dartmouth University have sought to determine whether the recent behavior of the jet stream deviates from the long-term average.

Since satellite observations of the jet stream began only in 1979, researchers leveraged temperature and atmospheric pressure data extending back to 1901 to reconstruct the movement of polar jets across the United States throughout the 20th century.

They discovered that polar jets exhibited wave-like patterns during various periods, indicating that the current erratic behavior may not be unprecedented. In fact, at times, the winter jet stream was even more undulating than it is today. “What we’re observing with the jet stream now is not particularly unusual when you consider the broader context of the 20th century,” Osterberg states.

The winters in the Northern Hemisphere are becoming warmer and wetter, a trend emphasized by Osterberg even as climate change continues to provoke more severe storms and precipitation. “It’s evident that climate change is influencing extreme weather events significantly,” he remarks. “However, in the context of winter jet streams, these changes don’t appear to be a fundamental factor.”

Similarly, Tim Woolling from Oxford University highlights the importance of long-term data in identifying shifts in polar jet stream behavior, noting its significant variability in the short to medium term. “Utilizing extensive data records and diverse methodologies reveals that today’s North American winter jet patterns are not necessarily worse than in previous decades,” he explains.

Contrastingly, during the Northern Hemisphere summer, emerging evidence suggests that climate change has elevated tropical temperatures, leading to broader polar waves in warmer months. “In summer, it seems that the jet stream undergoes a fundamental shift in behavior, with larger waves leading to intense heat waves, droughts, and wildfires,” Osterberg adds. “This phenomenon appears to be linked to climate change.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

What is a Heat Dome? Understanding Hot and Humid Weather Conditions

Posted on June 26, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Sweltering and humid conditions have impacted nearly the entire eastern U.S. this week, triggered by “heat domes” settling over various regions.

On Wednesday, a heat advisory impacted approximately 150 million individuals, with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees Fahrenheit spreading through the Ohio Valley and along the East Coast. The National Weather Service predicts that “extremely dangerous heat” will persist until Thursday.

But what exactly is a heat dome, and how does it contribute to extreme heat?

Heat domes form when a strong high-pressure system remains stationary over an area, trapping warm air underneath like a lid on a pot.

These thermal domes are typically influenced by the jet stream’s behavior. The jet stream is a fast-moving ribbon of air that flows from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, impacting weather patterns.

The jet stream is powered by the temperature disparity between the chilly polar regions and warm southern air masses. As it travels around the globe, it can create ripples that form troughs and ridges, leading to unusual weather phenomena.

For instance, certain ripples can intensify cold snaps, while others can move and amplify heat, resulting in higher humidity levels.

Heat domes can persist for days or even weeks, contributing to prolonged heat waves that can be deadly. Heat-related illnesses and fatalities can impact individuals of all ages, but children, those with pre-existing health conditions, and older adults are especially vulnerable to sudden temperature spikes.

Research indicates that climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves globally. The hottest years on record since 1850 have all occurred within the last decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Some respite is anticipated later this week across the Midwest and East Coast, although temperatures are expected to remain high in the days ahead.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

California Democrats Urge Return of National Weather Service Staff

Posted on May 31, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

California House Democrats have urged the National Weather Service (NWS) to reinstate terminated employees and initiate the hiring of new forecasters, following the suspension of 24-hour operations for weather predictions in Sacramento and Hanford.

In a letter addressed to deputy administrators of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Howard Luttonick and Commerce Secretary Laura Grimm, 23 Congressional Democrats criticized recent reductions in weather services, warning that it signals the onset of a public safety crisis with serious implications. The Weather Services division falls under NOAA, which is managed by the Department of Commerce.

“We demand the immediate reinstatement of all workers who have been terminated in these offices, the lifting of the federal employment freeze at NWS, and the establishment of adequate staffing at the Sacramento and Hanford weather forecasting offices to maintain their 24/7 operations,” the council members stated.

Since January, over 500 staff members from the Weather Bureau have departed the agency due to widespread layoffs initiated by the Trump administration, targeting many probationary positions. As a result, approximately 43% of the nation’s 122 weather offices are operating with staffing levels exceeding 20%. Independent meteorologists caution that these cuts may lead to delays in weather predictions and warnings, raising public safety concerns that have pressured the administration.

Legislators from California noted that the weather forecasting offices in Hanford and Sacramento were particularly hard hit, compromising their ability to provide continuous staffing around the clock.

“Currently, the Sacramento office has seven vacant meteorologist positions out of 16, while the Hanford office is short eight out of 13. Both offices are functioning at half their capacity as they approach the peak of wildfire season,” the letter states. “If the NWS Weather Forecast Offices in Sacramento and Hanford cannot monitor overnight conditions across the entire Central Valley, it jeopardizes the safety of our residents.”

The Weather Bureau typically provides meteorologists to assist firefighters during the wildfire season.

“This is an imprudent and unwarranted risk that does not serve the American public,” the letter declared. “Halving the staffing levels in offices responsible for forecasting wildfires, atmospheric rivers, and natural disasters endangers lives and undermines government efficiency.”

NOAA communications director Kim Doster reaffirmed that the NWS is dedicated to prioritizing public safety.

“The National Weather Service continues to fulfill its core mission amidst recent restructuring and is taking measures to prioritize critical research and services necessary for keeping American citizens safe and informed,” Doster stated in an email.

The Hanford office of the Weather Bureau is situated in the San Joaquin Valley, not far from the site of the longstanding Lake Tulare reconstruction in 2023.

The Central Valley region is responsible for producing 40% of the country’s fruits and nuts, according to the US Geological Survey. Farmers in the Central Valley depend on accurate forecasts for making informed decisions about planting, irrigation, and harvesting.

In the meantime, Sacramento forecasters are predicting extreme heat and a heightened risk of wildfires this weekend, indicating an early onset of the wildfire season.

Representative Jim Costa, who represents parts of the San Joaquin Valley and has received forecasts from the Hanford office, facilitated a letter to NOAA. Other notable signatories include Councillors Nancy Pelosi, Eric Swalwell, and Doris Matsui, amongst the 22 others.

Pressure has been mounting for months, calling for reductions in weather services.

One external meteorologist reported that weather balloon launches have been curtailed to about 12 understaffed offices, noting that missed balloon releases hinder better understanding of tornado risks during thunderstorm events near Omaha, Nebraska.

Following this incident, Nebraska Representative Mike Flood intervened with the administration and obtained additional forecasters temporarily assigned to an office near Omaha.

Earlier this month, five former directors of the Weather Bureau cautioned that further staffing cuts could lead to unnecessary fatalities.

“Our greatest fear is that the weather offices are severely understaffed, resulting in unnecessary loss of life,” wrote a former superintendent who served from 1988 to 2022.

NOAA has attempted to address the staffing shortage by temporarily reallocating personnel to fill gaps in the workforce and exploring more permanent reallocations within the agency.

Approximately two weeks ago, NOAA considered transferring 76 meteorologists and a total of 155 staff members to play a vital role.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

National Weather Service Issues Warning: Radio Interruptions Expected as Thunderstorms Approach Alabama

Posted on May 19, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

A significant storm is forecasted to impact Alabama this week, as the National Weather Service has halted radio services that deliver vital weather updates for the area.

The Birmingham NWS office announced it will conduct “mandatory scheduled updates” to the advanced weather interactive processing system, which is essential for displaying and integrating weather and water information and disseminating critical alerts like weather and water warnings to the public.

These updates are set to take place from May 19th to May 21st. During this period, the Birmingham office will manage the NOAA weather radio transmitter. The NWS states.

Despite the software updates, the NWS assures that weather forecasts, advisories, clocks, and warnings will still be available. However, radio outages are expected to affect transmitters in northern and central Alabama, including areas like Winfield, Wannta, Birmingham, Aniston, Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery, Auburn, and Texasville.

The NWS did not provide immediate comments, but the agency stated online that the Birmingham forecast office will remain operational while the software updates proceed. Additionally, forecasting duties will also be carried out at the backup office in Peachtree City, Georgia.

NOAA Weather Radio forms a nationwide network of stations that relay official forecasts, weather alerts, and other information from the National Weather Service. This continuous service covers warnings about various threats, including earthquakes, avalanches, oil spills, and public safety announcements.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which supervises the National Weather Service, indicated that NOAA weather radio stations nationwide will undergo necessary updates on a rolling basis for two to three days leading up to June.

“The NWS Local Office intends to inform listeners both on-air and through the website when updates are scheduled,” agency officials noted. According to the NOAA Weather Radio website.

Alabama is among several states facing the threat of severe storms this week, with thunderstorms on Tuesday predicted to produce damaging hail and tornadoes, with wind gusts reaching 60 mph across northwest and central Alabama.

This week’s radio service disruption aligns with Alabama’s severe weather forecast, but it is not the only state bracing for harsh conditions.

An estimated 31 million people are susceptible to severe storms on Monday, stretching from northern Texas to Iowa. Potential hazards include strong winds, large hail, and tornadoes from Monday afternoon into the evening.

On Tuesday, the severe storm outlook will slightly shift, affecting areas from northern Louisiana to Indiana, with risks of large hail, winds, and strong tornadoes re-emerging.

In the meantime, a heat wave has driven temperatures into the late 90s in parts of Texas and Florida, reaching triple digits earlier this week.

These alerts follow a weekend of violent storms, leading to reports of tornadoes in at least 10 states, including Texas, Kansas, Missouri, and Kentucky, with a confirmed toll of at least 28 weather-related fatalities.

This deadly storm arrives as NOAA strives to fill critical forecasting positions nationwide following significant budget cuts to the National Weather Service during the Trump administration. Critics warn that the current staffing shortages in the NWS could pose a serious public safety risk, particularly with hurricane season on the horizon, increasing wildfire threats, and persisting extreme heat this summer.

Source: www.nbcnews.com

NOAA Speeds Up Hiring for Forecast Positions Following National Weather Service Cuts

Posted on May 17, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

As some weather forecast offices discontinue overnight staffing, the National Weather Service is swiftly reassigning personnel internally, working to fill over 150 vacancies and address critical staffing gaps.

On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration considered initiating a “reallocation period” to fill key positions that have remained unstaffed since the Trump administration’s decisions to dismiss probationary employees and incentivize veteran federal workers to retire early within the National Weather Service (NWS).

The agency is actively recruiting to fill five pivotal meteorologist roles overseeing field offices, including locations in Lake Charles, Louisiana; Houston, Texas; and Wilmington, Ohio.

Meanwhile, at least eight out of 122 weather forecasting offices nationwide—including those in Sacramento, California; Goodland, Kansas; and Jackson, Kentucky—have announced no plans to operate overnight or reduce overnight services in the coming six weeks, according to Tom Fahy, legislative director of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, which monitors staffing levels for the agency.

Critics of the recent cuts argue that the efforts to reassign meteorologists and other staff indicate severe reductions in services, negatively impacting vital public safety operations.

“This has never occurred before. We have always been an agency dedicated to providing 24/7 service to American citizens,” Fahy stated. “The potential risk is extremely high. If these cuts continue within the National Weather Service, lives could be lost.”

The National Weather Service acknowledged adjustments to its service levels and staffing but asserted that it continues to fulfill its mission and maintain the accuracy of forecasts.

“NOAA and NWS are dedicated to minimizing the impact of recent staffing changes to ensure that core mission functions persist,” the agency stated. “These efforts encompass temporary modifications to service levels and both temporary and permanent internal reallocations of meteorologists to offices with urgent needs.”

Fahy revealed that 52 of the nation’s 122 weather forecasting offices currently have staffing vacancy rates exceeding 20%.

The latest update on field office leadership, published on Wednesday, highlighted vacancy challenges, with 35 meteorologist positions at forecast offices remaining unfilled.

Since the new administration assumed power, the National Weather Service has reduced its workforce by more than 500 employees through voluntary early retirement packages for senior staff and the dismissal of probationary hires.

“Our greatest fear is that the weather offices will remain extremely understaffed, prompting unnecessary loss of life,” the director expressed earlier this month.

Recently retired NWS employees have voiced concerns that staffing levels have dropped below critical thresholds amid service freezes and the dismissal of many early-career professionals in probationary roles.

Alan Gerald, a former director at NOAA’s National Intensive Storm Institute who accepted early retirement in March, likened the NWS’s reassignment strategies to “deck chair relocation,” arguing that they fail to solve fundamental issues.

“They are merely shifting personnel from one office to another, which might address short-term crises, but that’s no sustainable solution,” Gerald remarked. “There’s no real influx of new staff.”

Brian Lamare, who recently retired from the Tampa Bay Area Weather Office in Florida, understands the desire to modernize and streamline services.

In fact, Lamare was involved in efforts to reorganize certain aspects of the service prior to the Trump administration.

The agency had plans to modernize its staffing structures by launching a “mutual assistance” system, allowing local forecast offices to request and offer aid during severe weather events or periods of understaffing.

“Many of these initiatives are now being expedited due to urgency,” Lamare commented. “When rearranging your living room furniture, you don’t set the house on fire—that’s the situation we are facing.”

Lamarre emphasized the necessity for the NWS to resume hiring as numerous forecasters in their 50s and 60s opted for voluntary retirement, leading to the loss of extensive experience. Concurrently, the agency has reduced its cohort of probationary employees, many of whom are just starting their careers.

“Eliminating probationary positions severely limits the agency’s future potential,” Lamare stated. “That’s where fresh, innovative talent is cultivated, making recruitment essential.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

Weather Update from Titan, Saturn’s Moon: Partly Cloudy with Intermittent Methane Rain

Posted on May 15, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

With data from the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope and the Keck II telescope, astronomers have found signs of cloud convection in Titan’s northern hemisphere. The majority of Titan’s lakes and oceans are situated in this region, replenished by sporadic rains of methane and ethane. Webb has also identified essential carbon-containing molecules that offer insight into Titan’s intricate atmospheric chemical processes.

These Titan images taken by Webb on July 11, 2023 show the Keck II telescope on July 14, 2023 (lower row), showing methane clouds (white arrows) appearing at various altitudes in Titan’s northern hemisphere. Image credit: NASA/ESA/CSA/STSCI/KECK Observatory.

Titan is a fascinating world enveloped in a yellowish smog haze. Its atmosphere, primarily composed of nitrogen, experiences weather patterns similar to those on Earth, such as clouds and rain.

In contrast to Earth, where weather is influenced by the evaporation and condensation of water, Titan’s chilly environment features a methane cycle.

Methane evaporates from the surface, rising into the atmosphere to condense into clouds.

Occasionally, icy particles fall to solid surfaces as a form of cold, oily rain.

“The Goddard Space Flight Center involves astronomers,” stated Dr. Connn Nixon, an astronomer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

Utilizing both Webb and Keck II telescopes, Dr. Nixon and his team observed Titan in November 2022 and July 2023.

These observations revealed cloud formations in the northern and high northern latitudes of Titan, coinciding with its current summer, and indicated that these clouds were gradually rising to higher altitudes.

Previous research identified cloud convection in southern latitudes, marking the first evidence of similar convection in the northern hemisphere.

This finding is crucial, as most of Titan’s lakes and oceans are located in the northern hemisphere, making evaporation from these bodies of water a primary source for methane.

On Earth, the troposphere, the lowest atmospheric layer, extends to about 12 km in altitude.

However, due to Titan’s low gravity, its troposphere stretches to approximately 45 km.

By utilizing various infrared filters, Webb and Keck explored different atmospheric depths on Titan, enabling astronomers to estimate cloud altitudes.

Researchers noted that clouds seemed to migrate to higher altitudes over a few days, although direct observation of precipitation remains elusive.

“Webb’s observation occurred at the end of Titan’s summer, a season we couldn’t monitor during the NASA/ESA Cassini-Huygens mission,” remarked ESA researcher Dr. Thomas Cornet.

“Combined with ground-based observations, Webb is providing us with valuable new insights into Titan’s atmosphere. This ESA mission could explore the Saturn system in greater detail in the future.”

Titan is of significant astrobiological interest due to its intricate organic (carbon-containing) chemistry, despite its frigid temperatures of minus 180 degrees Celsius.

Organic molecules are the building blocks of life on Earth, and studying them in an environment like Titan may help scientists uncover the processes that contributed to the emergence of life on our planet.

Methane serves as a fundamental component driving much of Titan’s chemistry.

In Titan’s atmosphere, methane is broken down by sunlight or energetic electrons from Saturn’s magnetosphere, leading to the synthesis of ethane-like substances alongside more complex carbon-containing molecules.

The data from Webb provided a crucial missing piece for comprehending these chemical processes: the definitive detection of methyl radicals (CH)₃, which form when methane breaks apart.

Identifying this compound signifies that scientists can now observe chemical reactions occurring on Titan for the first time, not just the initial ingredients or the end products.

“We are very enthusiastic about this world,” said Dr. Stephanie Millam, a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

This hydrocarbon chemistry will have lasting implications for Titan’s future.

As methane decomposes in the upper atmosphere, some of it recombines to form other molecules, eventually reaching Titan’s surface in one chemical form or another, while some hydrogen escapes into space.

As a result, methane reserves will diminish over time unless there is a source to replenish them.

A similar phenomenon has occurred on Mars, where water molecules were broken down, and the resulting hydrogen was lost to space, culminating in the arid desert planet we observe today.

“In Titan, methane is continuously consumable,” Dr. Nixon explained.

“It could be constantly replenished from the crust and interior for billions of years.”

“If not, eventually it will all disappear, leaving Titan as a desolate landscape of dust and dunes.”

These findings were published in the journal Natural Astronomy.

____

Kanixon et al. The atmosphere of Titan in late northern summer from JWST and Keck’s observations. Nature Astronomy Published online on May 14th, 2025. doi:10.1038/s41550-025-02537-3

Source: www.sci.news

U.S. Government Ceases Monitoring Costs of Extreme Weather Events

Posted on May 9, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on Thursday that they will cease tracking the nation’s most costly disasters, those inflicting damages of at least $1 billion.

This decision means insurance firms, researchers, and policymakers will lack crucial data necessary for understanding trends associated with significant disasters like hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires, which have become more prevalent this year. While not all disasters stem from climate change, such occurrences are intensifying as global temperatures rise.

This latest move marks another step by the Trump administration to restrict or eliminate climate research. Recently, the administration has rejected contributions to the country’s largest climate study, proposed cuts to grants for national parks addressing climate change, and unveiled a budget that would significantly reduce climate science funding at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense.

Researchers and lawmakers expressed their disapproval of this decision on Thursday.

Jesse M. Keenan, an associate professor and director of climate change and urbanism at Tulane University in New Orleans, stated that halting data collection will hinder federal and state governments in making informed budgetary and infrastructure investment decisions.

“It’s illogical,” he remarked. Without a comprehensive database, “the U.S. government will be blind to the financial impacts of extreme weather and climate change.”

In comments on Bluesky, Senator Ed Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, described this move as “anti-science, anti-secure, and anti-American.”

Virginia Iglesias, a climate researcher at the University of Colorado, emphasized that few organizations can replicate the unique information provided by this database. “This represents one of the most consistent and trustworthy records of climate-related economic losses in the nation,” she said. “The database’s strength lies in its reliability.”

The so-called billion-dollar disasters—those with costs exceeding ten digits—are on the rise. In the 1980s, there were, on average, three such events annually, adjusted for inflation. By contrast, between 2020 and 2024, the average rose to 23 per year.

Since 1980, the U.S. has experienced at least 403 of these incidents. Last year, there were 27, and this year is projected to see the second-highest number (28 events).

Last year’s incidents included Hurricane Helen and Milton, which together resulted in approximately $113 billion in damages and over 250 fatalities in Colorado. Additionally, drought conditions that year caused around $3 billion in damages and claimed more than 100 lives nationwide.

NOAA’s National Environmental Information Center plans to cease tracking these billion-dollar disasters as priorities, statutory mandates, and staffing change, according to an email from the agency.

When asked whether NOAA or another branch of the federal agency would continue to publicly report data on such disasters, the agency did not respond. The communication indicated that archived data from 1980 to 2024 would be available, but incidences from 2025, such as the recent wildfires in Los Angeles, will not be monitored or published.

“We can’t address problems that we don’t measure,” noted Erinsikorsky, director of the Climate Security Centre. “Without information regarding the costs of these disasters, Americans and Congress will remain unaware of the risks posed by climate change to our nation.”

Sikorsky highlighted that other agencies may struggle to replicate this data collection as it involves proprietary insurance information that companies are reluctant to share. “It’s a remarkably unique contribution.”

Source: www.nytimes.com

Former National Weather Service Director Speaks Out Against Proposed Cuts

Posted on May 6, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Five former directors of the National Weather Service have expressed serious concerns that further staffing reductions within the agency could result in unnecessary fatalities during extreme weather events such as tornadoes, wildfires, and hurricanes.

“Our greatest fear is that with the weather offices being severely understaffed, lives that could have been saved will sadly be lost. This is a shared nightmare among those at the forefront of forecasting and the communities who depend on their expertise,” they stated. An open letter was published on Friday.

The former director, who served from 1988 to 2022, noted that staffing levels at the Weather Service decreased by over 10% during critical forecasting periods due to budget cuts from the Trump administration and staffing reductions from agency consolidations.

They also voiced concerns regarding the budget proposal from the Trump administration for the upcoming fiscal year, highlighting an outlined Letter to Congress that recommended a $1.52 billion reduction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the Meteorological Service.

“The NWS workforce is facing intolerable challenges to maintain current service standards,” they remarked. “Some forecast offices are inadequately staffed and may have to resort to limited part-time services.”

Curious about how NWS staffing cuts could lead meteorologists to miss tornado detections? Tune in to Harry Jackson’s report on NBC News Now, airing today at 5pm EST.

Their objections, along with NOAA’s stance on funding cuts at the Weather Bureau, underline the political pressures agencies face as governments aim to downsize. Meteorologists have indicated that reduced staffing has resulted in less effective forecasting.

The letter shared with journalists by a spokesperson and circulated on social media was co-signed by directors from the Elephant Bureau, including Louis Uckellini, Jack Hayes, and Brig Gen. DL Johnson of the US Air Force, alongside Brig. Gen. John J. Kelly Jr. and Colonel Joe from the US Air Force.

Louis Uccelini at a press briefing in Maryland in 2016.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

They remarked: “Having served as a director of the National Weather Service, I understand firsthand the requirements for delivering accurate forecasts. I stand united against further staffing and resource cuts in the NWS and am deeply worried about NOAA’s long-term health.”

In a statement, the weather service indicated it would refrain from discussing internal personnel matters but acknowledged the ongoing staffing challenges.

“We remain committed to providing weather information, forecasts, and warnings in line with our public safety mission,” the statement read. “The National Weather Service is adjusting some services by implementing temporary staffing changes at local forecast offices nationwide to better meet the needs of our citizens, partners, and stakeholders.”

The White House did not respond to requests for comment.

Recent forecasts for Nebraska amid inclement weather have heightened concerns regarding staffing cuts and prompted calls for Congressional Republicans to take action.

On April 17, as thunderstorms loomed over Iowa and Nebraska, the Valley, Nebraska forecast office near Omaha attempted to launch a special weather balloon at 3 PM to evaluate storm risks, but staffing reductions halted the planned 7 PM launch.

The Valley office was among more than 10 locations where weather services announced the cancellation of balloon launches due to insufficient staffing.

An internal meteorologist noted that a timely balloon launch at 7 PM could have significantly aided in identifying tornado risks sooner. The storm, which posed a threat to the data from the 3 PM balloon, ultimately spawned six tornadoes across eastern Nebraska.

Following the storm, Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) took action to address the situation. During a press conference on April 25, documented by Wowt—a local NBC station in Omaha—he revealed that staffing in the Valley office had decreased from 13 forecasters to just eight.

After bringing this issue to light, Flood reported receiving a call from the White House acknowledging that changes were indeed necessary. Shortly thereafter, the Weather Bureau dispatched two forecasters for temporary assignments to the Valley office.

“We have implemented policy adjustments throughout the country. These temporary assignments can now be utilized by forecasters to address staffing shortages at various weather stations,” Flood mentioned, adding that these measures would become permanent, allowing the Weather Bureau to hire additional staff.

He expressed intentions to propose legislation classifying forecasters as public safety officials, a designation likely to exempt them from federal procurement and staffing cut policies.

“They are undeniably public safety personnel, and it is imperative we act on this in Congress,” Flood declared.

Rick Spinrad, former NOAA administrator for President Joe Biden, pointed out that the Weather Service should not be viewed as a target for budget cuts.

“Weather services cost every American just a cent per day,” Spinrad stated.

The staffing reductions have implications extending beyond just weather balloon launches. Last month, the Weather Services office in Sacramento, California, informed local media partners of its decision to cut overnight staffing and cease responding to public inquiries.

On Friday, one former manager expressed concern that further cuts might exacerbate stress levels in overnight staffing.

“The worst-case scenario is if a severe storm develops after midnight,” he cautioned, adding that decisions made overnight by the Weather Bureau and local emergency teams could be critical for issuing tornado warnings. “There are now significant gaps in the entire weather service, which is a troubling reality.”

Source: www.nbcnews.com

One of the World’s Biggest Weather Buzzwords Gains Traction

Posted on May 3, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

For residents of the West Coast, the weather event known as the atmospheric river, stretching from San Diego to Vancouver, can deliver winter-like conditions similar to those in Boston, with heavy rain and snowfall.

Much like the storms that affect the East Coast, the term “Atmospheric River” can often feel trendy. While it may resonate more with those walking the streets of San Francisco than just plain “heavy rain,” it precisely describes moisture-laden storms in the Pacific Ocean that release precipitation upon hitting the mountain ranges in Washington, Oregon, and California.

Yet, these plumes of highly humid air driven by strong winds are not exclusive to the West Coast. They can occur globally, and recently, meteorologists and scientists are starting to apply this term to storms occurring east of the Rocky Mountains. This spring, a series of heavy rains in the central and southern United States resulted in fatal floods, with Accuweather identifying the unusual weather phenomenon as an Atmospheric River. CNN did as well.

Some researchers are hopeful that the term will gain wider acceptance, although not all meteorologists, including those at the National Weather Service, are on board. The crux of the debate revolves around how forecasts will describe the conditions for the day.

The Atmospheric River can stretch up to 2,000 miles.

These weather systems typically form over oceans in tropical and subtropical regions, where water vapor evaporates and coalesces into extensive streams of steam that travel through the lower atmosphere towards the poles. Averaging around 500 miles wide and extending up to 1,000 miles, while many weak atmospheric rivers bring beneficial precipitation, stronger ones can lead to severe rainfall, causing flooding, landslides, and significant destruction.

Rain is not the only aspect; just as squeezing a wet sponge releases water, atmospheric rivers require a mechanism to shed rain and snow. As they ascend, the water vapor cools, condenses, and ultimately falls as precipitation.

On the West Coast, this process repeats from late fall to early spring, facilitated by mountain ranges such as the Cascade and Sierra Nevada, which provide the necessary lift. Atmospheric rivers from the Pacific Ocean collide with these mountains, forcing the water vapor upward where it turns into liquid.

The situation is more complex in other regions, where upward lift usually arises from less defined and unpredictable atmospheric instability rather than geographical features. In early April, for example, cold air descending from the north pushed under the Atmospheric River originating from the bay, elevating the moist air.

“When warm air is forced up to a higher elevation than its surroundings, it can rapidly ascend, leading to severe thunderstorms,” explained Travis O’Brien, an assistant professor at Indiana University and co-author of a noteworthy paper. This study garnered attention regarding Atmospheric Rivers impacting the Midwest and East Coast.

Regions like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas experienced extreme flooding, with rainfall exceeding 15 inches in some areas.

So, why is it called that?

Atmospheric rivers have existed for ages; however, scientists began recognizing and naming them in the mid-1970s to 1980s with advancements in satellite technology, specifically the global operating environment satellite known as GOES, developed by NASA and administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Clifford Masa, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington, noted, “Prior to that, we didn’t discuss it much.”

Advancements in satellite technology allowed researchers and meteorologists to visualize atmospheric rivers, leading to more discussions and the formal naming of the phenomenon.

The term “Atmospheric River” was introduced in the 1990s by two scholars at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: meteorologist Reginald E. Newell and research scientist Yong Zhu. They originally referred to it as Tropospheric River, named after the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere where most weather phenomena occur. It later evolved into “Atmospheric River,” as it was noted that these rivers “carry about the same amount of water as the Amazon.”

Is the terminology overused? Sometimes.

Though the term became more prominent in the 2010s to 2020s, it primarily gained traction on the West Coast, as scientists focused on and studied atmospheric rivers. Numerous research papers identified them as a key source of rain and snow across California, Oregon, and Washington, as well as major contributors to flooding events. One notable occurrence was a series of nine atmospheric rivers that inundated California in December 2022 and January 2023, resulting in widespread flooding and alleviating drought conditions.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, highlighted that interest in atmospheric rivers tends to peak during California’s exceptionally wet storm seasons. While he appreciates the label, he also points out its potential misuse, stating that excessive use can mislead the public if distinctions between different atmospheric river intensities are not made.

“The primary misconception is that every atmospheric river is an extreme and destructive event, which is not accurate,” Swain explained.

A classification system for atmospheric rivers was introduced in 2019 to clarify this confusion. Dr. Marty Ralph, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and the Center for Extreme Weather and Water in the West, spearheaded the development of this classification system, which has been applied in various global regions including the Arctic and Antarctic. He has been a prominent advocate for researching and popularizing the term atmospheric river, particularly in California, authoring numerous papers on the topic.

“It was Marty Ralph who convened the scientific community around the concept of Atmospheric Rivers as a topic deserving of attention, and his efforts have implicitly tied this concept to the West Coast, despite the original studies being global in scope,” Dr. O’Brien remarked.

This association may mislead the public as daily forecasts from West Coast offices frequently discuss atmospheric rivers, whereas offices in other regions may not.

“In the Midwest and Southeast, we typically don’t use that terminology,” stated Jimmy Barham, lead meteorologist with the Arkansas Meteorological Service. “We simply refer to it as higher-level moisture.”

The focus on the West Coast also means that atmospheric rivers are studied less frequently in other regions, where hurricanes and summer thunderstorms also contribute significantly to rainfall and draw considerable attention.

Dr. Ralph aspires for expanded research to reach the East Coast, asserting, “Even the East Coast often experiences strong, potentially impactful atmospheric rivers.”

Source: www.nytimes.com

China’s renewable energy boom at risk of disruption from extreme weather

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

The three Gorge dams in China are the main sources of hydroelectric power generation

costfoto/nurphoto/shutterstock

China’s vast electric grids cause more fuss than any other country with renewable energy, but the system is also vulnerable to electricity shortages caused by adverse weather conditions. The need to ensure reliable power supply could encourage Chinese governments to use more coal-fired power plants.

China’s energy systems are rapidly becoming cleaner, setting new records for wind power and solar energy generation almost every month. The country’s overall greenhouse gas emissions – the highest emissions in the world are expected to peak soon and begin to decline. Wind, solar and hydroelectric power currently account for about half of China’s generation capacity, and is expected to increase to almost 90% by 2060, when the country promised to reach “carbon neutrality.”

This increasingly reliance on renewables means that the country’s electricity system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to changes in weather. Intermittent winds and sun can be replenished by more stable hydropower produced by huge hydroelectric dams enriched in southern China. But what happens when the wind and sun slump coincides with drought?

Jinjiang Shen Darian Institute of Technology in China and his colleagues modeled how power generation on increasingly renewable grids corresponds to these “extreme weather” years. They estimated how future mixing of wind, solar and hydropower behaves under the most favourable weather conditions seen in the past.

They found that future grids are much more sensitive to weather changes than they are today. In a very unfavourable year, 2060, it could reduce the amount of generation capacity by 12% compared to today’s grid, leading to a power shortage. In 2030, in the most extreme cases, they found that this leads to over 400 hours of blackout times, a power shortage of nearly 4% of total energy demand. “That’s not a number that everyone can ignore.” Li Shuo At the Institute of Policy Studies in Asia Association, Washington, DC.

In addition to the overall lack of force, drought could specifically limit the amount of hydroelectric power available to smooth out irregular winds and solar generation. This could also lead to a shortage of electricity. “It is essential to equip a suitable proportion of stable power sources that are less susceptible to weather factors to avoid large-scale, large-scale power shortages,” the researchers wrote in their paper.

One way to help is to run excess electricity more efficiently across states. By expanding the transmission infrastructure, researchers found that it could eliminate the risk of power shortages on today’s grids and reduce half of the risk by 2060. Adding new energy storage in tens of millions of kilowatts, whether using batteries or other methods, would also be alleviated against hydroelectric droughts.

According to Li Shuo, any additional storage amounts China needs to be added to achieve carbon neutrality “becomes an astronomical number.”

These changes are difficult, but they add that many storage is viable given the enormous amount of batteries already produced in China. Lauri Myllyvirta At the Finland Energy and Clean Air Research Centre. He says the country is also building 190 gigawatts of pumped hydropower storage. This says that it can provide long-term energy storage by using surplus electricity to pump water over the dam and releasing it when more electricity is needed.

But so far, the electricity shortage has primarily spurred the Chinese government to build more coal-fired power plants. For example, in 2021 and 2022, hydroelectric droughts and heat waves increased enough electricity demand to cause serious power outages; Continuous expansion of coal. Record hydropower generation in 2023 resulted in record time for emissions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said coal would peak this year, but he has entrenched political support for power sources. “If China is struggling with another round of these episodes, more coal-fired power plants shouldn’t be the answer,” says Li Shuo. “It’s difficult to abolish coal. China loves coal.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

AI Predicts Weather Instantly Without a Supercomputer

Posted on March 22, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Thunderstorms in Indonesia seen from the International Space Station

NASA EARTH OBSERVATORATORY / INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION (ISS)

Its creators claim that AI weather programs running for a second on the desktop can match the accuracy of traditional predictions that take hours or days on a powerful supercomputer.

Weather forecasts rely on physics-based models that extrapolate from observations made using satellites, balloons and weather stations since the 1950s. However, these calculations, known as numerical weather forecasts (NWPs), are highly concentrated and rely on vast, expensive, energy-hungry supercomputers.

In recent years, researchers have tried to streamline this process by applying AI. Last year, Google Scientists created an AI tool that could replace a small chunk of complex code in each cell of a weather model, dramatically reducing computer power. DeepMind later went further by doing this, using AI to replace the entire prediction. This approach is adopted by European Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The tool has been launched Last month it was called the Artificial Intelligence Prediction System.

However, this gradual expansion of the role of AI in weather forecasting has not replaced the calculation of all traditional figures – the new model created by Richard Turner Cambridge University and his colleagues are looking for change.

Turner says that previous work was limited to prediction and passed a step called initialization. There, data from satellites, balloons and weather stations around the world is collated, washed, manipulated and integrated into an organized grid where predictions can begin. “It’s actually half the computational resource,” Turner says.

The researchers created a model called Aardvark Weather. This replaces both the prediction and initialization stages for the first time. It uses only 10% of the input data that existing systems make, but achieves results comparable to the latest NWP predictions. Turner and his colleagues report in a study assessing the method.

Generating a perfect prediction that takes hours or days on a powerful NWP prediction supercomputer can be done in about a second on a single desktop computer using Aardvark.

However, Aardvark uses a grid model of the Earth’s surface with a square cell of 1.5 degrees, while ECMWF’s ERA5 model uses a grid with cells. 0.3 degrees smaller. This means that Aardvark’s model is too rough to pick up complex and unexpected weather patterns, David Schultz At the University of Manchester, UK.

“There are a lot of unresolved things that could blow up predictions,” Schultz says. “They don’t represent any extremes at all. They can’t solve it on this scale.”

Turner argues that Aardvark can actually beat some existing models. However, he acknowledges that AI models like him also rely entirely on these physics-based models. “It’s absolutely not working just to steal training data and train with observational data,” he says. “We tried to do that and did a complete modelless physics, but it didn’t work.”

He believes the future of weather forecasting could be scientists working on more accurate physics-based models. This is used to train AI models that replicate output faster and with less hardware. Some are even more optimistic about the AI outlook.

Nikita Gouryanov At Oxford University, we believe that AI will eventually be able to produce weather forecasts that actually exceed NWP. They are trained solely on observational and historical weather data, and produce accurate predictions that are completely independent of the NWP, he says. “It’s a matter of scale, but also a matter of smartness. You have to be smart about how you deliver data and how you build the structure of a neural network.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Reported advancements in AI-driven weather forecasting | Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Posted on March 20, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

With the use of a new AI weather forecast approach, a single researcher working on desktop computers can deliver precise weather forecasts that are significantly faster and require much less computing power compared to traditional systems.

Traditional weather forecasting methods involve multiple time-consuming stages that rely on supercomputers and teams of experts. Aardvark Weather offers a more efficient solution by training AI on raw data collected from various sources worldwide.

This innovative approach, detailed in a publication by researchers from the University of Cambridge, Alan Turing Institute, Microsoft Research, and ECMWF, holds the potential to enhance forecast speed, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness.

Richard Turner, a machine learning professor at Cambridge University, envisions the use of this technology for creating tailored forecasts for specific industries and regions, such as predicting agricultural conditions in Africa or wind speeds for European renewable energy companies.

Members of New South Wales Emergency Services will inspect the advancement of the tropical cyclone Alfred on March 5, 2025 at a weather satellite view in Sydney, Australia. Photo: Bianca de Mart/Reuters

Unlike traditional forecasting methods that rely on extensive manual work and lengthy processing times, this new approach streamlines the prediction process, offering potentially more accurate and extended forecasts.

According to Dr. Scott Hosking from the Alan Turing Institute, this breakthrough can democratize weather forecasting by making advanced technologies accessible to developing countries and aiding decision-makers, emergency planners, and industries that rely on precise weather information.

Dr. Anna Allen, the lead author of the Cambridge University research, believes that these findings could revolutionize predictions for various climate-related events like hurricanes, wildfires, and air quality.

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Drawing on recent advancements by tech giants like Huawei, Google, and Microsoft, Aardvark aims to revolutionize weather forecasting by leveraging AI to accelerate predictions. The system has already shown promising results, outperforming existing forecast models in certain aspects.

Source: www.theguardian.com

NOAA cancels monthly calls for climate and weather updates

Posted on March 14, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

Staff cuts have impacted work at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Kristoffer Tripplaar / Alamy

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says it will “stop” monthly calls to update reporters on seasonal weather forecasts and global climate conditions.

A NOAA spokesman says recent cuts, resignation and resignation under President Donald Trump's control have led to staffing issues that have led to agents “no longer able to support them.” But they say every month Report It will be edited and continued to be published by the National Center for Environmental Information, operated by NOAA.

He says another reason the agency is closing calls could be due to fear of employees violating the new administration by talking about climate change. Tom Di RivatoNOAA's genius scientist and public relations specialist who was fired during widespread cuts in February. “They don't want to get stuck between telling the truth and then riding on the wrong side of a political appointee,” he says.

During the monthly call, NOAA scientists will provide you with updates on a variety of predictions and measurements the agency has created. In addition to information on global land and ocean temperatures, the description includes information on seasonal weather forecasts and droughts in the United States. These calls also give reporters the opportunity to ask questions to help them better understand new information.

In past briefings, researchers openly discussed the role of human-induced climate change in driving at record high temperatures. But last month's call – first held under the new administration – NOAA researchers declined to mention climate change when discussing record global temperatures in January. The call ended later New Scientist We asked the researchers directly to see what role climate change played at high temperatures.

Di Liberto says the agency has not explicitly directed researchers, let alone climate change. However, he knows from his current contact with staff there is an atmosphere of fear about saying the wrong thing.

“It's a fear of being cut, but I'm also afraid that the work they're doing is trying to help people, or that they're being told they can't say what they can say based on science,” he says.

Since January, the administration has fired almost 1,000 people from government agencies, and hundreds more have resigned. The government is It reportedly plans to cut more than 1,000 employeesone-tenth of the agency's workforce.

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Source: www.newscientist.com

How NOAA’s reduction in cutting methods impacts weather forecasting reliability

Posted on March 8, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

A devastating tornado near Minden, Iowa in April 2024

Jonah Lange/Getty Images

Wide range of firing and staffing changes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could reduce the reliability of the country's weather forecasts, according to several researchers and the American Meteorological Association.

“The consequences for Americans will be vastly broad, including increasing vulnerability to dangerous weather,” the organization states: statement.

More than 880 NOAA employees have been fired under President Donald Trump's control. statement From US Senator Maria Cantwell. This includes researchers working to improve hurricane predictions and build next-generation weather models, as well as more than 200 people within the National Weather Service, part of NOAA. According to two former NOAA employees, another 500 people accepted an offer to resign from their previous “Folk in the Road” offer, and shouted more for the agency.

A NOAA spokesman declined to discuss shootings and staffing changes. They said the agency will “continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings based on our public safety mission.” However, external researchers and former NOAA employees say the cuts could reduce the quality of the agency's weather forecasts.

The change states, “it has a clear cascade effect that affects predictions, even what people are watching on the phone via third parties.” Kari Bowen University of Colorado at Boulder University.

Cuts can quickly affect alerts about extreme weather like tornadoes and hurricanes, and in the long run, even commercial weather apps rely on modeling from NOAA, allowing general weather reports to be more accurate. Below are four ways experts can predict a shooting storm, and four ways that resignation can affect weather forecasts.

Delayed Tornado Warning

National Weather Service operates a network of 122 weather forecasting offices nationwide. At least 16 offices in the central part of the country's prone to tornadoes are currently understaffed. William Galls At Iowa State University. A former NOAA employee said that over 12 offices in the central region have resigned from head meteorologists. And then the harsh weather season begins in the region.

Nearby offices may be able to help understaffed sites track and alert tornadoes, but confusion can lead to delays. “There's a good chance there's a lot of mistakes,” Gallus says.

Such delays were evident last year when a tornado evacuated local forecast offices in Iowa, Galls said. An adjacent station intervened to track the storm. But amidst the chaos, some residents received five minutes of warning that the tornado was heading their path, rather than the minimum 15 minutes that the forecaster aims to provide. In an emergency, these lost times can make a difference whether they can reach safely.

I don't know when a hurricane suddenly becomes stronger

Some employees fired from NOAA were working to improve hurricane forecasts. In particular, we estimate the time when the situation will rapidly intensify. Rapid strengthening can make hurricanes even more dangerous by reducing the time people prepare. However, these events are well known for predicting.

Hurricane modelers at NOAA and other agencies have made great strides in predicting rapid strengthening in recent years, says Brian Tan At Albany University in New York. This is due to improved modeling, data collection and data integration efforts by NOAA researchers. Currently, personnel delivery “destabilizes the entire process of improving hurricane track and intensity prediction,” he says.

“It will be slower to promote the improvements we have been expecting to improve hurricane forecasts over the past 30 years.” Andy Hazeltonworking on improving NOAA's hurricane forecasts before being fired from its position at the agency's environmental modelling centre last week. He says several people have been fired from a group of “Hurricane Hunters” that fly planes into the storm to collect data, including two flight supervisors.

Unreliable weather data

Accurate weather forecasts rely on a continuous stream of information about real-time conditions around the world, collected from marine buoys, satellites, radars and other sensors. Data will then be fed into global weather models that underlie both public and private forecasts. Much of the world's data and modeling is provided by NOAA.

Staff reductions could impact these critical data collection efforts and would reduce the quality of forecasts. In fact, some locals Weather Forecast Center Due to a lack of staff, regular balloon launches have already been suspended.

“All of these observation networks are maintained and run by people.” Emily Becker At the University of Miami in Florida. “And we've already lost a lot of people from those teams. That's going to be an aggregate effect.”

Improvements to future weather forecasts have stopped

At least eight people, a quarter of the staff, were fired from the Environmental Modeling Center. This is responsible for verifying weather data and integrating it into a model that is more or less underlying all predictions, says Hazelton. “What is the temperature this weekend?” and everything is “Are there any tornadoes?”

Personnel delivery at the Environmental Modeling Center will slow research to improve current global weather models, he says. Additionally, 10 people have been fired from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute, which researchers were building. Next Generation Global weather and climate models.

Such reductions are “very harmful” to efforts to make forecasts more reliable, Gallus says. He says that almost every improvement in forecasts over the past decades depends on improvements in modeling. “If we're losing a ton of researchers working on them, you're basically saying my predictions will never get better.”

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Source: www.newscientist.com

Laid off NOAA employees warn of potential impact on weather forecasts and safety measures

Posted on March 4, 2025 by Igor Mitreski

A scientist with a Ph.D. issues tsunami alerts and serves as a Hurricane Hunting Flight Director. Researchers investigate communities that are prone to flooding during storms.

They were part of over 600 workers who were laid off last week by the Trump administration, resulting in around a 5% reduction in the workforce of the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Kayla Besong, a physical scientist at the Tsunami Warning Center, was one of the affected employees. She played a key role in the safety monitoring team, which was reduced from 12 members to 11. She was responsible for programming a system that assessed the risk to the U.S. coastline and issued alerts accordingly.

The layoffs have raised concerns about the impact on public safety programs and the ability to deal with the increasing frequency of weather disasters due to climate change. Last year alone, NOAA recorded a $27 billion disaster that resulted in 568 deaths in the U.S., marking the second-highest death toll since 1980, accounting for inflation.

Meteorologists are facing challenges and criticism, despite their improving accuracy in predicting weather events. The Trump administration’s decision to cut jobs at NOAA has been met with protests and legal challenges. Experts warn that these cuts threaten progress and could hinder crucial scientific advancements.

NOAA has declined to comment on the layoffs, emphasizing its commitment to providing timely information and resources to the public. Former agency officials argue that the cuts jeopardize public safety, especially during weather emergencies.

Congressional Democrats have also opposed the layoffs, citing the impact on public safety and the ability to provide accurate weather forecasts. The cuts have affected essential roles, such as hurricane modeling specialists and flight directors, who play a vital role in predicting and responding to severe weather events.

The reduction in NOAA’s workforce has sparked concerns about the agency’s ability to effectively respond to upcoming weather seasons, potentially putting lives at risk and undermining public safety efforts.

Source: www.nbcnews.com